Russia-Ukraine conflict


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It appears the invasion has started or at least Russian troops are now moving blatantly into Ukraine from the sources I've heard from (around 2-3 hours old at this point).

I suppose it depends on how reliable those sources are though.  I haven't heard it on the news yet.

Edited by JohnsonJones
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2 hours ago, JohnsonJones said:

It appears the invasion has started or at least Russian troops are now moving blatantly into Ukraine from the sources I've heard from (around 2-3 hours old at this point).

I suppose it depends on how reliable those sources are though.  I haven't heard it on the news yet.

My understanding is that these are segments of Ukraine that have basically been out of control of the Kiev authorities for some eight years now, and that Russian forces have been in and out of those regions for some time.  The tripping wire will be if/when the Russkies move into the western parts of the country.

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For the past couple of weeks, I've been concerned about a potential invasion into Ukraine. I'm far less concerned this morning than I have been in days.  No joke, I've been checking news reports every hour I'm awake nervous to see that the invasion had begun.

For context, I served as a missionary primarily in Kyiv, and for several months, lived in an apartment two blocks away from the plaza where the Orange Revolution took place. I actually met Victor Yanukovytch (the last pro-Russian prime minister who was effectively chased out of the country in 2014). The country holds a special status in my heart, and the thought of it being subjected to Russian rule again was painful.

Ukraine has a different kind of relationship with Russia than any of the other former soviet states.  The Russian language even addresses Ukraine differently than any other country.  The out-of-date way of referring to the country as "the Ukraine" comes from the Russian syntax of "na Ukaryina" which translates to "on the Ukraine." It's the same way that one might say they were going to spend a holiday "on the farm." In contrast, when talking about any of the other former soviet states, they would, for example, the article "v Latvia" or "in Latvia".  This is to say, Russia feels a unique sense of ownership over Ukraine. For Ukraine to make moves toward NATO membership is primally offensive to that sense of ownership.

On Ukraine's part, ethnically Ukrainian people have no great love for Russia, and a lot of memories of mistreatment and abuse at the hands of the Soviet Union. They don't trust Russia, they especially don't trust Putin, and they feel a certain sense of urgency in making strides to join NATO specifically to protect themselves from future Russian aggression. 

I am fully convinced that Putin considers the reannexation of Ukraine an important long term strategic goal and symbolic measure of restoring the power and influence of the Soviet Union. I don't think he intended to perform that annexation in this current crisis.  Instead, I think his desire was to secure some kind of concession from NATO that it wasn't going to admit Ukraine, and more importantly, to intimidate Ukrainian leaders from pursuing any further steps to join NATO.  

His plan kind of blew up in his face, though. I believe he had expected more in-fighting from NATO countries.  Instead, he found a surprisingly unified front from not just the US, but England, France, and Germany as well. Alliances within NATO that he had hoped to divide and weaken came together and showed stronger resolve. That was not to Putin's advantage.  Even more surprisingly, Finland--a country that is not part of the NATO alliance and acts as a kind of buffer on Russian north western border--started making noise that it may consider NATO membership to protect itself from this kind of Russian aggression in the future. That is very much not in Russia's strategic goals, especially since the barriers to NATO admission for Finland are very small compared to those in Ukraine (Ukraine still needs to clean up some corruption and human rights issues before NATO membership is a viable option).

This spectacular blow up created a really dangerous situation, because Putin isn't the kind of personality that is willing to take a loss.  His power in Russia derives from the image of his strength (which is far more tenuous than is broadcast in state media). If he were to just back away after putting on this big of a show, he would look weak, and he is unwilling to do that. 

This is why the recognition of two new states in southeast Ukraine, and the mobilization of troops into those "states" is important. This is how he backs out gracefully while still being able to report to Russia that he has "protected ethnic Russians" in those regions. Don't be surprised if there is little military response to this invasion. In the long term, I think you see those regions eventually annexed into Russia, Ukraine continues to make efforts to join NATO, and Russia employs less obvious means of trying to prevent Ukraine from ever meeting NATO admission requirements (in the form of supporting political divisions and cyber attacks).

