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2 hours ago, Emmanuel Goldstein said:

The only problem I see is the Vaccine will not happen, because they have never created a vaccine for a Covid virus. This is like trying to create a cold vaccine.

Just like they never split the atom until they split the atom.

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A similar sentiment could be seen towards polio in the early to mid twentieth century.  There was a great amount of fear among people regarding their children and polio.  It had spurts and waves where it would come and go, but it was a DEADLY disease.  There were many children and adults that survived it, but the scars it left in it's wake were real and horrible.

Then came the vaccine.  The first vaccine actually had some terrible problems (some kids got polio from the vaccine itself...I think they accidentally used a live virus or something like that).  However, the second go around came and most children were forced to take it (via sugar cube). 

This meant that there was no need to "flatten the curve."  It didn't mean you were destined to get it or that you were going to get it.  Once the vaccine was out, and once we all got the vaccine...we never had to worry about polio or going to the hospital or suffering from it.  IN fact, BECAUSE of the vaccine, today, millions of people not only never got  polio, they never had to worry about getting it in the first place.

When a vaccine comes, it isn't about flattening a curve or that everyone will get it.  That's dumb.  A vaccine is made to prevent people from developing the full scale symptoms of the disease.  If a vaccine comes fast enough, it means that there will be those who never get the disease and never have to worry about getting it (hopefully).

This is why the vaccine is so important. 

There was no polio vaccine before it finally came out.  When it finally was created, it saved thousands (probably more) of lives.

An item similar to covid, but that mutates far more often and thus is harder to make a vaccine for is the flu virus.  Once seen as far more elusive than even the cold virus, efforts were put into finding a vaccine because it was far deadlier than most colds (deadliness and other factors go into determining where money and time goes in researching vaccines, and frankly, colds are not as deadly as many other diseases).  They found a way to make vaccines (though, because of how fast it mutates, and how many strains there are, it is difficult to make a vaccine for every strain, so they try to predict which strains will be prevalent in the upcoming year and make vaccines for those).  Now that they know how to make the flu vaccine, making a new vaccine (for a new strain) is a matter of weeks to months rather than years or decades.  They literally can make vaccines extremely quickly.

Other viruses mutate even more quickly than the Flu (HIV comes to mind, as soon as they get a treatment, it seems it mutates to negate that treatment.  I know that for medical staff they actually have a way to prevent it with around a 50/50 chance from what I hear, if that individual is treated within an hour of possible infection).

COVID on the otherhand does NOT mutate as quickly as most other viruses.  In fact, this current strain is still within the confines of it's strain (though there are different variants of it).  While a Flu virus would have mutated into several strains at this point, Covid-19 has largely stayed intact.  This is because Coronaviruses do not mutate that quickly.  This makes finding a vaccine easier.

In addition, the vaccines coming out today were not created in as short a time as some of the press would have you believe.  Many were started years ago.  This COVID-19 is actually also known as SARS2.  This should sound familiar because a few years ago another virus that was called SARS came out.  It was far more deadly and because it was more deadly, it killed the host far more quickly.  With many of the obstacles put into place to stop it's spread (many of these obstacles were done away with under Trump interestingly enough, which could indicate we may have had an epidemic of the same scale we have today if Trump had been in charge back then), and the speed with which it killed it's host, it did not spread that far or that quickly.  Still, it created alarm in the medical community and research was started to try to find ways to treat or to vaccinate against it, especially as it has always been simmering in the background with the threat to rise again.  It is THIS research that had already progressed along in the creation of Coronavirus vaccines that is being utilized today.  With it, is a simulated agent which creates the forms of the Virus, but without using the virus itself.  This can be recreated via RNA structuring or other methods created in their research for the original SARS virus.  As this strain is very similar, the research (just like with the flu virus and it's strains) is easily adaptable and thus converted.  With the urgency (and now time and money, more time and money is being spent on research on this vaccine than many realize, what has been done thus far would equate to normally decades of time and money, spent in a short time while putting on hold most other projects) to find a vaccine, it has been progressing at a massive amount of speed.

The biggest question I think for those of us who know about it, is whether this will be like the first Polio vaccine or not (the first vaccine was deadly to many).  That said, I still plan on getting the vaccine if/or when it comes out (and there is no guarantee that we will have a vaccine, there are those that show promise, but none that have been produced as viable yet until the research is completed).

Edited by JohnsonJones

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8 minutes ago, Traveler said:

@JohnsonJones - Before I will even think about getting a vaccine for COVID-18 -- I want to know, for certain, if I have already had it or not!

