Russia-Ukraine conflict


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It is hard to say what is happening in Russia currently.  Russia has made headway in Ukraine, but it has been slow.  The questions are whether they will retain enough manpower to continue this, or if eventually the will of their people will falter and the tides will turn in Ukraine's favor so that they can regain the lost areas. 

I saw a prediction that some feel Russia will last until early 2023, at which point they could collapse or other things may happen that will eventually lead to the end of the war in Ukraine.  I still feel it is hard to see the future though.

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8 hours ago, JohnsonJones said:

It is hard to say what is happening in Russia currently.  Russia has made headway in Ukraine, but it has been slow.  The questions are whether they will retain enough manpower to continue this, or if eventually the will of their people will falter and the tides will turn in Ukraine's favor so that they can regain the lost areas. 

I saw a prediction that some feel Russia will last until early 2023, at which point they could collapse or other things may happen that will eventually lead to the end of the war in Ukraine.  I still feel it is hard to see the future though.

On one hand, the Russian military has allegedly suffered such extreme casualties that they're offering prison inmates early parole if they agree to enlist. 

On the other hand, the war hasn't reached the average Russian citizen (that is, those citizens who do not have friends or family on the front lines) and the foreign companies pulling out represent a mere disruption as a number of Russian companies have moved in to fill the gaps, often with close knock-offs. 

It's going to come down to what collapses first: the Ukrainian military for lack of direct foreign reinforcements (those assorted mercenaries and whatnot don't count, as many are doing more harm than good), the Russian military for the high casualties, morale among the Ukrainian civilians, or the Russian economy. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Russia has bitten off more than it can chew. HIMARS are making the difference so far, ammo depots and supply lines being destroyed are also slowing down the invaders. I can't see Ukraine losing this. The question will be, how hard and far do the Ukrainians want to push back. 

Putin handing out free cars to the families of fallen Soldiers, only to run out of cars says everything I need to know. 

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  • 1 month later...

The main bridge to the Crimea has been damaged.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=itq6mREUM6Q

Interesting thing here is that the bombers made the same mistake as the first attack on the WTC.  In fact, that same mistake was made when they did the second attack that eventually caused the towers to fall.  It was only by unintended consequences that the towers actually fell.

Based on what is visible in the available images/videos that bridge is not in all that bad a condition (the automobile bridge is broken, but the rail bridge is still easily repairable).  If they knew what they were doing it would have been a much bigger deal.  But there was a lot that was obscured.  So, the damage may be greater than it appears.

Reports say that this was not an act by the Ukrainian government/military, but of ordinary citizens committing vandalism against the Russians.  I guess we'll find out if that is true in time to come.

Edited by Carborendum
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7 hours ago, Carborendum said:

The main bridge to the Crimea has been damaged.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=itq6mREUM6Q

Interesting thing here is that the bombers made the same mistake as the first attack on the WTC.  In fact, that same mistake was made when they did the second attack that eventually caused the towers to fall.  It was only by unintended consequences that the towers actually fell.

Based on what is visible in the available images/videos that bridge is not in all that bad a condition (the automobile bridge is broken, but the rail bridge is still easily repairable).  If they knew what they were doing it would have been a much bigger deal.  But there was a lot that was obscured.  So, the damage may be greater than it appears.

Reports say that this was not an act by the Ukrainian government/military, but of ordinary citizens committing vandalism against the Russians.  I guess we'll find out if that is true in time to come.

Basically, those bridges exist to help Russia exert its authority over the Crimea. That even one of the bridges has been taken down makes it harder for Russia to physically insert officials to control the region. And repairing the other would require them to maintain control of Crimea, as it would take a number of vessels and likely engineers working from both sides. Word I'm hearing is that Russian warships are wary of getting too close to shore because Ukraine has been supplied with enough anti-shipping missiles as to make any excursions a risky proposition. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Team_Yankee

I know it's likely going to be hard to find a copy, but I very much recommend that people pick up and read "Team Yankee". 

Author Harold Coyle was a major in the United States Army at the time he wrote it, and he wrote it following a hypothetical outline of WWIII as published by General Sir John Hackett of the British Army. A *lot* of what we've been seeing happen is reflected in this book (and by extension, General Sir Hackett's outline), such as the infamously terrible Soviet supply lines being so bad that units have to rotate to the rear to resupply and the critical importance of bridges in the Soviets maintaining control over regions. 

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9 hours ago, Carborendum said:

The main bridge to the Crimea has been damaged.

I'm totally fascinated by my ability to see multiple camera angles of the explosion, on TikTok, within hours of it happening, from under my covers this morning.   And reading the comments of Russians and Ukrainians arguing (and agreeing) with each other in the comments sections.

