Societal Fabric

[Carborendum]

I'm seeing a very disturbing pattern.  And I'm hoping some of you may talk me off of the EOTW cliff I seem to be looking over.

I figure that society only sticks together because we have a governmental structure with a system of laws and enforcement of those laws, a network of economic and financial agreements and systems, the supply chain of goods and services, and enforcement of contracts and agreements.  But all of that will only work as long as government functions on some fundamental level.

The shutdown itself is not the problem.  Nor is it the virus.  It is the fight we're having over the shutdown and the virus.  People are exercising their right to civil disobedience in ever increasing numbers.  Executives, legislators, and judiciary are having feuds over who gets the last word.  Even the so called "supremacy of the judiciary" is becoming less sure.  And it's not in the same attitude that I'm used to seeing. There were always checks and balances, but I used the word feud for a reason.  The tone has shifted.  How often have you heard the word "draconian" in the last month?

I'm just reading all this from bits and pieces all over the news.  That's my impression. I'm really concerned that the nature of the way government functions is showing signs of... the rumors of ... revolution.

Does everyone just take this in stride?  Or is the "feud" just the same old checks and balances there have always been?  Am I over-reacting? I'm just ... concerned.  i'm not panicking.  Like I have said many times.  I notice patterns.  And I can project that pattern.  The projections are usually accurate as long as the pattern is not interrupted.  Is there a sign that it will be interrupted?

[Midwest LDS]

14 hours ago, Carborendum said:

I'm seeing a very disturbing pattern.  And I'm hoping some of you may talk me off of the EOTW cliff I seem to be looking over.

I figure that society only sticks together because we have a governmental structure with a system of laws and enforcement of those laws, a network of economic and financial agreements and systems, the supply chain of goods and services, and enforcement of contracts and agreements.  But all of that will only work as long as government functions on some fundamental level.

The shutdown itself is not the problem.  Nor is it the virus.  It is the fight we're having over the shutdown and the virus.  People are exercising their right to civil disobedience in ever increasing numbers.  Executives, legislators, and judiciary are having feuds over who gets the last word.  Even the so called "supremacy of the judiciary" is becoming less sure.  And it's not in the same attitude that I'm used to seeing. There were always checks and balances, but I used the word feud for a reason.  The tone has shifted.  How often have you heard the word "draconian" in the last month?

I'm just reading all this from bits and pieces all over the news.  That's my impression. I'm really concerned that the nature of the way government functions is showing signs of... the rumors of ... revolution.

Does everyone just take this in stride?  Or is the "feud" just the same old checks and balances there have always been?  Am I over-reacting? I'm just ... concerned.  i'm not panicking.  Like I have said many times.  I notice patterns.  And I can project that pattern.  The projections are usually accurate as long as the pattern is not interrupted.  Is there a sign that it will be interrupted?

You're not the only one who's concerned. I'm a historian, and frankly I see disturbing parallels to the political situation just prior to the Civil War. The issues are different of course, but the general attitude of contention and the refusal to cooperate with the other side that pervaded the country during that period is very similar to what we are going through now. Politics have always been contentious, but after the yelling and screaming during the election, we (all pronouns from here on out are generic and I recognize exceptions exist to my generalizations) buckled down and got things done together (Johnson's Civil Rights Act was passed with Republican and Northern Democratic support, Reagan and Tip O'Neill battled in public, but got things done behind the scenes and were friends etc.). Even as recently as 9/11 we came together as a nation. After the terrorist attack we were all Americans at least for a little while, and Democrats joined Republicans in persecuting the terrorists who attacked us. But we can't seem to do that now. We are in the middle of a crisis right this second and are we coming together? No, each side is so consumed with blaming the other side for all the country's problems, and are so obsessed with weird conspiracy theories that we can't even admit the other side has a right to exist, let alone work with them to fix the problem. We are like a married couple who's about to get divorced and can't see the good that attracted us to the other person in the first place, we can only see the faults. Now please note I hope I'm wrong. I hope I'm just seeing patterns where none exist, and that we will continue along just fine. But I'm concerned.

