Why the Fight Over the Wall Matters

[unixknight]

It's actually pretty simple.  Whoever wins this showdown wins in 2020, barring any major surprises.  

Trump has actually been pretty good about keeping his campaign promises, but the Wall is a glaring exception that was one of the major reasons people voted for him.  I don't know why it hasn't been done so far, but people were becoming impatient.  Even Anne Coulter, who has been one of his more outspoken supporters, officially declared she wouldn't vote for him again if the Wall doesn't get built.

So it's simple.  Right now all of the President's credibility rests on getting this done.  The Democrats know it.  They're well aware that if they give in they'll lose in 2020.  They'll have to fall back on the whole collusion investigation thing but that's not bearing the kind of fruit they were hoping for, and nobody really cares about it anymore.  

This is NOT about the Wall itself.  The same politicians who are screaming about how immoral it is now were the ones who were calling for tighter border security before Trump became President.  They oppose it because they oppose him.  Period.   They need to damage his credibility to make him vulnerable in 2020, and this is the most effective way to do it.  It's also Trump's Achilles' Heel.  Coulter, along with other Trump supporters, have signaled what it would take to get them to refuse to vote for Donald Trump in 2020, and the Democrats heard them.

[NeuroTypical]

Yep.  And the fight is now, because it's always been Trump vs. the world, and he didn't want to have this fight against his own party (or, at least, the party with which he currently affiliates).  Now the dems are in power, the fight is on.

Both sides are juggling what is most likely to get them re-elected.  Trump figures every second the govt is shut down, every sad "I'm a govt employee struggling to pay bills" story we watch, it's better for R and worse for D.  The Democrats figure it's the other way around.

I figure Trump is right.  Saying "This thing has been broken all our lives, and you people WILL fix it NOW", well, is there anyone here that message doesn't resonate with?    Stacked up against the same tired old "Evil white guys in suits are mean to poor minorities" narrative, which has been old for generations now.

Edited January 15, 2019 by NeuroTypical

[Guest MormonGator]

I'm not sure it'll have much of an effect on the 2020 election. Americans have short memories. Not to mention that the election of 2016 taught me that all political predictions are meaningless. 

[The Folk Prophet]

Waiting for @anatess2.

[unixknight]

25 minutes ago, MormonGator said:

I'm not sure it'll have much of an effect on the 2020 election. Americans have short memories. Not to mention that the election of 2016 taught me that all political predictions are meaningless. 

I think this issue is big enough that it will...  because you KNOW if the Wall doesn't get built, it will be the club to beat Trump down.  He won't be able to answer that criticism other than to say "Well, re-elect me and we'll do it for sure this time!!!"  Nope.  On the other hand if he wins this, his platform in 2020 will be "I got it ALL done.  Vote for me and we'll keep getting things done.  Plus, the Wall is under construction.  If I don't win, the next President will only cancel the project before it's complete.  Is that really what you want?"

I suspect that plays a role in why it took 2 years to finally press it.  If it were complete before 2020, then there'd be less urgency to keep him in office.

[anatess2]

27 minutes ago, The Folk Prophet said:

Waiting for @anatess2.

I was so busy talking to people who don't get Star Wars, I completely did not know this thread exists until you tagged me.

 

21 minutes ago, unixknight said:

I think this issue is big enough that it will...  because you KNOW if the Wall doesn't get built, it will be the club to beat Trump down.  He won't be able to answer that criticism other than to say "Well, re-elect me and we'll do it for sure this time!!!"  Nope.  On the other hand if he wins this, his platform in 2020 will be "I got it ALL done.  Vote for me and we'll keep getting things done.  Plus, the Wall is under construction.  If I don't win, the next President will only cancel the project before it's complete.  Is that really what you want?"

I suspect that plays a role in why it took 2 years to finally press it.  If it were complete before 2020, then there'd be less urgency to keep him in office.

It is not about the wall not getting built.  It is the WHY the Wall did not get built.  For example, if the shutdown continues and Trump goes and declares a national emergency and builds the wall that way and the 9th circuit blocks it and the court case doesn't get resolved by 2020, Trump will still get re-elected.

If the wall did not get built because Trump decided to sign the budget without wall funding, and his explanation is... "poor government workers and medicaid recipients and national parks" he's toast.