 

The Traveler

I agree!  That would be REALLY REALLY nice to know.

 

PS: I meant, for me also to know if I had it as well...not just you.

Edited by JohnsonJones

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On 7/31/2020 at 12:15 PM, Jamie123 said:

Just like they never split the atom until they split the atom.

What I'm saying is, don't hold your breath for a vaccine that works well. Vaccines can take up to ten years before they are ready, and there is nothing to suggest they will succeed with this one either.

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On 8/2/2020 at 7:40 PM, JohnsonJones said:

I agree!  That would be REALLY REALLY nice to know.

 

PS: I meant, for me also to know if I had it as well...not just you.

The Red Cross (at least in my area) is testing all donation samples for the antibodies. @Traveler

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14 hours ago, seashmore said:

The Red Cross (at least in my area) is testing all donation samples for the antibodies. @Traveler

Because of a blood condition I was born with, I cannot donate blood.   It works just fine for me but not anyone else.   😠 

 

The Traveler

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On 8/3/2020 at 9:10 AM, Emmanuel Goldstein said:

What I'm saying is, don't hold your breath for a vaccine that works well. Vaccines can take up to ten years before they are ready, and there is nothing to suggest they will succeed with this one either.

Well, there have been 45 things to suggest the Moderna mRNA-1273 vaccine might succeed, with another 600 more things in the works since June, and still another 30,000 possible things to that got started in August.  (I'm one of the 30,000 things.)

Consider, though, this future scenario: Covid keeps humming along worldwide until a vaccine is deployed worldwide, then it disappears in areas where vaccines are used.  In such a scenario, I still expect to find plenty of people claiming the vaccine doesn't work.  Because you can find plenty of people claiming the polio vaccine doesn't work.

Graphical proof that vaccines work (with sources) | by Isabella B ...

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I had to be tested this week because I needed hernia surgery.  The test left a strange taste and feeling in my nose for about 10 minutes.  I assume I did not have COVID-19 since the surgery was not canceled.  My wife was also tested because she had surgery on her foot last week - she did not have it either.  For the first time in all this we are confined to home - mostly because we are the walking wounded.   Sadly we are not doing any service and I have stopped work on a deck in the back yard.  The deck thing has been an odd project because there is a shortage of building supplies and the supplies of treated wood have been green - which means they are selling out before it is properly dried.  

Things I do not believe about COVID-19.  I do not believe we need to wear a mask outside on a hot sunny day.  A while back I was at Home Depot and got a cart from the parking lot.  A lady asked why I did not get a disinfected cart from inside.  I responded that the hot direct sun does a much more through job of it - I thought it funny when she thought for a moment and then went to the parking lot for a cart.  I saw Biden wearing a mask ridding a bicycle.  A reporter made note of it that Biden was "vigorously" exercising.  Please - wearing a mask and vigorously working out are two things that do not go together.  A 4 year old watching Sesame Street could figure that out.

I am not sure a mask does all that much especially outdoors but I am not afraid to wear one inside of public places.  However, I am convinced that wearing a mask under one's nose is a sure sign of an idiot that is incapable of making a decision for them self.  I am not sure who is facing the greater mental problems - the homeless on drugs or those that think it is a good idea to put them in hotels and give them their drugs to save them from COVID-19.  And last but not least - does anyone still believe that if unchecked in the USA - millions would die from COVID?  World wide we do not have a million deaths.   As a side note - last season the flu had the worse impact on children than it has in decades (according to the CDC) and not a single educator cares because they are more worried that they will get COVID if kids go back to school.

I have almost been convinced that Trump could not have done a worse job of it - until I have heard what his critics would have done and have planned.

 

The Traveler

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Wanna hear something nuts. A friend of mine went to get tested for Covid. Filled all the paper work out and waited for his turn in an obscenely long kind. He eventually lost his patience and left.

A week later he got a call from the testing center saying he tested positive for Covid.

ill tell ya, these new testing kits are impressive

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16 hours ago, Fether said:

Wanna hear something nuts. A friend of mine went to get tested for Covid. Filled all the paper work out and waited for his turn in an obscenely long kind. He eventually lost his patience and left.

A week later he got a call from the testing center saying he tested positive for Covid.

ill tell ya, these new testing kits are impressive

I am wondering if this is a urban legend.  I have heard this same story from several sources.  When I was tested - to get the results required that I follow up with a login to my personal information to get the data from my personal medical online file - which I hate because I want to ask questions - especially when it concerns me.  When I went in for surgery they had the results but would not tell me directly what the result was because the law requires such information only be passed directly between me and my doctor.  (obviously I was not positive or they would not perform the surgery - but they would not answer me when I asked directly)   I asked why all the secrecy they said that because of Hipaa - personal health care information cannot be given out without positive identification - which cannot, by law, be done by phone. 

