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Mrs. Traveler and I spent a few days on a road trip through national and state parks of southern Utah.  It was great!!!!  When we visited Zion National Park it was crowded big time.  The wife recently had foot surgery and was limited in her hiking abilities so we did not do any extreme hiking but the paths in Zion's park were full of people - very few wore a mask or socially distanced.   And yet new cases of COVID in southern Utah are basically none.  I talked with one young lady that was recently in the Philippines and Hawaii - both struggling with COVID.  I am thinking that the hot dry air of southern Utah outdoors prohibits the spread.  

Utah is currently having a problem with COVID.  But mostly in Salt Lake and Utah counties.  The students of BYU and UVU appear to be a big problem for the state - along with an organization called "Young/Dumb".

 

The Traveler

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Guest Scott
9 hours ago, Traveler said:

Utah is currently having a problem with COVID.  But mostly in Salt Lake and Utah counties.  The students of BYU and UVU appear to be a big problem for the state - along with an organization called "Young/Dumb".

Looking it up, Washington County (where Zion NP is located) has about 5% of the population of Utah, but 20% of the COVID cases and deaths.

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I think about what COVID means to me.

Personally, my family was already 80% reclusive before the pandemic, other than working from home, wearing masks, and not going to movies, little has changed.  Both kids are in school.  I've had two shots of the vaccine - part of the Moderna phase 3 trial.  My cousin's wife survived COVID, with some permanent lung damage that'll be with her for life.  My boss' kid managed to shut down her entire elementary school class because she sneezed in the classroom, now they're all in the 2nd week of self-quarantining.  Other than that, I don't have any personal stories.

My county is doing well.  At the start of this thing, my county led Colorado, and Colorado was one of the fastest growing.  Now, we get around 30-40 new cases daily, with few deaths. 165 deaths total.

My state is doing ok.  3-400 new cases daily, still few deaths.   CO hasn't hit 2k dead yet - the number seems in no hurry to reach that milestone.  Comfortable 3% hospital bed use.

The country is coming down off the 2nd wave.  Somewhere between 700-1000 dying every day it's like an extra flu in the country.  I'm guessing cold weather and return to school will kick off the third wave - I bet we're going back up in 2 weeks.  

Image

 

My planet continues to grapple with the global pandemic.  Somewhere between 200k-500k new cases per day, somewhere between 4-8000 deaths per day.  This thing won't kill us, but it is absolutely a noticable blip on the human's usual death rate.  Everyone's got a chart, everyone's got an opinion, I'm not sure if we'll know how bad this was/is, for another year or more.  Some charts look like this, which tell a story of how bad it is:

Data Snapshots: U.S. Influenza and Pneumonia Deaths 2013–2020 - ACEP Now

Some charts look like this, and tell a story about how it's relatively not very bad at all:

coronavirus Correcting Recent U.S. Weekly Death Statistics for Incomplete  Reporting | Watts Up With That?

 

 

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18 hours ago, Scott said:

Looking it up, Washington County (where Zion NP is located) has about 5% of the population of Utah, but 20% of the COVID cases and deaths.

I attempted to display the data from the official Utah website - https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/    If you go to the site and look at the regions of Utah it shows that currently the Southwest area (where Zion is) it is currently (yesterday) at about 9 new cases per 100,000.  Salt Lake county is currently at about 24 new cases per 100,000 and Utah county is at about 49 new per 100,000.   Utah county yesterday had over 5 times the infections per 100,000 residents - Salt Lake county was only 2 and 2/3 times as many infections per 100,000 as southwest Utah.

The death rate in Southwest Utah ought to be higher because that is primarily retirement communities - which means old people that are highly susceptible to COVID.  The young dumb population should lower the death rate considerably.  They are not likely to die from infection and if they keep it up we should have heard immunity in about 100 days - before the vaccine is available to all segments of the population.

 

The Traveler

Edited by Traveler

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I did not watch it personally, only read the news stories, but for once, I am in agreement with Trump if the New Stories are correct.  Trump disagreed with the CDC director when the CDC director said that masks would be more effective than a vaccine.  Trump said the vaccine would be more effective.

