Prognostication


Carborendum
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Well, I've got a fourth prediction after looking again at patterns.

  • I had said there would be some kind of global event that would shock the world prior to announcing an end to the pandemic.  The Ukraine War began shortly thereafter.
  • I predicted the recession.  This was pretty dang obvious to most who are paying attention.  But I'm predicting bad economic times (from late 2024 to early 2026 for recovery).  We'll see how that turns out.
  • I predict that the GOP will win a BARE majority that is small enough that the more liberal Republicans could vote for liberal policies and nullify the GOP majority in the house.  The Senate will be the same.  We'll see in about 6 months.  This is not so obvious since most people are predicting a shellacking of the Dems.  I don't think it will be.  I do believe that there will be a lot more local and state changes in parties.  We'll see.

Here is my next prediction:  The following three things are going to be interconnected.

Biden will not complete his term as President.  Either he will be removed (impeachment/25th Amendment) or he will not survive (assassination, natural causes) or he will simply resign due to health.  Something will happen.  He will not complete his 4 years.

Harris, of course, will take over.  But she will not be re-elected.

A huge change will occur around the time of my predicted economic recovery date.  I don't know what form it will take.  It could be a war.  It could be a civil war.  It could be an economic crash, the likes of which we've never seen before.  It could be famine.  It could be a crime spree worse than the BLM protests of recent years.  It could be something like the Ministry of Truth being more over-reaching than they ever expected.  But it will change the landscape of the USA as we know it.

Notice that I've predicted recovery around the same time as this "huge change" that also included the possibility of the economic crash.  It is interesting.  But when a MAJOR national/global even occurs, it can throw out the pattern that was used to predict the recovery date.  We'll see what that change is in a few years.

We probably won't have this board any more. But it will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

Stay close to the stakes of Zion.

Edited by Carborendum
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As I've mentioned before, I have an MBA and have been trained in what is essentially psychological warfare. 

This has allowed me to predict several things that have happened over the years, even if only in general terms. 

I've been telling everyone for some time now that we're looking at a period of great cultural, societal, and even legal upheaval as a lot of unpaid bills come due and the consequences of the last few decades' "social experiments" come about. 

...And yet there are people who are *still* taken by surprise when such-and-such event happens despite my warning that such a thing could occur. 

It's frustrating, I agree. 

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I just realized something.  About my big prediction for 2025 (+/-)...

The signs point to "Something Big".  But there is no reason it has to be a bad something.  I guess I projected.

It will be a reshaping.  But who's to say whether it is good or bad?  And as life's vicisitudes go, it is usually a bad thing that sparks something much better.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 5/19/2022 at 11:23 AM, Ironhold said:

As I've mentioned before, I have an MBA and have been trained in what is essentially psychological warfare. 

This has allowed me to predict several things that have happened over the years, even if only in general terms. 

I've been telling everyone for some time now that we're looking at a period of great cultural, societal, and even legal upheaval as a lot of unpaid bills come due and the consequences of the last few decades' "social experiments" come about. 

...And yet there are people who are *still* taken by surprise when such-and-such event happens despite my warning that such a thing could occur. 

It's frustrating, I agree. 

Interesting background.  While serving in the army during the Vietnam era I had my orders changed (from being attached to combat engineers to a army intelligence unit).  The particular unit I worked with specialized in psychological warfare in the combat theater and the interrogation of prisoners.  I would say I learned a lot about ideas and methods of Joseph Goebbels.  One particular statement from Goebbels has continued to haunt me.  He said the best means of propaganda that can change in mass societies  opinions of things is through entertainment - especially entertainment humor.   That anything a person will find entertaining (especially laugh at) they will eventually accept and embrace - often thinking that they have believes so all along. 

Though my personal career started out working for the defense department after a few years I turned to industrial automation, robotics and artificial intelligence.  I became an expert in manufacturing production and supply chain operations.  My career experience included the changes from warehousing operations to just-in-time supply chain management.   As powerful and economically beneficial just-in-time supply chain management is - it is also extremally fragile especially to supply chain necessities dependent on unstable or unfriendly governments.  I did several Y2K audits for a number of large "suppliers" (including government military supplies) and discovered that essential supplies in the USA are at great risk.

