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How do epidemics/pandemics stop?

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17 hours ago, Anddenex said:
On 2/9/2020 at 5:27 AM, Moonbeast32 said:

Is it a chemical reaction? My understanding is that the body of a virus is is made up of a bunch of reactionary proteins that activate upon contact with a cell, sort of like a mouse trap. Its more machine than organism. It has no organelles, no locomotion, no sensory input nor output. They're basically self replicating spring loaded traps that float aimlessly until brushing up against an infect-able cell.

I could easily be misunderstanding the meaning behind what I have read, for example, "Unlike human cells or bacteria, viruses don't contain the chemical machinery (enzymes) needed to carry out the chemical reactions for life." (emphasis mine)

Chemical reaction is "a process that involves rearrangement of the molecular or ionic structure of a substance."

Viruses use the chemical reaction of cells to replicate, or the chemical machinery they themselves do not have. Again, I could be wrong in how I am understanding and reading it.

All life is chemistry, just as all chemistry is physics.

You can explain chemical reactions using physics, which is why there's a discipline called physical chemistry. But it's laborious. Physics is too fine-grained a tool to use understandably in general when talking about chemistry. It just gets overwhelming to talk about every chemical event in terms of the underlying physics. "The genesis of this chemical reaction is based on the valence electrons reverting to a least-energy state, blah blah blah blah blah..." Once you establish the relationship between physics and chemistry, you can chunk the physics concepts together and quit dealing with them individually. That's what constitutes chemistry.

Similarly, you can explain biology using chemistry, which is why there's a discipline called biochemistry. But it's laborious. Chemistry is too fine-grained a tolo to use understandably in general when talking about biology. It just gets overwhelming to talk about every biological event in terms of the underlying chemistry. "The genesis of this biological reaction is based on the chemical attraction between the various amino acid pairs, blah blah blah blah blah..." Once you establish the relationship between chemistry and biology, you can chunk the chemistry concepts together and quit dealing with them individually. That's what constitutes biology.

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1 hour ago, mordorbund said:

Applying safety measures and risk management are not panicking, nor are they the results of panic. I would argue that in many ways they prevent panic.

Sure, I wouldn't argue any of that. 

What I would argue against is listening to people who 1) aren't experts or 2) are experts, but not in the field of virology or 3) are experts in the field of virology but have never studied the Coronavirus. 

For example, your GP might be an excellent general practitioner, but that doesn't mean she knows everything about the Ebola virus. So when she tells you to grab your shotgun and run to the hills, you (generic!) can say "Oh, a medical professional told me this is the end. I hear the trumpets of doomsday." you (generic) are doing the wrong thing. And yes, spreading panic. 

 

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3 hours ago, mordorbund said:

Applying safety measures and risk management are not panicking, nor are they the results of panic. I would argue that in many ways they prevent panic.

On a related note (i.e. what this brought to my mind)....denial can be a protective response.  It keeps people from panicking and screaming,  They say people panicking and creating a mob is actually rare.  It does happen, but certain factors must be in place.  It's more common that people experience denial.  On 9/11 some people made phone calls, gathered up work stuff, even a novel in the desk before ambling calmly to the stairs.   

But...if one stays in denial too long, that can be deadly.  For example in one of the biggest hotel fires in US History there was plenty of time for all the patrons to escape, but there was a whole table of people who simply didn't get up and leave (denial) and they died of smoke inhalation.  

You know how fire can warm you up or burn down your house, denial is much the same.  I think that applies here as well.  Caution and education is warranted, but not panic.  
 

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2 hours ago, MormonGator said:

For example, your GP might be an excellent general practitioner, but that doesn't mean she knows everything about the Ebola virus. So when she tells you to grab your shotgun and run to the hills, you (generic!) can say "Oh, a medical professional told me this is the end. I hear the trumpets of doomsday." you (generic) are doing the wrong thing. And yes, spreading panic. 

That's just it though. Maybe I don't frequent the right parts of the Internet and maybe I listen to the wrong radio shows, but I'm not hearing anyone tell me to run to the hills. Sure, you're employing some hyperbole here, but I haven't heard any of the myths from your infographic. I have yet to hear anyone tell me the corona virus is "the most dangerous virus". I have been told that it's largely confined to China, and specifically the Hubei province. I have been told it has a 2% fatality and that it spreads as readily as your standard cold.

