Quantum Computing and the Dunning-Kruger Effect


Jamie123
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I've been a subscriber to Physics World for many years now, and these days it always comes with an extra "Focus" magazine. This month's is all about computing - with the Internet of Things, Raspberry Pi and (naturally) quantum computing. It starts with this very interesting graph:

quantum.thumb.png.b07b9357be892f0590fb231d35bcf54f.png

When a new technology is proposed, expectations are high, but as it is developed problems emerge and the hype falls off. Quantum computing is just one example. When I was an undergraduate everyone was talking about "optical computers" - then it was "molecular electronics" and goodness-knows what else. Do you ever hear of these things now?

However, if enough researchers continue to pursue an idea, the problems are gradually overcome and the technology does achieve usefulness.

I felt sure I'd seen this before, and sure enough it's the well-known Dunning-Kruger graph:

Dunning-Kruger.png.4a6d211c07d92bbb8dc2f2271503b2d8.png 

In case you don't know, the Dunning-Kruger effect is the idea that a people who have a little knowledge of something have an inflated confidence in that knowledge, and that confidence wanes as they learn more. Dunning and Kruger were inspired by the peculiar story of McArthur Wheeler (which you'll easily find on YouTube or Google) but Alexander Pope was also familiar with the phenomenon:

Quote

A little learning is a dangerous thing ;

Drink deep, or taste not the Pierian spring :

There shallow draughts intoxicate the brain,

And drinking largely sobers us again

When I post things here, I'm usually at the peak of Mount Stupid. That's because I've been here long enough not to be worried about looking stupid, and I know full well that someone like Vort or Anatess (particularly Anatess) will at least try to help me down the other side. Some people (I think Mores is in this category) take me a bit more seriously than I would wish, but everyone here always helps me get a wider perspective on things. (Even of I don't always change my views!)

I really appreciate everyone on this forum - thanks!

Edited by Jamie123
Better explanation of DK effect.
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