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Plein Air
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7 hours ago, Plein Air said:

I just heard some numbers from someone connected with the Southwest Utah Public Health Dept. that literally made me do a double-take. 

  • 200 Documented COVID-19 Cases as of today
  • 3 Deaths attributed to COVID-19
  • 28 Deaths attributed to the Seasonal Flu -  What the heck? :yikes:  

Take a look at the breakdown for C-19 numbers in the SWUPHD's coverage area. I wish I had asked what the total numbers of seasonal flu infection were so far, to calculate the mortality rate for the flu. 

  • 200 Total documented C-19 cases as of today - Actual cases are likely 20+ times those numbers, maybe even higher*. 
  • Washington County: 165 (13 new)
  • Iron County: 29
  • Kane County: 3
  • Beaver County: 0
  • Garfield County: 3
  • 3 TOTAL DEATHS

The Mortality rate for COVID in the 5 county area is 1.5 % of known cases. Not even close to the worldwide mortality rate of 6.67% based on today's documented worldwide cases and deaths.

More realistic mortality rates based on the studies in New York and California that indicated 20 to 50 times more people have been infected than the documented numbers, gives a mortality rate between 0.075% (20x more estimated infections) and possibly as low as 0.030% (50x more estimated infections) for the 5 county area. Using the same 20x to 50x numbers, worldwide mortality rates would be 0.33%  for 20x and  0.13% for 50x, which if I recall correctly are about the same as those from the seasonal flu worldwide. Of course we were told that this was going to be far worse than the seasonal flu, but it sure doesn't seem that way to me other than in some real hot spots. 

I wonder what we might learn if all seasonal flu deaths were carefully tracked and reported nationwide or even worldwide in the same way that C-19 deaths currently are?

I live in Southern Utah and most of the people I speak to think this is all a big joke And feel we are ruining our economy for no reason.

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9 minutes ago, Fether said:

I live in Southern Utah and most of the people I speak to think this is all a big joke And feel we are ruining our economy for no reason.

A successful quarantine will make people feel as if there was no reason to have it in the first place and yelling for your head because they feel it hurt them in otherways, though they are all healthy and living.

An unsuccessful one will have them yelling for your head because of how many died due to the disease.

It can be a lose/lose situation because humans rely on instinct and emotion rather than science and reason generally.

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7 hours ago, Plein Air said:

I just heard some numbers from someone connected with the Southwest Utah Public Health Dept. that literally made me do a double-take. 

  • 200 Documented COVID-19 Cases as of today
  • 3 Deaths attributed to COVID-19
  • 28 Deaths attributed to the Seasonal Flu -  What the heck? :yikes:  

Take a look at the breakdown for C-19 numbers in the SWUPHD's coverage area. I wish I had asked what the total numbers of seasonal flu infection were so far, to calculate the mortality rate for the flu. 

  • 200 Total documented C-19 cases as of today - Actual cases are likely 20+ times those numbers, maybe even higher*. 
  • Washington County: 165 (13 new)
  • Iron County: 29
  • Kane County: 3
  • Beaver County: 0
  • Garfield County: 3
  • 3 TOTAL DEATHS

The Mortality rate for COVID in the 5 county area is 1.5 % of known cases. Not even close to the worldwide mortality rate of 6.67% based on today's documented worldwide cases and deaths.

More realistic mortality rates based on the studies in New York and California that indicated 20 to 50 times more people have been infected than the documented numbers, gives a mortality rate between 0.075% (20x more estimated infections) and possibly as low as 0.030% (50x more estimated infections) for the 5 county area. Using the same 20x to 50x numbers, worldwide mortality rates would be 0.33%  for 20x and  0.13% for 50x, which if I recall correctly are about the same as those from the seasonal flu worldwide. Of course we were told that this was going to be far worse than the seasonal flu, but it sure doesn't seem that way to me other than in some real hot spots. 

