North Korean Nukes?

[anatess2]

Hmm... I wrote a longish response to this but it went to never-never-land during the upgrade.  So here's a very short summary instead.

 

On 9/7/2017 at 3:34 PM, DoctorLemon said:

So, I just read North Korea may fly a full-range armed ICBM on Saturday to celebrate its founding and prove its capabilities.

I just wanted to ask, in face of all of the recent developments in North Korea (ICBMs, hydrogen bombs, increasingly provocative behavior, etc.):

1)  What do you think of the situation in North Korea?  An existential threat to America, or overblown by the media?

2)  What do you think about the possibility of EMP attacks on America?  Again, true threat or overblown?

3)  Should America deter North Korea, or attack?  What should Trump do?

 

1.) Both

2.) Both.

3.)  Your problem with North Korea is not North Korea.  Trump is doing what he should be doing - whipping China and Russia into shape and keeping ASEAN united with his leadership in developing and implementing defense strategies, both militarily and economically.

 

 

Edited September 8, 2017 by anatess2

[anatess2]

dupe

Edited September 8, 2017 by anatess2

[Guest]

13 hours ago, Just_A_Guy said:

I recently saw a pretty doom-and-gloom article about the prospect of an EMP off the West Coast.  So it's interesting to hear @Carborendum having a more optimistic take.  Any sources you'd recommend for me to educate myself further?

From what little I've gathered, it seems South Korea is flirting with an appeasement strategy.   If that is indeed the case, it may be time for us to just give nukes to South Korea and Japan for balance-of-power purposes, bring our troops home, and let nature take its course.

Depends on what aspect you're talking about.

What's the article you mentioned?

[Guest]

I am starting to think the best option at this point may be to get the US presence out of Korea.

However, before doing so, make sure South Korea and Japan are both armed with REAL missile-ready H-bombs of their own, just in case Kim tries something stupid.

If China doesn't like the thought of South Korea and Japan with megaton-class hydrogen bombs, well this situation is primarily their fault and they have had plenty of opportunities over six decades to fix it.  They made their bed, and now they can sleep in it.

[Just_A_Guy]

9 hours ago, Carborendum said:

Depends on what aspect you're talking about.

What's the article you mentioned?

Ah, I was afraid you were going to ask that!  It was a couple weeks ago, and I can't find the link now.  But IIRC it included months-long power outages and automobiles basically being rendered useless.

[Guest]

4 hours ago, Just_A_Guy said:

Ah, I was afraid you were going to ask that!  It was a couple weeks ago, and I can't find the link now.  But IIRC it included months-long power outages and automobiles basically being rendered useless.

I have read a number of articles discussing the EMP threat.

I think the part about EMPs destroying cars is probably overblown.  Back in 2004 or so, the government did a test where they exposed a number of cars to a simulated EMP.  A few cars had to be restarted, but the cars were still usable.  This is because EMP works by using electric lines like antennae to pick up energy.  There is not enough wiring in a car to really create a charge that could destroy the thing.  Same goes for watches, unplugged cellphones, and laptop computers.  

One particularly unhinged article states that 90% of the American population will die in case of an EMP attack, due to loss of transportion, power, food, and societal breakdown.  I think this is probably way overblown, especially considering that cars would still work, gasoline and oil would still be deliverable, and people would still have generators.  This article sounds to me like it is channeling Y2K-type hysteria, which made Texas a bit like bizarro world in 1998-1999.

That said, there is risk that an EMP would create a surge to destroy very complex and expensive transformers supporting our power grid.  Such transformers would require a lot of time and effort to get back online, potentially many months.  So realistically, we are looking at potentially a year with no AC electricity.  There is some talk that destruction of part of the power grid would cause a domino effect on the rest of the power grid, leading to a very large problem for much of the United States.

There was actually an EMP effect when a 1.4 megaton h-bomb was exploded 1400 miles away at high altitude from Hawaii in the early 1960s.  The effect burned out 300 Hawaiian street lights.  There is debate regarding whether bomb yield and EMP effect are related.  There is some talk that the damage in Hawaii was contained because 1) Hawaii does not have as much exposed wiring on its power grid as the continential United States, and 2) sensitive electronics, the type that would be destroyed by an EMP, did not really exist back in the early 1960s.

