Weather "Weirding" 2012 - Drought in US?

[lds2]

The weather is really weird out there the last few days. Really hot, really windy and the dust is blowing to the point where you can't see my house if you are across the street.

For the past few years there have been major droughts all over the world. It seems the weather patterns form and don't move for a very long time. I am told that is what is happening right now in Utah (major temps and wind but no rain) as well as other states.

In the Mid-West they say they "haven't seen it this dry this early" ever...I will look to see what other people are saying...but having watched the drought monitor for years this year looks particularly GRIM considering we are still in June and it looks this severe already.

Here is a government source that says that the drought is expected to either continue or increase for the forseeable future...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/season_drought.gif

Here's some other weirdness...I'm sure there is much more, these are the only ones I saved...

February...

Afghanistan - More than 20 children have recently died due to the cold weather in Kabul which the Afghan capital has been experiencing its worst cold-snap and heaviest snows in at least 15 years

Afghanistan hit with heaviest snows in 15 years- 20 children die in cold snap | The Extinction Protocol: 2012 and beyond

Europe - the death toll from bitter cold across the continent rose to at least 460. As it has every day for nearly two weeks, the brutal cold claimed lives in several countries and killed dozens more in weather-related accidents.

http://news.yahoo.com/europes-main-waterway-ices-deeper-chill-feared-155038639.html

March - ALL RECORD BREAKING HEAT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Last month came in like a lamb and stayed that way, contributing to the warmest March for the contiguous United States since modern record-keeping began in 1895, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said on Monday...This year's balmy March was part of a record-warm winter. The first three months of 2012 broke high-temperature records for the contiguous United States, with an average temperature of 42.0 degrees F (5.5 degrees C), which was 6 degrees F (3.3 degrees C) above the long-term average.

March brought record warmth to continental U.S. - Chicago Tribune

April has Weirdness as well...

India - Sugar output effected because of dry weather, still will export this year

Sugar Output in India to Decline on Drought in Some Areas - Businessweek

Brazil/Argentina - WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Drought in major soybean producers Brazil and Argentina cut their production more deeply than expected

U.S. cuts Latam soy estimate due drought, prices rise - Chicago Tribune

Southeast US - A long-term drought in parts of the Southeast, especially in Florida, has reached severe levels as measured by the Climate Prediction Center's Palmer Index.

Florida Drought Fuels Wildfires

UK drought in 22nd month -

U.K. Drought in 22nd Month Forces Water Restrictions - Businessweek

China Drought 2012: Three-Year-Long Dry Spell Spreads To Southwest

I didn't pay attention much in May...

Edited November 4, 2012 by lds2

[Vort]

Global climate change has been going on for at least 14,000 years, since the end of the last ice age. The idea that it's a thoroughly modern phenomenon is ignorant.

Note that "global warming", the buzzword that was all the rage just a few years ago, has now quietly been replaced (or attempted to be replaced) by the more catchall "global climate change". Hey, unless the weather stays exactly the same from year to year -- which of course it never does -- one can always claim "global climate change".

[applepansy]

Where are we discussing this? here or the other thread?

Is this about this years dry areas or is this about global warming?

If its about global warming aka global climate change. I'm with Vort on this. I saw an article on MSN a few days ago about the scientist who first talked about global warming. He said they didn't know enough back then. The tone of the article sounded like he regretted putting his name behind this.

[lds2]

Not all drought...Florida is wishing they had a bit more at this point...the preseason forecast was to have just 11 named storms this tropical storm season in the Atlantic but they already have 2 and the season goes through November as we are supposed to be trending towards "El Nino" conditions. But in Florida tropical storm Debby is...

Practically parked off Florida's Gulf Coast since the weekend, Tropical Storm Debby raked the Tampa Bay area with high wind and heavy rain Monday in a drenching that could top 2 feet over the next few days and trigger widespread flooding.

Tropical Storm Debby soaks Florida's Gulf Coast - Nation Wires - MiamiHerald.com

[lds2]

Global climate change has been going on for at least 14,000 years, since the end of the last ice age. The idea that it's a thoroughly modern phenomenon is ignorant.

Note that "global warming", the buzzword that was all the rage just a few years ago, has now quietly been replaced (or attempted to be replaced) by the more catchall "global climate change". Hey, unless the weather stays exactly the same from year to year -- which of course it never does -- one can always claim "global climate change".

I totally agree, I don't believe in global warming for the reasons given either.

