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The COVID thread

Emmanuel Goldstein

By Emmanuel Goldstein,
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mirkwood
mirkwood

You can be briefly detained by police if they have reasonable suspicion that you committed a crime. Terry v. Ohio, 392 U.S. 1 (1968). Those of you throwing around "innocent until proven guilty" h

Just_A_Guy
Just_A_Guy

Weird thought here, and I don’t know if I actually believe it; but I thought I’d float it for public dissection: I’m not convinced our society values human life as much as we like to say we do.

Vort
Vort

Based largely on various news reports, I'm beginning to modify my previous position that this is all a vast overreaction to what is in effect an unusually virulent and nasty flu. But even if the worst

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Vort

Vort

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 2/21/2020 at 11:52 AM, NeuroTypical said:

This article seems reasonable and rational...

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

A correction in usage of terminology that I expect no one will listen to:

COVID-19 stands for "coronavirus disease 2019". Note the word "disease". COVID-19 refers to the illness, and not directly to the virus that causes that illness. The virus is properly called "the COVID-19 virus". (EDIT: I think the technical designation is SARS-CoV 2.) Saying "COVID-19" is like saying "a cold" or "the flu"; it's a sickness that is caused by some virus. But when we say "a cold", we are never talking about the virus that causes the cold (which, interestingly and perhaps ironically, is a coronavirus). Rather, we're just talking about the sickness. If someone has an infection of a cold-causing virus, but has no symptoms, then he doesn't have a cold. If someone has the influenza virus but no symptoms, then he doesn't have the flu. If someone has the COVID-19 virus but is asymptomatic, then he doesn't have COVID-19.

No one pays attention to usage. Bugs the heck out of me.

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anatess2

anatess2

Posted
Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, Godless said:

This probably isn't good...

https://www.gzeromedia.com/coronavirus-the-politics

Ah yep.  And our lovely Mittens went to bat again.  I can't believe I supported that guy for President.  He has shown time and time again he has terrible executive judgment.

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Guest MormonGator

Guest MormonGator

Posted
Posted



Fascinating interview. Fumento, an excellent journalist, makes the interesting (and correct) point that if you get it, you probably won't know that you have it. So there's that. 

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JohnsonJones

JohnsonJones

Posted
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1 hour ago, MormonGator said:


Fascinating interview. Fumento, an excellent journalist, makes the interesting (and correct) point that if you get it, you probably won't know that you have it. So there's that. 

A little long to listen to but it has some interesting items.

I heard an interview today with which explained why there is such a great concern.  It is extremely contagious (as a coronavirus), has a longer than normal durability on surfaces (instead of hours, it is days and perhaps weeks), and with the current statistics we have it has around a 2-3% mortality rate.

The flu on the otherhand has a .1% mortality rate in the US which resulted in 35K deaths last year in the US.

The interesting thing was that it was also stated that up to 80% of those who have the virus actually show minor, mild, or even no symptoms.  Only around 20% have serious symptoms, but those symptoms are very serious.  They include serious infections of pneumonia which is one of the leading items for death in these cases. 

They also brought up some other items that they may not know how many actually have the virus at this point.  With the lack of testing in the US and other locations it could be that it is far more widespread than anyone thinks at this point (saying this in light of the new California Case where they cannot trace it back to China, at least at the point the interview was taken).

The mortality rate is thus 20X what the flu could be.  No one knows what the result is or how it's going to turn out at this point.  It could (hopefully) be contained and not too serious.  The difficulty is looking at how it spreads, how contagious it is, and what appears to be the mortality, it could be a very bad situation brewing up.  This is what they are really concerned about.  If it turns out the worst case scenario is reality rather than what they hope, they are wanting to be prepared for it.  They still feel as if they may actually be behind the ball on this situation.

Interview can currently be listened to here...it IS NPR which I know many consider very liberal so that's the warning on the liberal slant.  I found it informative though.

NPR morning News Brief

Under the Coronavirus, U.S. Response, New Delhi Riots interview.