So I don't know - in my opinion it would probably be a bigger deal than just a few street lights being burned out, but probably not a doomsday scenario.  The reality would be somewhere in between.  Maybe not enough to destroy America, but enough to make large parts of America like a third world country for awhile.

Edited September 9, 2017 by DoctorLemon

[Guest]

EMP

Nuclear EMP. (NEMP)

Faraday Cage

ON THE GOOD SIDE:

I spoke with an electrical engineer back in 2011 or 2012 about his work he'd been commissioned to do since 9-11.  He and his team were to work with all major electronics (industrial, commercial, and consumer) companies to design their devices with faraday cages to protect them from EMP attack.  He felt their design was good.  The weakness was that if the device were plugged in and turned on, the surge could still come in through the power lines.

ON THE BAD SIDE:

Several things have changed since I did all my research back in 2010.  Many more cars today are susceptible when they didn't used to be.  Much of our power infrastructure has micronized.  Our devices have gotten smaller in the digital age.  Much more of our lives are online.

MIX:

The most vulnerable point is actually uninsulated power transmission lines.  The longer the lines that can be exposed to the pulse, the greater the surge that can form.  However,  the longer the transmission line, the more destinations that the surge has to go to, thus dividing the energy to multiple locations and diminishing the actual damage.

NNEMP (Non-Nuclear EMP)

These are suitcase versions of EMP bombs.  These are not secondary effects of the detonation as is the case with NEMPs.  The NNEMP is specifically designed to generate a strong EMP to burn out all electronics within it's radius.  The last I heard was that the maximum effective range of these things is a few hundred yards.  There are some practical limitations that limit portable devices from creating a greater burst of power with a larger effective radius.

Because of this, I tend to discount the idea of NNEMPs really being a problem unless they have thousands of agent each carrying one of these in strategic locations and detonating them at the same time.

AFTERMATH:

From the Starfish Prime test, we learned that the effects were really like a large scale power outage.  Think about how long it took to get power back online the last time there was a major storm.  It could take weeks.  But we survived.  And we still had functionality of most of our infrastructure sufficient to get things back together.

[Just_A_Guy]

Isn't a NNEMP what they used in Ocean's Eleven?

[Guest]

11 hours ago, Just_A_Guy said:

Isn't a NNEMP what they used in Ocean's Eleven?

Yes.  But they were pretty optimistic about the range and totality of the effect.

[Guest]

I am right now reading North Korea Confidential.  Interesting book.  The main message I am getting from North Korea Confidential is that your typical North Korean may say the party lines in public (and particularly on camera) out of fear of having their entire family punished, but privately they are a lot more normal, participate in low-profile capitalism on the side, sneak Western media, criticize the Kim family behind closed doors, and the like.  (This may explain why you hear about even high level North Korean officials defecting).  Despite how North Korea sometimes appears on the news, North Koreans, on the individual level, apparently aren't anything like ISIS-style brainwashed fanatics.  They are much more normal and are just trying to survive in an insane situation.

This makes me think that Kim needs to go.  And once Kim goes (and the apparently very small group of "true believers" left in the country), North Koreans may prove surprisingly adept at returning to normal life, perhaps to a much greater degree than the Iraqis did after Saddam went.

Edited September 28, 2017 by DoctorLemon

[zil]

ISIS, as near as I can tell, don't engage in brainwashing techniques. They simply appeal to angry believers and frighten those who aren't strong enough to resist joining. North Korea, on the otherhand, definitely engage in brainwashing tactics. If those tactics fail, that's a very good thing. But Kim is one in a long line of tyrants, so I see no reason to believe the next guy will be better without violence being used to end the line of tyrants.

[anatess2]

3 hours ago, zil said:

ISIS, as near as I can tell, don't engage in brainwashing techniques. They simply appeal to angry believers and frighten those who aren't strong enough to resist joining. North Korea, on the otherhand, definitely engage in brainwashing tactics. If those tactics fail, that's a very good thing. But Kim is one in a long line of tyrants, so I see no reason to believe the next guy will be better without violence being used to end the line of tyrants.

