Emmanuel Goldstein

Church has issued a statement on Covid-19

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First I will make a disclaimer with my claimer.  Science depends on solid metrics. Pseudo science loves statistics mixed with and cultivated through bias.  I have attempted to obtain and properly analyze data from available metrics.  I am not an expert in viruses or the medical field - but I am an expert in complex supply chain and automated material handling.   I have learned that it is easy to develop "theories" that from all appearances explain the dynamics of a complex system.  Sometimes such theories pan out but mostly they fail.  A primary reason is because a critical parameter was not considered properly.  

@anatess2made an interesting observation with a focus on death rates.  But I wonder if the metrics we have been given concerning death rates is accurate.  For example - I am not sure if the death rate has properly analyzed the difference of dying of some other condition with COVID in the mix and dying uniquely because of COVID.

But I think this is only part of the problem.   How is COVID transmitted?  How effective is wearing a mask - especially outdoors?  What is the effect of ultraviolet rays on the virus?  How much spread has been the result of asymptomatic infections?   We are told that social distancing (and other precautions) may slow the spread (flatten the curve) but will not stop the spread.  I am still confused why low risk individuals should social distance?  The line is that they can spread the virus asymptomatically.  I am not so sure.  But even if that is the case if high risk individuals are taking proper percussion - what is really the science?

In short - there is a lot a call to listen to the science.  I am trying to be sure I am following science and not pseudo science. 

 

The Traveler

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3 minutes ago, Traveler said:

I wonder if the metrics we have been given concerning death rates is accurate.  For example - I am not sure if the death rate has properly analyzed the difference of dying of some other condition with COVID in the mix and dying uniquely because of COVID.

Colorado reports both "dying with COVID" and "dying of COVID" numbers.

image.thumb.png.5190e446c493d746e761e2c302def18c.png

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7 minutes ago, Traveler said:

What is the effect of ultraviolet rays on the virus? 

Deadly to the virus within minutes.  The DHS group tasked with rapid response to viral threats studied the thing in March and released their findings.  UV rays kill it faster than bleach or alcohol.  These findings were released at one of the Trump press conferences.  We may remember it as the press conference where the whole world was mocking Trump for thinking about drinking bleach and swallowing UV light bulbs.  

I apparently was the only person on earth who was paying attention to the 10 minutes of press conference preceding Trump's comments.  

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2 hours ago, NeuroTypical said:

Colorado reports both "dying with COVID" and "dying of COVID" numbers.

image.thumb.png.5190e446c493d746e761e2c302def18c.png

This can't be right.  1 in 21 cases result in death??? That's 10x the worst number that has been offered by any other source. How did they come to that?

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15 minutes ago, Carborendum said:

This can't be right.  1 in 21 cases result in death??? That's 10x the worst number that has been offered by any other source. How did they come to that?

I have seen the same number (about 5%) bandied about in various forums this past week. To be clear, I disbelieve it, but I do think that's what some people are saying at this juncture.

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1 hour ago, Carborendum said:

This can't be right.  1 in 21 cases result in death??? That's 10x the worst number that has been offered by any other source. How did they come to that?

 

53 minutes ago, Vort said:

I have seen the same number (about 5%) bandied about in various forums this past week. To be clear, I disbelieve it, but I do think that's what some people are saying at this juncture.

I agree, the numbers don't seem to make sense. Currently Utah deaths are under 1%...so why would our next door neighbor be hovering around 5%? Colorado has half the confirmed cases as Nevada...but 200 more deaths. New Mexico on the other hand has 8,200 less reported cases than Utah, but 315 more deaths. About half as many confirmed cases with 3x the deaths is odd. I feel that different state leaders and hospitals are reporting stats to the CDC in a different manner.

Also, this has been said before, but just because someone dies while having the virus doesn't mean it was the virus that killed them. If you are an obese diabetic, who also has heart disease, and lung cancer, and you happen to get covid-19 and die a few weeks later, it will be reported as a covid death. If they died instead from getting Pneumonia, or the flu, or the common cold, the death would be reported as Lung Cancer...so why is everyone treating covid differently? It drives me nuts.