But weather weirding seems very real right about now. I look for RECORD BREAKING when it comes to weather. There has been 100-500 year record breaking weather in various areas all over the world in the past few years and they seem to be increasing in regularity and duration because of these systems that just STOP and don't hardly move!!! That is not normal according to what I have researched.

Also the severity of some weather issues seems to be increasing...like last year it was just Texas that had a long standing drought, now it is many more states involved. When the Midwest is involved and the West that is something to be concerned about. Then major flooding in the South. Where else is there to grow crops and whether we like it or not we are the "bread basket" for the world. (Yay, Northern states and Canada, hope they can grow enough to feed us all!) Hopefully this weird weather breaks and moves soon! Praying here...

I watch because we are told to expect "increasing" calamities as foretold in Matthew 24 (droughts, famines, earthquakes, etc....at least according to a couple of apostles/prophets.)

So I've been "watching with all perseverence" as Elder Bednar has said to do repeatedly over the past few years.

,

Edited June 25, 2012 by lds2

[lds2]

For the Lower 48, the percentage area in "abnormally dry" (level 0 or worse) conditions reached 72%, an all-time high in the Drought Monitor era. The expansion of the drought nationally is particularly remarkable considering that most of Florida's drought and dryness was wiped out!

Drought Grows Nationally Even As Florida Gets Soaked - weather.com

[Vort]

I totally agree, I don't believe in global warming for the reasons given either.

To be clear, I'm not saying that I necessarily disbelieve "global warming". Rather, I'm saying that the entire conversation is so politicized and there is so much dishonesty in the discussion from the global warming advocates that it is impossible to tell from the conversation alone whether anthropogenic global warming is (1) occurring and (2) bad.

[lds2]

Yep. I agree. This thread was not started to be a political discussion about "global warming" or "climate change," rather it was started to talk about what we are seeing now, which is really "weird" record breaking weather. As weather does affect us and our world it is something I "watch with all perseverance."

Edited June 29, 2012 by lds2

[Hala401]

I think the term is misconstrued, and that much of what happens is because of God driven cycles that happen at his design.

My Mom was the child of Oklahoma Dust Bowl years and in retrospect, most agriculturalists think that the problem happened due to poor farming methods.

I remember coming to Oregon in the winter of 49-50' and moving to what had been a homestead in then rural Oregon. For those who use Google, It was on a side hill above the Willamette River in a settlement called Ladd Hill.

We were the first owners after the original homesteaders, and moved into a very primitive cabin on the 57 acres. The home had pine poles for a framework that still had the bark on them, and the walls were formed of a material then called Firtex. It has some primitive wiring on it with bare wires running and those old rotary switches. In the summer, the heat from the Sun would cook the sap out of the poles and made the cabin smell wonderful. I am sorry, I digress.

The winter we moved in, the snow was so deep in the fields that it was most of the way up the fence posts (about 3'). I don't think that area has seen any snow at all in at least 10 years. I suspicion that the wholesale logging of the rain forest west of there is contributory. Those were also the years following WWII and the huge clouds of smoke and toxic substances the war unleased into the air.

I doubt that it is a judgement from Heavenly Father. We seem quite able to cause enough of our own pain.

[lds2]

While the we used to stockpile grains for a rainy day that government physical supply was done away with years ago. The Church/Relief Society used to stockpile grains as well, but they stopped doing also...probably around the time when Church growth became global? As we know only a very small minority of LDS have what would once have been considered a "year supply" and is now called "longer-term supply."

In the US a good portion of our grains are "promised" before the crops are even planted.

Unforunately this year Global inventory stockpiles of basic grains will be at the lowest they've been in many years as we head into this harvest season.

Corn

The price of corn has gone up 12% in two days this week on dire crop news...

The corn stockpile (by the time of next harvest) was already expected to be the smallest in 16 years. The new crop is being downgraded every week as this drought increases and expands it's hold across the US. Take home from this...pray for rain!

The good news is that farmers planted more crops this year than normal! However, they need rain as the corn goes into it's pollination growth phase which makes it particularly susceptible to the weather over the next few weeks.

While it is hard for those of us in the West to believe there are many areas of the country that don't even have equipment to irrigate, it's true. Rain has been so plentiful during the summer over so many years that it isn't needed and irrigation equipment is expensive, rusts quickly in the humidity, etc.

Large U.S. corn sowings menaced by drought, USDA says

Larger U.S. corn sowings menaced by drought, USDA says | Reuters

Wheat

A DETERIORATING Russian wheat crop and drought in the US corn belt helped wheat prices jump by nearly 15 per cent in the past week.