That in mind, with the video you posted it brings up a question I had not thought about previously.  When we are calculating the mortality rate we are looking at China (which as your video states has 90% of the cases and 90% of the deaths, not as many outside of China).

I wonder what the mortality rate is for the rest of the world when we take the Chinese cases out of the equation.  Is it still at 2-3% or does it fall drastically.  Perhaps it will be no worse than the average bad flu or cold.  I do not know, but it could be an interesting statistic to look at or compare.

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Guest MormonGator

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Just now, JohnsonJones said:

A little long to listen

Bro, did you really just go there? Dude, your posts are 45,000 words long and you are complaining about the length of the video? Really dude? Really? 

(totally playing JJ) 

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Vort

Vort

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, JohnsonJones said:

It is extremely contagious (as a coronavirus), has a longer than normal durability on surfaces (instead of hours, it is days and perhaps weeks), and with the current statistics we have it has around a 2-3% mortality rate.

The flu on the otherhand has a .1% mortality rate in the US which resulted in 35K deaths last year in the US.

The interesting thing was that it was also stated that up to 80% of those who have the virus actually show minor, mild, or even no symptoms.  Only around 20% have serious symptoms, but those symptoms are very serious.  They include serious infections of pneumonia which is one of the leading items for death in these cases. 

They also brought up some other items that they may not know how many actually have the virus at this point.  With the lack of testing in the US and other locations it could be that it is far more widespread than anyone thinks at this point (saying this in light of the new California Case where they cannot trace it back to China, at least at the point the interview was taken).

The mortality rate is thus 20X what the flu could be.

Note that this is almost certainly incorrect. Who is diagnosed with the COVID-19 coronavirus? Those who show no symptoms? Of course not. They never get diagnosed Those who have the regular symptoms of a cold? Of course not. They just assume they have a cold and stay home for a few days. The only people who get diagnosed are those who get sick enough to go to a doctor.

Thus, if 80% of those who contract the virus are asymptomatic or nearly so, it's likely that most of those 80% never get diagnosed. Of the 20% who do get diagnosed, there is a 2-3% mortality rate. Thus, the true mortality rate for those who contract the COVID-19 virus would be more like 0.4% or 0.5%, higher than the flu mortality rate but in the same ballpark.

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Guest MormonGator

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6 minutes ago, Vort said:

Thus, the true mortality rate for those who contract the COVID-19 virus would be more like 0.4% or 0.5%, higher than the flu mortality rate but in the same ballpark.

Right. And because COVID-19 is new and scary, people lose their minds over it. Look at the markets right now. It's astounding how gullible people are and how easily they panic. This ain't the Hot Zone people. 

Disturbing too.  

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NeuroTypical

NeuroTypical

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Vort said:

Who is diagnosed with the COVID-19 coronavirus? Those who show no symptoms? Of course not. They never get diagnosed Those who have the regular symptoms of a cold? Of course not. They just assume they have a cold and stay home for a few days. The only people who get diagnosed are those who get sick enough to go to a doctor.

Plus, almost all of the deaths are in China, home to government control of information, and not-top-notch healthcare.  

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10 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

home to government control of information,

No one will say the Chinese are free and have open discourse, but keep in mind this isn't North Korea, especially in 2020. The Chinese government tries to censor everything, and again, there are serious problems there, but it's getting harder and harder for them to control the population, especially with the younger generation. The internet, and their slow introduction of capitalism, has changed everything. 

Talk radio is booming and there are punk bands in China that have surprisingly open anti-authority lyrics.  

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NeuroTypical

NeuroTypical

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A smart buddy recommended this guy's opinion on things:

Quote

It has been a month since I last posted on covid-19 (the disease caused by the organism SARS-CoV-2, but which I will call by the disease name or just ‘the bug’ or ‘the virus’ for short). I have had a lot of questions sent my way over the last few days, so please see my summary below. First and foremost, however, let me say that you should get your data from the WHO or a public health agency of a country you trust, be it the CDC, PHE, ECDC, or whatever you feel is reputable. I was really happy to see people verifying my background before sharing my earlier comments. The web is full of nonsense and clickbait, and that includes most of what used to be called the news. Before you start making decisions dealing with the safety of you or your family, a bit of homework is worthwhile.