What I had not realized is that the entire transportation sector could so easily be disrupted.   I had thought that the economics of transportation was too strong - that the problem would be shortages of raw materials.  I was wrong in that transportation is currently the single most rising problem in supply chain shortages.  I had thought that in the last days the natural disasters would bring the great civilizations (Babylon) to their knees.   After what I have see to occur this year - I think the problem will be opposing catenations of human societies.  Not so much in any shortages of raw material but rather controls that political entities (rather than economic forces) exercise over others.   I am of the opinion that before this year concludes that half of the world population will be not just at risk but trending and desperate to survive - including the return of gas lines and rationing of many essential goods.   As divided as our society is - I do no have much hope that our needs in the USA will settle well - but then again, I am often surprised what USA citizens do in a crisis.  But if I was to consider our current entertainment and social trends - It looks to me that vengeance and violence (reparations - meaning getting what is needed by forcing other to provide or change) will be the solution thought to be most effective.  Much the same as with the Nehpites and Lamenites - which was the divisions of a nation rising from a single family.

 

The Traveler

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5 hours ago, Traveler said:

Interesting background.  While serving in the army during the Vietnam era I had my orders changed (from being attached to combat engineers to a army intelligence unit).  The particular unit I worked with specialized in psychological warfare in the combat theater and the interrogation of prisoners.  I would say I learned a lot about ideas and methods of Joseph Goebbels.  One particular statement from Goebbels has continued to haunt me.  He said the best means of propaganda that can change in mass societies  opinions of things is through entertainment - especially entertainment humor.   That anything a person will find entertaining (especially laugh at) they will eventually accept and embrace - often thinking that they have believes so all along. 

Though my personal career started out working for the defense department after a few years I turned to industrial automation, robotics and artificial intelligence.  I became an expert in manufacturing production and supply chain operations.  My career experience included the changes from warehousing operations to just-in-time supply chain management.   As powerful and economically beneficial just-in-time supply chain management is - it is also extremally fragile especially to supply chain necessities dependent on unstable or unfriendly governments.  I did several Y2K audits for a number of large "suppliers" (including government military supplies) and discovered that essential supplies in the USA are at great risk.

What I had not realized is that the entire transportation sector could so easily be disrupted.   I had thought that the economics of transportation was too strong - that the problem would be shortages of raw materials.  I was wrong in that transportation is currently the single most rising problem in supply chain shortages.  I had thought that in the last days the natural disasters would bring the great civilizations (Babylon) to their knees.   After what I have see to occur this year - I think the problem will be opposing catenations of human societies.  Not so much in any shortages of raw material but rather controls that political entities (rather than economic forces) exercise over others.   I am of the opinion that before this year concludes that half of the world population will be not just at risk but trending and desperate to survive - including the return of gas lines and rationing of many essential goods.   As divided as our society is - I do no have much hope that our needs in the USA will settle well - but then again, I am often surprised what USA citizens do in a crisis.  But if I was to consider our current entertainment and social trends - It looks to me that vengeance and violence (reparations - meaning getting what is needed by forcing other to provide or change) will be the solution thought to be most effective.  Much the same as with the Nehpites and Lamenites - which was the divisions of a nation rising from a single family.

 

The Traveler

If you were to take a look at a modern (2000s-plus) marketing program at your average business college, you'd be in tears for how much of it is essentially psychological warfare. The general idea is to get inside of a person's head, see what makes them tick, and use it against them in such a fashion that they're doing what you want them to do while still thinking it's their own idea. Everything from the arrangement of elements in an advertising copy to the arrangement of products in an actual store is designed to attack your grey matter and part you from your money. 

This overall tendency was noted as early as the 1980s (for example, Marvel Comics writer Larry Hama, himself a military veteran, made fun of this when he introduced the G. I. Joe team's psychological warfare expert in 1987), but it's really ramped up since then. 

