anatess2 Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 After USMCA, now you got CHINA. THAT'S A GIANT DEAL! Trump is doing MUCH BETTER on foreign policy than I even hoped for. It's sad that the media - including economist sections - just refuse to cover this properly. So... the End of the US? Only if you blow yourselves up from the inside. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 hours ago, anatess2 said: So... the End of the US? Only if you blow yourselves up from the inside. Exactly. That's what I'm afraid of. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anatess2 Posted December 3, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Carborendum said: Exactly. That's what I'm afraid of. Let's see if the House would even sign off on these trade agreements... the closer it gets to January, the less the chance of it happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnsonJones Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 10:46 AM, anatess2 said: After USMCA, now you got CHINA. THAT'S A GIANT DEAL! Trump is doing MUCH BETTER on foreign policy than I even hoped for. It's sad that the media - including economist sections - just refuse to cover this properly. So... the End of the US? Only if you blow yourselves up from the inside. Well, it is a little early to tell with China. We have nebulous promises that say something, but China is known to say one thing and do another. Luckily it only means we postponed the tariffs for 90 days, not that they are off the table. It remains to be seen if there will be significant changes in the way China does things. The markets seem to be hopeful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anatess2 Posted December 4, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 (edited) 30 minutes ago, JohnsonJones said: Well, it is a little early to tell with China. We have nebulous promises that say something, but China is known to say one thing and do another. Luckily it only means we postponed the tariffs for 90 days, not that they are off the table. It remains to be seen if there will be significant changes in the way China does things. The markets seem to be hopeful. Yes, we'll see in 90 days. But note... the US has already imposed $253 billion worth of tariffs against China this year. China responded with only $130 billion. If nothing happens in 90 days, the US will go up to $506 billion. I am strongly inclined to think China will blink. That's the advantage of being the #1 economy. You got the unparalleled power of the American consumer as your trump card (pun applies too). Just the fact that Trump is bold enough to go on a trade war with China is something amazing. Yes, yes, he talked about it a lot during the campaigns... but he is dragging the big parachute of Republican Free Traders behind him. Edited December 4, 2018 by anatess2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 5, 2018 Report Share Posted December 5, 2018 17 hours ago, anatess2 said: Just the fact that Trump is bold enough to go on a trade war with China is something amazing. Yes, yes, he talked about it a lot during the campaigns... but he is dragging the big parachute of Republican Free Traders behind him. I'm struggling to give the correct analogy. An approximate one will have to do. In poker, there is a saying: One requirement for bluffing is that every once in a while, you have to be holding a winning hand. Trump doesn't really WANT to go into a trade war. And a lot of the stuff he says he's going to do are things that are to set the goal posts far enough that when he "compromises", he will end up where he wants to be. At the same time, if they call him on his "bluff" (if it can be called that) he's perfectly willing to follow through with it. That's how he gets them to the "compromise" point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anatess2 Posted December 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2018 32 minutes ago, Carborendum said: At the same time, if they call him on his "bluff" (if it can be called that) he's perfectly willing to follow through with it. That's how he gets them to the "compromise" point. Perfectly stated. China is very very good at this kind of poker. And a lot of it has to do with them knowing they have all these people that the other side of the table wants to reach. And they are perfectly able and willing to close down trade all together as they've historically proven themselves to be self-sufficient.... that's what THEY want you to think. And then they have their battle-ax of a rogue Korean dictator in their backpockets if they need it. Nobody really dared to call them out on that bluff (if it is a bluff). Now Trump is calling it... with his own bluff. 2 master negotiators facing each other. It's anybody's game. But it looks like the US is going to win this. Europe would be drooling buckets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.