Oil, what if?


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"alternative renewable energies have not yet reached the point where they are economically viable on a large scale"

The thing is, they never will be. Obama talks about making "renewable energy profitable" well based on supply and demand there is no such thing because it provides more than enough for everyone.

"But we didn't one day just outlaw horses"

Ofcourse not, and that's why this is progressively coming to be. But the biggest things holding it back are the need to compete for market share with the existing energy companies.

It doesn't matter how slowly and neatly we transition to renewable energy, the reality is that it will never be profitable in the long term - perhaps from the outset (i.e., cyclical consumption from the production and installation of these technologies) but not once they're active and in use on an official scale.

These things (along with nano-technology and continuing automation) will ultimately destroy a scarcity-driven economy. No matter how slow we do it.

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Im sure this has been asked a million times, but what would happen if oil suddenly dried up. I dont mean the long term effects, as obviously we would eventually come up with new ways to live without oil, but what about the short term effects of this?

Think about it like this. An announcer on TV has just informed us that the oil reserve will run out in 1 month. After this, there will be no oil on earth, anywhere. Not even for military or government use.

I would assume there would be a rush to fill cars and the like, which i expect would lead to some unrest and criminality. But once its gone, its gone and this type of behaviour will be pointless, although i expect some would continue, simply for the pleasure of it.

After that, i dont know. Would it be a case of going back to the horse and cart for a time?


and what of oil of olay?? what would become of them? oh, wait....different kind of oil sorry. :)

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I think, a-train, when you take into account things such as China becoming a world 'super power' and the fact that the world's population is being projected as possibly being over 10 billion by 2050 that you can bet it wont run out -- but it wont be anywhere near abundant enough to serve the Earth's needs.

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What 'such events'? Mad Max sci-fi plotline apocalyptic B-movie events? The oil isn't going to "suddenly dry up". Who in the church is telling us to prepare for such things? All the urging I see from church leaders involve getting out of debt, being as self-reliant as possible, and storing resources against periods of hardship. I see concern about pandemic influenza and economic downturn. I don't see anyone in a leadership position forecasting the end of civilization as we know it, other than vague and nonspecific talk about living in the last days.

Could you cite your sources?

Well, since you are the one hearing from the church about such things, what are they telling us to do?

Wasnt talking about a Mad Max type situation. I was reffering simply to the things you yourself have refferanced. Sorry for any confusion. I just felt that the advice by the Prophet would also apply in this kind of situation.
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  • 2 months later...

Okay, I know this thread is old, but I'm gonna kick a hornets nest here:

What's with all the fatalistic leanings? Isn't there a promise that the earth will sustain us? Isn't it possible, even LIKELY that Christ will return before the dino-juice is gone? (I have to believe that with a purified Earth and Christ reigning supreme, new options will become known.)

I am soooooooo friggin' tired of people saying: let's inconvenience ourselves today, further increase our costs of living, and eliminate practical options - just in case the crap hits the fan in 500 years!!! Idiotic.

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Renewable energy is nothing but abundant on this planet. There are two things holding it back: lack of brains in politics, and the need to profit. Oil and other increasingly scarce fossil fuels are much more profitable to maintain than renewable energy.

This statement is more propaganda than truth. There is nothing to stop anyone from bypassing profitable energy companies to obtain their own power. The biggest problem with wind energy is reliability and consistency. We learned that generations ago when global shipping abandoned wind power sail boats for fossil fuel diesel engines – also there are no scheduled balloon flight between any two points on the planet. In addition there is no storage of wind energy to be used when an increase is needed.

As an expert in automation and robotics, two major problems of manufacturing is controlling energy costs and taxes and if inflation become a problem we can add labor that that list. I know for a fact that companies are so hungry for energy that special vents are installed in batter charging areas of fork trucks, agv’s and other battery operated transports just to recycle hydrogen gas as energy reducing measures. Some companies are locating manufacturing close to landfills to exploit methane gas to offset energy costs. Energy companies are not the only players in this game.

The Traveler

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If oil dried up overnight (with no advanced warning to get ready by finally using other energy sources) -- It would be TEOTWAWKI (the end of the world as we know it) billions would starve the 1st year as this years crop would not be able to get to market and most farms use petrolium based fertilizers and most seeds are no longer open pollinated (means you can't save the seeds to plant next year) so next years crop would never get planted, most grocery stores only have a 5 or 6 day supply of food, there would be runs on groceries and as they ran out of food there would be riots, police and fire crews would not be able to get to where they were needed, the power would go out within 1 day in most parts of the world as oil (deisel) is used either directly to generate power or indirectly in machinery to load coal into generating plants. Some areas would still have nuclear but how would the workers get to the nuclear plants? they would start shutting down as systems do not get maintenance, hydroelectric dams would fail eventually (months to years) as cooling pipes got clogged. Without power, water pumps do not work, so within a couple days most people in the 'civilized world' would have no water. When the water stops coming out of faucets the real rioting begins. Millions dead the first week, and Billions dead the first year. people roaming the countryside looking for food and water. I would guess about 80% of the worlds population would die, either through starvation or rioting or being killed for their food.

You asked if we would go back to horse and buggy-- how? where would all the horses come from? it would take decades to breed enough horses and under the above circumstances how would we feed them? besides does the average person know how to care for horses today? I don't know how to care for a horse even though my grandparents worked farms with horses - that was 100 years ago and that's just not part of the average modern mans education. We would eventually get back to it, but only after the world population dropped to perhaps about 20% of what it is right now and the world stabilized.

Would not be a pretty sight, you would see just how thin our level of civilization actually is.

Edited by mnn727
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