MrShorty

vaccines at the intersection of religious liberty and public health

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54 minutes ago, Mores said:

I know what it is.  My point is that it is 100% preventable by living a chaste life.  So, there is a VERY easy way to avoid it without medical intervention.

As far as mandating it, I am also unaware of it being a reality -- today. 

There have been discussions about it on various talk shows and such -- even among public officials and politicians.  It is automatically assumed that everyone will participate in casual sex throughout their lives (among the people discussing it).  But so far, I have not heard of any actual policies being formally proposed.  It's just in the early stages.

I wonder whether the folks who would have no problem imprisoning or terminating the rights of a parent who won’t vaccinate a daughter against HPV; would be OK with similarly harsh legal measures against a person who actually spreads HPV via sexual promiscuity?

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25 minutes ago, MarginOfError said:

Um, 11 deaths out of 2,671 cases.  Or about 4.1 deaths per 1,000 cases.  Now consider that by 1962 (before the measles vaccine was developed), the mortality rate was about 1 per 10,000 cases.  Let me put those in the same units

1959 - 1962: 1 per 10,000 cases
2000 - 2019: 41 per 10,000 cases

And mind you, this is a disease that was declared eliminated in 2000--and we are worse off now than we were sixty years ago!

The major difference is that we are looking at 2,671 cases in the modern era compared to 4 million cases in the 1959-1962 era. Largely due to vaccination.  Perhaps a little hysteria is warranted.

https://physiciansforinformedconsent.org/measles/dis

So you agree that the mortality rate of measles is very low.

 

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6 minutes ago, mikbone said:

https://www.cdc.gov/heartdisease/docs/ConsumerEd_HeartDisease.pdf

Heart Disease causes about 600,000 deaths a year.  It is largely preventable by not smoking, diet, and exercise.  And I don’t see any hysteria about stopping smoking, obesity, or high blood pressure...

11 vs. 600,000 cases 

do the math

Okay, I'l bite

We've established that the mortality rate for measles is 4 in 1,000 cases.

Now, let's establish the number of cases of heart disease.  It is estimated that about half of US adults have heart disease.  Now let's take a US population of 327,000,000, and assume one third of those are not adults.  That leaves us with 215,820,000 adults.  Half of those have heart disease, or 107,910,000 adults with heart disease.  Using that as the denominator with 600,000 as the numerator produces an estimate of 5.5 deaths per 1,000 cases.

So you're right, heart disease is a bigger problem by both magnitude and by rate.  

But the piece that you're leaving out is that we don't have a vaccine for heart disease!!!  We have a vaccine for Measles, and it could theoretically be eradicated.

I'll also point out that measles has a tendency to kill the young.  66% of heart disease deaths occur after the age of 75. I know that 70 is supposed to be the new 40 or something like that, but let's face it--75 is kind of old

Lastly, what the flip do you mean there's no hysteria about diabetes, smoking, obesity, or high blood pressure.  We have an entire industry built up around "fitness" and "wellness." We spent billions on a 30  year campaign to keep kids from smoking that largely succeeded.  We have a gazillion non-profits out there encouraging children to get outside and play.  We have seen an incredible shift in school meal programs (at least in my area, but my understanding is that it was brought about my Michelle Obama's program) to provide more locally sourced, fresh, healthier food in our school systems to help teach children about the importance of nutrition.  And every time I go see my doctor I am bombarded with questions about diet, exercise, preventing high blood pressure and diabetes. I get a lot more exposure to preventing those conditions in my life than I do about measles. It just comes pretty consistently, so doesn't appear to be as sensational.

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3 minutes ago, mikbone said:

So you agree that the mortality rate of measles is very low.

Sure.  In the same vein that 3.8 per 1,000 Americans are killed in car crashes every year. 

Again, and I really can't stress this enough, because you don't seem to get it

Measles in 2019 kills at 40 times the rate it did BEFORE WE HAD A VACCINE FOR IT

Compare it to whatever non-communicable disease for which we have no vaccine all you like.  The fact remains WE HAVE A FRICKIN' VACCINE

And it still is killing at a greater rate than it was before there was a vaccine. That's a problem worth a little hysteria.

