Mountain West Conference 2009


Moksha
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At least BYU didn't play last week. It seems to be the best way for them to stay in the top 25...

What I loved was that after Florida, Texas and Alabama, you have Cincinnati, Boise State and TCU. I have no love for BS or TCU, and could care less about Cincy, but will root for all three teams to bust the BCS this year. They won't play in the title game because of the way it is set up, but it will wreak havoc with the other BCS bowls. Isn't the national championship game the Rose Bowl this year? If so, then the Orange, Sugar, and Fiesta Bowls must be shaking in their boots right now: Big East, MW, and WAC in their precious bowls!

Gotta love college football. Even if the Cougs break your heart year after year after year...

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At least BYU didn't play last week. It seems to be the best way for them to stay in the top 25...

What I loved was that after Florida, Texas and Alabama, you have Cincinnati, Boise State and TCU. I have no love for BS or TCU, and could care less about Cincy, but will root for all three teams to bust the BCS this year. They won't play in the title game because of the way it is set up, but it will wreak havoc with the other BCS bowls. Isn't the national championship game the Rose Bowl this year? If so, then the Orange, Sugar, and Fiesta Bowls must be shaking in their boots right now: Big East, MW, and WAC in their precious bowls!

Gotta love college football. Even if the Cougs break your heart year after year after year...

The problem with this theory is that only ONE non-BCS conference team can get an automatic bid to a BCS game. The others have to be invited to a BCS game without an automatic bid. Soooooo......only one of them will get a BCS bowl bid. Cinci is in the Big East which is a BCS conference, so they're not really a buster. If they win their conference they're in. Then the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, SEC and PAC 10 each get an automatic bid.

The National Championship is not the Rose Bowl, it is simply the BCS National Championship game, although it will be held in Pasadena, which makes it easy to confuse for the Rose Bowl. The four BCS bowls are the Sugar, Orange, Rose, and Fiesta Bowls. That's 10 bids, 6 of them automatic, 4 at large. If Notre Dame finishes in the top 8 in the BCS standings, then they're guaranteed one of the at-large bids. One conference champion from Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, WAC, and Sun-Belt can get an automatic bid IF: 1. they are ranked in the top 12 in final BCS standings ....or....2. they are ranked in the top 16 in final BCS standings but ranked higher than a conference champion in one of the automatic bid conferences. BUT ONLY ONE from these conferences are guaranteed.

After that it is truly at large for either 2 or 3 remaining slots (depending on Notre Dame's fate, 2 slots remain if they're in, 3 remain if they're not). But no conference can have more than 2 teams in BCS bowls. This year, that leaves either Florida, Alabama or LSU, USC, Ohio State, Penn State, Oklahoma State, and Pittsburgh on the outside looking in. Oh yeah, and then there could be a conference champion out of nowhere that could leave yet another team on this list. For example Kansas State (Big 12 North) could beat Texas (Big 12 South) in the conference championship. K State gets an automatic bid and now Texas is competing for an at-large bid. (Ok, not likely, but it COULD happen and it has before.)

So.....as much as you'd like both TCU and Boise State to bust the BCS....it quite simply ain't gonna happen. One of them will get in if they win out, but not both. Cinci can get in by winning their conference....but oh, by the way, they could lose in their conference championship and be out too. Also, Houston (Conf USA), a very good team will not likely make it with their one-loss season to this point.

Notre Dame won't likely reach the top 8. (4 slots after automatic bids) TCU will likely overcome Boise State on strength of schedule, so they're in, Boise State's out. (3 slots remaining) Alabama and Florida will likely get the two SEC slots, one automatic and one at-large, leaving LSU on the outside looking in. (2 slots remaining). If Oregon wins the PAC 10 by winning out, USC will likely get the at-large bid. (1 remaining). That basically leaves it to the Big 10. If Iowa wins out, they're in. That leaves Ohio St. with an at-large bid. If Iowa loses, Ohio St. likely wins and Penn St. gets the at-large. (no more slots for a bunch of good teams remaining)

Of course, all this is as it stands right now and a myriad of different things could happen that change this. But still, notice by my scenario, that's leaving some pretty good Big 12 teams standing on the sidelines......sorry to be the bearer of not-so-optimistic news.....it's just reality. There will NEVER be a year where there will be more than one "BCS Buster". It's just the way it's designed.

Edited by nbblood
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TCU still has its hardest game ahead of them. If they do win, I would like to see BSU and Florida in the title game and TCU and Cincinnati in the next best bowl.