But, this is not the end-all be-all of 2020.  If Ginsburg manages to stay in the Supreme Court through 2020, Trump will be re-elected.

 

Edited January 15, 2019 by anatess2

[unixknight]

10 minutes ago, anatess2 said:

It is not about the wall not getting built.  It is the WHY the Wall did not get built.  For example, if the shutdown continues and Trump goes and declares a national emergency and builds the wall that way and the 9th circuit blocks it and the court case doesn't get resolved by 2020, Trump will still get re-elected.

I wouldn't bet on that.  If the President does that, he'll be doing exactly the sort of thing we've criticized Obama for.  One of Obama's biggest faults was h is tendency to override the Congress to press his agenda.  If Trump does it too, he'll lose a LOT of Conservatives.

[anatess2]

36 minutes ago, unixknight said:

I suspect that plays a role in why it took 2 years to finally press it.  If it were complete before 2020, then there'd be less urgency to keep him in office.

P.S.  That's not why.  Funding requires 60 votes in the Senate.  Schumer has every single Dem's guts in a vise.  And that's not counting all the McCain's and Flakes and now, Romneys pockmarking that legislative branch.  Last year's budget was put on shutdown because of DACA and the wall.  It did not get pushed because McConnell and Ryan passed the budget without the immigration stuff and therefore, the President not signing it would alienate the non-Trump wing of the Republican party... like, Utah.  Because he can't say this is a Pelosi/Schumer shutdown.

Edited January 15, 2019 by anatess2

[anatess2]

1 minute ago, unixknight said:

I wouldn't bet on that.  If the President does that, he'll be doing exactly the sort of thing we've criticized Obama for.  One of Obama's biggest faults was h is tendency to override the Congress to press his agenda.  If Trump does it too, he'll lose a LOT of Conservatives.

You can bet on that if the government remains shut down.  Conservatives want illegal immigration stopped more than they want the government to be opened to stop it.  And Conservatives agree this is a national emergency after the press made hay about that caravan.

[Still_Small_Voice]

This woman below brought some illegal immigrants to one of Nancy Pelosi's properties:

Laura Loomer, accompanied by illegal immigrants from Guatemala and Mexico, lugged a tent onto Pelosi’s multimillion-dollar vineyard estate, freelance journalist Nick Monroe reported Monday. In large red letters, the word “immorality” was written across the tent; there were also photos of murder victims of illegal immigrants hanging from the front of the tent.

Livestreaming the event, Loomer took the time to read each of the victims’ names and reiterate that these folks were not welcome in “sanctuary state California.”

Read more here:  https://godfatherpolitics.com/laura-loomer-with-illegal-immigrants-seek-sanctuary-on-pelosis-lawn-video/

[unixknight]

Just now, anatess2 said:

You can bet on that if the government remains shut down.  Conservatives want illegal immigration stopped more than they want the government to be opened to stop it.  And Conservatives agree this is a national emergency after the press made hay about that caravan.

The problem is that it wasn't ever presented as an emergency until the idea of doing so became a possible avenue for forcing the issue.  The caravan drama is over, so there's nothing different right now than there was a year ago.  People would say it's just a tactic to get it done, and they'd be correct.  That's bad optics.

[anatess2]

Just now, unixknight said:

The problem is that it wasn't ever presented as an emergency until the idea of doing so became a possible avenue for forcing the issue.  The caravan drama is over, so there's nothing different right now than there was a year ago.  People would say it's just a tactic to get it done, and they'd be correct.  That's bad optics.

This is not true.  It was declared an emergency which is why the military got sent there.

[unixknight]

4 minutes ago, anatess2 said:

This is not true.  It was declared an emergency which is why the military got sent there.

Then why wasn't the wall funded by emergency order then?

No matter how you slice it, it's gonna look like a unilateral cheese tactic.  If Obama did it we'd be screaming about Executive overreach.  

Besides, even if he does it, he'll lose in court.  Better to steer clear.

[anatess2]

20 minutes ago, unixknight said:

Then why wasn't the wall funded by emergency order then?

The only reason is because Trump, even today, is reluctant to do so.

 

20 minutes ago, unixknight said:

No matter how you slice it, it's gonna look like a unilateral cheese tactic.  If Obama did it we'd be screaming about Executive overreach.  