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1 minute ago, MarginOfError said:

Okay, I'l bite

We've established that the mortality rate for measles is 4 in 1,000 cases.

Now, let's establish the number of cases of heart disease.  It is estimated that about half of US adults have heart disease.  Now let's take a US population of 327,000,000, and assume one third of those are not adults.  That leaves us with 215,820,000 adults.  Half of those have heart disease, or 107,910,000 adults with heart disease.  Using that as the denominator with 600,000 as the numerator produces an estimate of 5.5 deaths per 1,000 cases.

So you're right, heart disease is a bigger problem by both magnitude and by rate.  

But the piece that you're leaving out is that we don't have a vaccine for heart disease!!!  We have a vaccine for Measles, and it could theoretically be eradicated.

I'll also point out that measles has a tendency to kill the young.  66% of heart disease deaths occur after the age of 75. I know that 70 is supposed to be the new 40 or something like that, but let's face it--75 is kind of old

Lastly, what the flip do you mean there's no hysteria about diabetes, smoking, obesity, or high blood pressure.  We have an entire industry built up around "fitness" and "wellness." We spent billions on a 30  year campaign to keep kids from smoking that largely succeeded.  We have a gazillion non-profits out there encouraging children to get outside and play.  We have seen an incredible shift in school meal programs (at least in my area, but my understanding is that it was brought about my Michelle Obama's program) to provide more locally sourced, fresh, healthier food in our school systems to help teach children about the importance of nutrition.  And every time I go see my doctor I am bombarded with questions about diet, exercise, preventing high blood pressure and diabetes. I get a lot more exposure to preventing those conditions in my life than I do about measles. It just comes pretty consistently, so doesn't appear to be as sensational.

The irritation is that the government can mandate that someone get a vaccination.  Yet allows people to drive dangerous cars and overeat, etc.

 

If you want to be vaccinated get vaccinated.  My brood has had the MMR.  But they will not get the HPV.

 

I am against the government making any health requirements.  Recommendations are fine.

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Just now, mikbone said:

The irritation is that the government can mandate that someone get a vaccination.  Yet allows people to drive dangerous cars and overeat, etc.

 

If you want to be vaccinated get vaccinated.  My brood has had the MMR.  But they will not get the HPV.

 

I am against the government making any health requirements.  Recommendations are fine.

And that's fine. But keep your disease ridden sons away from my daughters :D

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1 minute ago, MarginOfError said:

Sure.  In the same vein that 3.8 per 1,000 Americans are killed in car crashes every year. 

Again, and I really can't stress this enough, because you don't seem to get it

Measles in 2019 kills at 40 times the rate it did BEFORE WE HAD A VACCINE FOR IT

Compare it to whatever non-communicable disease for which we have no vaccine all you like.  The fact remains WE HAVE A FRICKIN' VACCINE

And it still is killing at a greater rate than it was before there was a vaccine. That's a problem worth a little hysteria.

The measles vaccine is 93% effective with one dose.  97% effective with 2 doses.

It is not 100% effective.

 

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1 minute ago, mikbone said:

The measles vaccine is 93% effective with one dose.  97% effective with 2 doses.

It is not 100% effective.

 

Neither were the small pox nor polio vaccines.

Edited by MarginOfError

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57 minutes ago, MarginOfError said:

This probably isn't true anymore.  It is estimated that somewhere between 65 and 70% of adults have some form of HPV. Remember, many of them are asymptomatic.

Note also that, at least in the U.S., more than 95% of people will have penetrative sex before they are married. 50% will have had sex before the age of 17.  The mean number of sexual partners for Americans is 7.2.  

While I appreciate the point you are trying to make, public health decisions need to operate in the world in which we live, not the world in which we wish to live.

I don't see how this addressed what I just said.  HPV is strictly a venerial disease, correct or not?