NOW, if enough take the Vaccine, it will be far more effective than wearing masks in my opinion.  You give it to all the kids and college students, even at 80% effectiveness, that achieves herd immunity among them.  Right now I see the young as the primary infection vectors. 

Of course, if everyone refuses to take it, or schools do not force students to have it, then obviously the vaccine will not be as effective, but hopefully there will be enough to take it to have it as effective for society.

Trump proposes that he will have 100 million doses by  the years end.  I don't know if that will come about or not.  The CDC director thinks it may be the second or third quarter next year before the vaccine is widely available.  I HOPE that Trump's statement of how many doses of the vaccine are available WILL be available.

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Guest Scott
4 hours ago, Traveler said:

I attempted to display the data from the official Utah website - https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/    If you go to the site and look at the regions of Utah it shows that currently the Southwest area (where Zion is) it is currently (yesterday) at about 9 new cases per 100,000.  Salt Lake county is currently at about 24 new cases per 100,000 and Utah county is at about 49 new per 100,000.   Utah county yesterday had over 5 times the infections per 100,000 residents - Salt Lake county was only 2 and 2/3 times as many infections per 100,000 as southwest Utah.

True, but the SW region on that map covers a huge area and the vast majority of those cases are concentrated in Washington County, where Zion National Park is located.

https://swuhealth.org/covid/

Washington County has 17 cases per 100,000, which isn't that much lower than Salt Lake.

Most of SW Utah outside Washington County has very few cases, thus the lower numbers for SW Utah as a whole.

The death rate in Southwest Utah ought to be higher because that is primarily retirement communities - which means old people that are highly susceptible to COVID.

People do retire there, but still only a minority of the population is retirees.

The median age in Washington County is 36, roughly equal to the median age for the nation.

By Utah standards though, that's pretty old for a median.

 

20200917_183854.jpg

Edited by Scott

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I'm sure this will shock some of you but thought I would let you all know, that yesterday I volunteered for the vaccine trials for Covid-19, held up in the Ogden Utah area. The vaccine is one that was created in Russia.
I received my first shot yesterday at 4:00 pm, and I wanted to let you all know that it’s completely safe, with иo side effects whatsoeveя, and that I feelshκι χoρoshό я чувствую себя немного странно и я думаю, что вытащил ослин.
Edited by mirkwood

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45 minutes ago, mirkwood said:
I'm sure this will shock some of you but thought I would let you all know, that yesterday I volunteered for the vaccine trials for Covid-19, held up in the Ogden Utah area. The vaccine is one that was created in Russia.
I received my first shot yesterday at 4:00 pm, and I wanted to let you all know that it’s completely safe, with иo side effects whatsoeveя, and that I feelshκι χoρoshό я чувствую себя немного странно и я думаю, что вытащил ослин.

A good ole greasy cheeseburger, MAGA hat, and apple pie should counter act any side effects

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I was traveling last weekend to Indiana.   I met with a young lady that has been working as a nurse on the COVID front lines in Indianapolis.   For the last 6 months she has been caring for COVID-19 patients.   I took the opportunity to gather information - especially since I do not trust the news outlets.  A couple of pieces of information startled me.  Although I had heard hints it was very interesting to hear from a source.  I am not going to provide information from a scientific study - just some observations from one in the health care industry.  

One piece of information that startled me was that she claimed that numerous COVID patients had been hospitalized multiple times (meaning recovered, discharged and reinfected).  Not a few have been infected more than twice.  Obviously this means that a vaccine will not provide immunity to those most at risk.  I did a Google search and discovered the COVID-19 reinfections have been recorded world wide.   This means everybody in the medical science community knows a vaccine will not end the pandemic - contrary to what our politicians (both parties) are telling us - especially those that brag about their following the science.  

This young lady also claimed that about 75% of those hospitalized with COVID-19 are Hispanic or Black.  I have heard that COVID has a racists side.  I asked if this nurse had an opinion as to why.  It was her observation that in almost all cases these minorities had diabetes and were greatly overweight. My wife is type 1 diabetic so I have some first hand experience.  Diabetes must be self managed - the health care professionals can help but one must self manage diabetes.   We concluded that Hispanics have a language barrier and thus manage diabetes poorly.  The Blacks - although English is their first language seem to lack the skills to manage.  

