The Crimea River Thread


Just_A_Guy
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(Sorry about the bad pun in the title; couldn't resist).

So . . . thoughts? Does Russia have greater designs on the Ukraine or eastern Europe generally? Can/should the US do anything? On a conspiracy-theory note: Is the apparent hijacking of that Malaysian 777 related?

And, on a semi-topical note: what Church news have you heard from the region? I have a cousin-by-marriage in the Ukraine teaching English with a US-based company, and I'm frankly astounded she hasn't been pulled out of there. As far as I know, the Church hasn't pulled its foreign missionaries out of the Ukraine, either (except for a couple dozen in the eastern part of the country).

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Russia is always worried about it's homeland borders, because it's the easiest thing in the world for invaders to just go marching across them. So they want as much buffer as possible. Ukraine makes a good buffer, along with everything else that used to make the former USSR. No conspiracy necessary from where I'm standing.

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And, on a semi-topical note: what Church news have you heard from the region?

According to this official statement, all missionaries have been moved out of Crimea and several in that mission are either relocating or returning home early.

As far as Crimea goes, reading about Crimea's history is both confusing and enlightening. The Crimean Peninsula has changed hands several times over the past hundred years, from the Tartars to the Ottoman Empire to the Russian Empire to nobody (during the Russian Civil War) to the Soviet Union to the Soviet Union without any Tartars to Ukraine and now the Russian Empire again (and presumably without the Tartars again). If there's any losers in this war, it's the people of the Crimean Peninsula.

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Ukraine sits basically right under Russia. This is more or less Russia's territory. I would like to see the people of Ukraine move closer to the western European countries but again, this is Russia's territory. I don't think we can do much or should do much. The expert professor I've been listening to says U.S./Europe and Russia are heading close to war or another Bay-of-Pigs situation.

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This is about Black Sea control and Russia influencing the Ukraine away from the West. There is a dual Russian/Ukrainian Naval base within the Ukraine that I am sure annoys Russia and has already been occupied by Russian forces, essentially an invasion, much like what happened in Georgia.

Putin sees an opportunity, as did does the ousted ex-president of the Ukraine who is pro Russia and who did an about face in accepting Russian assurances over European assurances. It doesn't take much imagination that the ex president and Putin's interests coincide.

It should be a war, as say if Canada was to flood Alaska (its really ours) with troops with no identification but using Canadian army equipment, occupy towns and villages and say it wasn't us, influence a "referendum" to join Canada, then I am sure the U.S. would definitely be angry enough to send Bieber back.

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No returns on Bieber!

On a more serious note - the Ukrainian government is only a provisional government, my understanding is that there was an armed coup and the legal impeachment procedure was not followed. The Ukrainian president who was ousted was democratically elected with UN observers in place, is he corrupt and did he order protestors fired on? A full impeachment process would have proved the truth one way or another, it's a shame it wasn't followed so that the legality of the current government couldn't be questioned. So why do we accept the provisional Ukrainian government decisions but not the decision of the Crimean parliament? Just because they are friendly to the west and Crimea is friendly to Russia? I think the media, both western and Russian are cherry-picking facts to support the positions of their governments and none of us are getting a full view of what is really going on. On a more sobering note, it feels to me that Russia is again trying to extend its sphere of influence and establish itself as the power broker of the world, instead of the US. I don't think this is about oil pipelines or Crimea or democracy, it's about who is the big man on campus- Putin or Obama, whose country is going to call the shots for the world?

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In some new news in today, Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a truce until March 21st.

I think it's good, though, to take Wordnerd's comments into context. Nobody (except maybe Germany) has clean hands in this conflict, especially not ignore-what-we're-doing-in-Crimea-and-the-Caucasus Russia and the ignore-what-we're-doing-in-Iraq-and-Afghanistan United States.

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In some new news in today, Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a truce until March 21st.

I think it's good, though, to take Wordnerd's comments into context. Nobody (except maybe Germany) has clean hands in this conflict, especially not ignore-what-we're-doing-in-Crimea-and-the-Caucasus Russia and the ignore-what-we're-doing-in-Iraq-and-Afghanistan United States.