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My point is that it is relatively rare for people in the U.S. not to engage in some kind of sexual activity prior to marriage. Even if we succeed in convincing one person to remain chaste until marriage, the doesn't mean the eventual chosen partner has.  While that likelihood may increase if marriage is restricted to within the same faith community, it is no guarantee. Conversion, repentance, and divorce are situations in which a person may be on the marriage market after having had sexual partner(s). 

Thus, the recommendation is to get vaccinated.  With sufficiently broad vaccination over a generation or two that 60% of adults fact is likely to fall dramatically.

To put it in more personal terms, having my daughter get the HPV vaccine protects her against cervical cancers that may be a consequence of the sexual behaviors of her eventual husband, not of her own. (especially since he may have no idea if he has contracted HPV previously)

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40 minutes ago, MarginOfError said:

My point is that it is relatively rare for people in the U.S. not to engage in some kind of sexual activity prior to marriage. . . 

Yes, I got all that.  None of that nullifies my point that it is A) a completely preventable disease.  and B) That is is strictly a venereal disease.  It isn't like AIDS that can be transmitted via blood or other means. It is not like a cold that can be transmitted by casual contact.

40 minutes ago, MarginOfError said:

Thus, the recommendation is to get vaccinated. 

Yes, recommendation.  That's fine.  But ESPECIALLY when we find that the vaccine may work retroactively...

https://time.com/3828839/hpv-vaccine-works/

I don't understand the panic mentality that would mandate it.

15 minutes ago, MarginOfError said:

Measles in 2019 kills at 40 times the rate it did BEFORE WE HAD A VACCINE FOR IT

I need a clarification on this statement.

  • What was the mortality rate from measles out of the general population (before and after vaccinations were widely used)?
  • What was the mortality rate from measles out of those who contracted it (before and after vaccinations were widely used)?

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12 minutes ago, Mores said:

Yes, I got all that.  None of that nullifies my point that it is A) a completely preventable disease.  and B) That is is strictly a venereal disease.  It isn't like AIDS that can be transmitted via blood or other means. It is not like a cold that can be transmitted by casual contact.

Yes, recommendation.  That's fine.  But ESPECIALLY when we find that the vaccine may work retroactively...

https://time.com/3828839/hpv-vaccine-works/

I don't understand the panic mentality that would mandate it.

I need a clarification on this statement.

  • What was the mortality rate from measles out of the general population (before and after vaccinations were widely used)?
  • What was the mortality rate from measles out of those who contracted it (before and after vaccinations were widely used)?

It's the rate for those who contract the disease.

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2 minutes ago, MarginOfError said:

It's the rate for those who contract the disease.

As a statistician, do you have access to the stats before and after for both the general population and those who contracted it?

Then, can we cross reference that with general health conditions and sanitation conditions between eras?

Edited by Mores

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30 minutes ago, Mores said:

Yes, I got all that.  None of that nullifies my point that it is A) a completely preventable disease.  and B) That is is strictly a venereal disease.  It isn't like AIDS that can be transmitted via blood or other means. It is not like a cold that can be transmitted by casual contact.

Yes, recommendation.  That's fine.  But ESPECIALLY when we find that the vaccine may work retroactively...

https://time.com/3828839/hpv-vaccine-works/

I don't understand the panic mentality that would mandate it.

I need a clarification on this statement.

  • What was the mortality rate from measles out of the general population (before and after vaccinations were widely used)?
  • What was the mortality rate from measles out of those who contracted it (before and after vaccinations were widely used)?

The Measles virus has not genetically mutated in the past 60 years.

The host that are dying from the disease are likely immuno-compromised.

Lets face it people or children that would have died 60 years ago are living thur illness, or injury due to our improved medical system.  Plus all the medications that suppress the immune system that the population takes.

Statistics are a great tool, if you know or can interpret the numbers.

 

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8 minutes ago, Mores said:

As a statistician, do you have access to the stats before and after for both the general population and those who contracted it?

Then, can we cross reference that with general health conditions and sanitation conditions between eras?