Personally, I'm half relieved that open war was averted.  The other half of me wishes NATO would send its rage out in full force and humiliate the Russian army (NATO could do so, if it wanted to). But I also know that my second half is kind of vindictive, and that a wounded Russia might be more dangerous than a placated Russia. 

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I listened to the Ukrainian ambassador to the USA yesterday.   He was saying that back in the Clinton administration the USA signed a treaty with the independent country of Ukraine that if Ukraine surrendered the nuclear weapons that they were in possession of following the collapse of the USSR - that the USA would defend them if they were attacked by a foreign entity. 

I have wondered what interest the USA has in Ukraine?  Now I wonder what use should any country have in signing any treaty with the USA.  Obviously sanctions or the threat of sanctions do not defend Ukraine.   I will be honest - I do not know all the details of our treaty.   I am sad that no one has conformed or denied the treaty - not Fox News or any other news outlet.  I would think a free press in a free country would confirm or provide an accurate correction.  

There ought to be someone still around that was a part of the treaty that could honestly clarify our stand and intent at the time.  But then we were not so upright in keeping our treaties with the Native Americans.  I thought we should be better at keeping our word. 

 

But then I have another concern.  So we shut down the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline - but there is yet to be a drop of oil flow through that pipeline????  And the two Russian banks that we are freezing assets - already had sanctions from the Russia invasion of the Crimea peninsula (which was once part of Ukraine).  The old sanctions did not have much effect - what are we really doing.  Since 80% of the Russian economy depends on their oil exports - would someone explain to me how we can apply crippling sanctions that will hurt Russia more than it will hurt us or our NATO allies?  Will we enter a land war with Russia if they invade Estonia????

 

The Traveler

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54 minutes ago, carlimac said:

Does anyone know if missionaries have been removed from Poland? I can’t find any news on that.

I do not have any data but I am of the opinion that missionary calls will be suspended soon - depending on what happens between now and general conference.  Unlike Ben Shapiro as quoted by @mikbone I believe the next step in process will be cyber attacks - on the banking and oil industry in the west (Europe, and the Americas).  We are far more vulnerable than advertised.  I believe that by late spring or early summer we will see double digit inflation, food shortages and disruption in medical supplies supply chain.  Shortly after China will take Taiwan.  If the USA continues to follow the sanction format - I believe South Korea will be next followed by Japan.

I also speculate that inside the USA there will be terror attacks - starting with infrastructure and transportation.  It is interesting to me that the only country that can isolate sections of the internet within their country is China.  (More speculation - using the Book of Mormon format) there will be a uprising of crime (secret combinations) that will disrupt the USA's ability to conduct foreign war.  --- Sorry for the pessimism but I have had impressions that this year will be the most difficult.  That we are indeed in the last days and there will be increased indications and signs.

 

The Traveler 

Edited by Traveler
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1 minute ago, Traveler said:

 I believe the next step in process will be cyber attacks - on the banking and oil industry in the west (Europe, and the Americas).

Yup, that and more are all part of Putin’s playbook.  Listening to the audiobook now.

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Just now, mikbone said:

Yup, that and more are all part of Putin’s playbook.  Listening to the audiobook now.

Do not kid yourself - Putin is not acting alone.  This staged play has been long in preparation.  China has more control of the internet than Russia - I speculate that we will very soon see other players that will surprise us all.

 

The Traveler

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3 hours ago, carlimac said:

.....

How do you prepare for a cyber war?

Limit the use of the internet to non-essentials.  Close out all financial possibilities on the internet - send checks to pay bills and use cash for as many transactions as possible.   Make sure your cars tend towards a full tank and have a plan if the power grid fails.   Hopefully, any cyber incursions will be less than 2 weeks in duration. 

Most likely the cyber incursions will target financial institutions, infrastructure (power and utilities) and communications.  The military developed their own network decades ago so all targets will be leveled towards civilization institutions. 

 

The Traveler

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