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  • 2 weeks later...

China's grand plan is now evident.

Encourage Russia to attack Ukraine knowing that NATO would want to back them up.  The US has now drained the bank.  Our arms are at a very low spot.  For the sake of domestic politics, we've drained our strategic petroleum reserves so we can neither heat our homes this winter, nor supply the military in the event of war.

OPEC+ is now going to lower supply causing any new purchases to be at a premium while the OPEC+ nations (incl China and Russia) get it for a steal of a deal.

The US will be without oil, power, munitions, or money to keep China from walking into Taiwan and taking it over for free.

They may not be able to take over mainland US. But we are extremely vulnerable at this time.  You can bet they are entertaining the notion of taking the Pacific (possibly including Alaska).

Why did people not see this coming?

Edited by Carborendum
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On 10/16/2022 at 6:10 PM, Carborendum said:

China's grand plan is now evident.

Encourage Russia to attack Ukraine knowing that NATO would want to back them up.  The US has now drained the bank.  Our arms are at a very low spot.  For the sake of domestic politics, we've drained our strategic petroleum reserves so we can neither heat our homes this winter, nor supply the military in the event of war.

OPEC+ is now going to lower supply causing any new purchases to be at a premium while the OPEC+ nations (incl China and Russia) get it for a steal of a deal.

The US will be without oil, power, munitions, or money to keep China from walking into Taiwan and taking it over for free.

They may not be able to take over mainland US. But we are extremely vulnerable at this time.  You can bet they are entertaining the notion of taking the Pacific (possibly including Alaska).

Why did people not see this coming?

????

I don't see this, but I suppose we will see this winter...

Though...as Texas is on a different grid than everyone else, I do think Texas energy prices will be several times higher than everyone else's in the states, but I think they are already been there for a while...so nothing new there.

The US COULD be self sufficient, if the corporations changed how the supply chains worked...but we sell all our oil to others and buy the oil we use from someone else as well.  It supposedly makes more money for everyone, but of course, it also makes it so the globalization is more interconnected with events affecting us from elsewhere in the world. 

The military seems in fine shape right now.  We haven't been sending our men or the actual equipment OUR military uses over to Ukraine, but we have been sending supplies over to Ukraine. 

I guess we will see this winter, or if later (as I'm going to Alaska next year for a short bit) and see if I just happen to be fighting Russians while I'm up there (I highly doubt I will be, but we will see). 

 

PS:  I HAVE heard some rumors that China is actually in a bad way right now.  Serious ramifications have hit them from the past decade and the declaration from the US a week ago is hitting them hard in the tech arena.  It's unclear what is actually going on right now, but some say it is a full on panic which they are trying to hide, while others feel it's not going to make a ton of difference.

Edited by JohnsonJones
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8 hours ago, JohnsonJones said:

PS:  I HAVE heard some rumors that China is actually in a bad way right now.  Serious ramifications have hit them from the past decade and the declaration from the US a week ago is hitting them hard in the tech arena.  It's unclear what is actually going on right now, but some say it is a full on panic which they are trying to hide, while others feel it's not going to make a ton of difference.

In the aftermath of Covid, various online sleuths estimated that China's *actual* death toll was well into the millions; I want to say 7 - 14 million is the range most of the estimates were in. Even a country like China can't take that massive a hit to its population without some form of significant social disruption. 

People are also waking up to the routine and often massive human rights violations going on in China and so are trying to reduce the quantity of Chinese-made products they're purchasing to pressure companies into ceasing operations there. Hollywood has also found itself under pressure to cease pre-emptively censoring movies for Chinese audiences. 

Hong Kong is only "secure" because of marked police brutality, and the larger world knows this. 

North Korea is now a hot potato. The nation serves as a physical buffer between the West and China's borders, but the Kim regime is now so unstable that war is a constant danger. 

The events of the last few years are believed to be slowly rattling the foundations of the Chinese communist system, and the politicians & government-sponsored media are desperately trying to keep the word from getting out. 

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1 hour ago, Ironhold said:

that war is a constant danger. 

No it isn’t. Remember that kid in high school who always talks about tough he is but the moment an 8th grader takes him up on the offer he runs away and tattles? That’s North Korea. 

If you can‘t feed your troops they generally aren’t that great at fighting a war. 
 

Have you read Nothing to Envy by Barbra Demick? She talks in depth about a North Korean solider being blown away by a….set of nail clippers. Granted, this book is older, but if your troops can’t figure out technology from 1955, they aren’t a threat. 

