Mid-term election Predictions


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56 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

Mitch McConnel certainly thought so.  

 

But hey, maybe you know something the courts, the states, the electors, and the federal government don't.

Why does everyone feel the need to be so patronizing?

Good grief.

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I'm sorry.  I take my snark back.  Care to comment on the unanimity of the courts, the states, the electors, and the federal government?  Care to comment on Mitch McConnell's point about how '76, '00, and '04 were all closer elections than our last?

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12 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

I'm sorry.  I take my snark back.  Care to comment on the unanimity of the courts, the states, the electors, and the federal government?  Care to comment on Mitch McConnell's point about how '76, '00, and '04 were all closer elections than our last?

I'm not sure my making up explanations to wave off this or that would hold any more validity than all the explanations given to wave off evidence of suspicious election related activities. 

 

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On 5/11/2022 at 7:53 AM, Carborendum said:

The thing is that many people look at personality more than policy.  He speaks about bipartisanship.  Then he nominates a SCOTUS justice that was so far left that she refused to define what a woman was in front of the entire country.

People are so taken in by personality and words that they don't bother to look at the substance of the individual or the administration.  He's the exact opposite of Trump. And that is what some people mean when they say that Biden is moderate.

Trump did many extremely conservative things.  He said many off the wall things that most conservatives would disagree with.

Biden says many things that conservatives would agree with. I can only think of  one thing he's done that conservatives would agree with.  He voted for the partial-birth abortion act.  But then disagreed with SCOTUS when they supported the law.

Actual legislation/regulation/positions he's supported:

  • Affirmative Action
  • Abortion on demand
  • Gun-free zones
  • Supported the Patriot Act.  But so did nearly all of Congress.  Republicans went off the rocker on this one as well.
  • Open borders
  • Supported "don't ask don't tell" but then switched with the political tides.  Ditto for most LGBTQ issues.  Now he's all for it.
  • Green New Deal
  • Obamacare
  • Taxes (always sided with Democrats on any plan regarding taxes).
  • Govt handouts

If you pay more attention to the words than the actions, we understand why magicians are so successful.

The other thing we notice is that everyone tends to think of themselves as pretty close to center.  They have no idea where they actually are on the political landscape.  So, a person in the "center of the left wing" thinks that their position is center for the nation.  So, it's easy to think Biden is conservative by that standard.

 

Biden has traditionally been very Moderate and actually responsible for some rather non-liberal ideas before he became a VP. 

With the office of the President, the executive normally is utilizing behind the scenes negotiations in order to move votes and ideas.  Biden does not seem to be doing this (either that, or for some reason some of his older connections which usually agreed with him suddenly are NOT agreeing with him, and they are at odds, which would be very strange.  It would be like Trump suddenly fighting with Jared).  I feel he is catering to many of the Democrats on the Left currently, while using Manchin and Sinema as his fall guys.  This way he can put out things that sound good to how far left his party has gone, but KNOWS that in many of those instances...it won't matter.  It is not going to pass anyways.  It's politics.

Some of it is further left of Trump, but not exactly the far left either.  Some of the items he has actually done or passed...

My feelings on how they lie politically are more from an Independent view.  I could care less on how many of the Far Right feels about them as almost ANYTHING is seen as liberal by them these days.  The problem with both sides in many instances is they forget the middle actually exists, and in many cases, it is people like Me, who are independent, who actually choose between candidates and decide elections, not the ones that will vote Republican or Democrat no matter who is running.

So, some of the items Biden passed (as opposed to NOT passing)...

They vary in magnitude

Law passing Covid regulations (left leaning, as it gave out more stimulus money)

Infrastructure and Jobs Act (I see this one as neutral, as it is an investment into the roads, bridges, and other areas that needed a serious repair, also a lesser portion to build more broadband.  The Right seems to want to focus on the part of building infrastructure for electric vehicles at times [less than 2% of the actual bill], but even that is needed with how many electric vehicles are coming out these days and how many are projected to be on the roads in just 10 years).

Approved not having the government shut down and raising the debt limit.  (I view this as neutral).

Juneteenth and a National Holiday (okay, this one I was sort of like, what type of day is this at first, as it's more of a state specific holiday previously than something that was nationwide.  I view it as neutral as well.  Not actually a massive fan of it, but it is another Holiday...AND...commemorates the end of slavery.  In that light, I don't have a problem with any holiday commemorating the end of slavery...and though I am not a fan of how the push for the holiday came about, the holiday itself is neutral politically in my view.  I DO see how some racist individuals would be bothered by celebrating the end of Slavery though, but I wouldn't be claiming those types if I were on the Right OR on the Left).

Uighur Forced Labor Prevention Act (I actually see this as more of a Conservative item [it's not who passed it, but how it stands in regards to party thought in general].  It's sort of toothless though.

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More recent actions of his in 2022 are not as focused on the far left either.

In the past two months he has ordered

Enhancing the National Quantum  initiative advisory board (I see this is a more neutral item)

Strengthening Forests and communities (using land management and forest management to keep our Forest sustainable).  (i see this as a neutral item).