Throw in the criminal justice training I've had and my 20+ years of experience dealing with cyber-bullies and other individuals online, and yeah... let's just say there are things I don't expect to be forgiven for. 

A big part of what I do now as a newspaper writer is break down for my readers what sorts of games companies and other entities are playing with them and how they can turn it around. 

 

 

As far as the transportation sector goes, this is another unpaid bill. 

For several generations now, kids in the US were made to dance to the drum beat of "college is for winners, trade school is for losers". To go to a trade school, even if that's where someone's aptitude lay, was seen as "failure" and could bring shame and stigma. In fact, there are college types who won't even talk to anyone who doesn't likewise have a college degree of their same level. As a result, we're desperately short-handed when it comes to many of the skilled trades, including heavy vehicle operators. There just aren't enough truckers, train conductors, forklift operators, aircraft pilots, naval crew members, and others to keep the supply lines properly running. 

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I have wondered about the phrase "death, disease, famine, and war" (the four horsemen).  It seems that disease, famine, and war (DFW) all caused death.  So, why was death its own horseman?

I figured that there were other forms of death by means other than DFW.  There's crime (murders), there's suicide, there's natural disasters.  But one thing I hadn't considered was that it was not talking about death of individuals, but death of nations or entire populations.

We know how nations are slated to be shrinking because of abortions.  But the simple fact that so many nations are having birth rates lower than replacement rates says that the overall population of  the earth will dwindle to virtually nothing in just a few generations.  In fact, it means that programs like social security will not be sustainable.  We've already recognized that in the US.  That's why our social security payouts have been indexed to later and later age categories.

Even if we avoid the biggest population killers in history (DFW) we are going to end up killing ourselves simply because of "fashion".  Is that too flippant a word?  I don't think so.  I grant that there are many who don't or can't have kids for very good reasons.  And for good reasons, some limit the size of their families.  But what happened in the past 60 years that shrank the average family size by so much among the entire population?  It was nothing but choice.  Nothing but fashion.

Who needs the four horsemen if the practices of the world make it so the world will no longer be peopled?

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2 hours ago, Carborendum said:

I have wondered about the phrase "death, disease, famine, and war" (the four horsemen).  It seems that disease, famine, and war (DFW) all caused death.  So, why was death its own horseman?

I figured that there were other forms of death by means other than DFW.  There's crime (murders), there's suicide, there's natural disasters.  But one thing I hadn't considered was that it was not talking about death of individuals, but death of nations or entire populations.

We know how nations are slated to be shrinking because of abortions.  But the simple fact that so many nations are having birth rates lower than replacement rates says that the overall population of  the earth will dwindle to virtually nothing in just a few generations.  In fact, it means that programs like social security will not be sustainable.  We've already recognized that in the US.  That's why our social security payouts have been indexed to later and later age categories.

Even if we avoid the biggest population killers in history (DFW) we are going to end up killing ourselves simply because of "fashion".  Is that too flippant a word?  I don't think so.  I grant that there are many who don't or can't have kids for very good reasons.  And for good reasons, some limit the size of their families.  But what happened in the past 60 years that shrank the average family size by so much among the entire population?  It was nothing but choice.  Nothing but fashion.

Who needs the four horsemen if the practices of the world make it so the world will no longer be peopled?

Populations are sustainable if the large majority of its citizens have just above 2 children (averages) - but if a society decides marriage (between child producing couples - mainly a man and a woman - by the older definition of a man and a woman) is not a priority (including adorations) then the number of children must increase proportionately in order for the society to remain stable.  Historically, societies that are unstable are more susceptible to death, disease, famine and war - even more so if such societies are affluent.  It should not take a math major to realize that according to the science of Darwin and evolution - that our current society is devolving rather quickly from a fittest society with strong probabilities to survive to a society scheduling itself for extinction.  

 

The Traveler

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Another one?

We know that the family has been and always will be in Satan's crosshairs.  We know that wokeness is trying to downplay how wonderful all the good things in life are because not everyone has them.  Further, they even encourage celebrating the not so wonderful things because we don't want to hurt anyone's feelings or shame them in any way.