Curious if Russia will honor their end of the agreement

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Most of Ukraine east of the Dnipro river would be happier as part of Russia. They speak Russian in that half of the country, and they've wanted closer ties to Russia than to Europe. When the USSR split up, it did so largely along former borders. If the citizens of the time had had their way, there probably would have been a split back then.

Most of Ukraine west of the Dnipro speaks Ukrainian, and they want nothing to do with Russia. While most of the world considers this kind of a split to be a terrible thing, it's something that probably should have taken place 20 years ago.

(My background isn't in foreign policy, but I did live in Kyiv and western Ukraine for a couple years, and that's always been the sense I got from the people I knew there).

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This is about Black Sea control and Russia influencing the Ukraine away from the West. There is a dual Russian/Ukrainian Naval base within the Ukraine that I am sure annoys Russia and has already been occupied by Russian forces, essentially an invasion, much like what happened in Georgia.

Putin sees an opportunity, as did does the ousted ex-president of the Ukraine who is pro Russia and who did an about face in accepting Russian assurances over European assurances. It doesn't take much imagination that the ex president and Putin's interests coincide.

It should be a war, as say if Canada was to flood Alaska (its really ours) with troops with no identification but using Canadian army equipment, occupy towns and villages and say it wasn't us, influence a "referendum" to join Canada, then I am sure the U.S. would definitely be angry enough to send Bieber back.

The Yukon would grow in size and we'd have a lot of guns to reclaim from the new Canadian citizens :lol:

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(Sorry about the bad pun in the title; couldn't resist).

So . . . thoughts? Does Russia have greater designs on the Ukraine or eastern Europe generally? Can/should the US do anything? On a conspiracy-theory note: Is the apparent hijacking of that Malaysian 777 related?

And, on a semi-topical note: what Church news have you heard from the region? I have a cousin-by-marriage in the Ukraine teaching English with a US-based company, and I'm frankly astounded she hasn't been pulled out of there. As far as I know, the Church hasn't pulled its foreign missionaries out of the Ukraine, either (except for a couple dozen in the eastern part of the country).

Well similar events happened shortly before world war 2.

As for the 777 flight I'm doubting hijacking.

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"The fall of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophy of the 20th century" - Vladimir Putin.

We're essentially at a point where things that have been building in the background will reach a boiling point. Tomorrow. Next week. In the next few years. Who knows? But there are several things to consider:

1) The US is war weary. They have not been able to nor willing to defend their allies - Allies like Georgia and Ukraine.

2) Russia has been building a military alliance with China since 2001 with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

If I were writing a geopolitical thriller novel, I would definitely include the following:

Russia continues to eat large parts of Ukraine. They face no consequences.

China takes the islands away from Japan. They face no consequences.

China invades Taiwan as they have been threatening for years.

This is too much. War breaks out.

The US gets pulled in to a naval war in the Pacific. Russia takes this time to consolidate its power in the Middle East by invading Israel.

North Korea uses nuclear weaponry on Japan, ostensibly because they're led by a maniac. In reality, it will be because China doesn't care if North Korea turns in to a glass parking lot and they manipulate them in to doing their dirty work.

This causes the rest of the world to get involved.

***************

PS: I'm not saying this will happen. I'm saying that based upon current events, this is far from over. The invasion of Georgia and, ultimately, of Ukraine is more just a series of tests for the world. By a man who wants to recreate Empire.

Edited by FunkyTown
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"The fall of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophy of the 20th century" - Vladimir Putin.

According to this source, this quote is more accurately worded "[We] should acknowledge that the collapse of the Soviet Union was a major geopolitical disaster of the century." In context, it's a remark on how the collapse of the Soviet Union was a disaster for the Russian economy and the Russian identity, and is hardly a pining for a rebuilding of the Soviet Union. I only mention this because the correct version of that quote reminds me of one of my favorite Putin-isms:

[Those] who do not regret the collapse of the Soviet Union have no heart, and those that do regret it have no brain.
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Eowyn, was that a tongue-in-cheek comment, or is there a report corroborating that somewhere?

[Those] who do not regret the collapse of the Soviet Union have no heart, and those that do regret it have no brain.

Huh. The version I've heard is "A person under 30 who is NOT a liberal has no heart; a person over 30 who IS a liberal has no brain" :satan:

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