I wonder what we might learn if all seasonal flu deaths were carefully tracked and reported nationwide or even worldwide in the same way that C-19 deaths currently are?

They've had a similar thing pop up in other areas.  I think they did an estimate on New York (I think it was) to see how many cases were being over or undercounted.  They saw that the usual pattern of deaths (including flu season) was around 50K a year.  This year, that was surpassed by 20-30K.  It indicates that the number of deaths due to COVD were being undercounted greatly and attributed to other things.  Even when they had a bad flu year (it was around 53-55K rather than 50K or lower) it was STILL surpassed greatly. 

These studies indicate that there are a large number of deaths due to COVID that are not being counted as such or counted as other things. 

Many reason that we will never know the actual count, but like other viruses, will be able to estimate how many actually died after a few years have passed.  The most likely assumption is that a much greater number will have died than we realize at this point, as the evidence is pointing in that direction.  However, the only way to truly realize how many by estimate is what they are doing right now (taking the average deaths that have been reported over the years and seeing how great an increase it has been) but also after taking in estimates for ALL the other things that can modify that number (flu season, perhaps there was a drought or a blizzard, or other factors) into the equation.

I'm not sure if that is occurring in your area or not.  What is the typical number of deaths due to flu during the time period, and what are the deviations to that number in the bad and good years?  If it is something drastic...such as you normally only have 5 deaths and 10 in a bad year, there may be something up.  On the otherhand, it you normally have 50 deaths and only 28 are reported, there could be something else going on (perhaps those who die from flu don't go to the doctor and die in their homes where they are yet to be found...etc...etc..etc).

Edited by JohnsonJones
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9 minutes ago, JohnsonJones said:

A successful quarantine will make people feel as if there was no reason to have it in the first place and yelling for your head because they feel it hurt them in otherways, though they are all healthy and living.

An unsuccessful one will have them yelling for your head because of how many died due to the disease.

It can be a lose/lose situation because humans rely on instinct and emotion rather than science and reason generally.

Let me make one thing clear, Southern Utah has done VERY LITTLE in terms of quarantine. To say we were successful just drives our thoughts on it home.

 

6 minutes ago, JohnsonJones said:

30K.  It indicates that the number of deaths due to COVD were being undercounted greatly and attributed to other things.  Even when they had a bad flu year (it was around 53-55K rather than 50K or lower) it was STILL surpassed greatly. 

We must be getting our news from different source. I have heard and read that hospitals are encouraged to attribute deaths to c-19 cause it increases their funding. There have been many cases where someone dies because of a heart defect, but because they have c-19, they report it as that to show they are also in need of precious emergency funding. The idea that hospitals are not counting every possible death as a c-19 death seems wrong and against human nature.

I also read that a month ago, they started counting antibodies (a somewhat unreliable way of seeing if someone had the virus or not) in LA and New York. They found that 2.5 million people in NY had c-19 anti bodies, bringing death rate down to  0.2%

I think the biggest tell for how ridiculous this all  is is the lack of celebrity deaths. The news can say “6% death rate” and “Millions are going to die from this” and we just have to take their word for it, but when we see entire basketball teams, politicians,  celebrities, etc. getting c-19 and only a handful age 60-100 years old of them dying due to c-19 “complications”, it’s hard to think that this is serious.

Additionally, there this 20 minute video floating around, that YouTube has since taken down, of civilian reporters exposing the lies we were seeing in the news. 20 minutes of these 15 second - 1 minute long clips of people comparing the media’s claims to reality.
 

some examples include:

Media: they are setting up temporary mass   Morgues in the streets for all the deaths

civilian reporter: showing the same “mass morgues” The media showed and they were just emergency treatment stations and had long been vacant.

 

Media: Lines wrapping around the block as people scramble to get the aid they need.

Civilian reporter: at same location the next day... but it is an empty parking lot

 

Media: Ambulances in X city are being over used and they don’t have time to get to everyone

civilian reporter: in same city showing a hospital parking garage full of idle ambulances

 

Media: look at all these scary picture of covid-19 stuff

Civilian Reporter: showing that there are dozens of reused stock videos from years earlier during other sickness and non-sickness related events that they are using as c-19 propaganda.