The obvious conclusion is that people will no longer believe that "family values" is a good thing.  It is an oppressive thing.  The BLM organization decided that one of their stated goals was the destruction of the nuclear family.

PREDICTION: The media, Hollywood, politicians, and social media will become complicit in the cultural shift to shame people who want to have a fully intact family with a mother and a father.  

This is a no brainer.  It has been happening since I was a child.  It has only gotten stronger and more obvious with every passing year.  But I can see the brazen, obvious, intentional destruction of the family coming up over the horizon.

Edited by Carborendum
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11 hours ago, Carborendum said:

Another one?

We know that the family has been and always will be in Satan's crosshairs.  We know that wokeness is trying to downplay how wonderful all the good things in life are because not everyone has them.  Further, they even encourage celebrating the not so wonderful things because we don't want to hurt anyone's feelings or shame them in any way.

The obvious conclusion is that people will no longer believe that "family values" is a good thing.  It is an oppressive thing.  The BLM organization decided that one of their stated goals was the destruction of the nuclear family.

PREDICTION: The media, Hollywood, politicians, and social media will become complicit in the cultural shift to shame people who want to have a fully intact family with a mother and a father.  

This is a no brainer.  It has been happening since I was a child.  It has only gotten stronger and more obvious with every passing year.  But I can see the brazen, obvious, intentional destruction of the family coming up over the horizon.

As my kids get older I get far more involved with the school in both volunteer and elected positions.  I really strive to know what's going on at al levels.  One of the biggest wake-up calls I had was simply walking into the school library.  

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7 hours ago, Grunt said:

As my kids get older I get far more involved with the school in both volunteer and elected positions.  I really strive to know what's going on at al levels.  One of the biggest wake-up calls I had was simply walking into the school library.  

Obviously I'm a homeschooling advocate, but I have never considered myself a homeschooling evangelist. Until now. Homeschool your children. If you do a bad job, odds are it will still be better than what they get in public school. If you put any reasonable amount of effort and care into it, it will be a much better experience than what the public schools are likely to give.

 I come from a family of teachers, so I have given this matter a lot of thought. My recommendation is not made lightly. Protect your children above all else. Homeschool them.

Edited by Vort
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37 minutes ago, Vort said:

Obviously I'm a homeschooling advocate, but I have never considered myself a homeschooling evangelist. Until now. Homeschool your children. If you do a bad job, odds are it will still be better than what they get in public school. If you put any reasonable amount of effort and care into it, it will be a much better experience than what the public schools are likely to give.

 I come from a family of teachers, so I have given this matter a lot of thought. My recommendation is not made lightly. Protect your children above all else. Homeschool them.

I teach for a virtual charter which many consider to be homeschool-esque (don't get to pick the curriculum and I mentioned an upcoming potential issue elsewhere but you get to keep your kids home and you get to work with little old me.).

I've always been a supporter of public schools and I would love to continue to be so, but it's becoming harder. If you ask me what to do about all those kids who don't have a good home life or real alternative options, I don't know what to tell you. It's a tragedy that I wish someone would figure out how to solve. I have a number of kids in my school who really shouldn't be schooled at home, the parents are so out to lunch or just plain abusive.

But I can't think of many more options. We're at a point where a decision must be made. If you can't trust your local school, you have to pick something else and we may just have to stop worrying about the more unfortunate kids for the time being if we can't directly help them ourselves.

The way I see it, there's a lot more education options that ever before, or at least made more accessible. We have the internet. You can look up anything on the internet, and a lot of it is free. Many states are becoming more reasonable in their expectations for homeschooling. Social media has made it easy to find homeschooling co-ops and mentors near you. Heck, with the right amount of being neighborly and haggling, you can even find a co-op or even another house you can drop your kid off at if you work/totally suck at teaching. Private schools are getting comfortable in offering possibilities for middle-class families. Some states have voucher options. 

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Another...

The Famines have already started.  We're going to enter an era where it is not just one product or one type of food. 

Within the next 6 months we'll see:

1) Grocery chains going out of business.

