Taking Odds on the Election


Carborendum
 Share

Recommended Posts

Guest MormonGator
11 minutes ago, Just_A_Guy said:

I was, after all, alive then; as you are fond of reminding me. ;) 

We're talking about Reagan dude, not Madison. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, dprh said:

I don't think the %'s matter as much as the ability/capacity of the hospitals in the region have.  If I was in Southern Utah, I'd be sure I was being extra cautious.

https://www.stgeorgeutah.com/news/archive/2020/06/26/cdr-we-need-your-help-with-dixie-regional-medical-centers-icu-nearly-full-chief-doctor-asks-people-to-wear-masks/#.XwNC6ihKiUl

As of yesterday, there were only 21 currently hospitalizeD

https://swuhealth.org/covid/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've made dozens of predictions, and so far, they've all failed, except for this one, made in March 2016.  It's starting to get creepy, especially because of what comes next:

Quote

Little something in here to offend everybody:

Donald Trump will win the presidency, despite the fact that almost every single American voter actively campaigns against him (on Facebook at least).

President Trump will do a bunch of stuff that you'll hate and I'll like. He'll do a bunch of stuff that you'll like and I'll hate. And then he'll do one or two things that the entire world hates. People will cross aisles and form new alliances in order to stop it, but some of it will happen anyway.

People will start drawing analogies with Nixon. Some folks will try to make the best of it, and you'll hear the old phrase resurrected "Yeah, he's a [beep], but he's our [beep]." In Washington, Pro Trump liberals will suddenly remember things like Nixon ending the war in VietNam. Anti Trump conservatives will openly rebel in every way feasible, from impeachment, to attempting a constitutional convention.

I predict the Trump presidency will end it's second term early, but whether by resignation, impeachment, or natural-death-conspiracy-fodder I can't tell. The event will mark a rare coming-together of Americans and the world in a unified shout of "Good riddance". Then our collective attnetion will swing to Lady Gaga's televised live birth - a genderfluid child born pregnant, having won it's first Oscar in-utero, and the world will not speak the name Trump for two decades. Our grandchildren will eventually figure out that he actually saved us all despite all our best efforts to stop him. If we hadn't banded together against him, we never would have been ready for the evil space emperor and his gelatinous armies.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Quote

Donald Trump will win the presidency, despite the fact that almost every single American voter actively campaigns against him (on Facebook at least).

Fulfilled.

Quote

President Trump will do a bunch of stuff that you'll hate and I'll like. He'll do a bunch of stuff that you'll like and I'll hate. And then he'll do one or two things that the entire world hates. People will cross aisles and form new alliances in order to stop it, but some of it will happen anyway.

Fulfilled.

Quote

People will start drawing analogies with Nixon. Some folks will try to make the best of it, and you'll hear the old phrase resurrected "Yeah, he's a [beep], but he's our [beep]." In Washington, Pro Trump liberals will suddenly remember things like Nixon ending the war in VietNam. Anti Trump conservatives will openly rebel in every way feasible, from impeachment, to attempting a constitutional convention.

Fulfilled.

Quote

I predict the Trump presidency will end it's second term early, but whether by resignation, impeachment, or natural-death-conspiracy-fodder I can't tell.

I'm predicting he won't be re-elected. But this will work too.

Quote

The event will mark a rare coming-together of Americans and the world in a unified shout of "Good riddance".

Fulfilled.  Wrong person.

Capture.PNG.d6a6baa7ecb3cc0d22dcc067a60c6c55.PNG

Quote

Then our collective attnetion will swing to Lady Gaga's televised live birth - a genderfluid child born pregnant, having won it's first Oscar in-utero, and the world will not speak the name Trump for two decades.

I can see it now:

Capture2.PNG.4a61d5c811aa3fd95ffcfb4a675ee389.PNG

Quote

Our grandchildren will eventually figure out that he actually saved us all despite all our best efforts to stop him. If we hadn't banded together against him, we never would have been ready for the evil space emperor and his gelatinous armies.

But imagine how fashionable it would be.

fashion.PNG.b833ca35f45cd32ea4ba7d614a868be9.PNG

Edited by Carborendum
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, dprh said:

 And it doesn't seem like it would take much for that 21 to increase if people stop following guidelines.