Besides, even if he does it, he'll lose in court.  Better to steer clear.

This is not the same as Obama's EO's like DACA, etc.  Border Security is National Security - the PRIMARY reason the Federal Government exists and the PRIME directive of the Executive branch.

The Wall is already legal since the time of Reagan.  That is not the issue.  The issue for this specific shutdown is simply where the appropriation comes from.

With National Emergency being the Prime Directive of the Executive Branch, the 9th circuit is the only court that is brave enough to take on that directive as unconstitutional.  But then they're not really a court.  They're more of an activist organization.

[unixknight]

2 minutes ago, anatess2 said:

The only reason is because Trump, even today, is reluctant to do so.

 

This is not the same as Obama's EO's like DACA, etc.  Border Security is National Security - the PRIMARY reason the Federal Government exists and the PRIME directive of the Executive branch.

The Wall is already legal since the time of Reagan.  That is not the issue.  The issue for this specific shutdown is simply where the appropriation comes from.

With National Emergency being the Prime Directive of the Executive Branch, the 9th circuit is the only court that is brave enough to take on that directive as unconstitutional.  But then they're not really a court.  They're more of an activist organization.

Maybe, but that's not how it's being played, and so right or wrong, it wouldn't pass the sniff test.

[prisonchaplain]

I'm not taking sides in this string. It does seem appropriate though to share how impressed and humbled I am to be part of a group of workers who take our mission seriously, and remain dedicated, despite being caught in the middle of this.

[Just_A_Guy]

Is the shutdown a means for Trump to get his wall?  Or is the wall a means for Trump to keep the government shut down?

The thing that I think keeps Dems up nights worrying is, what if we had a shutdown and no one noticed?  The’re trying to make us think the shutdown is a bad thing; but the scariest thing they’ve come up with so far—and which the leftist media are trying to perseverate on—is the trash accumulation at some national parks.  And since Trump, unlike Goon Barry, isn’t going out of his way to make the shutdown hurt average Americans; at least in Utah there are state and private entities that have been able to come into the parks and address a lot of that.  Utah has announced that its federally-funded programs are good to go through most of February; and I imagine most red states are similarly prudently run and can make the same claim.  It’ll be the spendthrift blue states that will feel the pain first.

Meanwhile, give the shutdown another missed pay period or two, and many of the “deep state” federal employees who have been slow-walking Trump’s agenda will have no choice but to quit their jobs and take a position somewhere in the roaring economy.  Trump could push this thing well into tax season with minimal additional political loss and effectively purge the ranks of the weaponized federal bureaucracy; and when the shutdown eventually ends he may well have an opportunity to be much more selective about who gets hired in their places.

And even if not:  @anatess2, I gotta give your boy props on this.  This is the way GOP presidents are supposed to handle shutdowns.  

Edited January 16, 2019 by Just_A_Guy

[anatess2]

8 minutes ago, Just_A_Guy said:

Is the shutdown a means for Trump to get his wall?  Or is the wall a means for Trump to keep the government shut down?

The thing that I think keeps Dems up nights worrying is, what if we had a shutdown and no one noticed?  The’re trying to make us think the shutdown is a bad thing; but the scariest thing they’ve come up with so far—and which the leftist media are trying to perseverate on—is the trash accumulation at some national parks.  And since Trump, unlike Goon Barry, isn’t going out of his way to make the shutdown hurt average Americans; at least in Utah there are state and private entities that have been able to come into the parks and address a lot of that.  Utah has announced that its federally-funded programs are good to go through most of February; and I imagine most red states are similarly prudently run and can make the same claim.  It’ll be the spendthrift blue states that will feel the pain first.

Meanwhile, give the shutdown another missed pay period or two, and many of the “deep state” federal employees who have been slow-walking his agenda will have no choice but to quit their jobs and take a position somewhere in the roaring economy.  Trump could push this thing well into tax season with minimal additional political loss and effectively purge the ranks of the weaponized federal bureaucracy; and when the shutdown eventually ends he may well have an opportinity to be much more selective about who gets hired in their places.

And even if not:  @anatess2, I gotta give your boy props on this.  This is the way GOP presidents are supposed to handle shutdowns.  