It’s going to take a lot to convince me this is not some slippery slope that the media found themselves in.

I agree this is probably worst than the flu in many ways (as more people will get it and die from it)... but we should just quarantine the “at risk” people instead of killing our economy. 
 

Or the government can just keep passing stimulus checks that I can use on cool toys, either or I guess (I actually used it to pay off the rest of our debt. We definitely did not need it).

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3 minutes ago, Fether said:

Let me make one thing clear, Southern Utah has done VERY LITTLE in terms of quarantine. To say we were successful just drives our thoughts on it home.

 

We must be getting our news from different source. I have heard and read that hospitals are encouraged to attribute deaths to c-19 cause it increases their funding. There have been many cases where someone dies because of a heart defect, but because they have c-19, they report it as that to show they are also in need of precious emergency funding. The idea that hospitals are not counting every possible death as a c-19 death seems wrong and against human nature.

I also read that a month ago, they started counting antibodies (a somewhat unreliable way of seeing if someone had the virus or not) in LA and New York. They found that 2.5 million people in NY had c-19 anti bodies, bringing death rate down to  0.2%

I think the biggest tell for how ridiculous this all  is is the lack of celebrity deaths. The news can say “6% death rate” and “Millions are going to die from this” and we just have to take their word for it, but when we see entire basketball teams, politicians,  celebrities, etc. getting c-19 and only a handful age 60-100 years old of them dying due to c-19 “complications”, it’s hard to think that this is serious.

Additionally, there this 20 minute video floating around, that YouTube has since taken down, of civilian reporters exposing the lies we were seeing in the news. 20 minutes of these 15 second - 1 minute long clips of people comparing the media’s claims to reality.
 

some examples include:

Media: they are setting up temporary mass   Morgues in the streets for all the deaths

civilian reporter: showing the same “mass morgues” The media showed and they were just emergency treatment stations and had long been vacant.

 

Media: Lines wrapping around the block as people scramble to get the aid they need.

Civilian reporter: at same location the next day... but it is an empty parking lot

 

Media: Ambulances in X city are being over used and they don’t have time to get to everyone

civilian reporter: in same city showing a hospital parking garage full of idle ambulances

 

Media: look at all these scary picture of covid-19 stuff

Civilian Reporter: showing that there are dozens of reused stock videos from years earlier during other sickness and non-sickness related events that they are using as c-19 propaganda.

It’s going to take a lot to convince me this is not some slippery slope that the media found themselves in.

I agree this is probably worst than the flu in many ways (as more people will get it and die from it)... but we should just quarantine the “at risk” people instead of killing our economy. 
 

Or the government can just keep passing stimulus checks that I can use on cool toys, either or I guess (I actually used it to pay off the rest of our debt. We definitely did not need it).

There ARE groups that are saying this stuff, such as all deaths are being attributed to Covid-19.  I don't know whether that is true or not.

One interesting thing was that they have kept track of Heroin and Cocaine deaths, which led to a sensationalist headline by one of these groups to try to claim more people died of heroin overdose than COVID-19 (which, was an interesting twist they made upon that, but more on that lower down).

The current STUDIES on it that are going on though, are the ones that are looking at the numbers and saying that it appears that the number of Deaths related to Covid-19 are being under-reported.

What IS something alarming is that there are groups trying to hide the fact that there ARE still deaths being reported for other causes other than COVID 19, and they are being reported from various locations all over the nation. 

What triggered the research into whether there could be an under-reported number of deaths was that (at least during the first few weeks) unless they could verify COVID in the corpse, or it had been verified they had it previously, they were not counting the death as being caused by COVID, but some other reason.  Due to the lack of tests, it raised a LOT of questions regarding the REAL numbers of those dying.