Most of the other 25% are elderly with multiple complications.  My nurse friend indicated that this is mostly what is seen at her hospital and basically covers those needing care and those that die from COVID.  I asked about exceptions - we all hear of exceptions to what I have listed.  She responded that they are exceptions that are rare but do exist.

Lastly - this young lady was a bleeding liberal (Democrat) but has found herself at odds with her political party.  But she believes that if Biden is elected the whole COVID-19 pandemic will fade away and disappear.    And that if Trump is elected again he will be blamed for all the lies and misdirection.

 

The Traveler

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Update before I am gone for a little while.  I don't think the election is going to change the state of the world or how the world views the pandemic...BUT...

Pfizer just submitted a vaccine candidate to the FDA for approval.  I think they are also gearing up manufacturing of the vaccine right now.

All it takes now is the FDA to rubber stamp it.  We could have it, not just before the election, but within the next few weeks.  Maybe not 100 million doses, or enough for everyone, but at least the vaccine coming out.

If it IS delayed, it's ALL on the FDA, and from what I've been hearing from the FDA recently in the news...

It COULD be that the Vaccine will be held up and "miraculously approved" depending on the election or results of the election.

PS:  Also, it looks like I may be absent from the forums for a little bit.  Incident at the university (mine is not the first class).  Students are supposed to wear masks, social distance, and not come to class if they are feeling symptoms or ill and get tested.  Unfortunately, it appears that we just had several students break these rules and then tested positive for Covid-19.  Not sure if they will test me and all the other students (they didn't before with the other classes, just sent people to isolation/quarantine and if they felt symptoms are supposed to get tested, though I think there is a 15 minute test open to students if they wish).  Stinks.  Got a room in our house where I'll isolate myself from the wife and the rest of the family and HOPE I don't have it, and that if I do staying in that room will be enough to keep them safe.

Edited by JohnsonJones

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7 minutes ago, JohnsonJones said:

Update before I am gone for a little while.  I don't think the election is going to change the state of the world or how the world views the pandemic...BUT...

Pfizer just submitted a vaccine candidate to the FDA for approval.  I think they are also gearing up manufacturing of the vaccine right now.

All it takes now is the FDA to rubber stamp it.  We could have it, not just before the election, but within the next few weeks.  Maybe not 100 million doses, or enough for everyone, but at least the vaccine coming out.

If it IS delayed, it's ALL on the FDA, and from what I've been hearing from the FDA recently in the news...

It COULD be that the Vaccine will be held up and "miraculously approved" depending on the election or results of the election.

PS:  Also, it looks like I may be absent from the forums for a little bit.  Incident at the university (mine is not the first class).  Students are supposed to wear masks, social distance, and not come to class if they are feeling symptoms or ill and get tested.  Unfortunately, it appears that we just had several students break these rules and then tested positive for Covid-19.  Not sure if they will test me and all the other students (they didn't before with the other classes, just sent people to isolation/quarantine and if they felt symptoms are supposed to get tested, though I think there is a 15 minute test open to students if they wish).  Stinks.  Got a room in our house where I'll isolate myself from the wife and the rest of the family and HOPE I don't have it, and that if I do staying in that room will be enough to keep them safe.

So sorry to hear that JJ!  

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1 minute ago, Jane_Doe said:

So sorry to hear that JJ!  

Thank you.

Still don't know all the procedures of what will happen, but they don't want me at the university the rest of this week (isolating from the school) and for about 2 weeks as long as I don't test positive or show symptoms, so I'll have to do all the classes from home.  I HOPE that I don't have it (or if I had it earlier in the year that I can't catch it again, or that I am immune to it...don't know).  Most help any can do is to pray I don't actually have it and pray for the students that they are either safe, or will recover rapidly.  I just know that Monday supposedly one of the students started to have symptoms and still came to school.  They went in for a test that evening and they got the results yesterday.  I was notified this morning, early.  I just hope students (and they probably are rejoicing that classes are cancelled today, at least my classes, until we get things set up for them to see me later this week via zoom on Friday) take it seriously. 