Edited by scottyg
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1 hour ago, scottyg said:

 

I agree, the numbers don't seem to make sense. Currently Utah deaths are under 1%...so why would our next door neighbor be hovering around 5%? Colorado has half the confirmed cases as Nevada...but 200 more deaths. New Mexico on the other hand has 8,200 less reported cases than Utah, but 315 more deaths. About half as many confirmed cases with 3x the deaths is odd. I feel that different state leaders and hospitals are reporting stats to the CDC in a different manner.

Also, this has been said before, but just because someone dies while having the virus doesn't mean it was the virus that killed them. If you are an obese diabetic, who also has heart disease, and lung cancer, and you happen to get covid-19 and die a few weeks later, it will be reported as a covid death. If they died instead from getting Pneumonia, or the flu, or the common cold, the death would be reported as Lung Cancer...so why is everyone treating covid differently? It drives me nuts.

I'm not sure where people get this idea.  The metric for counting Covid-19 Deaths is generally the same across the U.S. 

It depends on WHAT the doctor/medical examiner puts down on the Death certificate.  IT is THEIR MEDICAL licenses at stake. 

For some reason, people think that doctors and medical examiners just want to put Covid-19 down for no reason and love to be inaccurate.  I've met VERY FEW doctors who would risk their medical license for such a silly reason.  Those who I've known personally who have died from it (and my age group seems to have quite a number) have it listed, but there are those who ALSO died of something else (cancer and heart disease among my friends who have died recently) and they do not have Covid-19 listed ANYWHERE on the death certificate and are not counted in the Covid deaths.  At least one was in a nursing home where such things are occurring, but their death was NOT counted among those who had died from it. They were in the middle of it with others dying from it, but they were NOT counted as dying from it.

The reason, the doctor listed their cause of death as something other than Covid-19.

Part of the reason of the difference in numbers is due to how much they are testing, who they are testing, and how available testing is (or at least, that's what it appears to be from my perspective).  The more tests they do, the more they detect who actually has it.  The more the tests are available, the more people are shown to have it.  It increases the numbers of those that have the disease, but it also seems to show that currently the mortality is lower in areas with more available testing that are also testing more.  You also see a lot more younger people who have gotten it, verses when testing is harder to obtain and not as available, you get more of those with serious symptoms being tested and those who have it, but it is not serious, are not able to get tested.  This results in a higher mortality.

This also would show differences depending on which stage the virus was at in the state.  Those that had a majority of the surges earlier had a more limited supply of tests, and thus only the more serious cases were tested.  AS they were more serious, more deaths resulted from those.  Many who may have had it but could not be tested were not counted as having Covid-19, simply because they were not confirmed via test.  Later on, as more tests are available in some states, as surges in their numbers arise, they have more testing and thus more people who may be asymptomatic or not as serious are being able to also be tested.

I also wonder if season comes into play with this.  All things seem to indicate to me that this virus is seasonal.  This means that people will still get it, but the severity is lessoned during the summer months.  No one really knows why this occurs with things such as Colds and Flus and a few other viruses.  Some think it is due to the heat, the sunlight, or other various theories.  This would come into play for those states that had surges earlier (more deaths in the spring months) vs. now (summer months).  Colds and Flues doe not go away during the summer, but their impact is not as severe.  I think it is very possible this is also happening with the Covid-19 (which also speaks for a scary situation in the Fall...perhaps).

There are many reasons why the numbers and mortality would appear differently between different systems, most have nothing to do with Doctors and medical examiners fudging they way they record the deaths or how the deaths are recorded.  A LOT of it has to do with testing and the availability of testing.  I'd imagine that there is a distinct possibility that the actual fatality of the disease is 1% or lower (still 3-10x as fatal as the flu, but not as fatal as initially thought at 3%) overall and this could be shown if any who wanted to be tested could be tested whenever they wanted to be tested.  We'd find a LOT more younger individuals have had it, and the mortality rates overall would drop.  I think it is also possible that it has a higher mortality in given situations (perhaps closer to 1%) than other situations (where, for example, perhaps in areas people spend a lot of time outside, it's warmer, and they are exercising more, we'd get only .3% mortality).  There are a lot of variables that account for the differences between states and even various areas in those states (Colorado for example have some places with a much higher mortality compared to those tested, and some areas with a much lower mortality.  I am not in Colorado, but in my area, our mortality of confirmed cases is hovering around .5% currently, while in another area in the same state, and even in our same regional area of the state it is higher than 3% mortality.  That's a vast difference but a lot of it has to do with the availability of those tested, and when the majority of the tests occurred in the timeline).