2) Walmart will have entire aisles of bare shelves in the food section.  At the sme time, all the first world shopping items will he overstocked.

3) Basic commodities, especially, will be out or very scarce.  What we saw happen with baby formula will happen with milk, eggs, bread, fruits and vegetables, and meat.  Seafood will probably disappear.

Get your food storage NOW.

Gasoline will follow.

**

So, we have Disease, Famine.

War??? Yes, Ukraine/Russia.  But I feel like the end times conditions means all nations (practically speaking).  And we're not there yet.

Death??? Again, what type?  People die all the time.  I think we have yet to see masses of people dying for inexplicable reasons.  So, what is that about anyway?

Edited by Carborendum
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  • 1 month later...

Now I'm coming across a criss-cross in predictions.  I'm predicting an end to the Russian invasion some time soon.  This could be between Sep to Dec.

Based on the timeframe alone, I suspect that the war will end in just enough time for Biden to claim credit prior to the November election.  Whether the media will go along with it is up in the air because They're already beginning to speak against him.

If they continue with the Biden bashing, they will impeach him and remove him from office by the end of January.  Or other alternatives which achieve the same end, like allowing him to "retire gracefully."

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20 hours ago, Carborendum said:

Now I'm coming across a criss-cross in predictions.  I'm predicting an end to the Russian invasion some time soon.  This could be between Sep to Dec.

Based on the timeframe alone, I suspect that the war will end in just enough time for Biden to claim credit prior to the November election.  Whether the media will go along with it is up in the air because They're already beginning to speak against him.

If they continue with the Biden bashing, they will impeach him and remove him from office by the end of January.  Or other alternatives which achieve the same end, like allowing him to "retire gracefully."

If the West had intervened directly during the early part of the war - say, deploying commandos to destroy bridges and intelligence operatives to confuse Russian movements - then the war would have long since been over with. Russia has *always* had significant trouble with their logistics systems, as noted when that 40+ mile of Russian combat vehicles ground to a halt in-transit because they all ran out of fuel, and so anything to further disrupt their supply lines would have likely given Ukraine the permanent advantage in the conflict. But instead, everyone was too afraid of the war becoming a hot global conflict and so sat it out until it became obvious that matters would soon be a war of attrition. At this point, so long as Putin himself is in power, he'll keep going no matter how many Russian citizens die in the process. The economic sanctions? China and India have no qualms about buying all that Russian oil. 

As far as Biden himself goes, I've tried to explain repeatedly to people that right now a very large majority of folks are more concerned about economic issues (there are *plenty* of negative indicators still) than they are about abortion and gun control, and that Hispanic voters are rapidly growing frustrated with the Democrats as a party. Unless the economy enters what most people regard as "recovery" before the elections then the electorate can reasonably be expected to lash out at the Democrats since they're the party in power. We could easily see the GOP or a GOP / Independent coalition take control of Congress, and if they do "President Kamala Harris" is the only thing that would likely keep them from demanding a full evaluation of Biden's mental health given everything that's been going on.

I've linked to Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs before, but the gist of it is that the combination of rising cost-of-living (food, gas, et cetra), ongoing supply chain shortages, and continued upheaval as companies try to recruit workers and match hours, is such that a great many people are barely meeting their survival needs, and when people are suddenly thrust into a position where they're barely surviving, they tend to panic, lash out, and generally not be entirely rational. That's why the political party in power tends to be blindly blamed for recessions and depressions, and why folks don't always ask questions whenever anyone comes forth proclaiming a solution. 

So yeah, if we are still functionally in a recession come November, kiss Roe vs. Wade goodbye. 

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1 hour ago, Ironhold said:

As far as Biden himself goes, I've tried to explain repeatedly to people that right now a very large majority of folks are more concerned about economic issues (there are *plenty* of negative indicators still) than they are about abortion and gun control, and that Hispanic voters are rapidly growing frustrated with the Democrats as a party. ...

I've linked to Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs before...

I completely agree. 

My point about Biden claiming some political points is more about how Biden et. al. see the political game.  I don't believe their paradigm is accurate. 