Summary:
The genie is out of the bottle and is not going back in. We have a lot more information about the bug than we did a month ago, and every day brings more. However, this is not going to go the way of SARS where we control it and it just goes away, or even Ebola where we have rare, geographically limited outbreaks. Best guess is that this will be a health problem around the globe until we come up with a vaccine.

The virus:
The past month of research has confirmed a few points about the bug. It is roughly as infectious as influenza (R0 value of 2.2-2.8, so each untreated case will tend to infect 2-3 people). With lab-confirmed cases outside of China the mortality rate has been below 1%, and it is much more dangerous for the elderly or those with serious underlying conditions. To the best of my knowledge, no otherwise healthy people under 30 have died of the disease (though I’m sure there have been a few cases). If you are over 80, however, the mortality rate is roughly 10-15%. Health care workers are easily infected, but at last count the death rate in this group was around 0.3%. The virus is spread in heavy droplets, which fall out of the air relatively quickly and normally only travel a meter or two.

There are a few new things we know. The virus seems to be able to survive on surfaces for 7-9 days, depending on the type of surface and the temperature and humidity in the area. Not everyone has symptoms when their labs come back positive. And there are increasing reports of people who have recovered becoming infectious again weeks later. If these are verified, this is a problem.

There are major points which we don’t know as of yet: How many asymptomatic cases are there for every case that gets sick? If this number is high, then the death rate is much lower than we thought. What is the exact incubation period, as this will tell us how long we need to isolate people after possible exposures? Are people more likely to acquire the infection through airborne droplets or through virus on surfaces? Do kids that become infected spread the disease without becoming ill, like the germ magnets they are?

One other big question; is this seasonal? Other coronaviruses in humans (though not all) are seasonal. If this bug is seasonal then the northern hemisphere will be saved by spring and the southern hemisphere has a month or two to prepare. If it isn’t, hold on, its going to get rocky.

How to avoid it:
With the information we have today, 28 February, the best way to not get sick is to avoid people who are coughing and/or feverish. There is no cure, and a vaccine is likely 12 months off, at least (still no vaccine for SARS). This is where the comparison with influenza falls down. If you want to avoid the flu you can get vaccinated and then carry on with your life. It isn’t perfect, but it helps. This virus doesn’t have that option so if you spend time close to a person who is infectious (15 minutes within 2 meters is the current advice) then you are likely to become infected yourself. And masks, at least masks that haven’t been professionally fit-tested and disposed of daily, aren’t going to help. The risk from handing a shopping cart handle with the virus on it and then rubbing your eye is unknown, but assumed to be high.

So, if you are in public and someone is ill, avoid them. Wash your hands often, and when you can’t, use hand sanitiser (not perfect, but better than nothing). Try to not touch your face. If the disease is in your community follow advice and avoid large crowds. If you are taking care of a sick loved one, wash well and dispose of everything as frequently as possible. There will be lots of specific advice from your Ministry of Health or equivalent so I won’t cover it all here. But basically, you are looking to keep a distance between you and anyone infectious, and to wash your hands often.

Keep yourself healthy. Exercise, eat well, and take care of yourself and anyone you live with. If you are healthy and get infected, the disease is much less likely to be anything worse than a cold. If you ever needed a prompt to improve your health, well, here you go.

We will be getting more information over coming months, so the advice might change. This is a good thing…it means your public health agency is watching the research and following best practices. It doesn’t mean they don’t know what they are doing, it means they are figuring out the best thing to do. Remember, this is all new.

What’s next:
As of today, Feb 28, the situation looks a bit grim. China’s numbers are improving but they have achieved this through measures that are unlikely to be tolerated in many other countries. For the last two days there have been more new cases outside China than inside. Today there were more cases in South Korea alone than in China. We have major outbreaks in South Korea, Italy, and Iran. And while South Korea may control theirs, the borderless travel in Europe has allowed for broad spread of the Italian outbreak, and the cluster based in Iran is generally out of control.