Edited by JohnsonJones

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3 hours ago, Carborendum said:

This can't be right.  1 in 21 cases result in death??? That's 10x the worst number that has been offered by any other source. How did they come to that?

Most testing stations in Colorado, need a doctors order to get one. So most people do not get tested until they are sick and symptomatic.

I have a buddy who was showing flu like symptoms, but the doctor didn’t think they warranted a Covid test, so he never got one.  Conversely, everyone who dies of flu like symptoms, gets a postmortem test.

That’s my best guess.  

Edited by NeuroTypical

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1 hour ago, NeuroTypical said:

Most testing stations in Colorado, need a doctors order to get one. So most people do not get tested until they are sick and symptomatic.

I have a buddy who was showing flu like symptoms, but the doctor didn’t think they warranted a Covid test, so he never got one.  Conversely, everyone who dies of flu like symptoms, gets a postmortem test.

That’s my best guess.  

I would also guess this.  It's pretty hard to get a test in Colorado.

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21 hours ago, NeuroTypical said:

Most testing stations in Colorado, need a doctors order to get one. So most people do not get tested until they are sick and symptomatic.

I have a buddy who was showing flu like symptoms, but the doctor didn’t think they warranted a Covid test, so he never got one.  Conversely, everyone who dies of flu like symptoms, gets a postmortem test.

That’s my best guess.  

You're not supposed to say that.  You're supposed to tell me that it's an undeniable truth and that I should start panicking and start wearing a mask as soon as I get out of bed in the morning.

Kidding.

In related news, I had to go to the neighboring town (also neighboring county) today to meet with a client.  While I was there I stopped by the supermarket.  It took just 12 seconds for me to realize that I was the only person not wearing a mask.  I remembered that Harris County (home to Houston) had a judge that required we all wear masks until the end of June (that date has probably changed since the recent "spike" data).  I realized that I had crossed the county line.  Our county does not require it.

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6 minutes ago, Carborendum said:

537627957_wearamask.jpg.46dbb7466268968ab83e2ca9014b2372.jpg

 

Look, that's really mean. Don't say that about @mirkwood

😉

 

Edited by MormonGator

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Good source for the usefulness of mask wearing: 

https://theness.com/neurologicablog/index.php/face-mask-war/?fbclid=IwAR3ju11l_t7sTSoMv_fWBodkx3urxuSsCQ5ZwQdTuhBh4JDbiw-hjztldzc

Quote

When it came to masks, an analysis of 29 unadjusted and 10 adjusted studies demonstrated that the use of masks was also associated with a large decrease in transmission, both for N95 masks and for disposable surgical masks or similar reusable 12- to 16-layer cotton masks.

 

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39 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

OK.  But...

Quote

Sure, it may be a pain and a bit uncomfortable, but this is a minor nuisance at worst

Who have they been talking to?  Just the people who agree with them on their staff?

I can tell you pretty plainly that I simply cannot breathe in them for more than maybe 10 to 15 min at a time.  This is more than a minor nuisance.  I already have respiration problems, and to place an additional barrier to breathing on my face could make me pass out.  But apparently, they couldn't be bothered to ask about people like me.

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7 hours ago, Carborendum said:

OK.  But...

Who have they been talking to?  Just the people who agree with them on their staff?

I can tell you pretty plainly that I simply cannot breathe in them for more than maybe 10 to 15 min at a time.  This is more than a minor nuisance.  I already have respiration problems, and to place an additional barrier to breathing on my face could make me pass out.  But apparently, they couldn't be bothered to ask about people like me.