Using these two sources, primarily
https://physiciansforinformedconsent.org/measles/dis/
https://vaxopedia.org/2018/04/15/when-was-the-last-measles-death-in-the-united-states/

Taking a 1960 US Population of ~ 180 million

and averaging out the US population to 325 million over the 2000 - 2018 time frame

Excuse my use of Excel.  It was convenient.

image.png.f31925278dc58fe00702f87b6c5815b9.png

Note that 1959 - 1962 represent the last few years since before the measles vaccine was introduced.  By that point, it had reached a historical low in deaths without the aid of the vaccine.  (What the vaccine did was prevent cases from developing)

image.png.832dc1c608055aa0f981827fed828369.png

 

The CDC has confirmed over 1000 cases of measles in the U.S. this year alone. https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/measles-outbreak/measles-cases-surpass-1-000-u-s-cdc-says-n1014261

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14 minutes ago, mikbone said:

The Measles virus has not genetically mutated in the past 60 years.

The host that are dying from the disease are likely immuno-compromised.

Lets face it people or children that would have died 60 years ago are living thur illness, or injury due to our improved medical system.  Plus all the medications that suppress the immune system that the population takes.

Statistics are a great tool, if you know or can interpret the numbers.

 

And for 60 years, the immuno-compromised have survived this disease because an aggressive vaccination program produced a large enough herd immunity that the disease was nearly eradicated. 

Our vaccination rate against measles has dipped to 91.1% and we're looking at over 1,000 cases this year already.  The efficacy of these vaccination programs has a very small tolerance before the whole things starts coming off the rails.

So, I'll repeat what you've said: Statistics are a great too, if you know or can interpret the numbers.

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36 minutes ago, MarginOfError said:

What the vaccine did was prevent cases from developing

image.png.832dc1c608055aa0f981827fed828369.png

I found the following:

  • Excel spreadsheet indicates mortality rate as a function of cases is 1 in 10,000 PRIOR to the introduction of vaccines.
  • Physicians For Informed Consent website says TODAY: 1 in 10,000 cases is fatal. (As opposed to the 40 in your spreadsheet).

Are you aware of any background information to account for that discrepancy?

  • The chart shows a decrease in measles mortality prior to the introduction of the vaccine.  
  • We don't have data for the intervening years.

Is it possible that the decrease in both cases as well as mortality rate are both related to other factors such as better health care and sanitation conditions and knowledge of communicable diseases, etc.?  Could it be that the vaccine itself is providing only a small benefit?

What I'm wondering is if the vaccine only keeps us "comfortable".  Is the actual mortality largely due to other factors (as MB suggests)?  It seems the data is insufficient to answer these fairly basic questions.

Edited by Mores

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24 minutes ago, MarginOfError said:

And for 60 years, the immuno-compromised have survived this disease because an aggressive vaccination program produced a large enough herd immunity that the disease was nearly eradicated. 

Our vaccination rate against measles has dipped to 91.1% and we're looking at over 1,000 cases this year already.  The efficacy of these vaccination programs has a very small tolerance before the whole things starts coming off the rails.

So, I'll repeat what you've said: Statistics are a great too, if you know or can interpret the numbers.

I think you miss my point.

This thread is about the government mandating vaccinations.

There is a disconnect between reality, science / statistics, news reports, and legislation.

I understand herd immunity and statistics. My kids are vaccinated for MMR.  They will not be for HPV.  And even as a medical professional I refuse the flu shot every year.  It don’t work.

Satan’s platform was mandatory compliance.  I will continue to fight mandatory compliance whenever possible.

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4 minutes ago, Mores said:

I found the following:

  • Excel spreadsheet indicates mortality rate as a function of cases is 1 in 10,000 PRIOR to the introduction of vaccines.
  • Physicians For Informed Consent website says TODAY: 1 in 10,000 cases is fatal. (As opposed to the 40 in your spreadsheet).

Are you aware of any background information to account for that discrepancy?

  •  

They may be looking at world wide cases.  The math I presented only accounts for U.S. cases, and is pretty straightforward.

Quote
  • The chart shows a decrease in measles mortality prior to the introduction of the vaccine.  
  • We don't have data for the intervening years.