However, the actual full estimates and complete numbers do not come out until after the year is up.  I just read a document with the 2018 estimates, released recently in 2020.

Thus, we come to the estimated number of deaths from various things (heart attacks, etc) which are causing other complications.  Some deaths that were attributed to Heart Attacks, especially prior to the large numbers of COVID-19 showing up are now being suspected, in some instances, of actually being caused by COVID.  It's an evolving process. 

With Heroin and overdose, they have kept some estimates and numbers and early on in the epidemic hitting the US a conservative group took the numbers and tried to argue that more had died from Heroin overdoses than the Coronavirus.  They failed to mention they took it from a specific day (not even a week, but a day) and on that day the deaths caused by Heroin and Cocaine and other drugs WERE greater than the Coronavirus.  However, as they specified Heroin overdose, that only was about 1/3 of the number of deaths, meaning that it was actually less than the numbers who had died from the Coronavirus. 

What it DOES show is that these numbers from causes other than the Coronavirus are still being kept.  Generally, hospitals now have two different wards or areas, one where they keep the patients with the Coronavirus, and one where the patients without it are.  If a patient dies in the ward without the Coronavirus, they do not record it as a Coronavirus death.  This is why you STILL have reports of people dying from things other the COVID-19.  For example, Jerry Stiller recently died from natural causes.  Sam Lloyd died from Cancer.  Corey La Barrie died of a Car Crash.  Unless they find evidence of it being in their system, the death is not recorded as a COVID-19 death.

ON the otherhand, if they are in the Coronavirus ward, I am not sure.  It could be that ALL deaths in those wards are being counted as Coronavirus deaths regardless of whether it was or was not...I'm not sure. 

Still, on the research done thus far it appears that the deaths from the COVID-19 are being largely under-reported...but, these are ongoing research.  The results of the final estimates probably won't be out for another year or two.

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Guest MormonGator

Slightly off topic: I've seen other people lose it over being asked to wear a mask in public. I have no idea why this is such a big deal for people. 

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Guest MormonGator
Just now, Plein Air said:

I know of some people who have extreme claustrophobic attacks if any type of face covering is put on them or if someone else covers their mouth with their hands. 

That's sad, and I feel sorry for them. 

However, Covid can kill people. Actually kill people. If wearing a mask is too stressful or you refuse to do it because you "no one is going to tell me what to do!" You have some things to "work on." 

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6 minutes ago, MormonGator said:

Slightly off topic: I've seen other people lose it over being asked to wear a mask in public. I have no idea why this is such a big deal for people. 

Due to extensive damage to my sinuses I sometimes have to breathe through my mouth to get enough air. 

Most kinds of face mask make that difficult to impossible. 

So I can maybe wear my mask for 10 - 15 minutes at a time before I have to take it off and get a good, big breath. 

As you can imagine, I've had to fight my parents about this, as they think I'm just hyper-ventilating. 

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Guest MormonGator
3 minutes ago, Plein Air said:

Would you say that many people, without anxiety issues involving facial coverings, who refuse to wear a mask don't realize that the reason is to protect OTHER people, not themselves? 

It's based in cruelty, insensitivity, scientific ignorance or a misguided attempt to try to "stick it to the man." After all, no one tells me what to do. 

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5 hours ago, Fether said:

but we should just quarantine the “at risk” people instead of killing our economy. 

 

In years to come, looking back, this is what we will probably say was the correct choice.

 

 

Quote

Or the government can just keep passing stimulus checks that I can use on cool toys, either or I guess (I actually used it to pay off the rest of our debt. We definitely did not need it).

This is socialism in action (well, not the paying of debt part.)

Edited by mirkwood
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42 minutes ago, MormonGator said:

However, Covid can kill people. Actually kill people.

The clarion call was "Flatten the curve!", not "Don't ever let anyone ever get infected ever ever ever!" The curve has been flattened. Now it's time for people to quit panicking and get back to life. It's a virus. Everyone will get infected, eventually. We have moved from caution to paranoia, and I primarily blame the media (with the assistance from the finger-waggers who just can't help their impulse to signal their supreme virtue).