BYU won big this week and thankfully they do not have to rely solely upon another moral victory.

FYI sport buffs, BYU has never lost a moral victory.

;)

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...

Ok, so it seems I may have spoken too soon. It seems that teams across the nation just can't handle success and close out the season. With Iowa losing twice down the stretch, USC playing their way out of contention, and Oklahoma State, Pittsburgh, and Georgia Tech (probably all shoe-in BCS invitees prior to this weekend) as well as Clemson all falling this weekend, it seems the perfect conditions are now in place for both TCU and Boise State to bust into the BCS this year. This is unprecedented and may never happen again (if it happens this year). This is how I see it going into Conference Championship weekend.

Florida and Alabama are both in regardless of who wins the SEC championship. It only remains to be determined which one goes where depending on who wins. Texas is in regardless of Big 12 championship outcome. If they were to lose in that game, a second Big 12 team would get in, but not likely. Cincinnati's in as the Big East Champ (assuming they beat Pitt in Big East Championship). Ohio State is in as Big 10 Champ (can't lose in conference championship because they're in a sissy conference that doesn't dare have a conference championship and potentially lose BCS slots....another thread, sorry). Winner of Oregon/Oregon St game is in as PAC 10 champ (another sissy conference with no championship). Winner of GA Tech/Clemson is in as ACC champ. TCU is in by meeting the non-BCS conference qualifications.

Sooo. That's 8 teams for 10 slots:

Florida

Alabama

Texas

Cincinnati

Ohio State

Oregon/Oregon St.

GA Tech/Clemson

TCU

OK State blew it by losing last weekend. They're out. Pitt can now only get in by beating Cinci in the Big East Championship. They may have made it either way until this weekend's loss. The PAC 10 has been sorry and is only gonna get one team in. GA Tech could've been in win or lose before this weekend, but now they must win to get in as the conference champ. The ACC won't get anymore teams in.

The only way other teams will really disrupt this scenario to this point is if Nebraska could beat Texas in the Big 12 Championship, or if Pitt beats Cinci in the Big East Game. If both of those happened, Texas and Cinci would likely still be in and Nebraska and Pitt would get the automatic bids and that would be 10 and done. But neither of these are likely to happen.

Sooo....that takes us back to the BCS rankings. Boise State is currently 6, behind Florida, Alabama, Texas, TCU, and Cincinnati....all of whom, by this scenario are already in. So they would potentially be the highest BCS ranked team left. But hold on a minute, that doesn't necessarily mean they get a bid. The BCS committee still has to give them the invitation. Immediately behind them are Oregon and Ohio State. If Oregon wins this weekend, they're in anyway, if they lose they'd drop well down the rankings and Oregon State would be there. Ohio State is already in by this scenario. Next is Iowa. They had a great season but have been unimpressive in their last games and the status of their star QB is in question. They are, however, from a big, money-making conference. That may get them in. If not, Penn State is two spots back and would likely get the other Big 10 bid. That's NINE. GA Tech is currently 10, but if they lose to Clemson, they'll likely drop way down and the ACC won't get another team. UNLESS...the committee decides to invite VA Tech, from a bigger conference, over Boise State with a higher BCS ranking. Tough call.

But.......I see Boise State getting in over a 3-loss team. So I think they're in. Of course if Boise State loses along the way, they're out. But that's not likely to happen either.

So, here's how I see it falling out, assuming there aren't any major upsets in the Big 12 or Big East Championships:

Florida

Alabama

Texas

Cinci

Ohio State

TCU

GA Tech/Clemson

Oregon/Oregon St.

Penn ST (I think they'll get the bid over Iowa despite BCS ranks)

Boise ST

Yes, thanks to OK State, Pitt, USC, and GA Tech being unable to handle success, it looks as though both TCU and Boise State may get in. Of course, if the committee decides to hand bids to bigger, higher profit conferences anyway, all this discussion is for naught anyway. Oh well, it's the way I see it happening right now. Now watch Nebraska beat Texas in the Big 12 game......lol. Of course that may put TCU in the National Championship Game.

Edited by nbblood
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  • 1 month later...

It's really great that the Mountain West is 4-0 in this year's bowl wins going into tonight's TCU - Boise State game in the BCS Fiesta bowl.

Both are undefeated teams. Will the Mountain West pull off its fifth post season bowl win?

Stay tuned tonight at 8PM Eastern Standard Time.

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