Taking Odds on the Election


Carborendum
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10 hours ago, NeedleinA said:

Appears clear that Arizona is determined to get to the bottom of their election system and confirm to it's voters that either it functions securely/properly or there was fraud in the Presidential election. Today Arizona had a preliminary hearing where they shared that the audit on Maricopa County alone had issues with 74k votes. That is just Maricopa. 
Both Pennsylvania and Georgia appear to be next to conduct election audits. 

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What would be worse, stopping an individual from taking office OR trying to remove them from office it was acquired?
Perhaps we might find out. 

I'm still with Carb though:

 

Depends on what you mean my removing them.  The Supreme Court has never removed a sitting president and I really doubt this conservative court will try to break new ground (and I am not sure it is constitutionally possible)  But what we do have is the mid-terms... The current setup is on very narrow margins and historically the party out of power makes gains in the mid terms.  If either the House or the Senate flips then the current administration is stalled and limited to executive actions.

If they get the House then they can move to impeach (Because that has been weaponized now and claims do not need to be proven to start it) on the basis of being fraudulently elected, that process would allow for a federal election investigation.  The results of that would be interesting.  If the impeachment process runs to the end that could remove the President and we have been over that ground before and we know what it looks like.

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1 hour ago, Godless said:

It makes sense. In my (Minnesota) county, people had the option to show up early to vote in-person even if a ballot had been mailed to them. These in-person ballots were processed like mail-in ballots, and the ballot that was mailed to you would be voided in the event that you decided to vote in-person instead. Therefore, my county probably received far more "mail-in" ballots than it sent out because it's likely that a lot of people who never requested mail-in ballots voted early in person, and those votes were counted as mail-in. It also means that a voter may have received a ballot in the mail with its own unique barcode ID, but submitted a ballot in-person on a different ballot with a different barcode ID. Even if they filled out and returned both ballots, only one would be counted.

This is a whole lot of double speak that relies on the conflation of "mail-in" with "early voting".

Either that or you really need to re-word this.  It really makes no sense to use this as an explanation for the claims in Maricopa County.

Did you want to re-word this?

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5 minutes ago, Carborendum said:

This is a whole lot of double speak that relies on the conflation of "mail-in" with "early voting".

Either that or you really need to re-word this.  It really makes no sense to use this as an explanation for the claims in Maricopa County.

Did you want to re-word this?

Not only that... if we are talking election fraud.. we need to be careful about thinking along party lines only... Fraud is fraud and if it is wide spread it is really doubtful that it is limited to just one party.. So the idea that a member of a different party is protesting findings is not definitive it is simply another set of claims to process.

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1 hour ago, Godless said:

Maricopa County addressed this on social media.

I guess going door-to-door to ask people if they're vaccinated is tyranny, but doing it to ask if people voted is saving democracy? 🤔

Do you mean Maricopa County (the one who ignores subpoenas) was none to happy to have anything said about their voting procedures? Shocker.
The same county that has restricted and tried to impede the audit at every turn... you mean that group? Shocker again.
I guess one Twitter post from MC and we should all just pack it up and go home now.

Since the auditors are working with limited access/restricted information, they said they may need to resort to door to door since the county is withholding necessary data.
IF the county would simply provide the necessary information:
1. No door to door would be necessary
2. They could voluntarily, in goodwill, demonstrate to their citizens that they were 100% forthcoming and followed all election laws.

Spoiler: they won't do it.

Republican, Democrat, Independent... I don't care at all. Prove that the system works and put this to rest for the voters and following elections.

Edited by NeedleinA
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1 hour ago, estradling75 said:

But what we do have is the mid-terms...

If there is no election fraud, then I agree, the mid-terms are a viable solution.
If there is election fraud, then what would make the mid-terms any more hopeful then the past elections we just went through?
If individuals have cracked the code and are gaming the system, then no election moving forward means diddly squat as it can just be gamed after the fact.

Every current anti-audit person should be EXCITED to see the audits completed, then they can forever rub it in everyone else's face that there was no fraud. They will be vindicated and should be able to shoot down future claims of election fraud with ease. Why wouldn't they enjoy a big, "I told you so audit conspiracy nuts"?