What type of respiration problems?

I have a friend (granted, they are over 75) who has COPD and is on oxygen 90% of the time (Well, in honesty, I'm not sure of how much they are on it, but I've almost always seen him on it when talking to him, at the ward he was on it for the entire sunday services normally).  They wear a mask in public (granted, they don't go out except to get groceries currently, which is when they wear a mask).  Whereas they used to walk around the store, they now ride in those cart like things with baskes on them when they shop, but they are still wearing a mask and have not passed out, though they go straight back on oxygen when they get home from what I understand.  Wondering what type of respiration problems are worse than his that would make it so that someone would pass out in general...though I suppose you could be on oxygen most of the time as well.

I do wonder why he goes to the store with his wife, I'd have thought it would be easier to just let his wife go (she doesn't have oxygen and doesn't struggle to breath), but perhaps he just wants to get out from their house sometimes.  I've seen them at the store a few times, thus far they have been healthy from what I've talked to them about (at a distance of course, keeping that distancing up).

 

Edited by JohnsonJones

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1 hour ago, JohnsonJones said:

What type of respiration problems?

Three things:

  • Every once in a while, I stop breathing.  I have to consciously restart my breathing.  Thankfully, it doesn't happen when I'm asleep -- or it does, but my reflexes kick in even though they don't while I'm awake.  The best I can describe it as is "wake apnea".
  • Every once in a while I have trouble feeling "completion" in a breath.  It's almost like breathing at high altitude.  I can feel my lungs expand.  I also get light headed, so I know I'm getting oxygen.  But my lungs feel like they're being constricted and I keep wanting to breath in more.
  • When my neck is bent beyond a certain level, my windpipe becomes constricted.  And this "level" is not extreme.  It is just enough to bow my head for prayer.  I've taken to not bowing my head for prayer.  I tend to by my back a bit so my neck is relatively straight.

I've recently developed a theory about item #3 above.  I think there is something wrong with my tonsils or around that region of my throat,  They seem to be swollen.  I've noticed difficulty swallowing sometimes -- especially with dry foods.  It's not tonsilitis.  It's just constricted.  I'm taking some measures to treat it.  And we'll see if it does any good.

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Guest MormonGator
2 hours ago, JohnsonJones said:

have a friend (granted, they are over 75) who has COPD and is on oxygen 90% of the time

JJ-if you need an oxygen tank, don't you need it 100% of the time? Honest question, not being rude. Asking just in my own ignorance.  

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17 minutes ago, MormonGator said:

JJ-if you need an oxygen tank, don't you need it 100% of the time? Honest question, not being rude. Asking just in my own ignorance.  

No my sister (COPD for years AND now recovering from COVID) is on intermittent oxygen and now can walk about 10m without it.

When I was on the respiratory ward (physio) most of the patients had oxygen available when needed. Usually during "strenuous" exercise (i.e. walking more than a couple of steps)

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3 minutes ago, KScience said:

No my sister (COPD for years AND now recovering from COVID) is on intermittent oxygen and now can walk about 10m without it.

When I was on the respiratory ward (physio) most of the patients had oxygen available when needed. Usually during "strenuous" exercise (i.e. walking more than a couple of steps)

Makes sense.

Thank you, I seriously didn't know. I thought if your lungs were in such bad shape that you required oxygen you needed it 24/7. 

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Guest MormonGator
6 hours ago, Carborendum said:

Three things:

  • Every once in a while, I stop breathing.  I have to consciously restart my breathing.  Thankfully, it doesn't happen when I'm asleep -- or it does, but my reflexes kick in even though they don't while I'm awake.  The best I can describe it as is "wake apnea".
  • Every once in a while I have trouble feeling "completion" in a breath.  It's almost like breathing at high altitude.  I can feel my lungs expand.  I also get light headed, so I know I'm getting oxygen.  But my lungs feel like they're being constricted and I keep wanting to breath in more.
  • When my neck is bent beyond a certain level, my windpipe becomes constricted.  And this "level" is not extreme.  It is just enough to bow my head for prayer.  I've taken to not bowing my head for prayer.  I tend to by my back a bit so my neck is relatively straight.