Had time to kill while everything is getting ready, so taking one last visit to the forums before I'm banished to my room (well, not exactly MY room, but a room we set apart for me to be in while I am isolating, it's actually our library so I'll have plenty of reading material in my spare time at least!).

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1 hour ago, JohnsonJones said:

Not sure if they will test me and all the other students (they didn't before with the other classes, just sent people to isolation/quarantine and if they felt symptoms are supposed to get tested, though I think there is a 15 minute test open to students if they wish).  Stinks.  Got a room in our house where I'll isolate myself from the wife and the rest of the family and HOPE I don't have it, and that if I do staying in that room will be enough to keep them safe.

 

My last week:
- Daughter got notified by her school, that he was in a college class with someone who tested positive.  The exposure was a week in the past.
- The 4 of us self-isolated.
- The next day (Friday), we loaded up in the car and we all got tested at one of the free testing sites.   Drive through style, never got out of the car.
- On Sunday, we got results back - all clear.
- Monday life went back to the new normal.

My suggestion, is don't wait to be told to test, go find a testing location that'll take you, and get tested.  That way you'll know whether you have something to worry about or not.

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1 hour ago, NeuroTypical said:

 

My last week:
- Daughter got notified by her school, that he was in a college class with someone who tested positive.  The exposure was a week in the past.
- The 4 of us self-isolated.
- The next day (Friday), we loaded up in the car and we all got tested at one of the free testing sites.   Drive through style, never got out of the car.
- On Sunday, we got results back - all clear.
- Monday life went back to the new normal.

My suggestion, is don't wait to be told to test, go find a testing location that'll take you, and get tested.  That way you'll know whether you have something to worry about or not.

Close to 80% of those that have COVID have a temperature of 100.4 degrees Fahrenheit or higher.   This includes those that have no other symptoms.   The % is much higher if someone has any (even single) symptom.  Taking everyone's temperature in public would reduce the risk of spreading COVID more than wearing a mask and social distancing and it is much more practical than testing everybody every couple of days or so of being out in public.  

 

The Traveler

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1 hour ago, Traveler said:

Close to 80% of those that have COVID have a temperature of 100.4 degrees Fahrenheit or higher.   This includes those that have no other symptoms.   

What's the source for this?  I wonder if they're talking about having a temperature at one point of the infection.  I wonder if folks are contagious only when temperature is present.

Quote

Taking everyone's temperature in public would reduce the risk of spreading COVID more than wearing a mask and social distancing and it is much more practical than testing everybody every couple of days or so of being out in public.  

Oh, I'm not holding my family's example out as something I want everyone to do.  Since we're 80% reclusive anyway, it wasn't that big a stretch.  We all got tested half to reduce our anxiety, and half to get past all the people pre-screening with their questions on exposure and whatnot.  We get our temperature taken maybe 3-5 times a week.

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16 hours ago, NeuroTypical said:

What's the source for this?  I wonder if they're talking about having a temperature at one point of the infection.  I wonder if folks are contagious only when temperature is present.

Oh, I'm not holding my family's example out as something I want everyone to do.  Since we're 80% reclusive anyway, it wasn't that big a stretch.  We all got tested half to reduce our anxiety, and half to get past all the people pre-screening with their questions on exposure and whatnot.  We get our temperature taken maybe 3-5 times a week.

My source was the CDC.  There are several documents published by the CDC and many articles that reference the CDC releases.  If you Google "COVIC temperature" you can find what you are looking for as a source.  I live an active lifestyle and love the outdoors.  It is a daily goal to bicycle 20 miles.  I also spend a lot of time at Home Depot for various home and investment property maintenance.  The wife and I fly on average twice a month to somewhere (she loves to travel - not me so much).    Since the beginning of COVID I have had my temperature taken just once outside of my home.  I have been tested once for COVID for a surgical procedure. 