Edited by NeedleinA
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I remember being on the winning side in 2000, which was incredibly contested.  I remember when Al Gore and his side called foul and refused to give up.  Wisconsin and Oregon were incredibly close, but it didn't matter because whoever won Florida would take the prize. I remember Gore's team of lawyers energetically suing away, all the way up to the supreme court.  I remember dimpled chads, and uncounted ballots, and my 2 decade dislike of Broward County began.  

I also remember everyone on my side, howling like they were being murdered, at Gore's antics.  My side of the fence was grabbing every megaphone we could find, and standing on every soapbox, shouting about how the nation depends on accepting the results of a free election.  How our nation was a collection of shared values, and if you erode election confidence, you erode a cornerstone of national legitimacy, and therefore Gore needed to knock it off.  I remember some of us accusing election officials in Broward, and Miami-Dade, and Palm Beach, of fraud.  We loathed and hated them, and mocked and yelled at them.  I remember nobody was happy about Gore forcing the supreme court to pick the winner.  One side hated it because it weakened the country, the other side hated it because they lost the fight.  I remember how so many from Gore's side spent 8 years yelling "not my president", and sticking it on bumper stickers, and bringing it up in every national debate.  

Now, a scant two decades later, the same thing is being played out on a larger scale with multiple states, and everyone has switched sides.  And I'm hearing the same arguments, everyone saying the exact opposite of what they were saying 20 years ago.

And I'm not happy, because I'm sort of in agreement with the notion that shared values make a nation stronger, and notions of illegitimate elections weaken a nation.  It's why our enemies spend so much effort with their behind-the-scenes amplifying claims of election fraud.

Edited by NeuroTypical
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Guest Godless
1 hour ago, Carborendum said:

This is a whole lot of double speak that relies on the conflation of "mail-in" with "early voting".

Either that or you really need to re-word this.  It really makes no sense to use this as an explanation for the claims in Maricopa County.

Did you want to re-word this?

To clarify, if you showed up at the election office to vote early in-person, you were given a mail-in ballot. You filled it out, signed it, and sealed it exactly like you would if you were filling it out at home. The only difference is that you put the ballot in a box at the election office instead of a mailbox. But the ballots themselves were exactly the same. Hypothetically, in-person ballots could be counted alongside ballots that were mailed in and there would be no immediate way to tell the difference.

So, let's say that the county sent out 20,000 mail-in ballots. For the sake of simplicity, let's say that all 20,000 of those ballots were returned by mail. Now, let's say that an additional 20,000 people who did NOT request or receive mail-in ballots decide to vote in-person at the election office. My county's procedure was to give them the mail-in ballot to be completed, sealed, and handed over in-person. So ultimately, the county received 40,000 mail-in ballots despite only sending out 20,000.

My understanding is that the process in Maricopa County was similar to this.

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Guest Godless
47 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

I remember being on the winning side in 2000, which was incredibly contested.  I remember when Al Gore and his side called foul and refused to give up.  Wisconsin and Oregon were incredibly close, but it didn't matter because whoever won Florida would take the prize. I remember Gore's team of lawyers energetically suing away, all the way up to the supreme court.  I remember dimpled chads, and uncounted ballots, and my 2 decade dislike of Broward County began.  

I also remember everyone on my side, howling like they were being murdered, at Gore's antics.  My side of the fence was grabbing every megaphone we could find, and standing on every soapbox, shouting about how the nation depends on accepting the results of a free election.  How our nation was a collection of shared values, and if you erode election confidence, you erode a cornerstone of national legitimacy, and therefore Gore needed to knock it off.  I remember some of us accusing election officials in Broward, and Miami-Dade, and Palm Beach, of fraud.  We loathed and hated them, and mocked and yelled at them.  I remember nobody was happy about Gore forcing the supreme court to pick the winner.  One side hated it because it weakened the country, the other side hated it because they lost the fight.  I remember how so many from Gore's side spent 8 years yelling "not my president", and sticking it on bumper stickers, and bringing it up in every national debate.  