I've recently developed a theory about item #3 above.  I think there is something wrong with my tonsils or around that region of my throat,  They seem to be swollen.  I've noticed difficulty swallowing sometimes -- especially with dry foods.  It's not tonsilitis.  It's just constricted.  I'm taking some measures to treat it.  And we'll see if it does any good.

Just sayin'. 

106574374_3025052797611920_2883985222371928074_n.jpg

Edited by MormonGator

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2 minutes ago, MormonGator said:

Just sayin'. 

106574374_3025052797611920_2883985222371928074_n.jpg

So you think Carb is a lying drama queen? I assume you do not think that, but I don't understand what else your post could mean.

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11 minutes ago, Vort said:

So you think Carb is a lying drama queen? I assume you do not think that, but I don't understand what else your post could mean.

Tongue in cheek, relax. No, I don't think like that, using humor to make a greater point. 

Edited by MormonGator

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Guest MormonGator

But it does raise an interesting point. I've heard many people (and not just @Carborendum, to be clear. Who I like and consider a friend. My apologies if the joke didn't go through well. 100% my fault.) complain about wearing a mask for a five minute trip to the grocery store while ignoring the fact that nurses and doctors have to wear them for hours during complicated surgeries.

Maybe something to think about as we nag about how "oppressed" we are when we have to decide if we want fish or chicken for dinner while wearing one. 

Edited by MormonGator

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2 hours ago, MormonGator said:

But it does raise an interesting point. I've heard many people (and not just @Carborendum, to be clear. Who I like and consider a friend. My apologies if the joke didn't go through well. 100% my fault.) complain about wearing a mask for a five minute trip to the grocery store while ignoring the fact that nurses and doctors have to wear them for hours during complicated surgeries.

Maybe something to think about as we nag about how "oppressed" we are when we have to decide if we want fish or chicken for dinner while wearing one. 

There's a ginormous difference between a surgeon who submitted to training to do surgeries in a mask while breathing down the innards of a person and the everyday guy who is FORCED to wear a mask while walking around Walmart.  And there is a reason why @Carborendum is not a surgeon.

And yes, you should nag about how you are oppressed when you've done nothing but stay home and go to Walmart for the past 4 months and you are GUILTED into wearing a mask by social pressure and then by government tyranny.  YOU WEAR A MASK if you so desire.  Stop being such a gaslighter to people who do not want to do so.  Fad Science is simply that.  FAD SCIENCE.

The next step is for you to social pressure other people into taking the vaccine.  Then social pressured to get digital chipped so they know you've been vaccined.  Then social pressured to house arrest for whatever other else YOU consider the Fad Science of the month that makes you feel better about yourself and grandma so you won't live constantly in fear of dying.

Edited by anatess2

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13 hours ago, Carborendum said:

Three things:

  • Every once in a while, I stop breathing.  I have to consciously restart my breathing.  Thankfully, it doesn't happen when I'm asleep -- or it does, but my reflexes kick in even though they don't while I'm awake.  The best I can describe it as is "wake apnea".
  • Every once in a while I have trouble feeling "completion" in a breath.  It's almost like breathing at high altitude.  I can feel my lungs expand.  I also get light headed, so I know I'm getting oxygen.  But my lungs feel like they're being constricted and I keep wanting to breath in more.
  • When my neck is bent beyond a certain level, my windpipe becomes constricted.  And this "level" is not extreme.  It is just enough to bow my head for prayer.  I've taken to not bowing my head for prayer.  I tend to by my back a bit so my neck is relatively straight.

I've recently developed a theory about item #3 above.  I think there is something wrong with my tonsils or around that region of my throat,  They seem to be swollen.  I've noticed difficulty swallowing sometimes -- especially with dry foods.  It's not tonsilitis.  It's just constricted.  I'm taking some measures to treat it.  And we'll see if it does any good.

That sounds pretty serious.  I'd probably want to see a GND or Pulmonary specialist to check that out and see what exactly is happening if you haven't already.

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