Russia-Ukraine conflict

[Carborendum]

On 2/25/2022 at 12:10 PM, mikbone said:

One thing that amazed me was how this general had all the best lines in the whole movie.

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Mr. McKittrick, after very careful consideration, sir, I've come to the conclusion that your new defense system sucks.

[Traveler]

After hearing the State of the Union address by Biden - I am more concerned than ever for Ukraine.  As long as the USA (Europe and anyone else that opposes aggression) follow the path of dependence on Russia for energy (whatever the amount or percentage of dependency) and energy costs contline to increase - all other actions, words, sanctions and threats are insufficient.   In war, sports or even investing - playing to one's opponent's (competition) strength is a strategy of certain failure.   Hopefully I will not have to explain this in more detail.  

I am also concerned that other oppressive regimes picked up on this as easily as I did.  China imports energy but has positioned themselves smartly with other means of making us hostages.  There is a general idea that a global economy will make the world safer but it also creates dependencies which can very easily create the opposite effect.

 

The Traveler

[mikbone]

Watch it.  Heartbreaking.

This documentary is from the atrocities that occurred in 2014.  

I just kept thinking of the Anti Lehi Nephi group in the BoM. 

Its shameful that the USA wont step up to protect our brothers in Europe that thirst for Liberty.

At the least we need to stop buying Putin’s oil.  I hope we have undercover forces in Ukraine causing Putin harm.

I’m sure that the vast majority of the Russian people don’t want this war.

Putin needs to be stopped.  The sooner the better.

Edited March 3, 2022 by mikbone

[Traveler]

13 hours ago, mikbone said:

Watch it.  Heartbreaking.

This documentary is from the atrocities that occurred in 2014.  

I just kept thinking of the Anti Lehi Nephi group in the BoM. 

Its shameful that the USA wont step up to protect our brothers in Europe that thirst for Liberty.

At the least we need to stop buying Putin’s oil.  I hope we have undercover forces in Ukraine causing Putin harm.

I’m sure that the vast majority of the Russian people don’t want this war.

Putin needs to be stopped.  The sooner the better.

I share you concern but I am of the mind that we are dealing with tyrants in our own country and politics.  You suggested that we quit the purchase of Russian oil.  That is not at all the problem of Russian oil as much as it is the political resolve to destroy the energy (oil) foundation of the USA and the "free" world beginning with the canceling of the Keystone XL pipeline.  Sadly the turning point that enabled this tragedy was the election of a president that intended to diminish our energy industry.  It never seems to fail; those that make political decisions with their hearts rather than their brains - most often result in a train wreck like we are currently observing.  One can only hope that those that voted unwittingly to enable this disaster will learn and intelligently modify their behavior.

Those that politically forced this nation to purchase Russian oil and prevent or inhibit the production of domestic oil are as responsible as Putin.  Because the USA is the leader of the free world - as the USA behaves so the free world follows.  It has been said all that evil needs to succeed is for good to do nothing.  I would change that statement slightly to all that evil needs to succeed is for those that pretend to be good to foolishly enable evil by not being responsible.

 

The Traveler 

[mikbone]

1 hour ago, Traveler said:

That is not at all the problem of Russian oil as much as it is the political resolve to destroy the energy (oil) foundation of the USA and the "free" world beginning with the canceling of the Keystone XL pipeline. 

We are currently subsidizing this war by purchasing Putin’s oil.  /facepalm

Obviously we have a problem in our own country when the only two options for the presidential election is a prideful clown (Trump) vs a life long politician with obvious dementia (Biden).

I would like to think that we can do better.  Oh, that we could have an uncorrupt god-fearing, humble, intelligent leader…

We will soon be getting off of the crude oil nipple.  All 7 car super-bowl commercials were for electric cars.  I just purchased a huge solar array for my home and will purchase electric cars in the future.

We will obviously continue to use fossil fuels for the next few decades.  Hopefully fusion energy production will become viable in the near future.

 

Edited March 3, 2022 by mikbone

[Ironhold]

The issue right now IMHO is how long Ukraine can hold out without direct military reinforcements from other countries. 