Bureaucracies may be very good at screwing up a lot of things - but they are expert at making many of the simple things of life extremely difficult and off the charts illogical.  Or as you would say - nuts.

 

The Traveler

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26 minutes ago, Traveler said:

I am wondering if this is a urban legend.  I have heard this same story from several sources.  When I was tested - to get the results required that I follow up with a login to my personal information to get the data from my personal medical online file - which I hate because I want to ask questions - especially when it concerns me.  When I went in for surgery they had the results but would not tell me directly what the result was because the law requires such information only be passed directly between me and my doctor.  (obviously I was not positive or they would not perform the surgery - but they would not answer me when I asked directly)   I asked why all the secrecy they said that because of Hipaa - personal health care information cannot be given out without positive identification - which cannot, by law, be done by phone. 

Bureaucracies may be very good at screwing up a lot of things - but they are expert at making many of the simple things of life extremely difficult and off the charts illogical.  Or as you would say - nuts.

 

The Traveler

I was tested a few months ago and received a call letting me know I tested negative. Phone calls are (Or were at least) the standard practice. And it could be that my friend was lying, but I have no reason to believe that he was lying.

if hospitals are really getting funding when they have more covid patients, I would not be surprised if there were some fabricated cases

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4 hours ago, Fether said:

I was tested a few months ago and received a call letting me know I tested negative. Phone calls are (Or were at least) the standard practice. And it could be that my friend was lying, but I have no reason to believe that he was lying.

if hospitals are really getting funding when they have more covid patients, I would not be surprised if there were some fabricated cases

Pneumonia deaths are a prime indicator of other illnesses.  With the nasal test (not necessarily the blood tests) it is actually a combination where they can also see if it is COVID or actually a flu or cold that someone is suffering from.  There is a direct correlation between Pneumonia and COVID, flu, and colds.  Thus, even if someone is hiding or masking (over reporting or under reporting) deaths normally are hard to hide.

What they are seeing currently is that COVID deaths are most likely being under reported.  Flu caused pneumonia is way down (as I said, they can actually see WHAT caused the pneumonia from nasal tests, and there are direct correlations between pneumonia deaths and these types of illnesses)...but Pneumonia deaths are extremely high this year.

For some reason, they either are not testing or do not want to report what caused the Pneumonia, though in many cases Pneumonia is not a singular symptom and is caused by something else (so COVID or flu don't actually kill the individual, the pneumonia does, but the Pneumonia is caused by the flu or other disease).  With the number of Pneumonia deaths being so high, indications are that something out there is causing a great number of Pneumonia deaths.  Correlation numbers are checked and seen by scientists and data between flu, colds, and now COVID.

This actually indicates that the number of cases of COVID are actually being far under reported than over reported. 

It could be that hospitals are over reporting COVID, but indications from the number and causes of deaths reported are that they are, in fact, under reporting the cases (especially in states with a HIGH anti-science and greater denial factor going on, though it is also occurring in states which tend to focus on science.  I believe Utah tends to be a state which puts science above fantasy...but there are other states out there that are trying to do other things).

This is how they've seen approximately how many deaths occurred during other epidemics in the past...normally after the fact. They can see how many actually died from Pneumonia and the correlation between it and other diseases, and from that can extrapolate the actual numbers.  Science is a pretty awesome thing.

Unfortunately, there is a MASSIVELY HUGE amount of anti-science individuals and movements in the United States these days (why, I don't know, but for some reason the US has this massive segment of it's population which hates or wants to deny science).  This means it doesn't matter HOW MUCH scientific evidence there may be regarding something, they'll still deny it...

Edited by JohnsonJones

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1 minute ago, JohnsonJones said:

Pneumonia deaths are a prime indicator of other illnesses.  With the nasal test (not necessarily the blood tests) it is actually a combination where they can also see if it is COVID or actually a flu or cold that someone is suffering from.  There is a direct correlation between Pneumonia and COVID, flu, and colds.  Thus, even if someone is hiding or masking (over reporting or under reporting) deaths normally are hard to hide.

What they are seeing currently is that COVID deaths are most likely being under reported.  Flu caused pneumonia is way down (as I said, they can actually see WHAT caused the pneumonia from nasal tests, and there are direct correlations between pneumonia deaths and these types of illnesses)...but Pneumonia deaths are extremely high this year.

This actually indicates that the number of cases of COVID are actually being far under reported than over reported. 