Biden has been blaming all economic woes on Russia.  So, if the war is over, he hopes that he'll be able to "credibly" state that the economy will begin recovery now.  And historically, the fourth quarter has shown a recovery (no matter how small).  And it may actually be a positive GDP growth this year.  It just won't be by much.

It's all about the spin.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 8/10/2022 at 5:31 PM, Carborendum said:

I find myself falling into apocalyptic doom and gloom again.

Why are all three superpowers all going down when the rest of the world is going up out of the recession?

According to the powers-that-be, a frail, mentally confused old man won the election over a loud, unpredictable, and business-savvy person who most other nations didn't want to risk messing with. 

Russia and China thought twice before trying anything because they didn't know how Trump would react. They don't have that same concerns with Biden. 

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1 minute ago, Ironhold said:

According to the powers-that-be, a frail, mentally confused old man won the election over a loud, unpredictable, and business-savvy person who most other nations didn't want to risk messing with. 

Russia and China thought twice before trying anything because they didn't know how Trump would react. They don't have that same concerns with Biden. 

That doesn't really answer the question about economics.

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1 minute ago, Carborendum said:

That doesn't really answer the question about economics.

Two words:

Economic warfare.

Just take a look at what's going on with Russia and Ukraine.

These two countries by themselves account for well over half the global wheat harvest, while Russia's Gazprom is the number 1 oil and natural gas supplier for much of Eastern and Central Europe. 

By invading Ukraine, Russia is starving the world out because Ukrainian wheat can't get through and no "respectable" nation wants to buy Russian wheat. Russia is also threatening to leave several European nations literally out in the cold this winter by cutting off their supply of oil and natural gas if they don't let him do as he pleases. 

So even though Putin is only rolling tanks into one country, he's cowed dozens of others just by the prospect of making it hard, if not impossible, for them to live. 

McDonald's hopping a plane out of Russia looks pretty weak by comparison to what might well be one of the Four Horsemen getting ready to go. 

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15 minutes ago, Ironhold said:

Two words:

Economic warfare.

I understand the term.  But I don't see how that explains the condition I outlined in the OP.

15 minutes ago, Ironhold said:

Just take a look at what's going on with Russia and Ukraine.

That explains Russia going down since the war began.

(remember I'm asking about why Russia, China, and the US are all going down at the same time.)

But that doesn't explain why the US and China have been going down at around the same timeframe when no economic sanctions have been levied against them -- at least I'm not aware of any.

China just took a big step against the US.  But that was Friday.  We've been going down since January (or possibly December).  And I'm not aware of any sanctions against China yet.

Then the other part of the question was why the rest of the world doesn't seem to be hit as hard.  In many developed nations, their economies are actually going up.

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36 minutes ago, Carborendum said:

I understand the term.  But I don't see how that explains the condition I outlined in the OP.

That explains Russia going down since the war began.

(remember I'm asking about why Russia, China, and the US are all going down at the same time.)

But that doesn't explain why the US and China have been going down at around the same timeframe when no economic sanctions have been levied against them -- at least I'm not aware of any.

China just took a big step against the US.  But that was Friday.  We've been going down since January (or possibly December).  And I'm not aware of any sanctions against China yet.

Then the other part of the question was why the rest of the world doesn't seem to be hit as hard.  In many developed nations, their economies are actually going up.

Actually going up?

Are you sure about that?

I'm seeing red flags all across the horizon, and only *some* are being waved by college-age radicals. 

Japan's birth rate is so far below the replacement rate that the nation is literally in danger of being depopulated if they can't turn things around, and it's already destroying their economy. Many other First World nations are suffering from a critically low birth rate, and it's beginning to effect their economies as well. 

Meanwhile, a number of nations all over the world decided to take their nuclear reactors off-line before actually *ensuring* that they had alternative means of power generation in place, so they've just crippled large sectors of their economies. 

Canada is coming apart from the inside because Trudeau is showing how totalitarian he is and the populace is turning against him. 

Et cetra. 