It definitely is one of those things that filters out the big government "RINOs" from the conservatives and libertarians.  And another proof that the Trump coalition is towards the conservatives and libertarians and not much the RINOs even as Trump himself can't spell conservative and he is advised by his daughter and son-in-law.  Interestingly, Lindsey Graham and the like - even amnesty-Rubio - are positioning themselves in the conservative side like they've always belonged there.  So, let's see how this really plays out in the new Congress.

I really don't see where the Democrat's ace card is gonna come from.  It's just bad optics for them whichever way they decide on the matter.  And the Russiagate that they try to fan back out of the dustbin is getting "meh"'s all over.  I just don't see how they win this, but hey, I've been wrong before.

[Just_A_Guy]

7 minutes ago, anatess2 said:

It definitely is one of those things that filters out the big government "RINOs" from the conservatives and libertarians.  And another proof that the Trump coalition is towards the conservatives and libertarians and not much the RINOs even as Trump himself can't spell conservative and he is advised by his daughter and son-in-law.  Interestingly, Lindsey Graham and the like - even amnesty-Rubio - are positioning themselves in the conservative side like they've always belonged there.  So, let's see how this really plays out in the new Congress.

I really don't see where the Democrat's ace card is gonna come from.  It's just bad optics for them whichever way they decide on the matter.  And the Russiagate that they try to fan back out of the dustbin is getting "meh"'s all over.  I just don't see how they win this, but hey, I've been wrong before.

The real fun begins when people start missing their tax refunds, and Trump advocates a “partial government reopening” to at least send the IRS guys back to work.  Do the Dems play along and let the rest of the government stay in shutdown while they keep dickering over the wall?  Or do they refuse to send the IRS back to work unless every other federal employee can go back to work too?  In the first scenario they lose a huge bargaining chip, but in the latter scenario the tweets practically write themselves.  

Edited January 16, 2019 by Just_A_Guy

[askandanswer]

From an outsider's perspective, a government shut down seems like a reasonable-sized step towards smaller government  

[anatess2]

4 minutes ago, Just_A_Guy said:

The real fun begins when people start missing their tax refunds, and Trump advocates a “partial government reopening” to at least send the IRS guys back to work.  Do the Dems play along and let the rest of the government stay in shutdown while they keep dickering over the wall?  Or do they refuse to send the IRS back to work unless every other federal employee can go back to work too?  In the first scenario they lose a huge bargaining chip, but in the latter scenario the tweets practically write themselves.  

And here's another Trump campaign talking point... down-sizing the IRS by making tax returns for most Americans fit in a post card... wonder how that would play out with this scenario.  Trump has been talking about another tax cut bill.

[anatess2]

3 hours ago, unixknight said:

Maybe, but that's not how it's being played, and so right or wrong, it wouldn't pass the sniff test.

Trump hasn't played yet.  It's just media controlling that narrative right now.  Trump has this amazing way of pushing the narrative where he wants it to go.

[unixknight]

13 minutes ago, anatess2 said:

Trump hasn't played yet.  It's just media controlling that narrative right now.  Trump has this amazing way of pushing the narrative where he wants it to go.

That's true, and I'm confident ultimately he'll win the standoff, so the whole national emergency thing should be a moot point.

[Guest]

32 minutes ago, Just_A_Guy said:

The real fun begins when people start missing their tax refunds, and Trump advocates a “partial government reopening” to at least send the IRS guys back to work.  Do the Dems play along and let the rest of the government stay in shutdown while they keep dickering over the wall?  Or do they refuse to send the IRS back to work unless every other federal employee can go back to work too?  In the first scenario they lose a huge bargaining chip, but in the latter scenario the tweets practically write themselves.  

Didn't Trump already announce that tax returns would still be paid during the shutdown?

The thing is that the President doesn't need to have the government re-open.  Without a spending bill or a budget in place, the Secretary of the Treasury (whom we hope is on Trump's side) gets to set priorities on what bills get paid and when.

This is how Obama was still able to fund Obamacare during his shutdown even though it was NOT an essential service.

[Just_A_Guy]

45 minutes ago, Carborendum said:

Didn't Trump already announce that tax returns would still be paid during the shutdown?

He says it will happen.  The Dems are saying it would be illegal.  That would be all we need, for the House Legislative Counsel to file for a court injunction stopping the IRS from processing refunds.  

Edited January 16, 2019 by Just_A_Guy