Edited by LDSGator
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2 hours ago, Ironhold said:

In the aftermath of Covid, various online sleuths estimated that China's *actual* death toll was well into the millions; I want to say 7 - 14 million is the range most of the estimates were in. Even a country like China can't take that massive a hit to its population without some form of significant social disruption. 

People are also waking up to the routine and often massive human rights violations going on in China and so are trying to reduce the quantity of Chinese-made products they're purchasing to pressure companies into ceasing operations there. Hollywood has also found itself under pressure to cease pre-emptively censoring movies for Chinese audiences. 

Hong Kong is only "secure" because of marked police brutality, and the larger world knows this. 

North Korea is now a hot potato. The nation serves as a physical buffer between the West and China's borders, but the Kim regime is now so unstable that war is a constant danger. 

The events of the last few years are believed to be slowly rattling the foundations of the Chinese communist system, and the politicians & government-sponsored media are desperately trying to keep the word from getting out. 

Why are they "waking up"?  We've been aware of it since I was a kid.  But it seemed that we all just took a hands off approach to it.

  • What has changed that is making countries do something now?
  • What are the things that such countries are doing?
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11 hours ago, Carborendum said:

Why are they "waking up"?  We've been aware of it since I was a kid.  But it seemed that we all just took a hands off approach to it.

  • What has changed that is making countries do something now?
  • What are the things that such countries are doing?

 

Well, for one Biden basically said that certain jobs working under foreign governments would be punished.  This is seen targetting specifically the Chinese technological base.  It means that they have to choose to either stay in China and be unable to work on new tech, or go to the U.S. and be there.  They can't work both sides anymore.

It seems focused on chips because workers in Taiwan and with Samsung have been granted blanket immunity to continue to work in foreign investment, research, and technology in these areas that have suddenly been restricted otherwise. 

In addition, the basis of some of the Chinese money was real estate investment.  With economic turmoil and the currency changes, real estate was seen as a safe place to store money.  This is currently hitting some major fallbacks in China right now and the place is said to be in a free fall in regards to real estate money.

Ironically, the really rich don't have investments in China, they all have them in other nations (some of the big focuses for Chinese money stored in real estate is in the U.S. and Canada), but for most of those lower incomes that are not super high, this is turning into a financial disaster according to some outlets I've read.  People are losing their life savings over there and anything they had to retire on. 

Of course, I've heard this has happened several times in the past, so no idea how serious it is this time.  It has been used to explain the flood of Chinese money in the North American real estate markets, though now it seems that those who want to truly be secure are doubling down on the North American (and other) real estate markets at this point because while North American markets are holding their value, Chinese markets are not...at least at present.

This, among other things are some of the rumors I've heard.

It makes sense if they've actually lost several million people in China that the real estate prices would go down.  That could be a lot of property suddenly opening up if it hit the right classes and the right areas.  No idea though, but that is an interesting combination to look at if speculating on what could be actually happening. 

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18 hours ago, Carborendum said:

Why are they "waking up"?  We've been aware of it since I was a kid.  But it seemed that we all just took a hands off approach to it.

  • What has changed that is making countries do something now?
  • What are the things that such countries are doing?

Remember that live-action "Mulan" remake from a year or so back? 

It was filmed in an area *where whistle-blowers had provided video of ethnic cleansing*, and the credits for the movie thanked the government organization that is believed to have orchestrated the ethnic cleansing. 

That finally forced even a number of pro-China apologists to wake up. 

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1 hour ago, Ironhold said:

Remember that live-action "Mulan" remake from a year or so back? 

It was filmed in an area *where whistle-blowers had provided video of ethnic cleansing*, and the credits for the movie thanked the government organization that is believed to have orchestrated the ethnic cleansing. 

That finally forced even a number of pro-China apologists to wake up. 

I barely remember that movie even existed.  And I never saw it.  So, I'm not aware of this ethnic cleansing report.  Thank you for informing me.  They've done a lot worse and the band kept marching on.  I wonder why this is the trigger.

So, as a result of this... what is actually happening?  Protests?  They've had those before.  In fact they've been going on throughout the COVID shut down, which was much more restrictive there than it was here.

What is actually being done?

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China has some big “problems” now, especially with their youth. Right now hordes of young people are disgusted with communism.  My brother (who lives there) and I were talking about this over FB today. He sent me this message about a tattoo artist he knows: 

8B426D96-A6C5-475E-87AA-3FC2A0C075DB.jpeg
 

He mentioned that the government is “scared to death” that the youth are lost. Also, both exchange students we hosted spoke out vehemently against the government. I know my experiences don’t represent all of China, but they are interesting. 