Edited May 13, 2020 by Midwest LDS

[anatess2]

10 hours ago, Carborendum said:

Does everyone just take this in stride?  Or is the "feud" just the same old checks and balances there have always been?  Am I over-reacting? I'm just ... concerned.  i'm not panicking.  Like I have said many times.  I notice patterns.  And I can project that pattern.  The projections are usually accurate as long as the pattern is not interrupted.  Is there a sign that it will be interrupted?

Leaping Technological Advancements, especially on information dissemination, always cause a power shift.  The information over newspapers allowed Americans to support a war against Spain.  The control over radio and movies allowed information to be brokered by a few powerful people that allowed Germans to support a genocidal maniac.  The Television set almost got Kennedy to launch missiles on Cuba, got Russia and America on a space war with American public schools doing fire drills in case of a Russian nuclear bomb attack...

Today's information superhighway is another leap in technological advancement that shifted the control of information out of the old king makers.  The difference is - it is now in the hands of every single person with an internet-connected device, which includes the everyday poor Filipino!  These people have not yet learned to be responsible with information.  It's too new.  GenZ (aptly called the iGen) is the first generation who were born never knowing a world without internet - so they will be the very first generation that will get a natural ability to wade through the information superhighway and detect truth from falsehood.  The next generations can only get better from there.  No amount of Zuckerberg/Dorsey/et. al. information control can stop the coming generation from becoming masters of information.  By the time they turn 20, the Zuckerberg and Dorsey types are going to become the Ok, Boomers.

So, what does this mean?  The iGen onward are not going to be as easily swayed by king maker narratives.  It won't be as easy to get them to huddle together to support a revolution.  So, if the boomers, x-gens, and millenials can keep from blowing themselves up... things are going to settle down eventually.

 

Edited May 13, 2020 by anatess2

[Traveler]

On 5/13/2020 at 8:08 AM, anatess2 said:

Leaping Technological Advancements, especially on information dissemination, always cause a power shift.  The information over newspapers allowed Americans to support a war against Spain.  The control over radio and movies allowed information to be brokered by a few powerful people that allowed Germans to support a genocidal maniac.  The Television set almost got Kennedy to launch missiles on Cuba, got Russia and America on a space war with American public schools doing fire drills in case of a Russian nuclear bomb attack...

Today's information superhighway is another leap in technological advancement that shifted the control of information out of the old king makers.  The difference is - it is now in the hands of every single person with an internet-connected device, which includes the everyday poor Filipino!  These people have not yet learned to be responsible with information.  It's too new.  GenZ (aptly called the iGen) is the first generation who were born never knowing a world without internet - so they will be the very first generation that will get a natural ability to wade through the information superhighway and detect truth from falsehood.  The next generations can only get better from there.  No amount of Zuckerberg/Dorsey/et. al. information control can stop the coming generation from becoming masters of information.  By the time they turn 20, the Zuckerberg and Dorsey types are going to become the Ok, Boomers.

So, what does this mean?  The iGen onward are not going to be as easily swayed by king maker narratives.  It won't be as easy to get them to huddle together to support a revolution.  So, if the boomers, x-gens, and millenials can keep from blowing themselves up... things are going to settle down eventually.

 

I am not so sure we should deify GenZ as truth discerning g-ds yet.  The growing misinformation about marriage and gender have current generations struggling more than any generation I am aware of.  Reading my ancestor's journals has convinced me that there has been a recent major paradigm shift in what is acceptable in courtship.  Using the same modeling techniques (Chaos Theory and fractal mathematics models) we are in as much danger as a species as we are for climate change, super viral pandemics, supply chain disruption and economic collapse.