It could be that hospitals are over reporting COVID, but indications from the number and causes of deaths reported are that they are, in fact, under reporting the cases (especially in states with a HIGH anti-science and greater denial factor going on, though it is also occurring in states which tend to focus on science.  I believe Utah tends to be a state which puts science above fantasy...but there are other states out there that are trying to do other things).

This is how they've seen approximately how many deaths occurred during other epidemics in the past...normally after the fact. They can see how many actually died from Pneumonia and the correlation between it and other diseases, and from that can extrapolate the actual numbers.  Science is a pretty awesome thing.

Unfortunately, there is a MASSIVELY HUGE amount of anti-science individuals and movements in the United States these days (why, I don't know, but for some reason the US has this massive segment of it's population which hates or wants to deny science).  This means it doesn't matter HOW MUCH scientific evidence there may be regarding something, they'll still deny it...

I wasn’t trying to engage in an under or over report debate, Only sharing a ridiculous bit of info I came across...but since we are here, there are “scientists” on both sides of the debate.

Andmy opinion on this whole Covid hullabaloo is based purely on my personal experience, COVID has had 0 effect in my life besides forced changes by the government. I gave a blessing to a father the other day whose entire household had Covid. Neither me nor the other brother that blessed with me got sick.

In my area there are 300,000 people and currently only 6 hospitalized for Covid. This portion of the state has done next to nothing to prevent the “spread” I went to a missionary homecoming a couple weeks ago and there were 2-350 people in the chapel and only a handful had masks. Stores were closed for a week but after that everything was back to normal.

Additionally, I work in a call center and we are currently focusing our effort in CA and NJ. We talk to hundreds of people every day across those states. I have spoken to 4 people who had relatives who died. Also had a neighbor and a distant cousin die. Every one of them were 85+ years old.

That is my experience. 

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I got my second vaccine study shot last week.  I'm excited to be part of what is looking to be the first worldwide rollout of an RNA vaccine.  

Also, my cell signal keeps improving.

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1 minute ago, NeuroTypical said:

I got my second vaccine study shot last week.  I'm excited to be part of what is looking to be the first worldwide rollout of an RNA vaccine.  

Also, my cell signal keeps improving.

I think the two are related. I need my hat. Where's the tinfoil?

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13 hours ago, Fether said:

I wasn’t trying to engage in an under or over report debate, Only sharing a ridiculous bit of info I came across...but since we are here, there are “scientists” on both sides of the debate.

Andmy opinion on this whole Covid hullabaloo is based purely on my personal experience, COVID has had 0 effect in my life besides forced changes by the government. I gave a blessing to a father the other day whose entire household had Covid. Neither me nor the other brother that blessed with me got sick.

In my area there are 300,000 people and currently only 6 hospitalized for Covid. This portion of the state has done next to nothing to prevent the “spread” I went to a missionary homecoming a couple weeks ago and there were 2-350 people in the chapel and only a handful had masks. Stores were closed for a week but after that everything was back to normal.

Additionally, I work in a call center and we are currently focusing our effort in CA and NJ. We talk to hundreds of people every day across those states. I have spoken to 4 people who had relatives who died. Also had a neighbor and a distant cousin die. Every one of them were 85+ years old.

That is my experience. 

Most of the infection rates in Utah tend to be in the urban areas rather than the rural areas.

If one was religious (not that people here are...😋) one could hypothesize that the Lord is blessing the Saints by not having mortality rates be as extensive in Utah as elsewhere (though they still have slightly lower than a 1% death rate currently from those who are detected as infected compared to deaths).

South Central (if that's where you are) tends to have a higher membership ratio than more impacted areas of Utah (Excluding Utah county of course)...once again, if one is religious and feel the Lord has anything to do with protecting the Saints...at least currently (who knows, that second wave may come hard...we know in prior epidemics with the flu...and COVID is no flu...that the second wave is normally worse than the first wave.  One reason to hope that a vaccine is made widely available soon, if we can get that out before a second wave...it may never come to fruition...if we are lucky).

Only certain counties in Southern Utah are really feeling any impact at all in regards to infections and deaths...at least currently.  In Northern Utah it appears from a quick search that SLC and Provo areas are the hardest hit.  Over half the deaths are in Salt Lake City for Utah.

I am considering whether to go to Southern Utah soon, I have been invited by a friend to come visit at the beginning of October.  Not sure yet.  It would be in Southern Utah, but I'd have to stay in a Hotel.  Infection rates in the area seem extremely low, so not  too risky, but not sure how clean the hotels would be (probably would be in a Marriott or one of it's brands).  Riskiest part would (as long as infection rates stay as they are) probably be the travel to get there.

