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Carborendum

Taking Odds on the Election

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My mindset is at a point where it is becoming increasingly clear that Trump will NOT be re-elected.  So, we can look forward to the formalities of Biden being elected and inaugurated.  Then with a requisite time for respect for the old man, he will be subject to clause 4 of the 25th amendment. 

At that point whomever is going to be the vice president will be promoted and we can look forward to a tremendous transformation of this once powerful nation into a land of lawlessness, debauchery, and misdirction.  Oh, wait, we're already there.

Yes, I don't see a path away from any of this anymore unless the nation turns back to God.  But, sadly, I don't see that happening.

Edited by Carborendum

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Guest MormonGator
25 minutes ago, Carborendum said:

My mindset is at a point where it is becoming increasingly clear that Trump will NOT be re-elected.

I totally agree with you, but, having said that, most of us thought Hillary would win in 2016.  

2016 taught me that no one is a prophet when it comes to election predictions. 

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18 hours ago, Carborendum said:

My mindset is at a point where it is becoming increasingly clear that Trump will NOT be re-elected.  So, we can look forward to the formalities of Biden being elected and inaugurated.  Then with a requisite time for respect for the old man, he will be subject to clause 4 of the 25th amendment. 

At that point whomever is going to be the vice president will be promoted and we can look forward to a tremendous transformation of this once powerful nation into a land of lawlessness, debauchery, and misdirction.  Oh, wait, we're already there.

Yes, I don't see a path away from any of this anymore unless the nation turns back to God.  But, sadly, I don't see that happening.

What indicates this?

As an independent I am undecided overall.  I don't like Trump, I have never made any mystery of that.  I REALLY think what he's done with the nation during this pandemic has been a disaster.

On the otherhand, seeing all the rioting and looting, and what appears to be all the Democrats supporting this violence does not inspire me to lean towards them at this time either...in fact it is directly making me NOT want to vote democrat for anything.

I can't say what other independents will feel, but this entire rioting and protesting and looting can't have made most of them lean towards the Democrats, regardless of what the media makes it look like.

I can see the polls, but the polls seem to normally lean towards democrats and have a bias generally.  I'm not so sure of what will happen with the election yet.

It seems like once again we have a terrible choice.  We can either choose someone who cares about money over lives (in my view, not necessarily conservatives), or about power and media influence over lives (in my view, once again, not necessarily liberals).

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20 hours ago, Carborendum said:

At that point whomever is going to be the vice president will be promoted

Obama again??

I regrettably don't know anything about this subject. So...I asked Google if a former president could become a vice president and this is the first result... ugh...(dry swallows)...

Quote

Because of this apparent ambiguity, there may be a loophole in the 22nd Amendment whereby a two-term former president could be elected vice president and then succeed to the presidency as a result of the incumbent's death, resignation, or removal from office (or even succeed to the presidency from some other stated office in the presidential line of succession).

 

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Guest MormonGator
1 hour ago, JohnsonJones said:

On the otherhand, seeing all the rioting and looting, and what appears to be all the Democrats supporting this violence does not inspire me to lean towards them at this time either...in fact it is directly making me NOT want to vote democrat for anything.

I think a lot of people share that opinion JJ. They might stay home or vote third party in protest. You also have leftists who are still bitter that Biden beat Sanders, so that's another problem Biden has to deal with. 

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3 hours ago, Carborendum said:

Really?

I don't see Trump as being the candidate the Lord would choose, and I'm not necessarily sure that Biden is either.  At this point, who are you advocating people would elect if they turned to the Lord more?

However, that wasn't really what I was responding to.  It was

23 hours ago, Carborendum said:

My mindset is at a point where it is becoming increasingly clear that Trump will NOT be re-elected.  So, we can look forward to the formalities of Biden being elected and inaugurated. 

Which, I'm not sure is clear to me at all at this point.  I don't like Trump, but despite what the media is making out, I'm not a fan of all these riots and CHAZ/CHOP and all this other stuff.  I think there may be a large silent group that really are turned off by how the democrats are catering to these rioters and looters and ignoring everyone else. 