I do admit that religious nepotism towards science has been a great engine to turn upcoming generations away from religion.  But with all that aside - I am not seeing anything in the upcoming generations (at least in the USA) that indicates they are prepared for the rigors of human folly.  I joined the army at age 17 and faced the probability  of combat.  Current generations are struggling with our young men entering the mission field being older.  In my current stake over 1/4 of those that leave for missions return early - not my a month or so but most before completing even a year.

I realize that all generations are concerned with the upcoming generation - some say it is no big deal and quote concerned citizens of ancient Greece.  What many forget is that the Greek civilization collapsed not long after.  I agree with @Carborendum the current trends are not reassuring.   The only progress I see is in science and the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (mostly in our rather old leadership).

 

The Traveler

[Guest MormonGator]

6 minutes ago, Traveler said:

my ancestor's journals has convinced me that there has been a recent major paradigm shift in what is acceptable in courtship. 

Correct. There's been a fundamental shift in how the younger generations view sexuality. The horse has left the barn, and it's not coming back. 

Edited May 27, 2020 by MormonGator

[Traveler]

14 minutes ago, MormonGator said:

Correct. There's been a fundamental shift in how the younger generations view sexuality. The horse has left the barn, and it's not coming back. 

For sure - that horse will not come back on its own.  🤠

 

The Traveler

[Guest MormonGator]

3 minutes ago, Traveler said:

For sure - that horse will not come back on its own.  🤠

 

The Traveler

If you want to go out looking for it, I wish you the best of luck. 

[Traveler]

5 hours ago, MormonGator said:

If you want to go out looking for it, I wish you the best of luck. 

I already know where it went - it is in southern California.  At first I was thinking Florida but you are there and obviously would have noticed.

 

The Traveler

[Guest MormonGator]

1 hour ago, Traveler said:

I already know where it went - it is in southern California.  At first I was thinking Florida but you are there and obviously would have noticed.

 

The Traveler

I would have eaten him too.  

[NeuroTypical]

On 5/12/2020 at 9:21 PM, Carborendum said:

I figure that society only sticks together because we have a governmental structure with a system of laws and enforcement of those laws, a network of economic and financial agreements and systems, the supply chain of goods and services, and enforcement of contracts and agreements.  But all of that will only work as long as government functions on some fundamental level.

The world is not ending.  Our nation is not ending.  A short term 3-6 month virus isn't the same thing as generational strife over slavery, etc, so we're not headed towards a Civil War.  

If I'm wrong and our nation ends tomorrow, there's still room for hope.  Speaking on a humankind-wide level, humans will never allow anarchy.  There will be systems of government, rules, laws, enforcers, etc.  There are zero examples of an absence of these, anywhere in human history.  Just short term periods of collapse and chaos, where a new order springs up.  No matter what falls apart, something else will rise.   No more Roman/Spanish/Ottoman/British empire, but you can still find Romans/Spaniards/Turks/Brits. 

Here - this might help:

 

Edited May 28, 2020 by NeuroTypical

[Guest MormonGator]

2 hours ago, NeuroTypical said:

The world is not ending.  Our nation is not ending.  A short term 3-6 month virus isn't the same thing as generational strife over slavery, etc, so we're not headed towards a Civil War.  

 

I'm starting a slow clap for this. Thank you @NeuroTypical

[Carborendum]

14 hours ago, NeuroTypical said:

The world is not ending.  Our nation is not ending.  A short term 3-6 month virus isn't the same thing as generational strife over slavery, etc, so we're not headed towards a Civil War.  

If I'm wrong and our nation ends tomorrow, there's still room for hope.  Speaking on a humankind-wide level, humans will never allow anarchy.  There will be systems of government, rules, laws, enforcers, etc.  There are zero examples of an absence of these, anywhere in human history.  Just short term periods of collapse and chaos, where a new order springs up.  No matter what falls apart, something else will rise.   No more Roman/Spanish/Ottoman/British empire, but you can still find Romans/Spaniards/Turks/Brits. 

Yes, I'm aware.  But I think you may be putting too much hope in the fall of the Roman Empire.  It led to THE DARK AGES.