Grain & Hay Wheat prices continue to rise - Weekly Times Now

(Bloomberg News) Droughts withering wheat crops from the U.S. to Russia to Australia will probably spur the biggest reduction in global supply estimates since 2003 and drive prices to the highest in almost a year.

Wheat Fields Parched By Drought From U.S. To Russia (and Argentina does that cover all the major continents...oh yeah, Africa too, yep...Asia too...)

Soy

Both corn and soybeans are approaching their record high prices set in 2008.

Drought conditions in Midwest and South America cause increase in crop futures - Des Moines agriculture | Examiner.com

"The weekly condition report by the USDA has shown a decrease in crop conditions for the U.S. for the third week in a row. Hot temperatures have caused the crops to mature early. In turn this will likely reduce their final yield.

The last growing season in South America did not produce well. Drought (a few months ago) caused low yields in Brazil and Argentina--both major players in the global grain market, and the two biggest producers of soybeans after the United States. Now, several months before soybeans are ready to harvest in the United States, Brazil may run out of crop to export. This will cause more of the U.S. inventory to be sold." (Our inventory is already very low.)

Drought conditions in Midwest and South America cause increase in crop futures - Des Moines agriculture | Examiner.com

Edited June 29, 2012 by lds2

[lds2]

"The mercury will again hit the triple digits.

"High temperatures in St. Louis, Missouri will reach 104 to 106 degrees Fahrenheit today through the weekend, with 99 degrees early next week but back above 100 F by next Wednesday," he predicted.

No significant rainfall was expected elsewhere in the Midwest for at least the next 10 days, Keeney said.

Commodity Weather Group on Friday said heat would stress the western two-thirds of the Midwest and hamper corn pollination next week. Heat and dryness in the Delta was threatening early pod setting of soybeans.

A break in the heat was expected in the next 11 to 15 days, but rains were still likely to be limited, according to CWG."

Oppressive heat, minimal rain for parched U.S. crops next week | Reuters

[lds2]

The price of corn affects many other market segments, from corn-fed livestock to ethanol. According to the USDA, supply has gone down 8 percent from last year.

If the drought continues, the U.S. government and insurance companies are likely to be hit with crop insurance payments. And as demand for corn as food, feed and fuel is unyielding, consumers are likely to see prices rise as well.

Midwestern Drought Threatens Crops, Food Prices | Earth Eats - Indiana Public Media

[lds2]

Here's a bit of of this week's global crop news...not looking good in a LOT of places, particularly among the traditional exporters of the world...

China - China farmland facing drought crisis, "Central, Eastern, and Northern China, their breadbasket..." "At least ten more days of parched weather." Reuter's Video China farmland facing drought crisis - Yahoo! News

Russia and Ukraine (and Kazahkstan) - Wheat prices rose Wednesday as the hot, dry summer continued to take its toll on crops in the U.S. and Russia...the heat wave may cause crops to deteriorate in the Midwest and parts of Russia and Kazakhstan.

Wheat prices climb as heat takes toll on crops - Businessweek

What is news, though, is that the inclement weather touched Russian growing areas, but, until recently, analysts did not expect much damage. That has changed. Wheat rally juiced by global production drop

Argentina (and Venezuela, etc.) - Drought isn't a new threat to Argentine agriculture and has affected crops with varying severity over the past three years but officials said this year's yields could be the worst in 15 years.

Drought hits Argentine corn and soy crops - UPI.com

Africa The deepening food crisis in West Africa’s Sahel region has sparked fears of a famine. Events in the region might easily mirror the kind of devastation seen recently in the Horn of Africa unless urgent action is taken. FAQs about the West Africa drought and hunger crisis | World Vision News

Korea - Worst drought in more than a century - North and South deploy government aid to limit food shortages amid their worst drought in decades

Severe drought stalks Korean peninsula - Asia - Al Jazeera English

Brazil Worst in 50+ year drought hit (Paraguay, Argentina, etc. as well) this spring which caused smaller harvests, reports are that they will soon run out of soy beans to export...they are one of the world's major exporters particularly for this time of year. However, 2nd corn crop after extreme drought is so far doing well China is positioning themselves to buy much of it.