They're doing tremendous damage to the Russian Army, with the soldiers coming to realize that they are not actually "liberating" an "oppressed" country. It has also shown that the Russian military has terrible logistics and supply chains. 

The issue, though, is that the Russian Navy and their marine complement are lethally effective, meaning that they're a serious threat to the coastline and the cities thereon. Even though the northern and eastern offensives have stalled, the southern offensive is still going on.

[NeuroTypical]

22 minutes ago, mikbone said:

We are currently subsidizing this war by purchasing Putin’s oil.

I'm wondering if this will be a midterm election deciding issue.  I wonder how many Republican candidates will run on a platform on "end buying Russian oil immediately".  Right now it's a fun and passionate talking point, but since we killed the pipeline and moved back into energy dependence, something like this might cause people notice, because their lives get a little harder.  

Put differently, would you be willing to quit buying Russian oil, if it meant we'd all see $8 or $10/gal gas?

[mikbone]

40 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

I'm wondering if this will be a midterm election deciding issue.  I wonder how many Republican candidates will run on a platform on "end buying Russian oil immediately".  Right now it's a fun and passionate talking point, but since we killed the pipeline and moved back into energy dependence, something like this might cause people notice, because their lives get a little harder.  

Put differently, would you be willing to quit buying Russian oil, if it meant we'd all see $8 or $10/gal gas?

Even Nancy Pelosi is for a Putin oil embargo.  (Although, I'm not sure she would recognize the truth if it hit her over the head with a 2x4).

Nancy Pelosi calls for a ban on Russian oil imports: 'I'm all for that. Ban it' (msn.com)

I'm a fighter.  I'd sacrifice much more than $ for the liberation of Ukraine. 

$10 gallon gas does not scare me.  I live in California. 

[LDSGator]

2 minutes ago, mikbone said:

I'm a fighter.  I'd sacrifice much more than $ for the liberation of Ukraine. 

Could a civilian like you volunteer to help the Ukraine? What would you have to do?

[mikbone]

7 minutes ago, LDSGator said:

Could a civilian like you volunteer to help the Ukraine? What would you have to do?

https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/ukraine/2022/02/27/want-to-go-fight-for-ukraine-heres-what-to-do/

I'd be more useful as a medical corps.  

I've been looking into how I can send $$ to support Ukraine.  Haven't had any success yet.  

They don't need money now.  They need weapons, food, shelter, medicine.  

I hope our church is sending supplies to help lessen the suffering. 

After the destruction, they will need $ to rebuild. 

Glory to Ukraine!

Edited March 3, 2022 by mikbone

[LDSGator]

5 minutes ago, mikbone said:

https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/ukraine/2022/02/27/want-to-go-fight-for-ukraine-heres-what-to-do/

I'd be more useful as a medical corps.  

I've been looking into how I can send $$ to support Ukraine.  Haven't had any success yet.  

They don't need money now.  They need weapons, food, shelter, medicine.  

I hope our church is sending supplies to help lessen the suffering. 

After the destruction, they will need $ to rebuild. 

Ahh. Thanks. I’m a coward at heart, I’ll stick to donating money through charities. 

[mikbone]

Glory to Ukraine!

[mikbone]

https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/02/27/verified-ways-to-help-the-ukrainian-army/

This site has the info necessary for wire funds transfer. 

[SilentOne]

13 hours ago, mikbone said:

I hope our church is sending supplies to help lessen the suffering.

https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/church-helping-eastern-europe

[Traveler]

I have long held to the concept that every person should complete a military obligation before they are considered a citizen.  As bazar as it may sound; I believe it helpful to society that everyone with sufficient intelligence to be a citizen, complete a military obligation during a time of war.  For the sake of not posting volumes that I am quite sure no one on the forum would read I will not go into the depths of why I believe this and how it relates to enduring trials but I would say this - one's opinion of military conflict changes unmeasurably when numbers of individuals you have come to personally know (even when you do not appreciate them so much) are killed in military conflict - let alone seeing the tragic changes to those that survive combat. 