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On 7/24/2020 at 12:47 AM, Traveler said:

 In short the possibility that COVID will mutate and need a new vaccine each season.  But these seasonal vaccines are a crapshoot effort to guess what is coming and not what actually ends up evolving.

Actually, it may not be that bad.

According to what news articles are saying about this particular vaccine, it is a more broad based anti-body.  It is similar to how milkmaids who had cowpox became immune to smallpox.  Not the same virus, but similar enough that the antibodies worked.  So, even as the virus mutates, it will have to mutate a LOT before the vaccine becomes ineffective.

BUT!!  In those same articles, it did NOT address the fact that so far those with antibodies from having had the disease appear to not have the antibodies in their bodies after several months.  So, I'm not sure if that is true.  But that is what has been said by some parties.  If so, will we need another dose every 6 months?  Idunno.

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7 minutes ago, Carborendum said:

BUT!!  In those same articles, it did NOT address the fact that so far those with antibodies from having had the disease appear to not have the antibodies in their bodies after several months.  So, I'm not sure if that is true.  But that is what has been said by some parties.  If so, will we need another dose every 6 months?  Idunno.

As mentioned on a thread a while ago, I had COVID19 in July and early August.  So did my wife and kids.

The Red Cross was and is looking for people to donate plasma who have recovered from COVID19.  We were told that they are looking for people who have recovered in the past 2 1/2 months because COVID antibodies drop off significantly after that.  I would assume that would mean that they don't drop off completely, but according to them at least (and I can't think of any reason why they woundn't be telling the truth or wouldn't be knowlegable on the subject) they drop off significantly after 2 1/2 months.
 

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3 minutes ago, Scott said:

As mentioned on a thread a while ago, I had COVID19 in July and early August.  So did my wife and kids.

The Red Cross was and is looking for people to donate plasma who have recovered from COVID19.  We were told that they are looking for people who have recovered in the past 2 1/2 months because COVID antibodies drop off significantly after that.  I would assume that would mean that they don't drop off completely, but according to them at least (and I can't think of any reason why they woundn't be telling the truth or wouldn't be knowlegable on the subject) they drop off significantly after 2 1/2 months.
 

In the hopes that your conversation included the following information, I have to ask:

When you say,"They don't drop off completely."  I'm wondering if this means that you have enough to keep fighting the disease, but not enough to help others through your plasma donation?

Any details?

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7 minutes ago, Carborendum said:

Actually, it may not be that bad.

According to what news articles are saying about this particular vaccine, it is a more broad based anti-body.  It is similar to how milkmaids who had cowpox became immune to smallpox.  Not the same virus, but similar enough that the antibodies worked.  So, even as the virus mutates, it will have to mutate a LOT before the vaccine becomes ineffective.

BUT!!  In those same articles, it did NOT address the fact that so far those with antibodies from having had the disease appear to not have the antibodies in their bodies after several months.  So, I'm not sure if that is true.  But that is what has been said by some parties.  If so, will we need another dose every 6 months?  Idunno.

This discussion is referencing a post I made almost 2 months ago.  More recently I posted on COVID updates in the current events forum.  There I referenced that there are individuals that have been admitted to hospitals multiple times for COVID.  This can be documented by Googling "COVID reinfections".  What this means is that the most vulnerable will not be protected with a vaccine.  We already know that this malady is not worth worrying about for the less vulnerable.   They do not need a vaccine.  The cost is not worth the threat if this only protects the less vulnerable.

I will make a prediction - If Trump is reelected the COVID vaccine will be covered by the media as ineffective.  If Trump is not reelected COVID will disappear and that those that could be infected being treated or dying will not be covered and if referenced they will be suffering other problems.  We will return to normal.

 

The Traveler

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On 7/31/2020 at 10:48 AM, Emmanuel Goldstein said:

The only problem I see is the Vaccine will not happen, because they have never created a vaccine for a Covid virus. This is like trying to create a cold vaccine.

Not really.  Remember that "The Cold" is not a single virus or even virus type.  It is any virus that causes certain symptoms.  Thus, the viruses can vary tremendously.

A cold virus has never been made because:

  • There are millions of completely different viruses (is that the plural?) within over 200 different strains.  We can't make vaccines for millions of unique viruses. 
  • The mortality rate is sufficiently small that we as a society have decided that it is "acceptable."
  • Therefore, we really haven't tried to go down that route.  It simply isn't worth it to do the R&D for 200 different strains of a fairly innocuous disease.

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