Sri Lanka - There's a drought warning in Sri Lanka: the delay of the monsoon rains from the northwest has seriously affected the agricultural sector

SRI LANKA Drought warning in Sri Lanka: 60,000 hectares of cultivated land at risk - Asia News

Europe/Black Sea basin - drought in Spain, the report also raised concerns over the impact of low expected rainfall on crop yields in northern Germany, eastern Italy, Ukraine and southern Russia. "Warm weather with scarce rainfall will continue in the Black Sea basin, whereas northern areas will remain colder and with high amounts of rain," the MARS report said. France's harvest (large exporter) is so far looking good. Spain drought hits EU's wheat, barley yield outlooks

China and India and other countries - are changing their diet and including more wheat, even one percent change is huge when you consider the populations of these countries. Not including China and India wheat consumption is up 3 percent globally. Meeting this new demand while crops deteriorate around the world could be challenging this year.

So some good news this week...

Australia The Federal Government is set to declare Australia drought-free for the first time in more than 10 years.

Australia drought-free for first time in decade - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

Western Europe - except for some exceptions are still doing well as well as a lot of other smaller countries around the world.

Canada/Northern US - still looking good, a lot of farmers in Canada have changed from wheat to Canola but the crops are looking good in these areas (as far as I can tell.)

Fortunately, it is still a time of "abundance" so it is an excellent time "to gather in safely." However, global stocks are expected to get very low so we really NEED bumper crops this year. With higher prices more people plant crops worldwide so other smaller areas may make up for the normal exporters lack.

We just need some rain! (but not in Florida or some parts of China this week)

Edited June 29, 2012 by lds2

[pam]

The two threads were so closely related I merged them.

[lds2]

A drought in the Corn Belt and elsewhere in the Midwest has pushed the bushel price of corn up about 27 percent in the past month alone, and there is little sign of rain in the near future...Last week, 63 percent of the corn crop was rated in good or better condition, according to the Agriculture Department. This week, that figure had fallen to 56 percent.

Concerns arise as the crop approaches pollination, a particularly sensitive two-week period when bad weather can inflict significant damage. “You only get one chance to pollinate over 1 quadrillion kernels,” said Bill Lapp, president of Advanced Economic Solutions, a Omaha-based commodity consulting firm. “There’s always some level of angst at this time of year, but it’s significantly greater now and with good reason. We’ve had extended periods of drought.” Corn is among the most valuable of U.S. crops, and its price has ripple effects across a wide range of food prices...

Drought Threatens U.S. Food Prices

[mnn727]

I do believe in global climate change and I do believe that dumping billions of tons of garbage into the atmosphere MAY be slightly speeding up what nature was already doing.

[lds2]

I believe that there will be many natural causes for the calamities of the last days that are foreseen in Matthew 24, etc. Apostles and prophets have said that these things will be increasing in the future. Probably some of those events can be helped along by man (particularly things like wildfires, air and water pollution, i.e. major oil spills in the oceans, etc.)...how much I can't say, I hope that this thread doesn't become about that because at this point I don't think it matters regarding how much of these prophetically predicted calamities will be man made and how many from natural causes.

Without rain within the next few weeks in the Midwest we are looking at devastation of the corn crop which could be a significant event in our lives at least for the next few years as our global food reserves are already very low...and much of our food, our animals food and even a portion of our transportation needs relies on corn. So "placing blame" seems the least of our issues at this point.

What is important is that we "watch" for and "prepare" for (both temporally and spiritual) what we are told could be "difficult days" ahead.

Edited July 2, 2012 by lds2

[bcguy]

The Scientist where showing future weeather modeling software of what will be happening to the united state in the next 10 20 and fifty year time periods. It showed the southern half of the united states experincing long period of drought like conditions.

Now, if anyone wants to have our long extended period of rainy weather we are experincing in the pacific nw, then im all for exporting the water that is flooding parts of the frasier river.

[lds2]

From my house it began...this record breaking system started over the mountain west. FWIW

This past winter was an unusually warm winter, which was the hottest and driest that the western United States has ever seen since records have been kept. So far this year more than 40,000 daily heat records have been broken around the country, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Compare that with last year which was the ninth warmest on record when only 25,000 daily records had been set by this date.

And behind the records is a set of weather and climate conditions that is keeping the heat locked in over the country, with little respite in sight.

What's happening...

"The heat burning up the country right now is due in part to a persistent high pressure system, also called a heat ridge or dome, which parked itself over the mountain west, and has now shifted east into the Midwest and Southeast. The system is unfortunately stuck in place, Weber said, because of a slowdown of the North Atlantic Oscillation, a climate pattern that pulls weather patterns eastward across the country.

This "blocking" of the Atlantic has caused the jet stream, which normally ferries air from west to east across the United States, to buckle and trap heat in the Midwest and Southeast."