Did the world recover?  Sure.  After many centuries.  Some may say after 1000 years. 

Were there governments?  Yes, but not nearly as effective.  A lot more wars (which I categorize differntly than imperial campaigns) poverty, famines, etc.  And every society that came of "the ten toes" were more crime ridden than Rome ever was -- at least for a very prolonged period.

It was that even though there was "government and laws" the respect for the rule of law was absent.  The idea of "peaceful society" was not part of the societal fabric.  Contracts being dependable was not a common thing.  Instead of honorable free market exchanges, it was caveat emptor. All the "skin of its teeth" similarity to what we see today -- or have seen in earlier decades -- but the societal attitudes of "it's not a crime when WE do it" run rampant.  It is the slow return to those dark ages type attitudes that I fear.  There is a reason that Jesus tended to criticize hypocrisy more than most other sins.

I see the good.  But I also see the bad.  And as bad as things seem in the US today, the rest of the world is worse.  And the dark ages were even worse still.  So, the fact that the dark ages had governments and leaders isn't really all that comforting.

Remember that, to us, we didn't truly recover until the Restoration.  I'm hoping I don't have to spell out what parallel that leads to in today's scenario.

The primary thing that is coming to mind is the nature of "civil disobedience" that I'm seeing here (mostly because of the political climate and the lockdown).

I've always considered the guideline for "intolerable" tyranny is when the people decide that they would be willing to pledge their lives, their fortunes, and their sacred honor on the right to rebel.  This doesn't matter whether it is over a hairstyle, a prison sentence, or anything in between.  It is "whatever" is worth putting those three things on the line for to a sufficient number of individuals.

I've seen protesters my entire life.  And most of them, honestly, don't seem to be sacrificing much.  But when I see otherwise, law-abiding, peaceful, productive, honorable people beginning to fall on their swords to rebel against what they consider to be tyranny, I perk my ears up and I begin paying attention.  And if, at that point, I start seeing enough peaceful people behaving in an unpeaceful manner, I begin to start my watch.  How far does it go?  Is there a sign of it stopping?

I'm not saying it is the end of the country or the world yet.  Don't misinterpret me.  The signs of the end of the world happen all the time.  But when enough signs start appearing a LOT, then we need to start asking the question and watching.  Just because a boy cried wolf doesn't mean there are no such things as wolves.

I'm saying, it always pays to be vigilant.

Edited May 28, 2020 by Carborendum

[NeuroTypical]

13 hours ago, Carborendum said:

I've seen protesters my entire life.  And most of them, honestly, don't seem to be sacrificing much.  But when I see otherwise, law-abiding, peaceful, productive, honorable people beginning to fall on their swords to rebel against what they consider to be tyranny, I perk my ears up and I begin paying attention.  And if, at that point, I start seeing enough peaceful people behaving in an unpeaceful manner, I begin to start my watch.  How far does it go?  Is there a sign of it stopping?

I share your observations and your concerns, and your questions.  My opinion is the unrest from these sources will grow and shrink on local levels according to local COVID realities.  New outbreaks in cities or counties will lead to more restrictions, which will lead to greater unrest.  Progress and falling infection/death rates will lead to fewer restrictions, which will lead to less unrest.

And I figure we'll win against COVID.

But yeah, I may be wrong.

[anatess2]

9 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

I share your observations and your concerns, and your questions.  My opinion is the unrest from these sources will grow and shrink on local levels according to local COVID realities.  New outbreaks in cities or counties will lead to more restrictions, which will lead to greater unrest.  Progress and falling infection/death rates will lead to fewer restrictions, which will lead to less unrest.

And I figure we'll win against COVID.

But yeah, I may be wrong.

If you're wrong, then the error will lie on one simple miscalculation - you think this is about covid.

[Guest MormonGator]

18 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

which will lead to less unrest.

There's been unrest in every civilization since the dawn of time. 

