Russia-Ukraine conflict

[Just_A_Guy]

1 hour ago, mikbone said:

Yes & yes. 

Pretty sure Captain Moroni would have had something to say…

We have over 20K members in Russia and 11K members in what very likely is about-to-be-occupied Ukraine.  They are already under suspicion in their respective societies for affiliation with what would be seen as an American church.  The Church formally taking a side in this war, could well be a prison/death sentence for those Saints who are or are about to be under Putin’s power.

[mikbone]

1 hour ago, Just_A_Guy said:

We have over 20K members in Russia and 11K members in what very likely is about-to-be-occupied Ukraine.  They are already under suspicion in their respective societies for affiliation with what would be seen as an American church.  The Church formally taking a side in this war, could well be a prison/death sentence for those Saints who are or are about to be under Putin’s power.

Truely,

I read that over 1,800 Russians protesting Putin’s war have been arrested.  I hope that some of them were Latter-day Saints.

In the pre-mortal existence every one of us took sides in a war and fought.

If I was in the Ukraine, I would take up arms.  “In memory of our God, our religion, and freedom, and our peace, our wives, and our children.”

“The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.”

This has been proven over and over.

Edited February 27, 2022 by mikbone

[Just_A_Guy]

32 minutes ago, mikbone said:

Truely,

I read that over 1,800 Russians protesting Putin’s war have been arrested.  I hope that some of them were Latter-day Saints.

In the pre-mortal existence every one of us took sides in a war and fought.

If I was in the Ukraine, I would take up arms.  “In memory of our God, our religion, and freedom, and our peace, our wives, and our children.”

“The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.”

This has been proven over and over.

Agreed, on all counts.  I just also agree that the Church, institutionally, could inflict great harm on a substantial number of its members by being overly vocal about this.  The resistance in Kiev and elsewhere is heartening, but the odds are still heavily in favor of Russia winning this thing; and the Church needs to prepare to operate in whatever environment comes next.

[NeuroTypical]

We LDS folks ought to be engaged in defeating Russia.

If, however, you expect to see resistance fighters or military units organized through lines of the priesthood, with the church organizing supply lines or providing communications infrastructure or smuggling gasoline and mason jars into the Ukraine, you've been reading too much into the stories of Captain Moroni.

[mirkwood]

16 hours ago, mikbone said:

Yes & yes. 

Pretty sure Captain Moroni would have had something to say…

What do you think they should have said instead?

[carlimac]

Now what about this nuclear stuff? Is he bluffing? 

[LDSGator]

29 minutes ago, carlimac said:

Now what about this nuclear stuff? Is he bluffing? 

He could be. He’s evil and arrogant, not stupid. He knows that if he went down that road the rest of the world would counter with their own nukes though. 

[Anddenex]

41 minutes ago, carlimac said:

Now what about this nuclear stuff? Is he bluffing? 

I doubt he is bluffing, but at the same time it could be simply a threat that hopes will detour any conflict outside of Russia and the Ukraine. Simply put, Putin appears to be no different than the mind of Hitler. If Hitler had nukes, I'm pretty sure he would have used them.

Putin seems to be saying, if you attack I'm not going to lose without heavy damage on both sides. But I agree with @LDSGator, I'm hoping he realizes that if he did it would be a very bad decision as to then how many nations would then retaliate with greater force than he has.

[LDSGator]

20 minutes ago, Anddenex said:

I doubt he is bluffing, but at the same time it could be simply a threat that hopes will detour any conflict outside of Russia and the Ukraine. Simply put, Putin appears to be no different than the mind of Hitler. If Hitler had nukes, I'm pretty sure he would have used them.

Putin seems to be saying, if you attack I'm not going to lose without heavy damage on both sides. But I agree with @LDSGator, I'm hoping he realizes that if he did it would be a very bad decision as to then how many nations would then retaliate with greater force than he has.

My question is if Putin is suicidal or not. MAD worked because the Soviet Leaders did not want to die. MAD would not work if the leader had a death wish or simply didn’t care. 

[mikbone]

10 hours ago, mirkwood said:

What do you think they should have said instead?

Quote

 

We are heartbroken and deeply concerned by the armed conflict now raging. The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints has members in each of the affected areas and throughout the world. Our minds and hearts have been turned toward them and all our brothers and sisters.

We continue to pray for peace. We know that enduring peace can be found through Jesus Christ. He can calm and comfort our souls even in the midst of terrible conflicts. He taught us to love God and our neighbors.

We pray that this armed conflict will end quickly, that the controversies will end peacefully and that peace will prevail among nations and within our own hearts. We plead with world leaders to seek for such resolutions and peace.