There's not gonna be a "next guy".  The end of the Kim regime basically means that the DPRK demarcation line is going to cease to exist and Moon will preside over the entire peninsula.

Edited September 28, 2017 by anatess2

[Just_A_Guy]

I dunno.  All this talk of how NK would be just fine if only we could get rid of Kim, reminds me eerily of what Chalabi was assuring is of Iraq back in 2003.

[Guest MormonGator]

3 minutes ago, Just_A_Guy said:

I dunno.  All this talk of how NK would be just fine if only we could get rid of Kim, reminds me eerily of what Chalabi was assuring is of Iraq back in 2003.

I wish we'd learn that nation building works better on paper then in reality. We can't keep going to war everywhere. 

[NeuroTypical]

3 hours ago, zil said:

ISIS, as near as I can tell, don't engage in brainwashing techniques. 

I read a bit of intel on how a terror organization will prepare someone to be a suicide bomber.   After the training is complete, in the days leading up to the attack:

- The handlers separate the attacker from his loved ones, and talk about how the org will take care of them after the person gives their life for Allah.  The threat regarding what will happen to the loved ones should the person change their mind and try to run, goes unspoken, but is made nonetheless.

- The person is taken and raped by a man, and told the punishment for engaging in homosexual sex is eternal hell, and that only through this final act of violent jihad can the person redeem themselves. 

- The day before and day of, specific kinds of drugs are given, which hampers the person's ability to use higher reasoning, but doesn't hamper their ability to perform tasks like boarding a plane, driving a car, detonating a bomb.

- The person approaches the target, sexually traumatized and drugged, full of stories of good things that will happen if they carry out the attack, and bad things if they don't.

If that's not "brainwashing", I'd like to hear what is.

Edited September 28, 2017 by NeuroTypical

[Midwest LDS]

I'm still mostly concerned about South Korea. I have friends in the military who assure me that our Iron Dome missile defense system would take care of anything Kim shot at us, and I'm inclined to believe them. North Korean missile technology is far behind Russia's or even China's, so I feel less fearful about that then I previously did. But Kim's just crazy enough to target Seoul or the 20,000 plus soldiers we have stationed over there and with nukes, even one getting through would be a disaster. If we take him down we need to take him down. We can't screw around with a guy like this. Lobbing a few bombs and attempting to get it done on the cheap will get us nowhere. We either need to accept that Kim has nukes and we aren't willing to pay the price to get rid of him, and hope he's happy playing God in North Korea and won't do anything horrific like nuking Seoul. Or we have to accept the casualties and go in with everything, and remove the Kim dicatorship, and fix the place like we did with Germany and Japan post WW2. Both are, frankly, terrible options, and I don't know which is the lesser of two evils right now, but we need to pick one of them and run with it and quit pretending that sanctions are going to magically fix the problem.

[zil]

7 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

I read a bit of intel on how a terror organization will prepare someone to be a suicide bomber.   After the training is complete, in the days leading up to the attack:

- The handlers separate the attacker from his loved ones, and talk about how the org will take care of them after the person gives their life for Allah.  The threat regarding what will happen to the loved ones should the person change their mind and try to run, goes unspoken, but is made nonetheless.

- The person is taken and raped by a man, and told the punishment for engaging in homosexual sex is eternal hell, and that only through this final act of violent jihad can the person redeem themselves. 

- The day before and day of, specific kinds of drugs are given, which hampers the person's ability to use higher reasoning, but doesn't hamper their ability to perform tasks like boarding a plane, driving a car, detonating a bomb.

- The person approaches the target, sexually traumatized and drugged, full of stories of good things that will happen if they carry out the attack, and bad things if they don't.

If that's not "brainwashing", I'd like to hear what is.

Those sound more like terror tactics than brainwashing, though the average person would probably see that as brainwashing.  And I wasn't thinking of the suicide bombers, but just of the population under their control in general.  Further, it's been eons since I studied brainwashing, so there may now be different, expanded elements thereto.  When I did study it, it included things like:

* Eliminating distinction between individuals (uniform clothing, haircuts, possessions, living areas, etc. - in other words, prison, military, and some schools).