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Guest MormonGator
38 minutes ago, Vort said:

Everyone will get infected, eventually

Maybe. Maybe not. Everyone will die too, but it’s not up to you to decide when they do. 

Honestly it blows my mind how people react to thIs. It’s gotten to the point where it’s becoming ridiculous. Conservatives are pro life because they want to protect the innocent and helpless, but when it comes to asking them to wear a mask to protect my 88 year old grandmother or 44 year friend with a lung disease, they suddenly say “Hey, everyones gonna get it.” 

It’s a giant satire. And I’m not in on the joke. This is legitimately comical to me! 

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14 minutes ago, MormonGator said:

Maybe. Maybe not. Everyone will die too, but it’s not up to you to decide when they do. 

Honestly it blows my mind how people react to thIs. It’s gotten to the point where it’s becoming ridiculous. Conservatives are pro life because they want to protect the innocent and helpless, but when it comes to asking them to wear a mask to protect my 88 year old grandmother or 44 year friend with a lung disease, they suddenly say “Hey, everyones gonna get it.” 

 

It’s a giant satire. And I’m not in on the joke. 

I think we’ve had this conversation before.  Whether they want to admit it or not, most folks on both sides of the issue are dealing in cost-benefit analyses and not an ideologically pure commitment to saving life whatever the cost.
 

The differences come out in just what—and how much—the various sides are willing to give up in order to save a critical mass of lives; and the degree to which the various factions believe that the people at risk can/should assume the primary responsibility (and burden) in looking out for their own interests. 

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6 minutes ago, Just_A_Guy said:

I think we’ve had this conversation before.  Whether they want to admit it or not, most folks on both sides of the issue are dealing in cost-benefit analyses and not an ideologically pure commitment to saving life whatever the cost.
 

The differences come out in just what—and how much—the various sides are willing to give up in order to save a critical mass of lives; and the degree to which the various factions believe that the people at risk can/should assume the primary responsibility (and burden) in looking out for their own interests. 

Right JAG, and asking you to wear a mask in public truly is asking for the world. After all, taking 5 seconds to...put on a mask....what kind of man could carry such a burden?! I’m giving up so much. The Bill of Rights is on fire! 

Edited by MormonGator
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4 minutes ago, MormonGator said:

Right JAG, and asking you to wear a mask in public truly is asking for the world. After all, taking 5 seconds to...put on a mask....what kind of man could carry such a burden?! I’m giving up so much. The Bill of Rights is on fire! 

You’re preaching to the choir here!

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And yes, my sarcasm is in full view. I just don’t understand why people (and not just here of course) are so against this. We are supposed to “love the neighbor”, and be our brothers keeper, but if that means taking five seconds and spending 50 cents on a protective mask....eh, I’m probably misreading those passages. And your 88 year old grandmother had it coming anyway. 

Edited by MormonGator
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Glad to see a bit more transparency and realism coming out of our public health systems.  I've been running my daily chart of Colorado deaths since this thing started, only to find out we don't really have 1,150 dead, we have 878 dead.   Here's what hit CO yesterday:

 

image.png.5846a0066d73d5f7d793d2f4cc058e45.png

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5 minutes ago, Plein Air said:

wear a dang mask if you must go somewhere!

Right. It’s one thing for a secular, non believer to choose not to wear one. Though most are, ironically. But to call yourself a follower of Christ have such little regard for the safety and health of others is deeply concerning.

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1 hour ago, MormonGator said:

Right JAG, and asking you to wear a mask in public truly is asking for the world. After all, taking 5 seconds to...put on a mask....what kind of man could carry such a burden?! I’m giving up so much. The Bill of Rights is on fire! 

Exactly. As if asking a woman to wear a hijab in public is some kind of horrible burden! Grow up, women! Cover those faces! This is not hard! Sheesh.

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