The First Presidency

 

I'm not even sure why the above statement was made.  It is so vanilla that it might have been safer to not make a statement at all.

One of the roles of prophets is to call evildoers to repentance.  

Suggestions...

We condemn the evils of war and the sinfulness of violent aggression.  

We honor the righteous defense of life, liberty, and religion.

Edited February 28, 2022 by mikbone

[Carborendum]

I just wanted to see how this weathered this past week.

On 2/13/2022 at 4:21 PM, Carborendum said:

• Russians who would deny involvement whether it was true or not?

I think this was a no brainer.  Yup they lied.

Quote

• A Ukrainian President who is trying to keep their country calm and travel flowing?

Yup, he pretty much knew what was going to happen.

Quote

• A US President with tanking poll numbers willing to do ANYthing to distract the population from his miserable administration?

Yup.

In the tradition of Wag the Dog Clinton and Never let a good crisis go to waste Obama, he was using it as a distraction.  But apparently, he doesn't really care about his poll numbers.  He was distracting from the other stuff that happened this past couple of weeks.  And even though the media reported on it (for about 1% of their airtime) no one seems to be talking about the other stuff very much.

Quote

My guess is that there is something else really going on, and each of these guys has to put up some front.  Because nothing else is making sense.  And the "something else" is going to cause war anyway which is why they're building up and posturing.

The US, yes, a lot is going on. 

The war will end soon. Ansd we have much more stuff to come.  It's going to be a wild ride.

Russia? Interesting comment from Rubio about Putin.

BTW, do you love Elon Musk?

Edited February 28, 2022 by Carborendum

[MarginOfError]

On 2/27/2022 at 12:43 AM, Just_A_Guy said:

The resistance in Kiev Kyiv and elsewhere is heartening, but the odds are still heavily in favor of Russia winning this thing; and the Church needs to prepare to operate in whatever environment comes next.

Kiev is the Russian transliteration. I strongly encourage you use the Ukrainian pronunciation. 

 

On 2/27/2022 at 12:06 AM, mikbone said:

If I was in the Ukraine, I would take up arms.  “In memory of our God, our religion, and freedom, and our peace, our wives, and our children.”

It's just Ukraine.  Prepending "the" comes from the Russian custom of speaking of Ukraine as if it is property. 

 

Regarding nuclear threats

I suspect the reasons we are seeing sanctions and arms flow so rapidly at the moment is that there has been a fundamental shift in how the intelligence apparatus is viewing Putin.  Up until this point, I believe he's been viewed as a rational actor; that he's been taking calculated steps toward a goal of weakening NATO and the EU enough to make it possible for the Russian government to expand its sphere of influence further toward restoring the same order that existed at the height of the Soviet Union.  My general impression was that the Russian military hasn't posed a serious military threat (and the last week has confirmed that). Viewing Putin as a rational actor puts all the saber rattling into a frame where it was plausible to think that the goals were buffer zones and access to resources (The Black Sea has a lot of untapped natural gas, and Sevastopol is a valuable asset for the Russian Navy). 

Putin's speech last week justifying the invasion where he effectively declared that Ukraine had no right to exist outside of Russian control popped a few eyes open. We can debate whether or not Putin has been a rational actor previously (it's possible that he has) but that speech was not the speech of a rational actor. This seems personal. If you pivot your interpretive lens to use the irrational actor mode, this gets very scary. If the Ukrainian invasion is irrationally motivated, the amount of resources he is willing to commit to the project increase dramatically. 

The irrational actor lens explains a lot about why Germany changed their tune on SWIFT sanctions so rapidly. The sanctions imposed yesterday cut off access to a lot of the Russian governments financial reserves. While it will hurt the global economy, it is going to devastate and crush the common Russian citizen. Already, the ruble has fallen to its lowest point in history. This creates civil and domestic unrest in Russia, which has already been mounting since the invasion started. 

Putin seems to be executing a personal vendetta* and his grip on power is slipping domestically. If this is true, there isn't much left for him to lose, and he may lash out in very gruesome ways.  These could include massacring protestors in Russia, shelling residential targets in Ukraine, etc. At this point, yes, I am willing to believe that he would order a nuclear strike--although I suspect it's more likely that he strikes Ukraine than it is he strikes Europe or the US, but the probability of those events is still higher than zero.

This sounds frightening. At the same time, I'm not overly concerned**, and I would not panic. Putin might be willing to give the order, but I have great faith that the Russian soldiers responsible for executing the order would balk and refuse. I have faith that those that aren't completely disconnected from the rest of humanity will refuse to allow that level of atrocity to occur.