* Destroying a person's self-confidence and replacing it with complete trust in another (the person doing the brainwashing).  This generally involves something a sane person would call torture, though it doesn't have to be physical abuse.  Drugs may be used, but if drugs are required, the brainwashing is not complete / effective.  It also involves training a person not unlike Pavlov's dogs, but to give the response the trainer wants without regard for whether it's true - the end goal being that the person no longer knows for themselves what is / is not true, and fully accepts everything the trainer tells them.  (What you describe above is rather like this, but, in theory, is built on pre-existing religious beliefs in the subject, rather than replacing them.)

...and I'm having a hard time remembering the rest.  Someone clinically OCD cannot be brainwashed.  I think maybe they could be forced into being a suicide bomber if they already believed in the basic cause.  In other words, I was thinking of the formal psychological definition of brainwashing rather than the average person's definition.  And again, I'm willing to believe my information could be outdated.

North Korea very much does above two things on a massive scale (per the last documentary I saw - particularly with the constant blaring of propaganda and requiring the populace to repeat it).

[zil]

PS: There are those who would say that all religion is brainwashing, so in that sense, I suppose you could say all their believers are brainwashed...  But I don't think this fits the clinical definition.

[Guest]

47 minutes ago, zil said:

PS: There are those who would say that all religion is brainwashing, so in that sense, I suppose you could say all their believers are brainwashed...  But I don't think this fits the clinical definition.

Funny, sad, true story:

When I was 12 years old, my protestant fundie friends at school told me I was "brainwashed" and in a "cult" (this happens when you are LDS and growing up in West Texas).

I asked my mom that night, "what if we are brainwashed and we don't know it?"

She said I wouldn't be asking that question if I was brainwashed and/or in a cult.

(Later on I found out when protestant fundamentalists say Mormons are "cultists", they actually mean we are "heretics", but they are using really, really imprecise language).

Edited September 28, 2017 by DoctorLemon

[LoudLizard]

My opinion is that China likes nk testing the waters.  North Korea likes having China back its play.

 From the movie mad max beyond thunderdome. Master blaster comes to mind.  

So my fear is nk attacks sk or Japan with a wmd to provoke us and to attack their enemy.  

Realistically they will not attack us unless they are given russian or Chinese tech.  A lot of posturing.   Again my opinion.

[Vort]

On 9/8/2017 at 9:15 AM, Vort said:

For the record, there is zero solid evidence that NK possesses fusion (hydrogen) bomb technology. They certainly do possess fission (uranium) bomb technology, and have so demonstrated. That in itself is worrisome. But for now, the Pyongyang line that they have hydrogen bomb technology is just propaganda.

This appears not (or no longer) to be the case. From NPR, if you're inclined to believe them:

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/09/03/548262043/here-are-the-facts-about-north-koreas-nuclear-test

[Guest]

54 minutes ago, Vort said:

This appears not (or no longer) to be the case. From NPR, if you're inclined to believe them:

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/09/03/548262043/here-are-the-facts-about-north-koreas-nuclear-test

I am betting fission bomb with booster fuel.

I would question whether a "real" two stage hydrogen bomb can really only be 160-250kt.  I thought true H-bombs were typically in the megaton range.

It is all technicalities at this point, though.  The Ivy King test back in 1952 involved a 500kt pure fission bomb, so the fission/fusion distinction is not that big of a deal (until North Korea starts testing megaton-level nukes).

Edited October 5, 2017 by DoctorLemon

[pwrfrk]

On 9/7/2017 at 1:34 PM, DoctorLemon said:

So, I just read North Korea may fly a full-range armed ICBM on Saturday to celebrate its founding and prove its capabilities.

I just wanted to ask, in face of all of the recent developments in North Korea (ICBMs, hydrogen bombs, increasingly provocative behavior, etc.):

1)  What do you think of the situation in North Korea?  An existential threat to America, or overblown by the media?

2)  What do you think about the possibility of EMP attacks on America?  Again, true threat or overblown?