And that was my point. Most people down here aren’t following guidelines and never were.

Edited by Fether
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, dprh said:

21 with COVID.  There are others in the ICU for different reasons.  And it doesn't seem like it would take much for that 21 to increase if people stop following guidelines.

A lot of people like to say this.  Yet, they have no idea who are making the guidelines and why.  "Wear a mask"... "Why?"... "Because the internet says you won't transmit Cov-19 if you wear one."... "But I don't have Cov-19."... "You don't know if you have Cov-19"... "I've been quarantined in my house for 4 months and have not come into contact with anybody close enough to catch Cov-19"... "You don't know that...you're going to kill grandma"... "So, how do you know that wearing a mask will stop grandma from dying?"... "Because the internet..."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, Carborendum said:

What if McEnany were the bottom of the ticket in 2024?

I have nothing against her personally.  But if we are already looking to a thirty-two-year-old White House press secretary who’s only really been in the national spotlight for less than six months, and trying to shoehorn her into the vice presidency; then I think that sort of illustrates my point.  

Edited by Just_A_Guy
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 7/5/2020 at 9:34 PM, anatess2 said:

I used to think that meant something until my supposedly conservative friends ganged on me when I expressed dismay at the government mandating face masks...

 

17 hours ago, Carborendum said:

That's really odd.  I'm pretty conservative.  I think facemasks are important.  I just have much difficulty using them myself because of my medical issues.

I was in Asia in the middle of SARS - I was in meetings with Chinese, Japanese and Koreans.  I never wore a mask, mostly because I did not have one but everybody else wore a mask.   I did not get sick although several that were in the meetings that did wear a mask, did catch it.   The political rhetoric is that a mask does not prevent you from catching what is going around but it does prevent you from spreading what is going around.  I think a mask is a placebo.  As per a government mandate - I believe it is a meaningless no op.  Mostly for the purpose of those in political power demanding masks can say they followed the science and did all they could????

Health care is the only system I know of where the experts can fail miserably (the patient dies) and no one thinks it is their fault - including them.  I guess that is why they call it a practice.  In the engineering world (where I came from) when an engineer fails and someone dies because of it - that demographic is one of the highest suicide rate in the world.  Despite what many think - engineers do have feelings - and as an engineer - I am of the impression that most people are kind of upside down with their feelings.

 

The Traveler

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Traveler said:

I was in Asia in the middle of SARS - I was in meetings with Chinese, Japanese and Koreans.  I never wore a mask, mostly because I did not have one but everybody else wore a mask.   I did not get sick although several that were in the meetings that did wear a mask, did catch it.   The political rhetoric is that a mask does not prevent you from catching what is going around but it does prevent you from spreading what is going around.  I think a mask is a placebo.  As per a government mandate - I believe it is a meaningless no op.  Mostly for the purpose of those in political power demanding masks can say they followed the science and did all they could????

Health care is the only system I know of where the experts can fail miserably (the patient dies) and no one thinks it is their fault - including them.  I guess that is why they call it a practice.  In the engineering world (where I came from) when an engineer fails and someone dies because of it - that demographic is one of the highest suicide rate in the world.  Despite what many think - engineers do have feelings - and as an engineer - I am of the impression that most people are kind of upside down with their feelings.

The Traveler

For the most part, I agree.

Just as an interesting side note regarding when engineers fail, I remember a time when a particular design failed and they called me to determine what happened. 

I went through a thorough review of the entire design.  Everything was well within acceptable parameters.  All inputs were correct.  All the calculations were mathematically flawless.  All code provisions were followed to the letter.  Outputs were fine.   Plenty of factor of safety. 

Then I went into the fabrication and construction side.  I reviewed all the factory material specifications and certifications.  I reviewed all the processes and procedures.  I reviewed the construction records and inspection records.

I went to a forensic engineer to get a second opinion.  He agreed that my calculations and design were not to blame.  There was no reason this should have failed.  There was NOTHING wrong.   His conclusion was that someone falsified a report.  In his experience a failure like this had a particular weak link.  And that party didn't want to own up to it.

Because I had no proof that anyone had falsified a report, I had to report that I couldn't find anything that would explain this failure.  But all we were responsible for was making sure that our design was not to blame.

