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COVID update

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Mrs. Traveler and I spent a few days on a road trip through national and state parks of southern Utah.  It was great!!!!  When we visited Zion National Park it was crowded big time.  The wife recently had foot surgery and was limited in her hiking abilities so we did not do any extreme hiking but the paths in Zion's park were full of people - very few wore a mask or socially distanced.   And yet new cases of COVID in southern Utah are basically none.  I talked with one young lady that was recently in the Philippines and Hawaii - both struggling with COVID.  I am thinking that the hot dry air of southern Utah outdoors prohibits the spread.  

Utah is currently having a problem with COVID.  But mostly in Salt Lake and Utah counties.  The students of BYU and UVU appear to be a big problem for the state - along with an organization called "Young/Dumb".

 

The Traveler

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9 hours ago, Traveler said:

Utah is currently having a problem with COVID.  But mostly in Salt Lake and Utah counties.  The students of BYU and UVU appear to be a big problem for the state - along with an organization called "Young/Dumb".

Looking it up, Washington County (where Zion NP is located) has about 5% of the population of Utah, but 20% of the COVID cases and deaths.

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I think about what COVID means to me.

Personally, my family was already 80% reclusive before the pandemic, other than working from home, wearing masks, and not going to movies, little has changed.  Both kids are in school.  I've had two shots of the vaccine - part of the Moderna phase 3 trial.  My cousin's wife survived COVID, with some permanent lung damage that'll be with her for life.  My boss' kid managed to shut down her entire elementary school class because she sneezed in the classroom, now they're all in the 2nd week of self-quarantining.  Other than that, I don't have any personal stories.

My county is doing well.  At the start of this thing, my county led Colorado, and Colorado was one of the fastest growing.  Now, we get around 30-40 new cases daily, with few deaths. 165 deaths total.

My state is doing ok.  3-400 new cases daily, still few deaths.   CO hasn't hit 2k dead yet - the number seems in no hurry to reach that milestone.  Comfortable 3% hospital bed use.

The country is coming down off the 2nd wave.  Somewhere between 700-1000 dying every day it's like an extra flu in the country.  I'm guessing cold weather and return to school will kick off the third wave - I bet we're going back up in 2 weeks.  

Image

 

My planet continues to grapple with the global pandemic.  Somewhere between 200k-500k new cases per day, somewhere between 4-8000 deaths per day.  This thing won't kill us, but it is absolutely a noticable blip on the human's usual death rate.  Everyone's got a chart, everyone's got an opinion, I'm not sure if we'll know how bad this was/is, for another year or more.  Some charts look like this, which tell a story of how bad it is:

Data Snapshots: U.S. Influenza and Pneumonia Deaths 2013–2020 - ACEP Now

Some charts look like this, and tell a story about how it's relatively not very bad at all:

coronavirus Correcting Recent U.S. Weekly Death Statistics for Incomplete  Reporting | Watts Up With That?

 

 

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18 hours ago, Scott said:

Looking it up, Washington County (where Zion NP is located) has about 5% of the population of Utah, but 20% of the COVID cases and deaths.

I attempted to display the data from the official Utah website - https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/    If you go to the site and look at the regions of Utah it shows that currently the Southwest area (where Zion is) it is currently (yesterday) at about 9 new cases per 100,000.  Salt Lake county is currently at about 24 new cases per 100,000 and Utah county is at about 49 new per 100,000.   Utah county yesterday had over 5 times the infections per 100,000 residents - Salt Lake county was only 2 and 2/3 times as many infections per 100,000 as southwest Utah.

The death rate in Southwest Utah ought to be higher because that is primarily retirement communities - which means old people that are highly susceptible to COVID.  The young dumb population should lower the death rate considerably.  They are not likely to die from infection and if they keep it up we should have heard immunity in about 100 days - before the vaccine is available to all segments of the population.

 

The Traveler

Edited by Traveler

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I did not watch it personally, only read the news stories, but for once, I am in agreement with Trump if the New Stories are correct.  Trump disagreed with the CDC director when the CDC director said that masks would be more effective than a vaccine.  Trump said the vaccine would be more effective.

NOW, if enough take the Vaccine, it will be far more effective than wearing masks in my opinion.  You give it to all the kids and college students, even at 80% effectiveness, that achieves herd immunity among them.  Right now I see the young as the primary infection vectors. 

Of course, if everyone refuses to take it, or schools do not force students to have it, then obviously the vaccine will not be as effective, but hopefully there will be enough to take it to have it as effective for society.

Trump proposes that he will have 100 million doses by  the years end.  I don't know if that will come about or not.  The CDC director thinks it may be the second or third quarter next year before the vaccine is widely available.  I HOPE that Trump's statement of how many doses of the vaccine are available WILL be available.

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4 hours ago, Traveler said:

I attempted to display the data from the official Utah website - https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/    If you go to the site and look at the regions of Utah it shows that currently the Southwest area (where Zion is) it is currently (yesterday) at about 9 new cases per 100,000.  Salt Lake county is currently at about 24 new cases per 100,000 and Utah county is at about 49 new per 100,000.   Utah county yesterday had over 5 times the infections per 100,000 residents - Salt Lake county was only 2 and 2/3 times as many infections per 100,000 as southwest Utah.

True, but the SW region on that map covers a huge area and the vast majority of those cases are concentrated in Washington County, where Zion National Park is located.

https://swuhealth.org/covid/

Washington County has 17 cases per 100,000, which isn't that much lower than Salt Lake.

Most of SW Utah outside Washington County has very few cases, thus the lower numbers for SW Utah as a whole.

The death rate in Southwest Utah ought to be higher because that is primarily retirement communities - which means old people that are highly susceptible to COVID.

People do retire there, but still only a minority of the population is retirees.

The median age in Washington County is 36, roughly equal to the median age for the nation.

By Utah standards though, that's pretty old for a median.

 

20200917_183854.jpg

Edited by Scott

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I'm sure this will shock some of you but thought I would let you all know, that yesterday I volunteered for the vaccine trials for Covid-19, held up in the Ogden Utah area. The vaccine is one that was created in Russia.
I received my first shot yesterday at 4:00 pm, and I wanted to let you all know that it’s completely safe, with иo side effects whatsoeveя, and that I feelshκι χoρoshό я чувствую себя немного странно и я думаю, что вытащил ослин.
Edited by mirkwood

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45 minutes ago, mirkwood said:
I'm sure this will shock some of you but thought I would let you all know, that yesterday I volunteered for the vaccine trials for Covid-19, held up in the Ogden Utah area. The vaccine is one that was created in Russia.
I received my first shot yesterday at 4:00 pm, and I wanted to let you all know that it’s completely safe, with иo side effects whatsoeveя, and that I feelshκι χoρoshό я чувствую себя немного странно и я думаю, что вытащил ослин.

A good ole greasy cheeseburger, MAGA hat, and apple pie should counter act any side effects

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