Now, a scant two decades later, the same thing is being played out on a larger scale with multiple states, and everyone has switched sides.  And I'm hearing the same arguments, everyone saying the exact opposite of what they were saying 20 years ago.

And I'm not happy, because I'm sort of in agreement with the notion that shared values make a nation stronger, and notions of illegitimate elections weaken a nation.  It's why our enemies spend so much effort with their behind-the-scenes amplifying claims of election fraud.

A couple of key distinctions.

1. Gore himself never claimed that there was deliberate foul play. Other Dems may have, but Gore and his legal team did not. They just wanted a recount.

2. Ultimately, Gore conceded the election and accepted that Bush was the rightful president. Again, other Dems may not have, but Gore tried to set the right example.

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50 minutes ago, Godless said:

Ultimately, Gore conceded the election and accepted that Bush was the rightful president

Exactly. Gore did was Trump is not capable of. 
 

Trumpers are going through the stages of grief right now, it’s just taking them an incredibly long time. Denial, anger, bargaining. Maybe in 2044, when Trump is 98, they’ll be in the acceptance stage. 

Edited by LDSGator
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5 hours ago, Godless said:

To clarify, if you showed up at the election office to vote early in-person, you were given a mail-in ballot. You filled it out, signed it, and sealed it exactly like you would if you were filling it out at home. The only difference is that you put the ballot in a box at the election office instead of a mailbox. But the ballots themselves were exactly the same. Hypothetically, in-person ballots could be counted alongside ballots that were mailed in and there would be no immediate way to tell the difference.

So, let's say that the county sent out 20,000 mail-in ballots. For the sake of simplicity, let's say that all 20,000 of those ballots were returned by mail. Now, let's say that an additional 20,000 people who did NOT request or receive mail-in ballots decide to vote in-person at the election office. My county's procedure was to give them the mail-in ballot to be completed, sealed, and handed over in-person. So ultimately, the county received 40,000 mail-in ballots despite only sending out 20,000.

My understanding is that the process in Maricopa County was similar to this.

That is much more clear.  Thank you.

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9 hours ago, LDSGator said:

Exactly. Gore did was Trump is not capable of. 
 

Trumpers are going through the stages of grief right now, it’s just taking them an incredibly long time. Denial, anger, bargaining. Maybe in 2044, when Trump is 98, they’ll be in the acceptance stage. 

So, you know I have no love lost for Trump; and his post-electoral conduct has made me dislike him even more.

That said:  I think it’s fair to point out that for a lot of the supporters, this is less about Trump (or even purported election fraud) than about the dawning realization that the country and values they learned about in high school civics doesn’t exist anymore (if ever it did).  The last few years have illustrated the obvious hollowing out of a number of previously-trusted American institutions—not just the press and academia but the courts, DOJ, FBI, corporate America, and even increasingly the military.  Take a look at the Twitter thread that’s been copied and pasted here.  

I still think conservatives need to stay engaged in the traditional civics game; because short of bloodshed, that’s really all there is to play—if nothing else, the January 6 capitol occupation/hasty retreat (and the squealing like stuck pigs ever since) has shown that even the Trump wing of the GOP doesn’t have the guts for a bona fide revolution.

But I can understand why people are mad; and while I can fault Trump for stoking that anger when he had a responsibility to at least try to tamp it down—there’s no point in pretending that he created the situation.

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1 hour ago, Just_A_Guy said:

So, you know I have no love lost for Trump; and his post-electoral conduct has made me dislike him even more.

 

Oh, understand fully my friend. No need to defend yourself. 

 

1 hour ago, Just_A_Guy said:

That said:  I think it’s fair to point out that for a lot of the supporters, this is less about Trump

I disagree strongly. It’s 100% about their leader, Trump, and how he convinces his hardcore supporters to believe truly bizarre things and in worse case scenarios, act upon them, like their comically inept “revolution” that happened. Does Trump represent their values? Sure, but how they acted and still act in regards to him is what you would expect from a cult leader. 