"That's not unusual in the summer, said National Weather Service meteorologist Greg Carbin. But this pattern of hot air does cover a broader area than usual, and the total amount of hot air is greater, stretching higher up in the atmosphere than normal, he said.

Dry soils, in part a product of the dry winter, exacerbate the heat. "If the soils were wetter, more energy would be absorbed by the water and the daily high temperatures wouldn't be as warm," Crouch told OurAmazingPlanet."

What's Behind The Record Heat? - Yahoo! News

[lds2]

You know how we (at least in Utah around where I live) were asked by the First Presidence to pray for blessings concerning the wildfires in the Intermountain West...It looks like Heavenly Father has answered our prayers!

It is weird to watch the clouds forming out of clear skies somewhere around South Central Utah and then moving North.

Unfortunately, it will not mean the end of the drought in the Midwest because this weather pattern is not headed East like normal but moving directly North and then East across the Northern States and Canada...essentially the states that DON'T need the water.

The Northern farmers should do very well because the drought to the South will mean high profits for them. Also there are some farmers in Kansas and Nebraska that can irrigate.

Some other areas have the ability to irrigate but they are restricted because of ground water pollution or because they say irrigating would damage the local aquifers.

[lds2]

Global corn markets were abuzz Monday with talk that U.S. livestock firms may have concluded a deal to import a record 1 million metric tons of Brazilian corn later this year...As the worst drought in about 25 years does daily damage to what was once expected to be a record crop, speculation of the world’s biggest corn exporter turning importer — at least in some regions — has grown.

U.S. corn prices have surged about 30 percent over the past three weeks, nearing an all-time high of $7.99-3/4 per bushel on Monday as a severe drought decimated the crop.

The drought has hit at a time when a bumper crop was needed this fall to bolster razor-thin stocks that are projected to be the smallest in 16 years by summer’s end.

U.S. firms to import 1 million metric tons of Brazilian corn | Latest BioFuels News Feeds and Information Relating to Renewable Energy Production and Use brought to you by BioFuelsChat

[lds2]

This summer, 80 percent of the U.S. is abnormally dry, and the report said the drought expanded in the West, Great Plains and Midwest last month. June was the 14th warmest and the 10th driest June on record.

[lds2]

Greenland ice sheet melted at unprecedented rate during July

Scientists at Nasa admitted they thought satellite readings were a mistake after images showed 97% surface melt over four days...unprecedented...

Greenland ice sheet melted at unprecedented rate during July | Environment | guardian.co.uk

[lds2]

Scientists at Nasa admitted they thought satellite readings were a mistake after images showed 97% surface melt over four days...

Greenland ice sheet melted at unprecedented rate during July | Environment | guardian.co.uk

[bcguy]

I remember the late years of the 1960s outside Portland. Snow was 2 to 2.5 feet tall. It was wonderful and fun to play in.

What are the snow storms in Portland like now??? Probably hardly nothing. Gig harbor, to the north in Tacoma, shows its bay frozen over and ice skaters on it in the 1950s. Washington used to get cold snaps that come down out of Canada and I remember it being bitter cold for a week at a time with temps as low as the teens. I remember snow accumulations of 2 feet or almost two feet in the 1980s. I do not think that happens anymore.

Yep, our wonderful winters are disappearing. Less and less snow accumulating. Expect hotter and dryer summers.

I think the term is misconstrued, and that much of what happens is because of God driven cycles that happen at his design.

My Mom was the child of Oklahoma Dust Bowl years and in retrospect, most agriculturalists think that the problem happened due to poor farming methods.

I remember coming to Oregon in the winter of 49-50' and moving to what had been a homestead in then rural Oregon. For those who use Google, It was on a side hill above the Willamette River in a settlement called Ladd Hill.

We were the first owners after the original homesteaders, and moved into a very primitive cabin on the 57 acres. The home had pine poles for a framework that still had the bark on them, and the walls were formed of a material then called Firtex. It has some primitive wiring on it with bare wires running and those old rotary switches. In the summer, the heat from the Sun would cook the sap out of the poles and made the cabin smell wonderful. I am sorry, I digress.

The winter we moved in, the snow was so deep in the fields that it was most of the way up the fence posts (about 3'). I don't think that area has seen any snow at all in at least 10 years. I suspicion that the wholesale logging of the rain forest west of there is contributory. Those were also the years following WWII and the huge clouds of smoke and toxic substances the war unleased into the air.

I doubt that it is a judgement from Heavenly Father. We seem quite able to cause enough of our own pain.