[Carborendum]

28 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

I share your observations and your concerns, and your questions.  My opinion is the unrest from these sources will grow and shrink on local levels according to local COVID realities.  New outbreaks in cities or counties will lead to more restrictions, which will lead to greater unrest.  Progress and falling infection/death rates will lead to fewer restrictions, which will lead to less unrest.

And I figure we'll win against COVID.

But yeah, I may be wrong.

I actually agree with the idea that we'll win against COVID.  I wouldn't exactly say that I "disagree", but I'd say that I don't have as much confidence than you seem to that the patterns I'm seeing may wax and wane based on the success or failure against the disease alone.

Again, I'm not making a prediction.  Who knows what changes may happen tomorrow or next month or next year?  I'm just thinking in linear terms.  And we all know that the patterns of history are not linear, but circular.

Edited May 28, 2020 by Carborendum

[NeuroTypical]

9 minutes ago, Carborendum said:

I'm just thinking in linear terms.  And we all know that the patterns of history are not linear, but circular.

Yes indeed.  I'm in my 3nd decade of thinking about the US in terms of empire, and in my 2nd decade of thinking about it in terms of declining empire.  Hence my earlier meme about Rome.

[Vort]

14 hours ago, Carborendum said:

societal fabric

[Carborendum]

1 minute ago, NeuroTypical said:

Yes indeed.  I'm in my 3nd decade of thinking about the US in terms of empire, and in my 2nd decade of thinking about it in terms of declining empire.  Hence my earlier meme about Rome.

Nothing wrong with that. I think anyone with a knowledge  of history and the basis behind the founding of this country, can't help but see parallels to Ancient Rome.  And everyone and their dog is still speculating whether we are still going uphill vs downhill in our world power status.

If we follow the same pattern, then there might be some speculation on the ten toes.

[Carborendum]

13 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

Yes indeed.  I'm in my 3nd decade of thinking about the US in terms of empire, and in my 2nd decade of thinking about it in terms of declining empire.  Hence my earlier meme about Rome.

Speaking of Rome. . .

Did anyone else get flashbacks to Nero when they saw pictures of Minneapolis burning?

[NeuroTypical]

Not any more than I got with the Berkley riots over Milo, or any of the anti-Trump protests that turned ugly, or Baltimore over Freddy Grey, Oakland over Michael Brown, or the Occupy Wallstreet idiocy, or the one over Elian Gonzalez.  Or the ones I remember from the 1900's like the WTO riots, LA riots, Rodney King.

This one is different because the entire world is in the grips of a global pandemic where the wrong air will kill us if we're old enough.  So everything is magnified a little.

[Carborendum]

25 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

Not any more than I got with the Berkley riots over Milo, or any of the anti-Trump protests that turned ugly, or Baltimore over Freddy Grey, Oakland over Michael Brown, or the Occupy Wallstreet idiocy, or the one over Elian Gonzalez.  Or the ones I remember from the 1900's like the WTO riots, LA riots, Rodney King.

This one is different because the entire world is in the grips of a global pandemic where the wrong air will kill us if we're old enough.  So everything is magnified a little.

That is interesting.  I actually didn't get that vibe with any of the others.  I'll tell you what put it in that category.  And I'll admit it is tenuous. But still... flashbacks are simply vague impressions anyway.

Ilhan Omar said three things about it.

• We are justified in our anger and desire for justice.
• We can rebuild objects.
• But don't hurt people.

I'm not commenting on the right/wrong correct/incorrect or political leanings.  I just heard these things and got a quick "beautiful mind" type connection to the fact that

• Nero was said to have actually started the fire because he wanted to bypass the Senate and rebuild Rome the way he wanted it.
  • Sounds like a liberal ideal of destroying symbols of capitalism (such as places of commerce) so they can rebuild it in their own image.
• Nero blamed the Christians for starting the fire.
  • Sounds like liberals always calling Trump's "dog whistles the underlying cause of any racist behavior (perceived or real).
• Nero didn't necessarily want to reduce the population of Rome because they were a tax base and also a source of soldiers.
  • Ilhan doesn't want her district to decrease in population lest she be re-districted out of office.