Because of this, I have been told to take preventative measures. I have not been told to "buy a hazmat suit". I have been told to wash my hands, cough into my sleeve, and work remotely for 2 weeks after traveling from China.

I haven't been told about the origins of this virus. I have not been told to "blame China" (as a nation) or dirty Chinese students (or other insensitive statements about international students). I  have not been told to panic, or even disrupt my life. Other people with plans to travel to/from China do experience disruptions, but it doesn't look to affect more than 4-6 months of plans.

MG, the problem with your exaggerated statements is that 1) via Poe's law they become indistinguishable from denialist arguments and a) essentially are encouragement to disregard the simple preventative measures that are getting shared. Additionally, b) any agreement we have on reasonable preventative measures are lost in the exaggeration. 2) The pendulum can also swing the other way. By saying there is a panic, you convince those who trust you to look for that panic. If you're an influential person then you create the very panic you're speaking out against.

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11 minutes ago, mordorbund said:

I haven't been told about the origins of this virus. I have not been told to "blame China" (as a nation) or dirty Chinese students (or other insensitive statements about international students). I  have not been told to panic, or even disrupt my life.

Good, that makes me feel better. Very glad we've seen different things. 

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23 minutes ago, MormonGator said:

Good, that makes me feel better. Very glad we've seen different things. 

The headlines i have seen lean towards what you are saying MG.  They convey grave concern and urgency. I think media (and they're all guilty of it) do this intentionally to drive traffic. Okay thats a no brainer, but you know what I mean.

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19 minutes ago, MormonGator said:

MG, did you actually read these? They are literally nonsense, especially the last two (as might be expected from those sources). Consider just the very end of the Washington Post story, which dredges up ninetheen-century (!!) reactions and then acts as if they have some modern relevance:

Just look at the Instagram feed of another school in my neighborhood, the University of California, Berkeley. In a since-deleted post, the university’s health services center listed xenophobia toward Asians as a “normal reaction” to the spread of the coronavirus.

That might have been “normal” in the 19th century, but not today.

Well then, Mr. Pomfret, if it's not "normal" today, then why are you bringing it up? You acknowledge that Berkeley, one of the most notoriously leftist schools in the nation, deleted the post. So why are you bringing up 19th-century norms that, BY YOUR OWN ADMISSION, are not today's norms?

Could it be........the leftist agenda?

Bingo.

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1 hour ago, MormonGator said:

Agree totally. Racism doesn't exist. It's all a left wing conspiracy. 

What are you agreeing to, MG? I said nothing about racism not existing. Why do you imply such a manifestly false thing? Just so that LiterateParakeet will laugh at your untrue insult?

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1 hour ago, MormonGator said:

Agree totally. Racism doesn't exist. It's all a left wing conspiracy. 

Did I miss the post where someone said racism doesn't exist? Did somebody post that racist acts don't happen? MG, this is what I was talking about earlier with hyperbolic statements. I can tell that you're writing sarcastically, but I can't tell how much racism you think is getting manifested here. I can't tell if you think it's systemic via corporate and governmental policies or if it's widespread in Western (or even Asian) cultures beyond the norm (see your article's description of Japan's treatment of Chinese people), or if they're only in pockets.

 

41 minutes ago, LiterateParakeet said:

MG, thanks for posting these.  Wow, I had no idea  I appreciate the information. 

LP, this proves @Vort's latest post (and the portion of mine that saw the "racist" argument as exaggerated). You're well-read. You're not ignorant of the Corona virus and it's effects. Why did you have no idea? Is it because racism just seems normal to you and it took these articles to recognize how insensitive you're being? Or is it because you don't know any Chinese people? Or is it because you just haven't seen any of this "normal" behavior first-hand?

 

Just to add to the anecdata, I just spoke with some of my coworkers from China. Their families back in China are dealing with the disruption the virus has brought but are healthy and still ok economically. I asked if they've been treated any differently since the outbreak, and they said no. One even said that he'd read an article online about how Chinese people are getting treated "in Europe (in Italy)" and said he's not experiencing anything like that.