In a similar vein, I believe that (even if the mask is a placebo) everyone wants to make sure that they are not the weak link in the chain.

Edited by Carborendum
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Traveler said:

 

I was in Asia in the middle of SARS - I was in meetings with Chinese, Japanese and Koreans.  I never wore a mask, mostly because I did not have one but everybody else wore a mask.   I did not get sick although several that were in the meetings that did wear a mask, did catch it.   The political rhetoric is that a mask does not prevent you from catching what is going around but it does prevent you from spreading what is going around.  I think a mask is a placebo.  As per a government mandate - I believe it is a meaningless no op.  Mostly for the purpose of those in political power demanding masks can say they followed the science and did all they could????

Health care is the only system I know of where the experts can fail miserably (the patient dies) and no one thinks it is their fault - including them.  I guess that is why they call it a practice.  In the engineering world (where I came from) when an engineer fails and someone dies because of it - that demographic is one of the highest suicide rate in the world.  Despite what many think - engineers do have feelings - and as an engineer - I am of the impression that most people are kind of upside down with their feelings.

 

The Traveler

The difference is the situation.  A doctor isn't creating something from nothing generally, they are fixing something already broken or a disaster occurring.

To put it in perspective.  If you were an engineer over saving buildings then the situation is to bring you to a house that is burning to the ground.  You are told to save it.  If it burns to the point where it is condemned or has to be rebuilt (because doctors cannot normally bring people back to life) you have failed. 

Many times you will literally have minutes or less to try to save the building before it is burned to that point.  You aren't given days before it happens, you are brought to the building as it is burning.

In that light, doctors are incredibly successful considering the situations they are in.

Easier situatiosn (Broken bones and such) may be more to where someone has their basement flooded or their roof caves in and you have to fix it up and repair it.  Easier to get done, but doctor's don't have a lot of fatalities in lesser medical situations.

Edited by JohnsonJones
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On the subject of engineering:

Quote

“It is a great profession. There is the fascination of watching a figment of the imagination emerge through the aid of science to a plan on paper. Then it moves to realization in stone or metal or energy. Then it brings jobs and homes to men. Then it elevates the standards of living and adds to the comforts of life. That is the engineer’s high privilege.”

“The great liability of the engineer compared to men of other professions is that his works are out in the open where all can see them. His acts, step by step, are in hard substance. He cannot bury his mistakes in the grave like the doctors. He cannot argue them into thin air or blame the judge like the lawyers. He cannot, like the politicians, screen his shortcomings by blaming his opponents and hope the people will forget. The engineer simple cannot deny he did it. If his works do not work, he is damned.”

“On the other hand, unlike the doctor, his is not a life among the weak. Unlike the soldier, destruction is not his purpose. Unlike the lawyer, quarrels are not his daily bread. To the engineer falls the job of clothing the bare bones of science with life, comfort, and hope. No doubt as the years go by people forget what engineer did it, even if they ever knew. Or some politician puts his name on it. Or they credit it to some promoter who used other people’s money. But the engineer himself looks back at the unending stream of goodness which flows from his successes with satisfaction that few professions may know. And the verdict of his fellow professional is all the accolade he wants.”

 -- Herbert Hoover,  Engineer's Week, 1954

Edited by Carborendum
Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

Best dang argument for masks I've found so far:

Philippians 2:3, KJV: "Let nothing be done through strife or vainglory; but in lowliness of mind let each esteem other better than themselves."

Yeah.  That's the problem with social media.  They come up with these fad science just to make themselves feel better then if other people don't conform to the fad science because they see through the b.s. they come up with mis-applied scripture to back it all up so they can continue the social pressure with gaslights.  One of the reasons I can't stand bible thumpers.

Edited by anatess2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, Carborendum said:

On the subject of engineering:

A friend of mine was the foreman in the construction of an intercoastal bridge.  Everytime we drive over the bridge he says, "this is my bridge" such that it has become tradition.  The bridge is named after some important historical figure.  I used to tell him, they should've named it after you.  But then he says to me, I just followed the civil engineers' diagrams.  It should be named after them. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, anatess2 said:

A friend of mine was the foreman in the construction of an intercoastal bridge.  Everytime we drive over the bridge he says, "this is my bridge" such that it has become tradition.  The bridge is named after some important historical figure.  I used to tell him, they should've named it after you.  But then he says to me, I just followed the civil engineers' diagrams.  It should be named after them. 