No, I haven't really thought it through.  But these ideas just came to me in a flash.  Maybe they mean nothing.

Edited May 28, 2020 by Carborendum

[Emmanuel Goldstein]

"That same God who gave the revelations to his servant Joseph Smith in regard to these matters, will fulfil every jot and every tittle that has been spoken, concerning that nation. What then will be the condition of that people, when this great and terrible war shall come? It will be very different from the war between the North and the South, Do you wish me to describe it? I will do so. It will be a war of neighborhood against neighborhood, city against city, town against town, county against county, state against state, and they will go forth destroying and being destroyed and manufacturing will, in a great measure, cease, for a time, among the American nation. Why? Because in these terrible wars, they will not be privileged to manufacture, there will be too much blood-shed—too much mobocracy—too much going forth in bands and destroying and pillaging the land to suffer people to pursue any local vocation with any degree of safety. What will become of millions of the farmers upon that land? They will leave their farms and they will remain uncultivated, and they will flee before the ravaging armies from place to place; and thus will they go forth burning and pillaging the whole country; and that great and powerful nation, now consisting of some forty millions of people, will be wasted away, unless they repent.

Now these are predictions you may record. You may let them sink down into your hearts. And if the Lord your God shall permit you to live, you will see my words fulfilled to the very letter. They are not my words, but the words of inspiration—the words of the everlasting God, who has sent forth his servants with this message to warn the nations of the earth. The Book of Mormon contains many of these predictions."

-Orson Pratt, Delivered in the North Branch Meeting Room, of the London Conference, on Sunday evening, March 9th, 1879. 

[Traveler]

@Carborendum @NeuroTypical and others - I have tried to make sense of what I have seen the last few months.  I witnessed a reporter praise Gov, Cuomo as an example of the best leadership in the wold concerning COVID-19.  I wished I could have gone live with this reporter and ask just one simple question - Since they thought Cuomo had done such a great job - would they provide just one place in this world where the leadership has actually acted worse, made more critical mistakes and had worse results.  People in great numbers are willing to stand in the bright sun of mid day and passionately lie that it is night.

I do not believe Trump or our fabulous free press has done that much to brag that they have provided what this country needs to make correct choices concerning COVID-19 or any other political division currently going on.   To be honest if the trends of the last few months hold - I do not see how the country I thought I belonged to can remain.  We are as divided over COVID-19 as we have been about anything in our history - and I do not see any coming together.  Few realize that before the allied forces were able to engage the axis powers in battle in WWII - we had to first fight a literal battle among ourselves.  Yes - we had to fight the French navy before we could put troops in Africa.  And the French navy was still resisting the Germans even though their country had surrendered to Germany.  And yet they were still willing to fight with the only remaining allies over who would be in command of forces.

And so I see more support for riots burning and destroying property in a time of great crisis to our businesses and economy - and the press has been more critical of a lady trying to reopen her hair styling business and avoid bankruptcy.  This country has gone mad and as divided as we are - I see no resolution  in the upcoming election.  This country is so divided that even if there was someone that can win this next election - I believe we would still remain more divided and more vulnerable than we have ever been to the enemies of freedom and liberty - both foreign and domestic.

 

The Traveler

[Carborendum]

6 minutes ago, Traveler said:

I wished I could have gone live with this reporter and ask just one simple question - Since they thought Cuomo had done such a great job - would they provide just one place in this world where the leadership has actually acted worse, made more critical mistakes and had worse results.  People in great numbers are willing to stand in the bright sun of mid day and passionately lie that it is night.

To go along with the remainder of your post, I'd point out that (quite honestly, both sides) don't care about facts or consistency anymore.  They care about "How can I criticize the other guy for doing something great while I praise my guy for doing something really badly?"