Strengthening Medicaid and the ACA (I see this as rather liberal, but I dislike the ACA to begin with in what it did to destroy my own health insurance which was great prior to the ACA and torn down BY the ACA.  I used to have everything covered 100%, now it only covers up to 80%).

Prohibiting new investement into Russia (I actually see the actions he's taken towards Russia as conservative leaning, despite what Trump may have done, and OTHER Republican President would have done very similar things to Biden in the past, while more liberal ones like Obama [as shown in 2014] or Clinton would have taken a less hawkish stance).

In fact, his entire stance on the Russia-Ukraine situation leans right in comparison to traditional Republican Responses and Traditional Democrat Responses over the past 30 years. 

If you go back to Johnson and Kennedy, it MIGHT resemble a more democrat thought process, but if you go further back to Roosevelt, it shows a distinct republican stance regarding Russia. 

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Most of Far Right's focus I think is on certain actions he took within the first five days of his Presidency and items proposed to Congress (but not passing) rather than what actually DID pass congress and what has happened.  Remember, he has a Majority (Slim as it is) in Congress.  Congress and the Executive are both Democrat.  This normally means, if they are SERIOUS about something, they can actually PASS that item.  If it's not passing, that's when you start looking at what type of political game they are playing. 

The FAR right is trying to play this up and treat independents as if we are idiots.  They tried to do that with the 2020 election as well.  To their anger, Independents just don't play ball with the Far Right no matter how much they rant and rave that everything and everything is a liberal plot.  They did a BAD job at convincing independents and they continue do to so when they focus on things like how "liberal" Biden is.

The things that are actually going to cause independents to vote Biden have more to do with what I see as an attempt to hold power rather than dealing with the actual issues that affect everyday Americans.  The rising prices of basic items such as housing, food, and fuel are what are going to be the Democrats foil in the next election.  This is having a BIG impact on people.  I have students who were doing well in regards to housing in the past wondering as they leave this year from school how they are going to afford rent next year.  I feel this could be a BIG problem for the school itself.  My wife was just telling me this past weekend how it is more expensive on our food budget these days. 

THIS is not an inherent right or left issue either.  Biden is being blamed, but honestly, I DON'T see Republicans actually doing ANYTHING to actually deal with the issue either.  They are hoping it continues so they can blame Biden (and I think that might work, but they are to blame as well since they are doing NOTHING to act upon it either and help solve the problem).  I see this is the issue of the midterms in general that, if pressed, the Republicans can be successful with.  It's not how far LEFT Biden is, but how inefficient he is with dealing with the REAL issues of today. 

I would LOVE the Republicans to be held responsible for their inaction as well.  Unfortunately, I do not see that happening.  They are playing politics also (which stinks in this situation, as the worse it gets for everyone, the more they probably feel Biden will be blamed).  Instead of actually doing anything to help relieve us, they are doing nothing (from my perspective).  The Democrats are being highly ineffective.  Their entire strategy for too long was to "Wish" that this doesn't happen and now are taking baby steps at trying to solve the issue as they still "wish" that everything is okay. 

I think Democrats might be idiots in this next election.  If the repeal of Roe vs. Wade occurs, I expect they will focus on that instead of the economy.  It matters to their voters and many independents, but the REAL situation is what is affecting people's basic needs and pocketbooks. 

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On 5/11/2022 at 9:57 AM, LDSGator said:

I feel it was the Clinton impeachment that really stepped it up. However, we were always divided as a country. Look at political cartoons from the Civil War. They were brutal. 

It is true that there have been division between people throughout US history (and this is the entire reason we have the House and the Senate situated as they are, it is a balance between the different views of representation between those who wanted it as a strict majority vs. those who wanted it as allowing those without large populations not to be trampled upon and have a voice as well.  It is an issue you STILL see today).

This division grows and shrinks.  It grew larger in the US right up until the 1860s, when the division grew so wide it caused a Civil War.  After the Civil War it shrunk quite a bit (possibly because they disallowed many who would be disagreeing from those in power, from being able to even run for power).  At the turn of the century it started to grow again and was pretty divided by the 1930s, but then World War 2 happened and strangely, the US division started to shrink again.  It was at a classic low by the 60s - early 80s.  In that time you see a LOT of Bipartisan agreement on various issues in much larger percentages than what you see in the past or the future.

The divisions started growing again in the early 80s (from what my current perspective, which, could always change with new ideas and information).  Then it REALLY started to take off after Obama took office.  By the time he left office the division was probably BIGGER than it was prior to the Civil War.  Today, it's even bigger than that (according to some political scientists).  In that light, the division is bigger today than it has ever been before, even when we were divided the most (Civil War). 

In that light, it's a miracle we aren't having a second Civil War currently.  I think that shows the extreme resilience of the Constitution (speaking for myself only) and how, as long as most are willing to play by the rules, we can have a peaceful revolution going on within our country without resorting to widespread war.

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1 hour ago, JohnsonJones said:

In that light, the division is bigger today than it has ever been before, even when we were divided the most (Civil War). 

I understand where you are coming from, even if I disagree. We were so divided back then that it led to an actual, legit war. We’re not there in 2022. 

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