Funny thing about bridges:  They're mostly formulaic.  Yes, from time-to-time you get the architectural wonders that become tourist attractions.  But most modern bridges you see are just copy-pasta.  Adjust a bit for geometry and local conditions.  And viola a "unique" bridge all up to code and everything.

I had the opportunity to work on a bridge that was going to be unique.  When I presented them the concept design, they got all excited.  When I provided them the budget, they went back to the same-old same-old.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, Carborendum said:

What if McEnany were the bottom of the ticket in 2024?

This is my opinion...

When choosing a possible POTUS/VPOTUS, proven leadership (Executive Skills) should be a higher requirement than wit (masterful communication).  And even higher than that is the direction of one's natural compass (separate from the party's compass, taking into consideration one's self-interest).  McEnany has great communication skills and can drive a narrative but has unproven leadership skills.  Ivanka has proven leadership but I don't trust her natural compass.  Don Jr has both leadership and a compass directed in the same direction as my inclinations, but he is lacking his father's (and McEnany's) masterful ability to control the narrative even as he has wit.  I can't really think of anybody right now who can do what DJT can do and has done.  As has been evident, establishment positions in the Executive branch has been going rogue for decades and 4 years of DJT just managed to put a dent on the machine.  For 2024, you need a DJT-like candidate that, not only can make that dent break wide open, but can also masterfully get Congress on board with the compass to change the culture of Exective Orders into lasting legislation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, JohnsonJones said:

The difference is the situation.  A doctor isn't creating something from nothing generally, they are fixing something already broken or a disaster occurring.

To put it in perspective.  If you were an engineer over saving buildings then the situation is to bring you to a house that is burning to the ground.  You are told to save it.  If it burns to the point where it is condemned or has to be rebuilt (because doctors cannot normally bring people back to life) you have failed. 

Many times you will literally have minutes or less to try to save the building before it is burned to that point.  You aren't given days before it happens, you are brought to the building as it is burning.

In that light, doctors are incredibly successful considering the situations they are in.

Easier situatiosn (Broken bones and such) may be more to where someone has their basement flooded or their roof caves in and you have to fix it up and repair it.  Easier to get done, but doctor's don't have a lot of fatalities in lesser medical situations.

I do not care who you talk to - they will likely have a horror story somewhere in their personal health care history.  It is not that I wish to bash doctors or the medical profession (my next door neighbor is a doctor and best friend) - however it is a science that is capable of the incredible for the good or not so good.  But the main problem, as it appears to me is a point of propaganda.  In short a great gap in the applications of the science.  In the USA the greatest health problems are sedate (lazy) lifestyles, and bad eating habits (overeating).  The most common remedies (cures) proscribed  by our health care system are drugs and surgery.   Obviously, such application is not sustainable in the long run and such application will obviously contribute to escalating costs.  Which is why politicians can run around saying the system is broken and get away with programs that stress and break the system worse.

The only science I can think of with a worse track record is the mental health system.  An to be honest - the mental health community is so screwed up (in my opinion) that a "placebo" seems to be better than a "cure".   My mother-in-law suffered from acute bipolar disorder.  I never had any good ideas how to deal with her beyond an effort to be nice and maintain my own sanity.   The big revelation came the last week of her life when she changed in a 180 fashion and for that week became a sweet, loving, appreciative and caring person.  During the rest of her life - it seemed that all the treatments only exacerbated her problem.

 

The Traveler

Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, Carborendum said:

Funny thing about bridges:  They're mostly formulaic.  Yes, from time-to-time you get the architectural wonders that become tourist attractions.  But most modern bridges you see are just copy-pasta.  Adjust a bit for geometry and local conditions.  And viola a "unique" bridge all up to code and everything.

I had the opportunity to work on a bridge that was going to be unique.  When I presented them the concept design, they got all excited.  When I provided them the budget, they went back to the same-old same-old.

There is no science to budget.   Whenever I was asked about cost - I would say that the project could be done correctly, on time and cheep and that since they were in charge - they get to pick two of whatever is the most important to them.

 

The Traveler

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share