China is realizing that the internet can’t be censored, and it’s glorious to see. The leaders are beginning to understand that in 2022 you can’t control information like you could in 1991. 

Once again, I wonder how effective a nation can be if your troops are starving (NK) or hate the system they are under (China). 

Edited by LDSGator
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https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/china-protests-against-xi-jinping-spread-to-many-cities-101666114416384-amp.html
 

Another fascinating thing he said. I know not everyone cares about the conversations him and are having, but this is some “on the ground, live” reporting. 

34861E79-581C-4061-8289-8681A7FD072F.jpeg
 

China is rapidly changing. Perhaps the war that everyone is planning/hoping to have won’t be as epic as we think. 

Edited by LDSGator
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I'm edified to hear that kids in China are managing to express disapproval with their govt without getting disappeared. 

I'm the opposite of edified as I think about the future of the U.S., with it's energized and organized anticonstitutional forces that hate capitalism, cops, laws, our current system of representative government, white people, gender, families, wealth, and themselves.  They ain't shrinking in numbers.

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37 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

I'm edified to hear that kids in China are managing to express disapproval with their govt without getting disappeared. 

I'm the opposite of edified as I think about the future of the U.S., with it's energized and organized anticonstitutional forces that hate capitalism, cops, laws, our current system of representative government, white people, gender, families, wealth, and themselves.  They ain't shrinking in numbers.

No disagreement, though I don’t think the “youth” of today hate those things as much as those of us on the right think they do. 

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22 hours ago, LDSGator said:

No disagreement, though I don’t think the “youth” of today hate those things as much as those of us on the right think they do. 

The issue is that younger audiences (kids, teens, and early 20s) are being bombarded with messages that are the polar opposite of the messages that members of a stable society need to hear, and so these individuals are slowly losing their moorings. 

Some people in power even regard their positions of power as a license to preach their personal values, including these harmful messages. 

That's why it's so important we make it a point to try and reach the youth with positive, helpful messages to teach them how to grow and develop. 

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50 minutes ago, Ironhold said:

The issue is that younger audiences (kids, teens, and early 20s) are being bombarded with messages that are the polar opposite of the messages that members of a stable society need to hear, and so these individuals are slowly losing their moorings. 

Some people in power even regard their positions of power as a license to preach their personal values, including these harmful messages. 

That's why it's so important we make it a point to try and reach the youth with positive, helpful messages to teach them how to grow and develop. 

It doesn’t take a lot of radicals to destabilize and overthrow a society; especially (and paradoxically) a mostly-free society whose mainstream pays lip service to the ideas of democracy and liberty.  In that sort of environment, a radical population of 10-20% can do quite nicely.  

Edited by Just_A_Guy
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13 minutes ago, Just_A_Guy said:

It doesn’t take a lot of radicals to destabilize and overthrow a society; especially (and paradoxically) a mostly-free society whose mainstream pays lip service to the ideas of democracy and liberty.  In that sort of environment, a radical population of 10-20% can do quite nicely.  

Why is that, do you think?

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19 hours ago, Carborendum said:

If you think that the Chinese youth "waking up" is going to have any appreciable effect on the stranglehold that the Chinese government has on its people, see this:

I need some help understanding what's going on here.  Who's Jinato?  Who's Xi?  What does this public removal signify?  What does it mean that Xi doesn't look at him? 

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1 hour ago, NeuroTypical said:

I need some help understanding what's going on here.  Who's Jinato?  Who's Xi?  What does this public removal signify?  What does it mean that Xi doesn't look at him? 

Hu Jintao was the former General Secretary of the CCP (Xi Jinping's predecessor).  He was much more peaceful and more capitalist oriented than Xi.  He was certainly more friendly to the US than Xi.  He was certainly less militant (less prone to use military force) than Xi.

This meeting was the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) congress.  It is a week long affair with all members of the Politburo.  As a former General Secretary he would be given a seat in a place of honor beside the current President.  But for some reason Xi didn't want him there.

The following article gives a pretty good analysis about what seemed so wrong with the events depicted in this video.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-63358627

A lot of questions.  And the answers given so far don't really add up.  Not that the answers are false (e.g. poor health, I'm certain that a man of his age is in poor health).  But that there is more going on than what is being said.

Bottom line is that for such an honored person to be physically removed from his assigned seat in a place of honor, and the current leader is just trying to ignore him as best he can, and no one is saying anything about it...

If a high ranking member of the CCP is able to be dragged away like that, what can we expect of protesters made up of "commoners"?

Edited by Carborendum
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