To some small degree we are experiencing the horrors of war.  Most of this is coming from our news outlets (which are highly filtered and one sided) of the horrible inflictions of civilians caught in the various combat theaters and the fringes of devastations.  Most of us live outside of war's devastations.  We may suffer various discomforts but not the horrors of those (and their loved ones) caught in the theaters of war.  As we observe the filtered horrors of war we are convinced that war is the most terrible thing that can happen to individuals, families, communities and countries.  We begin to think that war must be avoided at all costs.  

Winston Churchill (a veteran of war's devastation)  made a most profound statement about being involved directly in war.  In essence he said that there is nothing worse than war with the single exception of loosing one.  Before I continue - I would make it clear that I am not for ever starting a war.  Nor am I for following a path that encourages or initiates war.  As much as I dislike war and do not want to be perceived by anyone as a war hawk - the surest way to loose a war is encapsulated in the intent that war must be avoided at ALL costs. 

Rather than comment on what we (as a country) ought to do about this conflict and what our leaders ought to do about it - I would give an opinion and impression that Ukraine will eventually loose this war.  It is also my impression that Putin wants this war to be most brutal to accomplish two purposes.  First, to break the will of the people of Ukraine and secondly to convince the USA and NATO (as well as the world) that opposition towards his plans is not worth it.  I am becoming convinced of two things.  First that the Ukraine's that die in the conflict will be better off than those that survive and Secondly that if someone else does not stop Putin first - that the conflict we see in Ukraine will come to us.  When it does come to us - we will either unite our differences (political, social and otherwise) or we will loose.

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I will put this in quotes to explain the above post - If you have not yet noticed; my final sentence is a completion of my first two sentences of this post.

 

The Traveler 

[Carborendum]

On 3/3/2022 at 7:11 PM, mikbone said:

https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/02/27/verified-ways-to-help-the-ukrainian-army/

This site has the info necessary for wire funds transfer. 

Recently Ammo, Inc pledged 1 million rounds of 7.62 rounds for the Ukranian army.  I wrote them and here is their response.

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Dear AMMO, Inc. Supporter:

We’ve honestly received an incredible and truly overwhelming response from our shareholders, customers, vendors and partners in support of our published donation offer to help the Ukrainian Armed Forces in their fight for freedom.  Everyone within the AMMO Family is sincerely grateful for you reaching out directly to us and confirming your generous spirit and unwavering willingness to provide additional financial support to supplement the efforts of the AMMO Family, of which you are now a part. We can confirm in the strongest terms that the management team is working around the clock to navigate the logistical and legal complexities involved in seeing that the ammunition Ukraine has specifically requested is swiftly delivered to the proper parties in-country.  It takes time, money and attention to detail to make it happen- and it is happening at relative lightspeed. Your support of AMMO as a current shareholder or someone that is going to invest in our Nasdaq traded company (  ­) only strengthens our operational ability to be of service in this time of need while continuing to grow our exciting Company.

We have spent the last couple days working independently and with advisors to best determine the proper NGO/humanitarian aid organization to direct all our current and incoming shareholders and supporters to in order to make certain the gracious offers to donate are directed in real-time to support the brave men, women and children in Ukraine.  As a result, we ask that you direct your donations as follows:

CARE (Charity Navigator rating of 92.64 out of 100)

https://my.care.org/site/Donation2?df_id=31071&mfc_pref=T&31071.donation=form1&s_src=172220UCFM00&s_subsrc=FY22UkraineCrisisFundMO

We will send out supplemental information about AMMO and/or Ukrainian support activities and opportunities as they arise.  And we will also let everyone know when the donated ammunition has been delivered in-county in Ukraine. 

God Bless the United States and Protect the Brave People of Ukraine

Sincerely,

 

AMMO Team

I liked how they showed CARE's rating.  Anything over 90 is a gold standard.  I'm pledging.

[Just_A_Guy]

Most of y’all have probably seen this already; it sounds like LDS Charities saw the writing on the wall and pre-positioned humanitarian assets around the borders even before the invasion.

A random thought I had today was that given the effects of the sanctions on Russia (Task and Purpose described the resultant stagflation there this way:  imagine waking up tomorrow and finding that 30% of your bank balance is just gone):  when the dust settles from this, Russian authorities may be eager for any foreign investment they can get—even if it comes in the form of construction projects by a wealthy American church.