 The Obamabots were bad in 2008, and while they lack the self awareness to see it, they set the seeds for worship of our political idols. Unlike you and I @Just_A_Guy, liberals simply can’t engage in self critique. It’s just not in them. 

 

1 hour ago, Just_A_Guy said:

But I can understand why people are mad; and while I can fault Trump for stoking that anger when he had a responsibility to at least try to tamp it down—there’s no point in pretending that he created the situation.

Created it? Nope. Fanned the flames with his obnoxious and boorish behavior? You bet. So, while he didn’t start the fire, he doused it with gasoline. 
 

So I do understand your points my friend, I just see it differently. 
 

btw, have you read “On a Sea of Glass”? Best Titanic book out there. 

Edited by LDSGator
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20 minutes ago, LDSGator said:

Oh, understand fully my friend. No need to defend yourself. 

 

I disagree strongly. It’s 100% about their leader, Trump, and how he convinces his hardcore supporters to believe truly bizarre things and in worse case scenarios, act upon them, like their comically inept “revolution” that happened. Does Trump represent their values? Sure, but how they acted and still act in regards to him is what you would expect from a cult leader. 

 The Obamabots were bad in 2008, and while they lack the self awareness to see it, they set the seeds for worship of our political idols. Unlike you and I @Just_A_Guy, liberals simply can’t engage in self critique. It’s just not in them. 

 

Created it? Nope. Fanned the flames with his obnoxious and boorish behavior? You bet. So, while he didn’t start the fire, he doused it with gasoline. 
 

So I do understand your points my friend, I just see it differently. 
 

btw, have you read “On a Sea of Glass”? Best Titanic book out there. 

Yep.  I read it as an ebook and finally bought the paperback last year.  It’s very, very thorough—maybe even a bit laborious!  
 

“Report into the Loss of the SS Titanic:  A Centennial Reappraisal” is also excellent—it basically follows the same structure as Lord Mersey’s report at the end of the British Inquiry, but takes into account data that was learned in the ensuing century.  

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Just now, Just_A_Guy said:

Yep.  I read it as an ebook and finally bought the paperback last year.  It’s very, very thorough—maybe even a bit laborious!  
 

“Report into the Loss of the SS Titanic:  A Centennial Reappraisal” is also excellent—it basically follows the same structure as Lord Mersey’s report at the end of the British Inquiry, but takes into account data that was learned in the ensuing century.  

I have not read that one-thanks for the recommend my friend. Jeez dude, you answer these posts faster than FB messages 😉 
 

“Unsinkable” by Daniel Butler is also a good one. 

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1 hour ago, Just_A_Guy said:

That said:  I think it’s fair to point out that for a lot of the supporters, this is less about Trump (or even purported election fraud) than about the dawning realization that the country and values they learned about in high school civics doesn’t exist anymore (if ever it did).  The last few years have illustrated the obvious hollowing out of a number of previously-trusted American institutions—not just the press and academia but the courts, DOJ, FBI, corporate America, and even increasingly the military.  Take a look at the Twitter thread that’s been copied and pasted here.  

This^^^
I read 80% of the link you provided. Enough to go... yep, that is me. Disgusted and saddened by the direction of our country and the crumbling of it's once(?) respected institutions. Top it off with a heaping load of Big Tech and Govt. censorship = double sucks.

I laugh when I hear folks narrowly minded talk about Trump as if he is the leader of the America First movement, he is not. 

I'm also fine when I hear that people dislike Trump, because again, this is not about Trump. Trump for me was  simply the best option we had in 2020 to avoid the steaming mess of a country we have right now. Was he perfect, no. Simply the better of the two options. 

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1 hour ago, LDSGator said:

I have not read that one-thanks for the recommend my friend. Jeez dude, you answer these posts faster than FB messages 😉 
 

“Unsinkable” by Daniel Butler is also a good one. 

 

1 hour ago, LDSGator said:

And I can’t wait until the Titanic:  Honor and Glory game comes out! Their videos on Youtube are spectacular. 
 

 

Butler struck me as mostly re-writing Walter Lord’s A Night to Remember, with a bit of armchair psychoanalysis brought into the mix (I believe he’s the source of the “catatonic-Captain-Smith” theory).