3)  Should America deter North Korea, or attack?  What should Trump do?

 

1. Overblown.  If you want to learn about the news media, listen to Don Henley's "Dirty Laundry".  Today's news is largely yellow journalism.

2. EMP is a true threat, but also overblown.  Where can someone get legitimate non-biased data on what EMP can do, it's effects, and the like?  My concern is the huge market the so-called survivalist/pay-triot community has on their own Faraday Cage "designs" and other miracle cures.

3. Trump needs to shut up.  Kim is doing what he's doing because he's being played like a toy by others.  Who are they?  Who knows.  But from what I know of Kim is if he takes the first shot, Russia and China won't defend him.  They won't stop him either, because it'll be a tool to weaken the US.  But they will not defend him.  OTOH if the US fires the first shot, Russia and China will step in and smack us down.  They are like a big brother that is annoyed with their little brother.  As for S Korea, I don't think that Kim wants to hurt them as they have resources he is desperate for and that he cannot get from China or Russia.

Dr. Lemon, I thought that Ivy King was the first thermonuke?  Wasn't it speculated to detonate 500kt, but turned out to be 3-4 mt instead?  If not, which one was it?  BTW, there was at least one nuke shot in the S Pacific where it was atmospheric, minimal to no fallout IIRC, but also no EMP noticed by the guys on the ground.  I forget the shot name, but saw the video.  Interesting.

Edited October 22, 2017 by pwrfrk

[Guest]

59 minutes ago, pwrfrk said:

 

Dr. Lemon, I thought that Ivy King was the first thermonuke?  Wasn't it speculated to detonate 500kt, but turned out to be 3-4 mt instead?  If not, which one was it?  BTW, there was at least one nuke shot in the S Pacific where it was atmospheric, minimal to no fallout IIRC, but also no EMP noticed by the guys on the ground.  I forget the shot name, but saw the video.  Interesting.

Ivy Mike was the first true two-stage thermonuclear warhead.  It was actually 10 mt., an enormous explosion.  Ivy king is considered to be the largest pure fission bomb ever, at 500kt (no fusion components whatsoever).  There is also a third type of nuke, the "boosted" nuke, which derives some explosive energy from fusion but not enough to be a true two-stage hydrogen bomb.  This is probably what the North Korean test in September was (and yields between 100 and 1000 kt are very common for "boosted" weapons).

Edited October 22, 2017 by DoctorLemon

[lostinwater]

On 9/7/2017 at 12:58 PM, MormonGator said:

1. North Korea is all smoke and mirrors. Totally overblown by the media. Read "Nothing to Envy" by Barbra Demick. You (generic) will learn many things. Quick story-A North Korean solider was amazed and stunned by an invention the South had. Guess what it was? Metal toenail clippers. The solider then realized that if he was stunned about that technology, the North Koreans were way behind the rest of us. He eventually fled the country. 

2. Overblown. While an EMP is nothing to sneeze at, we'd have a lot of warning and we'd be able to take it down. I have full faith and confidence in the American military. 

3. Stand still and wait. Here's the dirty little secret. All China has to do is slap NK on the wrist and say "No." Then NK runs back to it's room, turns off the light and cries. China is the daddy over there. If we attack NK, China won't be happy about that. Russia won't either.

Global politics are much more complicated than beating your chest and playing the macho tough guy. while looking for countries to bomb and invade. 

Another good read is "Dear Leader".  About the poet laureate of North Korea who defected after he accidentally left his work laptop on a train (though he began to become disenfranchised when he was introduced to the upper echelons of society and saw how extravagantly they lived) - which he knew met he would have been sent to a gulag.  He personally met the Kim leaders, and it was his job to praise them through poetry.  According to him, after Kim Il Sung passed, a government faction called the OGD mostly took control of the government and keep the Kim line going as largely puppet leaders (albeit powerful puppets).

Very interesting also to read about Russia's assistance to North Korea - very similar to what we did in Afghanistan back in the cold war and time after - fought with Russia by financing and assisting it's enemies.  i suspect there may be more street smarts in that country and those that support it than i'd like to admit.  

Edited October 22, 2017 by lostinwater