[LDSGator]

The aura of the Russian armed forces is gone. Putin reminds me of the school yard bully who never gets hit back. When his victims don’t just roll over and play dead he is, at first, stunned. Will the Ukraine win in the long run? Probably not. But Putin has shown his weaknesses now. 

[NeuroTypical]

I honestly don't know what this means, but I have some random weird acquaintances in Russia who upload weird stuff to YouTube, and they've uploaded business-as-usual weird stuff twice since the invasion.  The last one, two hours ago.  I'm not the best at detecting notes of things, but I detect a note of defiance from them - they're going about their usual business despite Putin.  Happily celebrating international Women's day with a video they've spent months working on.  Including a scene where two characters holding a Russian and Ukrainian flag are dancing. 

They seem to have no problem communicating via the YouTube comments section.  Their original statement from 12 days ago is still up:

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We hope that Ukrainians will be fine. We don't support war. Some mistakenly believe that since we are Russians, we are to blame for what is happening. We are just ordinary people like you. We haven't decided anything in our country for a long time, we don't have any rights. The world is mired in capitalism and this is bearing fruit. We express our condolences to all those who are currently in a difficult situation. We have many Ukrainian friends and even relatives. We, like everyone else, are closely monitoring the situation and are worried about the events taking place.

Мы надеемся, что с украинцами все будет хорошо. Мы не поддерживаем войну. Некоторые ошибочно полагают, что поскольку мы русские, мы виноваты в происходящем. Мы такие же обычные люди, как и вы. Мы уже давно ничего не решаем в нашей стране, у нас нет никаких прав на это. Мир погряз в капитализме, это приносит свои плоды. Мы выражаем наши соболезнования всем тем, кто сейчас находится в трудной ситуации. У нас много украинских друзей и даже родственников. Мы, как и все остальные, внимательно следим за ситуацией и обеспокоены происходящими событиями. #Ukraine

 

Edited March 8, 2022 by NeuroTypical

[Ironhold]

2 hours ago, LDSGator said:

The aura of the Russian armed forces is gone. Putin reminds me of the school yard bully who never gets hit back. When his victims don’t just roll over and play dead he is, at first, stunned. Will the Ukraine win in the long run? Probably not. But Putin has shown his weaknesses now. 

The Russian Navy and their marine complements have taken a major coastal city and are generally gaining a fair amount of territory. 

So while the Russian Army has largely collapsed, the Navy and Marines could well seize the country. 

What Ukraine needs is actual, direct military reinforcements from an organized military force, but no actual nation is willing to get involved right now lest it start WWIII. The best Ukraine can hope for right now is foreign mercenaries. 

[Just_A_Guy]

3 hours ago, Ironhold said:

The Russian Navy and their marine complements have taken a major coastal city and are generally gaining a fair amount of territory. 

So while the Russian Army has largely collapsed, the Navy and Marines could well seize the country. 

What Ukraine needs is actual, direct military reinforcements from an organized military force, but no actual nation is willing to get involved right now lest it start WWIII. The best Ukraine can hope for right now is foreign mercenaries. 

I wonder if some countries that might otherwise be inclined to do more (Poland, for example) are actually being hamstrung by their NATO membership; since the western countries would be dragged into a war if Russia chose to retaliate.  Is the USA leaning on eastern NATO countries to do less than they want to do?

[MarginOfError]

10 hours ago, Just_A_Guy said:

I wonder if some countries that might otherwise be inclined to do more (Poland, for example) are actually being hamstrung by their NATO membership; since the western countries would be dragged into a war if Russia chose to retaliate.  Is the USA leaning on eastern NATO countries to do less than they want to do?

I can't speak with any authority, but I would guess the countries bordering Ukraine are actually more resistant to direct confrontation than you might think. 

All indications I'm getting from this are that none of this makes any sense.  Russia can't reasonably expect to maintain the territories they've captured so far; the occupying force they would need to take and hold these parts of Ukraine is estimated to be somewhere in the vicinity of 500,000 troops.  This is not the work of a rational actor. Which means you have a mad man with a personal vendetta and no clear successor sitting on top of a nuclear arsenal. Given the increase in soviet era tactics (amp up the annihilation and try to break the people), I have genuine fears that we're going to see a tactical nuke go off in Kyiv if Putin can't take it. 