Is it possible that the decrease in both cases as well as mortality rate are both related to other factors such as better health care and sanitation conditions and knowledge of communicable diseases, etc.?  Could it be that the vaccine itself is providing only a small benefit?

Here's a better chart (provided on https://www.historyofvaccines.org/content/graph-us-measles-cases). The vaccine may not have contributed much to the reduction in mortality. But it certainly contributed to the reduction in cases. And there can be no measles-mortality without contracting measles (to say nothing of any of the complications and/or side effects it can bring).

I wouldn't call this "small benefit"

image.png.1fbbd3cd4bf4585568c9e9426344b736.png

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6 minutes ago, mikbone said:

I think you miss my point.

This thread is about the government mandating vaccinations.

There is a disconnect between reality, science / statistics, news reports, and legislation.

I understand herd immunity and statistics. My kids are vaccinated for MMR.  They will not be for HPV.  And even as a medical professional I refuse the flu shot every year.  It don’t work.

Satan’s platform was mandatory compliance.  I will continue to fight mandatory compliance whenever possible.

Woah, hold on there...let's look at what you had said that prompted that response:

Quote

The Measles virus has not genetically mutated in the past 60 years.

The host that are dying from the disease are likely immuno-compromised.

Lets face it people or children that would have died 60 years ago are living thur illness, or injury due to our improved medical system.  Plus all the medications that suppress the immune system that the population takes.

Statistics are a great tool, if you know or can interpret the numbers.

There's nothing in there about government mandated compliance, choice, agency, or any such concept. To be honest, it reads as "meh, they were the weak ones who would have died anyway, so why should we care?"

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12 minutes ago, mikbone said:

Satan’s platform was mandatory compliance.  I will continue to fight mandatory compliance whenever possible.

And for the record, Satan's platform was not "mandatory compliance." It was more like "Only one option to choose."  

While those have the same outcome, they are not the same premise.  

The dispute at hand is whether and where it is moral to impose on one's ability to choose.  Generally speaking, I don't have much problem making such impositions when your misguided and boneheaded decisions will negate my own well informed and responsible decisions (and because I don't intend this to be personal, I will state that goes both ways).

This is why I question mandatory seat belt laws for adults--an adult that doesn't wear a seat belt injures himself only.  But I don't have any problem with public smoking bans; I shouldn't have to be ill because someone else is being a dope.  Because of issues of herd immunity and efficacy, vaccinations of communicable diseases fall more along the lines of the smoking ban than they do the seat belt ban. (Where HPV and flu vaccines fit in there is an interesting debate, to which I haven't really committed to a side as far as compliance. But I think that, barring health reasons, people are selfish fools not to avail themselves of them). 

But I'm open to the idea of accountability for choices.  As a compromise, I propose that vaccinated citizens pay the medical costs of all people who contract measles from a vaccinated person, while unvaccinated citizens pay the medical costs of all those who contract measles from an unvaccinated person.

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11 minutes ago, MarginOfError said:

Woah, hold on there...let's look at what you had said that prompted that response:

There's nothing in there about government mandated compliance, choice, agency, or any such concept. To be honest, it reads as "meh, they were the weak ones who would have died anyway, so why should we care?"

What I said was an answer to @Mores question about measles mortality.  As well as commentary from your statement

“Um, 11 deaths out of 2,671 cases.  Or about 4.1 deaths per 1,000 cases.  Now consider that by 1962 (before the measles vaccine was developed), the mortality rate was about 1 per 10,000 cases.  Let me put those in the same units

1959 - 1962: 1 per 10,000 cases
2000 - 2019: 41 per 10,000 cases”

I was pointing out the reason why Measles mortality has increased.  The disease has not become more virulent.  The host has become more immuno-compromised.

That is science.  

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7 minutes ago, MarginOfError said:

But I'm open to the idea of accountability for choices.  As a compromise, I propose that vaccinated citizens pay the medical costs of all people who contract measles from a vaccinated person, while unvaccinated citizens pay the medical costs of all those who contract measles from an unvaccinated person.

 

So more government...

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