I can see the problems that many may have pointed out, but not to the extent that they are acting out in regards to it.

In addition, the entire point of the pandemic (which as I said, I feel Trump has not handled well at all) which they have made concerning social distancing, not gathering in large groups, is kind of mooted by these large groups of protesters gathering together.  IT IS kind of hypocritical for the Democrats to say it's wrong for people to go to church and gather in groups, but it's okay for Protesters to do so. 

All that tells me as an independent is that Democrats if they were in the presidency might not have handled it any better than Trump did.  It seems they will condone large groups gathering together constantly, even after the point is well made and understood, even in light of a pandemic that spreads among the cities where the protests have been occurring.  If protests over freedom for religious worship were condemned as not important enough (and religious freedom IS a guarantee under the Constitution) than protests of other sorts, though important, should also be put off or held to a lesser degree to make a point, and then ended until it's safer.  Other means (such as media discussion, and media involvement which they have done, but in the protests instead of other ways as much) could be continued to keep it in the public's mind. 

Thus, what indications have to support your idea that it is increasingly clear that Trump will NOT be re-elected.  It's not clear to me yet, as there is a great deal of murkiness in regards to the Democrats.  Thus far, they may be going to bungle this just as big as they did with Clinton, which is a shame.  There is no reason they should bungle it, but they certainly seem to want to.  It should be a simple shoo in, but they seem to be doing everything they can to make people like me hesitate strongly.

I don't even like Trump and think he's a terrible President during this Pandemic.  I should be one of the big targets that is an easy win for them.  I have no idea about others, but if I have big doubts about them right now, I don't think that can be a good sign for them.

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1 hour ago, Fether said:

In the groups I hang around, it is unanimously agreed that there is little chance Trump will lose the election.

I used to think that meant something until my supposedly conservative friends ganged on me when I expressed dismay at the government mandating face masks...

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7 hours ago, anatess2 said:

I used to think that meant something until my supposedly conservative friends ganged on me when I expressed dismay at the government mandating face masks...

Really!? I have yet to meet a single person that thinks the face masks are important (everyone I’m around is conservative)

Edited by Fether

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5 minutes ago, Fether said:

Really!? I have yet to meet a single person that thinks the face masks are important (everyone I’m around is conservative)

That's really odd.  I'm pretty conservative.  I think facemasks are important.  I just have much difficulty using them myself because of my medical issues.

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8 minutes ago, Carborendum said:

That's really odd.  I'm pretty conservative.  I think facemasks are important.  I just have much difficulty using them myself because of my medical issues.

I think it depends on the area you are living at.  Some areas are pretty anti-mask from what I understand.  It varies in my location.  I went to the store last week and no one was wearing a mask (except for me), but I went to a university meeting that same day (outside, less than 20 of us in the department, social distancing, trying to get some things discussed about the next few months) and every single one of us was wearing a mask.

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2 hours ago, Carborendum said:

That's really odd.  I'm pretty conservative.  I think facemasks are important.  I just have much difficulty using them myself because of my medical issues.

At church yesterday everyone came in with masks, but once the service started and the sacrament was past out, everyone effectively took their masks off. Everyone I know hates masks and thinks this whole thing is Hullabaloo.

I am straining my memory to think of someone I have met that thinks it is important to wear masks... but no one is coming to mind.

It probably stems from the fact that this is a red state, and the area I live in (Southern Utah) has seen little of this so called COVID. Here it has a reported .7%, but that doesn’t include unconfirmed cases and if 80% are a-symptomatic, the death rate is probably closer to .1%. I said this before, but I was at a packed Home Depot a couple weeks ago and I saw only two or three families with masks on.

I personally think this is all hullabaloo. I and 3 others share a work laptop with a coworker that was diagnosed with Covid-19. Despite taking 0 measures to prevent getting sick, We were all tested and no one got it.

Edited by Fether

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Guest MormonGator
10 hours ago, Fether said:

In the groups I hang around, it is unanimously agreed that there is little chance Trump will lose the election.

Remember that Hillary fans thought the same thing in 2016.  