The big fear on NATOs end is that a direct intervention accelerates Putin's anger. Poland doesn't want tactical nukes going off in Lviv, Rivne, Lutsk, or Ivano-Frankivsk.

The sickening and heart breaking thing about this is that the best possible outcome is for the Russians to topple Putin on their own*. The massive and rapid increase in sanctions works toward that goal. Regrettably, we have to infuriate them and turn them against their government. Unfortunately, there are no sanctions we can impose that will do this quickly.  The wealthy and middle class in Russia are certainly feeling the affect of sanctions pretty quickly, but the lower class  (which is quite large) won't feel the pinch for weeks. 

What we are witnessing right now is the nightmare scenario of autocracy in the nuclear age.  And, to make a political statement, it speaks to the dire need to eliminate nuclear weapons for the world wide arsenals. 

 

* And lets be honest--when it comes to toppling brutal dictators, the Russians are the pros.

[MarginOfError]

16 hours ago, Just_A_Guy said:

Most of y’all have probably seen this already; it sounds like LDS Charities saw the writing on the wall and pre-positioned humanitarian assets around the borders even before the invasion.

A random thought I had today was that given the effects of the sanctions on Russia (Task and Purpose described the resultant stagflation there this way:  imagine waking up tomorrow and finding that 30% of your bank balance is just gone):  when the dust settles from this, Russian authorities may be eager for any foreign investment they can get—even if it comes in the form of construction projects by a wealthy American church.

I would consider this unlikely. No matter what Russian governmental authorities feel about it, the Russian Orthodox church will still fight tooth and nail against it.

I will say this, though: when this is all done and over, please seek out business from (reputable) Russian sources. Russian people aren't all that different from Ukrainians.  All of the good and glorious things we are seeing from Ukrainians that we keep praising, the Russians share all of those traits. They are going to suffer enormously from this. They are collateral casualties in an economic war to end a military conflict. I hope we are as generous to the Russian populace after this as we are to the Ukrainian populace.

[mikbone]

14 minutes ago, MarginOfError said:

Russian people aren't all that different from Ukrainians. 

Oh yeah, Jacob and Esau are fraternal twins. Essentially the same person.

Edited March 9, 2022 by mikbone

[Just_A_Guy]

2 hours ago, MarginOfError said:

What we are witnessing right now is the nightmare scenario of autocracy in the nuclear age.  And, to make a political statement, it speaks to the dire need to eliminate nuclear weapons for the world wide arsenals. 

A completely nuke-free world would undoubtedly be a better place, but I think recent events make that dream even more unlikely.  In the current conflict Putin has been immeasurably empowered by his possession of nukes, and Ukraine has been immeasurably hamstrung by the fact that they gave theirs away.  The takeaway here is likeIy to be that unilateral nuclear disarmament is merely a precursor to your own people becoming the victims of theft, rape, and murder by their greedy neighbors while the international community sits on its hands in terror.

2 hours ago, MarginOfError said:

I would consider this unlikely. No matter what Russian governmental authorities feel about it, the Russian Orthodox church will still fight tooth and nail against it.

I will say this, though: when this is all done and over, please seek out business from (reputable) Russian sources. Russian people aren't all that different from Ukrainians.  All of the good and glorious things we are seeing from Ukrainians that we keep praising, the Russians share all of those traits. They are going to suffer enormously from this. They are collateral casualties in an economic war to end a military conflict. I hope we are as generous to the Russian populace after this as we are to the Ukrainian populace.

I agree re the treatment of Russian nationals.

As for the Russian Orthodox Church:  it’ll be interesting to see what kind of influence they maintain in the next decade.  Obviously I can’t speak with any authority here; but if (as I understand to be the case) they have been in Putin’s pocket and are unqualified cheerleaders for the war, and if the war goes badly . . . Russians have also, in the past, shown themselves adept at directing fearsome temper tantrums towards the Orthodox Church.