We're in for some pretty bad times unless people start getting back to basics and comprehending how the world works.

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1 hour ago, Ironhold said:

Actually going up?

Are you sure about that?

https://countryeconomy.com/gdp/

Economies over $1Trillion.

Quote

Quarterly GDP at market prices 2022

Date Quarterly GDP Quat. GDP Growth (%) Quat. GDP Annual Growth (%)

UK

2022Q1 $657,503M 0.8%

8.7%

Euro-Zone

2022Q2   0.7% 4.0%
2022Q1 $3,600,631M 0.5% 5.4%

Germany

2022Q2 $895,755M 0% 1.5%
2022Q1 $1,037,641M 0.8% 3.6%

France if flat

Japan shows loss.

Spain

2022Q2 $300,893M 1.1% 6.3%
2022Q1 $356,620M 0.2% 6.3%

Italy

2022Q2   1.0% 4.6%
2022Q1 $516,029M 0.1% 6.2%

Australia

2022Q1 $334,523M 0.8% 3.3%

Brazil

2022Q1 $347,689M 1.0% 1.5%

Canada

2022Q2   1.1% 4.8%
2022Q1 $423,290M 0.8% 2.9%

China Shows loss

Indonesia

2022Q2   1.0% 5.6%
2022Q1 $254,830M 1.2% 4.9%

Iran has not reported 2022

India

2022Q1 $684,243M 0.8% 4.1%

South Korea

2022Q2   0.7% 2.9%
2022Q1 $351,229M 0.6% 3.0%

Mexico

2022Q2   1.0% 1.6%
2022Q1 $270,590M 1.0% 1.8%

Netherlands

2022Q1 $254,857M 0.4% 6.6%

Russia

2021Q3 $320,413M -0.8% 3.8%
2021Q2 $293,782M 3.2% 7.6%
2021Q1 $275,401M 0.7% -0.4%

Some countries have not yet reported their 2nd quarter...

No, I can't be sure.  But this is the available data.  I have strong doubts that the numbers in Russia are accurate.  But the rest seem to be on the up and up.

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  • 2 months later...

Government:

It looks like Repubs have control of the House by a bare majority.  I'm projecting 221 (above the 218 majority needed) for Republicans.  They may get as much as 225.  But still not a strong majority.

The Senate is now going to be firmly in the Dems corner (51/49). There's still a glimmer of hope for Nevada to result in a 50/50 split, but it isn't very likely in my mind.

Bottom line: Government will still keep running along as usual. 

Keep tabs on how Senate Democrats talk about Biden and Kamala.  This will be the signal that the Dems are willing to remove Biden from office.  But they may actually believe that Kamala is even more incompetent than Biden at this point.  Yes, really.

Economy:

So, we're seeing the bounce in the stock market I spoke of earlier.  It is fairly common for the fourth quarter to show the "Christmas bump."  But It certainly isn't as high as it normally is.  That's because it isn't because of Christmas.  I don't know if Christmas will have much of an economic effect at all this year.

Our bump we're seeing over the last couple of days is due to a lower than expected inflation report.  That may have the effect of the Fed hitting the pause button on the raising of interest rates.  That will allow the market to breathe.  However, it is probably short lived.  

The reason we have inflation so high in the first place is only partly to do with a run-away economy with ultra-low interest rates.  A great deal of it has to do with the government's record deficit spending.  No other borrower in the world will generate the amount of debt that the Federal government has been creating in the past two years.  It generally takes two years for large sums of money to infiltrate into the economy enough to affect inflation.  Well, it has been two years.  And now it is coming home to roost.

Lowering interest rates (or maintaining them as is) will have the short term effect of this bump we're seeing.  But it does not do much for encouraging commerce.  At first, we were only getting back to "normal" rates.  Now we're historically higher than normal.  When we start seeing the rates we saw back in the 70s, we'll know we're really in for it.

I believe that if we can get a free-market President in there next election, we will begin to see things turn around.  But it will take at least a year for people to stop panicking, and a full two years before people breathe again.

Good luck to us all.

Edited by Carborendum
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