Today 50 countries, or roughly 25% of the countries on the globe, have reported at least a case. This is no longer a Chinese or even an East Asian disease. This is global. The window in which we could have prevented a worldwide spread is closing (or long closed). Chances are good that many or most of us will be infected with the virus over the coming 24 months.

Strategies will soon move from exclusion of the virus to mitigation. Once it is acknowledged that the organism will spread countries and organisations will try to delay the process as much as possible. There are two very good reasons to disturb your lives to try and do this:
• We learn more about the organism every day. The longer we delay infections, the better our health care for covid-19 will be and the more likely we will have a vaccine or anti-viral cocktail available.
• If everybody is sick at once societies freeze up. Out of confirmed cases less than a quarter get anything more than a mild cold, but that still could mean huge numbers of folks either ill or taking care of the ill at home or in health care facilities. If enough people are sick at once critical things such as food deliveries, public safety, and utilities can stop working.

So, though closures and quarantines may seem like an over-reaction, there is a logic behind them (Japan just announced a closure of all schools for the entire month of March). They allow us to spread the impact of the disease over time, or give us time to come up with better responses.

This all sounds apocalyptic, but it is important to remember that this virus is not smallpox or even measles. Everyone will not get it at once, and for the majority, probably the large majority, it will be no more than a cold. There are groups at serious risk, however, as people live longer and with more serious health conditions than at any time in human history. These groups are vulnerable, and they need to be protected as best we can.

My prediction? A global outbreak with maybe half of us acquiring the disease over the next two years, though most will never know they were infected. Call it a year if the bug isn’t seasonal. An impact on our health care system more significant than the worst flu season any of us have ever experienced, with hospitals full and lots of folks receiving care at home. Some closures of borders, schools, and a strong incentive for anyone with any form of illness to avoid work and public places/transit. A death rate somewhere below 0.1% of the population, higher in densely populated countries or places with low health care resources. A big economic hit. But though this will feel huge to us, our grandparents that remember polio summers and parents dead of the Spanish Flu might differ. We just haven’t had to deal with this in a long, long time and so we have built a ‘just-in-time’ society with no slack in the system. While efficient, it makes our society really vulnerable to this kind of shock.

Remember though, predictions are generally worth slightly less than the electricity it takes to send them on. We don’t know what will happen. We haven’t done this, with this set of circumstances, before. If I’m wrong and you bring this up in a year, I’ll buy you an adult beverage.

What to do:
No change here. Get healthy. Put away a month of food and water, just in case, and rotate it as needed. If you don’t have any savings, now might be the time to start, and having a bit of actual cash on hand never hurts. Gold is already over-priced, spend the money on a pizza and a bottle of wine to share with the neighbours you never talk to. Talk to your work to make sure they have sick leave and social distancing policies in place before the bug hits. And when the local public health folks cancel something, or close the schools, or tell you to stay home for 14 days, understand that they know exactly what a pain it is to listen and follow their instructions, but there are very good reasons for it. And please, please, please, don’t spread nonsense. Check your facts before posting them. If somebody is selling a cure rather than working with the public health folks to distribute it, or making horrific claims that nobody else can verify, then it is fake. This is already happening. Don’t make things worse by helping these vultures communicate.

Basically, take care of yourself and do everything you can to be able to take care of others. Even if this all blows over, that’s never wasted effort.

Author - John Ryan McLane,  BSN, MPH, RN

Edited by NeuroTypical
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Vort

Vort

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31 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

 

Quote

It has been a month since I last posted on covid-19 (the disease caused by the organism SARS-CoV-2, but which I will call by the disease name or just ‘the bug’ or ‘the virus’ for short).

See? SEE?! This guy gets it, even though he intentionally misuses the terminology for simplicity's sake. At least he warns everyone what he's doing.

Usage, people. It's Important®.

EDIT: After reading through this, I feel like a prophet. Pat that man on the back! (He says to the mirror.)

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