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2 hours ago, LiterateParakeet said:

MG, thanks for posting these.  Wow, I had no idea  I appreciate the information. 

In other news... Birds of Prey's bomb at the box office proves most superhero fans are misogynist incels.

Fake news gonna fake fake fake fake fake fake.

Watch MG say anatess2 denies the existence of misogynist incels...

Edited by anatess2

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21 hours ago, mordorbund said:

LP, this proves @Vort's latest post (and the portion of mine that saw the "racist" argument as exaggerated). You're well-read. You're not ignorant of the Corona virus and it's effects. Why did you have no idea? 

I was surprised because even though my newsfeed has several articles about Coronavirus daily, I hadn't thought about how this would turn into another excuse for racism to rear up, and be more acceptable to some.  

Granted I shouldn't have been surprised as this is human nature (natural man), but I wasn't paying enough attention and I was a bit naive. 

That's why I appreciated @MormonGator sharing these articles so I can be better educated and less naive and absorbed with my own problems. 

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3 minutes ago, LiterateParakeet said:

I was surprised because even though my newsfeed has several articles about Coronavirus daily, I hadn't thought about how this would turn into another excuse for racism to rear up, and be more acceptable to some.  

Granted I shouldn't have been surprised as this is human nature (natural man), but I wasn't paying enough attention and I was a bit naive. 

That's why I appreciated @MormonGator sharing these articles so I can be better educated and less naive and absorbed with my own problems. 

Fear can bring out the worst in people.  Which is one of the reason fear mongering is bad. (Which is not the same as proper warning so one can be prepared)

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3 minutes ago, estradling75 said:

Fear can bring out the worst in people.  Which is one of the reason fear mongering is bad. (Which is not the same as proper warning so one can be prepared)

I agree fear can bring out the worst in people. Fortunately for us church members, I've learned from my experiences though that if we take our fears to the Lord in faith, He can turn that weakness into a strength.  

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I hope it is not as bad as some are saying it is (not all though).

I read in the news that they expect that it is going to hit the US (not a few cases, but actually start to spread and such).  I'm one of those older individuals, so it is a concern to me when they say that most deaths don't affect the healthy adult, but those that are young children and the older adults.  I still have to teach classes which is concerning to me as I cannot simply skip out of work.  If the kids/students (meaning college age adults) get this, invariably someone will bring it to class.

Edited by JohnsonJones
clarification on what I meant by kids

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On 1/27/2020 at 2:32 PM, MormonGator said:

It IS a good thing, but it's illogical of you (generic) to be planning to run to the hills (metal reference, get it? Get it? Yeah, you get it.) over a virus that has a 2% mortality rate, yet refuse to get a flu shot (20% mortality rate). If you plan on "hunkering down" over Corona, you really should have been doing that for every flu season. Simply because of you know....odds. During every panic, people lose the ability to reason first.

But we do agree that you should be prepared. 

 

Source? (re 20% vs 2%)  

Also, food for thought :

Also, hello- haven't been back here in a while.  :)

Edited by ztodd

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5 hours ago, ztodd said:

Yeah, I wondered if I should bring that up too. I'm not going to go digging for sources, but I've been hearing that flu case fatality rates are thought to be around 0.1% in an average year. 20% mortality should be self-evidently false as we don't see one in five people drop dead every year from the flu (not even one in 20 assuming a 20% case fatality rate and a 1/4 of the population being infected). Even in the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic that is so widely touted as the worst in recent history, the death rate among those infected is predicted to be around 2-3% (according to Wikipedia for what it's worth), which is quite comparable to what we are seeing with the new Coronavirus, which puts the latest outbreak potentially among the worst viral killer in over century, but the common seasonal flu is nowhere near this catastrophic. It won't be the end of the world, but it is certainly worth taking some precautions such as making sure some food storage is in place and so on... nothing Church leaders haven't advocated for years :)

 

Edited by SpiritDragon

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I am convinced that the best method to defeat the corona virus it to worry it will kill you, your friends and your family.  It is scientifically proven that 97% of the things we worry about never happen.  Nothing could be more effective than worrying.

 

The Traveler

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