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1 hour ago, MormonGator said:

Remember that Hillary fans thought the same thing in 2016.  

That’s why I haven’t been strident in predicting Trump’s loss this year, though things do seem to look pretty bleak at the moment.

I am inclined to think, though, that if he loses—conservatives and conservatism will be as vulnerable as they’ve been at any time since 2003; and maybe even since 1976.

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2 hours ago, Fether said:

It probably stems from the fact that this is a red state, and the area I live in (Southern Utah) has seen little of this so called COVID. Here it has a reported .7%, but that doesn’t include unconfirmed cases and if 80% are a-symptomatic, the death rate is probably closer to .1%. I said this before, but I was at a packed Home Depot a couple weeks ago and I saw only two or three families with masks on.

I don't think the %'s matter as much as the ability/capacity of the hospitals in the region have.  If I was in Southern Utah, I'd be sure I was being extra cautious.

https://www.stgeorgeutah.com/news/archive/2020/06/26/cdr-we-need-your-help-with-dixie-regional-medical-centers-icu-nearly-full-chief-doctor-asks-people-to-wear-masks/#.XwNC6ihKiUl

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5 hours ago, Fether said:

Really!? I have yet to meet a single person that thinks the face masks are important (everyone I’m around is conservative)

My closest friend in the ward just told my husband he's a disgusting human being because my husband posted Braveheart's Freedom Meme over the Government Mask Mandate and took a selfie fishing in the county next door with no Mask Mandate.  FISHING.  If you're within 20 feet of a guy fishing, you're too close and he can whip you with that rod (wait... is there a no rod whipping mandate?).  

By the way, I just went shopping in the predominantly black neighborhood's Walmart yesterday and, if I was to use statistics to presume 90% of them are democrats, then 90% of the democrats were not wearing masks in a government mask mandate.  So, I don't know anymore if this is a conservative versus liberal issue rather than a "I'm so scared of covid, I'd rather live under Nazi government and feel safer" issue.

Edited by anatess2

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Guest MormonGator
1 hour ago, Just_A_Guy said:

conservatives and conservatism will be as vulnerable as they’ve been at any time since 2003; and maybe even since 1976.

 Conservatism was so vulnerable that four years later they elected Ronald Reagan. 

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8 minutes ago, MormonGator said:

 Conservatism was so vulnerable that four years later they elected Ronald Reagan. 

I wonder whether anyone in the GOP today has the kind of intra- and cross-party luster that they can parlay into the presidency four years from now, that Reagan had in ‘76.  (Reagan’s convention speech that year positioned him as heir apparent before Ford had even left the White House.)

The GOP has been doing a splendid job of eating its own lately. . .

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Guest MormonGator
6 minutes ago, Just_A_Guy said:

The GOP has been doing a splendid job of eating its own lately. . .

Lately? it's been happening since the dawn of time JAG. Politics was never this pretty, polite game. It's always been filthy. 

I remember some lady on my Facebook crabbing about "Oh, how I wish we could go back to the time where our country was unified and the parties disagreed on things but were polite to each other! Now, the parties can't even agree with themselves!" 

My response was "If you can't stand arguments, division, one side winning and one side losing, you need to find other interests. Politics isn't for you." 

And in 76, after losing to Ford in a squeaker, Reagan was considered sort of washed up. In fact, until the famous "I'm paying for this microphone Mr. Breen (yes, he got the name wrong)...." moment GOP voters were looking towards Bush. 

Edited by MormonGator

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29 minutes ago, MormonGator said:

And in 76, after losing to Ford in a squeaker, Reagan was considered sort of washed up. In fact, until the famous "I'm paying for this microphone Mr. Breen (yes, he got the name wrong)...." moment GOP voters were looking towards Bush. 

The gods at Wikipedia seem to say otherwise . . . That Reagan’s polling was so good he basically chose an “above the fray” strategy and didn’t really campaign in earnest until he lost the Iowa straw poll.

I was, after all, alive then; as you are fond of reminding me. ;) 

Edited by Just_A_Guy

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