And yes, THG looks amazing; though I think they bit off more than they could chew with some of the features and wound up overpromising, which in turn alienated their donors.  The team seems much more focused now, so I hope they finally get it done.  But along the way they’ve released some very nice content; Matt DeWinkler’s “Titanic University” series is great.

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12 hours ago, Just_A_Guy said:

That said:  I think it’s fair to point out that for a lot of the supporters, this is less about Trump (or even purported election fraud) than about the dawning realization that the country and values they learned about in high school civics doesn’t exist anymore (if ever it did).  The last few years have illustrated the obvious hollowing out of a number of previously-trusted American institutions—not just the press and academia but the courts, DOJ, FBI, corporate America, and even increasingly the military.  Take a look at the Twitter thread that’s been copied and pasted here

Indeed I still remember when Trump won the election against Hilary.. and the utter shock that many had (even here) that Trump could have enough followers to win.  While any cult of personality (And every politician is at the head of one) will have its die hard followers.. To win elections you have to tap in to something more.  Trump tapped into the wellspring you described and those people saw their lack of trust verified by how the major tech and media tried to silence Trump.  Biden tapped into the "He is not Trump" wellspring. 

That wellspring (that produced Trump as a viable candidate) is still there, being feed a daily diet of so called 'fact checking,' suppression, and lack of any real critical thinking toward the current administration in the media.  This means that Trump 2.0 is still very much a possibility.   Because until you treat the disease, the symptoms will keep returning

 

Edited by estradling75
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  • 2 weeks later...
On 7/15/2021 at 9:44 PM, NeedleinA said:

Today Arizona had a preliminary hearing where they shared that the audit on Maricopa County alone had issues with 74k votes.

Today, both official Arizona audit Twitter accounts have been suspended. 
Suppose if you can ban a ex President, an election audit is nothing more than a minor speed bump to sweep under the rug. 
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I honestly do not believe that there has been an honest election in my lifetime (75 years).  The argument that there is not enough illegal votes to sway the election is about the most damning political argument about elections I have ever heard.  But I am becoming as concerned over the rhetoric.  It seems that there is more desire to divide our country than to unite us.  I think we are moving more towards burning down whatever is left and starting over with something new than fixing the real problem - which I believe to be the refusal to follow the rule of law when it does not result in what we think we want.

 

The Traveler

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A little more info: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/sarahmimms/twitter-suspends-audit-accounts-trump

I'm guessing Twitter's excuse may have been that these accounts tweeted photos of posts instead of actual posts, as a way to get around Twitter's AI.

When did life become a chapter out of the book Neuromancer?

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15 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

Buzzfeed article immediately starts off with:

Quote

Twitter has permanently suspended eight accounts that spread former president Donald Trump’s lies about the 2020 election...

I stopped reading after that. Is any media/news outlet unbiased any longer?
I think journalism has gone the way of the dinosaur at this point, extinct. All we are left with now is opinion pieces disguised as news.

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1 hour ago, NeedleinA said:

....

I stopped reading after that. Is any media/news outlet unbiased any longer?
I think journalism has gone the way of the dinosaur at this point, extinct. All we are left with now is opinion pieces disguised as news.

I do not believe that anything can be described without a bias.   There is no such thing as news or history without a bias.  In my mind the problem is not that there is bias in news or history - the problem is the attempt to cover up any and all bias.  The most evil of opinions are the opinions that do not understand their bias or deliberately lie about it.  If my personal bias is not obvious - I will be glad to state it clearly.

 

The Traveler

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8 minutes ago, Traveler said:

I do not believe that anything can be described without a bias.   There is no such thing as news or history without a bias.  In my mind the problem is not that there is bias in news or history - the problem is the attempt to cover up any and all bias.  The most evil of opinions are the opinions that do not understand their bias or deliberately lie about it.  If my personal bias is not obvious - I will be glad to state it clearly.

 

The Traveler

Right. Also, everyone “dislikes bias” until they find a news source biased towards their side. That it’s “fair and objective.” 

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