 

 

* my best guess is that, due to his extreme isolation during COVID and reducing his inner circle to just yes-men, he's become somewhat disconnected from reality. I also believe that he feels cheated because the USSR was dissolved before he was able to rise in power. He wants back what he missed out on, and no one has been willing to tell him that won't ever happen.

** I can't say as much for my kids.  My older child got curious and found that the military installation we live next to is on the list of first round targets. It's been fun trying to explain in age appropriate ways that if a full nuclear attack is launched, we won't survive.

[NeuroTypical]

2 hours ago, MarginOfError said:

Kiev is the Russian transliteration. I strongly encourage you use the Ukrainian pronunciation. 

https://www.tiktok.com/@mila.alien/video/7067298132471680302?_t=8Q8jqqWPCFa&_r=1

Y'all are welcome. 

[MarginOfError]

True story: I happened to run into my stake presidency yesterday (it was ward conference in the other ward).  I was talking to them about the events of the weekend and one asked if I used Kiev or Kyiv. I explained that I use Kyiv and said explained that most Ukrainians won't actually care which you use, "but I have strongly assertive opinions."

the following is a direct quote from my stake president: "Noooooo...you? assertive opinions? I've never seen that before."

 

[Just_A_Guy]

35 minutes ago, MarginOfError said:

True story: I happened to run into my stake presidency yesterday (it was ward conference in the other ward).  I was talking to them about the events of the weekend and one asked if I used Kiev or Kyiv. I explained that I use Kyiv and said explained that most Ukrainians won't actually care which you use, "but I have strongly assertive opinions."

the following is a direct quote from my stake president: "Noooooo...you? assertive opinions? I've never seen that before."

 

You can have my Chicken Kiev when you pry it from my . . . 

[MarginOfError]

9 minutes ago, Just_A_Guy said:

You can have my Chicken Kiev when you pry it from my . . . 

We won't be hearing from JAG anymore...in "unrelated" news, I have JAG's Chicken Kyiv

Edited February 28, 2022 by MarginOfError
typo

[mirkwood]

5 minutes ago, MarginOfError said:

We won't be hearing from JAG anymore...in "unrelated" new, I have JAG's Chicken Kyiv

Oh really?  We need to have a little chat...

[MarginOfError]

1 minute ago, mirkwood said:

Oh really?  We need to have a little chat...

....You're welcome?

[Grunt]

4 minutes ago, MarginOfError said:

....You're welcome?

I have room in my bunker.......

[MarginOfError]

2 minutes ago, Grunt said:

I have room in my bunker.......

This feels like a trap.

[NeuroTypical]

https://ksltv.com/485463/church-members-in-ukraine-express-gratitude-for-food-storage/?fbclid=IwAR2pcta4-LCw3ZER4-CLJxbNTVLKU2tYc55WG14vrrlNvCcaiIwlFRVpWuk

Church members in Ukraine express gratitude for food storage

Quote

On Sunday afternoon, the streets outside Andre’s home were empty, and so were the shelves at all the nearby grocery stores.

“For the past four days, the scripture, ‘If you prepare, you shall not fear,’ just comes up to my mind,” Andre said.

Twenty-three years ago, Andre and his mother joined The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. Ever since, his family has been slowly but surely preparing every needful thing.

“I never thought we would use it, but we had this food, and my mom would say, ‘You need to go get some food for my food storage,'” Andre said.

Dedication to preparedness that is now keeping Andre and his neighbors alive.

 

[mikbone]

Apparently, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko is a huge Hockey fan.

The sporting world is uniting against Putin and friends.  

Edited February 28, 2022 by mikbone

[mikbone]

On 2/26/2022 at 5:57 PM, mikbone said:

Anyone else notice that the official LDS statement on the war in Ukraine sounds like it was drafted by Switzerland?

My apologies.

 

Edited February 28, 2022 by mikbone

[Carborendum]

On 2/27/2022 at 2:23 PM, carlimac said:

Now what about this nuclear stuff? Is he bluffing? 

No.  And that is why I believe this war will be brief (comparatively speaking).

I believe the Russian citizens will have some form of transformation (perhaps a coup/revolution).  Regardless of how, Putin will be removed; Russia will pay Ukraine war damages.  And life will go back to prioritizing Transgender Rights, Green New Deal, Abortion rights, Dismantling the Constitution in favor of global governance. and all the other really important issues of the day.

But at least we won't be wearing masks anymore.

Edited March 1, 2022 by Carborendum

[mikbone]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov

I hope this hero’s story was widely shared in Russian society.  

Edited March 1, 2022 by mikbone