Also following recommendations from the CDC - wearing a mask does not protect the person wearing the mask - it is mainly an act of courtesy to protect others from what you have.  Logically and following science - if one wants to protect themselves in public; they should wear a hazmat suit - a low end protection suit cost about $45 and a high end about $150.   But most people do not know how to decontaminate when removing a hazmat suit.

It is my personal opinion (based on information provided by the CDC) that wearing a mask and social distancing offers little protection for an individual.  I am going to make a wild guess (since I cannot find good information) that a mask and social distancing reduces one's chances of contracting COVID by less than 50%.  Again I believe the mask and social distancing thing is mostly political.  I do not understand why taking temperatures is not stressed and done more than a mask.  Wearing a mask below one's nose does nothing for anybody.

As for when someone is contagious - it appears to me that there is conflicting information.  I generally understand that someone is contagious when a virus is actively growing and that once the immune system kicks in to fight the virus - they are not contagious.  But the COVID information has been all over the map.  I cannot find accurate information (even directly from the CDC); it appears that your chances are better if you are infected with COVID than with other forms of flu, that no one seem to care that much about but the greatest risk with COVID is that it spreads more easily than other flus. 

If one Googles covid reinfections they will discover that there are reinfections but getting accurate information is a problem - but we are told not to panic.  Why?  Reinfections mean that a vaccine under such possibilities does not seem any more effective that wearing a mask - which we know does not stop COVID.  From all that I have gathered - if you are overweight, have diabetes and do not manage your diabetes (high A1C) it looks like regardless of any advances - you will eventually die of COVID - unless you die of something else first.  If you health is poor and your are about to die anyway - there is a good chance you will die of COVID first.  Otherwise, and all things considered - I really do not understand why we would shut down the rest of the country or economy.

 

The Traveler

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Quote

I received my first shot yesterday at 4:00 pm, and I wanted to let you all know that it’s completely safe, with иo side effects whatsoeveя, and that I feelshκι χoρoshό я чувствую себя немного странно и я думаю, что вытащил ослин.

@mirkwood

I'm not sure if you realize this, but that is real Russian.  They're not just Cyrilic letters. Those are actual Russian words.

But... donkey?

Edited by Carborendum

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3 hours ago, Carborendum said:

@mirkwood

I'm not sure if you realize this, but that is real Russian.  They're not just Cyrilic letters. Those are actual Russian words.

But... donkey?

I just copied it from FB.  Now I'm wondering if I should google translate it...

 

 

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2 minutes ago, mirkwood said:

I just copied it from FB.  Now I'm wondering if I should google translate it...

Here's what you'll get:

Quote

χoρoshό I feel a little strange and I think I pulled out a donkey.

χoρoshό doesn't translate because they misspelled it.  The "sh" should be a squarish "W" kind of shape.

It means "good" or "fine".  As in "how are you?"  "Fine."

I don't know if the person was trying to be funny with the donkey or if he misspelled that word too, but I just can't figure out what word he was trying to say.  I'm just beginning my Russian studies. If only @zil were here.

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Comparison between Obama/Biden response to H1N1 to Trump on COVID

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-obama-biden-virus-response-11597966209

It is important to remember that the early predictions said that if we're lucky, the best case scenario would be about 200,000 deaths by this fall.  Well, here we are at just a bit over, and we're seeing the death percentages going down.  Hospitalizations are down.   And yet the media still wants to spin this as a failure by Trump.

Yup, it's all his fault that we were very close to the "best case scenario."  Thank you, Mr. President.

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Small update on my situation, I've gotten to pick up some things at the school.  We are in class for a day, and then once again, have to go back home because more students are infected and didn't pay heed to what the university protocols are.

At this rate, they should have just left everyone at home.

Had a slight cough recently, but turned up negative...probably just allergies acting up.  Hoping everything stays healthy, thank you for your prayers thus far.  I'm needing all the prayers I can get at this point.  Wife also got a COVID test recently as she said she lost her sense of smell, but her test turned up negative.

I can only hope I stay healthy at this point because the students definitely don't seem to be taking any precautions (actually, that's too broad of a generalization, some are, but many are not).

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