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Results of 10,000 simulations of the Lakers vs. Magic

By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com

May 31st, 2009

Kobe Bryant gets his fourth overall and his first "Shaqless" ring as the Lakers take out the Eastern Conference champion Orlando Magic en route to the franchise's 15th NBA title. We simulated the 2009 NBA Finals between LA and Orlando 10,000 times in order to determine the likelihood of either team winning it all. After losing to the Boston Celtics in six games last season (as we predicted), the Lakers return to the Finals and this time come out on top winning the series 61.7% of the time. The most common occurrence is a six game series, where Los Angeles wins it all in its return home after three games in Orlando.

Front-court depth and perimeter defense are the keys to the Lakers' victory. During the regular season, Los Angeles was third in the league in opponent three-point percentage (34.5%) and in offensive rebounding percentage (29.4%). With Andrew Bynum healthy and increased defensive intensity from Kobe Bryant, Trevor Ariza, Derek Fisher and others, the Lakers have been even tougher on opponents in the playoffs, allowing teams to hit just 31.3% of their threes and just 42.9% of their shots overall. Dwight Howard is clearly the best rebounder in the series, but the Lakers have great rebounders at every position but point guard, while the Magic tend to forsake offensive rebounding opportunities for open perimeter shots. Maximizing offensive touches with second chance points and limiting turnovers as well as utilizing the team's length to impact the Magic's outside shooting will earn the Lakers the victory.

As is evident below, we had to make some assumptions regarding playoff rosters. Despite recent rumors, we do not expect Orlando's Jameer Nelson to come back for the Finals and otherwise believe that the rosters, depth charts and playing time for both teams will be similar to the conference finals. That being said, Nelson would not change the outcome much. His presence in a platoon with Rafer Alston could improve the Magic's chances of winning the series from 38.3% to 41.1% where the most likely outcome is still a six game series won by LA.

What follows is an example NBA Finals based on our most common result. It includes boxscores, play-by-play, stats and a summary for each game in the series. Click on the links after each recap to see the entire breakdown of the game.

From this site. View more here:

NBA Finals Preview From WhatIfSports.com

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GO MAGIC!

We might be the underdogs but beating up on them Lakers would be sweeter for it.

I was at the arena for Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals when the Magic made LeBron cry like a baby...

WOOTEWOO!

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A win is a win no matter what it takes.

Ben Raines

Would that include cheating? Not saying that happened but if that was what it takes you would be okay with that? :P

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Game 3 tonight. Magic will come out tough and if they start hitting their 3's then it will be more tough for my boys. I'm just happy they missed their last shot before OT. I just want to close them out!

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I give Orlando credit. They played really well. Their shot the lights out with an amazing field goal percentage. Good job to the Magic :)

See what I mean? That's the normal Magic play right there! I've been saying this ever since play-offs started. If there's anybody who can beat the Cavs and the Lakers, it's the MAGIC!

The past 2 games were choke-jobs by the Magic. Especially Game 1. I mean, Alston going 1 for 7 on the paint? And Howard getting zilch? That's CRAZY. I mean, Howard can be stopped, but it takes at least 2 guys to stop him - which leaves the 3-point line open! When they play their normal game - like last night - it is almost impossible to stop them. But, they're a young team - playing against the Black Mamba. Experience really counts in high pressure games. As evidenced by the number of times Kobe got easy fouls out of Lewis jumping in his face.

So yeah, another win coming up. I say MAGIC in 7 games. Yeppers.

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We need to hit our free throws and step up on D. Pau only had 3 boards the whole game. What's that about? I'll accept last game's loss but be ready to not shoot as well as you did (rediculous 75% first half shooting!) That was awesome for them but will not happen again. Bring on Game 4!

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One of Fish's clutch 3's tonight! Do u know what that is Pammy? Fisher forced overtime with a 3-pointer with 4.6 seconds left in regulation and then drilled another one with 31.3 seconds to go in overtime as the Los Angeles Lakers outlasted the Orlando Magic 99-91 in Game 4 on Thursday night to open a 3-1 lead in the NBA finals.

Edited by Dr T
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One of Fish's clutch 3's tonight! Do u know what that is Pammy? Fisher forced overtime with a 3-pointer with 4.6 seconds left in regulation and then drilled another one with 31.3 seconds to go in overtime as the Los Angeles Lakers outlasted the Orlando Magic 99-91 in Game 4 on Thursday night to open a 3-1 lead in the NBA finals.

There is a fish playing for the Lakers?

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One of Fish's clutch 3's tonight! Do u know what that is Pammy? Fisher forced overtime with a 3-pointer with 4.6 seconds left in regulation and then drilled another one with 31.3 seconds to go in overtime as the Los Angeles Lakers outlasted the Orlando Magic 99-91 in Game 4 on Thursday night to open a 3-1 lead in the NBA finals.

Dr T, I'd say the Magic lost this game, more than the Lakers won it.

Lakers was toast until Hedo and Dwight started missing FREE THROWS! I mean, gosh, freebies and they miss it. Game should have been over at 4th QTR without a chance for last minute 3-pointers.

I also assign some blame to Van Gundy. Nelson wasn't working for the last few minutes of the 4th QTR and he kept him in. Alston was doing great, and he was left out. Lewis was not flowing well and he was kept in for a long long time. The line-up on the OT was the same slow-moving Magic. It was frustrating to watch.

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I hear u Anatess. The free throw thing was the same for us in the game we lost. :( That's how the game works sometimes. We now only need to win one more in the next three if if even goes that far. GO LAKERS!

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