Prognostication


Carborendum
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Guest Godless
26 minutes ago, Carborendum said:

Keep tabs on how Senate Democrats talk about Biden and Kamala.  This will be the signal that the Dems are willing to remove Biden from office.  But they may actually believe that Kamala is even more incompetent than Biden at this point.  Yes, really.

I can't believe that this is still a thing. This is the first time since Bush (during wartime) that Congress hasn't solidly flipped during a president's first midterm. Whether or not Biden is directly to credit for that* is irrelevant. Dems are going to rally around him and take their victory lap. Replacing him with Kamala was never on the table, not two years ago and definitely not now. It's nothing more than another right-wing conspiracy theory.

 

*I think this could go either way, honestly. I think SCOTUS nuking Roe and states taking advantage of it was a huge motivator for Dems, as well as a lot of pro-choice independents and maybe even some moderate Republicans. I also think the student loan relief plan was a good motivator for Gen Z and Millennial voters, and that's something Biden can take direct credit for.

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4 hours ago, Godless said:

I also think the student loan relief plan was a good motivator for Gen Z and Millennial voters, and that's something Biden can take direct credit for.

In the same sense that Neville Chamberlain can take credit for having postponed hostilities with Germany.

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17 hours ago, Godless said:

I can't believe that this is still a thing. This is the first time since Bush (during wartime) that Congress hasn't solidly flipped during a president's first midterm. Whether or not Biden is directly to credit for that* is irrelevant. Dems are going to rally around him and take their victory lap. Replacing him with Kamala was never on the table, not two years ago and definitely not now. It's nothing more than another right-wing conspiracy theory.

 

*I think this could go either way, honestly. I think SCOTUS nuking Roe and states taking advantage of it was a huge motivator for Dems, as well as a lot of pro-choice independents and maybe even some moderate Republicans. I also think the student loan relief plan was a good motivator for Gen Z and Millennial voters, and that's something Biden can take direct credit for.

 

Well, point blank, most of the Republicans did nothing but show their ignorance.

They complained about the economy and blamed Biden for it showing they have NO IDEA what is going on outside of the United States and how World global economics actually affect the US economy as well.  It is also a reason the US dollar has been unusually strong over the past year in regards to the Euro and various other currencies.  The US is actually weathering the inflation and other economic impacts MUCH BETTER than many others, and it shows.

Rather than doing any actions to try to help, the Republicans have tried to hinder helping the American Public the entire way over the past few months. They THOUGHT that it would reflect badly on the Democrats...the problem...people are NOT SO ignorant as they believed.  We can SEE the votes and SEE them hijacking and trying to stop things that would help...so why would we blame the Democrats normally?

It doesn't mean all Republicans are in this boat.  I am glad Kemp won in Georgia for example. 

It means that they need to look at others beyond their own party.  They are catering to their base, but if you only cater to your base it doesn't win you Congress or the Presidency. 

BUT the TWO biggest whammies in this election which I think hurt Republicans...

By being anti-mask and anti-vaccine more Republicans have died than Democrats.  That probably effected the numbers.  It is hypothesized that this is ONE MAJOR reason Georgia Democrats have made such major inroads over the past few years...because those narrow numbers suddenly are even more narrow now.

I couldn't believe Georgia was purple...but a recent radio show I heard while driving actually went into this aspect and it made sense.  The numbers who have passed from Covid and the numbers related to the elections and how close they've suddenly become in certain places in Georgia seem strikingly related.  If more Republicans die than Democrats...than yes, the numbers are closer. 

And number two...and the BIGGEST reason the Republicans won, but won smaller than expected in my opinion...

A great majority of the Republican base today are an older group of individuals.  The Republican plan to kill or reduce Social Security and to kill or reduce Medicare came to light.  Telling your base that you want to take away money and healthcare is NOT a good way to win their support.  That seemed like one of the dumbest political moves I've ever seen.  It's a miracle the Republicans didn't get murdered at the mid-terms with that strategy. 

Best way to NOT lose the next Presidential election if you are the Republican party...

#1 - Find a way to help keep SS going...no matter what.  You do NOT want to make your base REALLY just start not voting for you.  If they don't want to vote against you, but also not for you so they don't show up...that's...well...that's a lot of what probably happened this go around. 

Instead...State that this plan of yours to kill Social security was stupid and you aren't going to do such things...because...when half your base is over 65...telling them that the funds they paid into SS for their entire life was futile...probably NOT a good idea. 

#2 - Instead of simply blaming the Democrats as your main platform...come up with a platform which actually is constructive and people can see that it could be helpful...or at least a good idea.  For that matter, perhaps coming up with a platform...any platform stronger than...Democrats are bad...could probably do wonders. 

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Guest Godless
2 hours ago, JohnsonJones said:

 

Well, point blank, most of the Republicans did nothing but show their ignorance.

They complained about the economy and blamed Biden for it showing they have NO IDEA what is going on outside of the United States and how World global economics actually affect the US economy as well.  It is also a reason the US dollar has been unusually strong over the past year in regards to the Euro and various other currencies.  The US is actually weathering the inflation and other economic impacts MUCH BETTER than many others, and it shows.

Rather than doing any actions to try to help, the Republicans have tried to hinder helping the American Public the entire way over the past few months. They THOUGHT that it would reflect badly on the Democrats...the problem...people are NOT SO ignorant as they believed.  We can SEE the votes and SEE them hijacking and trying to stop things that would help...so why would we blame the Democrats normally?

It doesn't mean all Republicans are in this boat.  I am glad Kemp won in Georgia for example. 

It means that they need to look at others beyond their own party.  They are catering to their base, but if you only cater to your base it doesn't win you Congress or the Presidency. 

BUT the TWO biggest whammies in this election which I think hurt Republicans...

By being anti-mask and anti-vaccine more Republicans have died than Democrats.  That probably effected the numbers.  It is hypothesized that this is ONE MAJOR reason Georgia Democrats have made such major inroads over the past few years...because those narrow numbers suddenly are even more narrow now.

I couldn't believe Georgia was purple...but a recent radio show I heard while driving actually went into this aspect and it made sense.  The numbers who have passed from Covid and the numbers related to the elections and how close they've suddenly become in certain places in Georgia seem strikingly related.  If more Republicans die than Democrats...than yes, the numbers are closer. 

And number two...and the BIGGEST reason the Republicans won, but won smaller than expected in my opinion...

A great majority of the Republican base today are an older group of individuals.  The Republican plan to kill or reduce Social Security and to kill or reduce Medicare came to light.  Telling your base that you want to take away money and healthcare is NOT a good way to win their support.  That seemed like one of the dumbest political moves I've ever seen.  It's a miracle the Republicans didn't get murdered at the mid-terms with that strategy. 

Best way to NOT lose the next Presidential election if you are the Republican party...

#1 - Find a way to help keep SS going...no matter what.  You do NOT want to make your base REALLY just start not voting for you.  If they don't want to vote against you, but also not for you so they don't show up...that's...well...that's a lot of what probably happened this go around. 

Instead...State that this plan of yours to kill Social security was stupid and you aren't going to do such things...because...when half your base is over 65...telling them that the funds they paid into SS for their entire life was futile...probably NOT a good idea. 

#2 - Instead of simply blaming the Democrats as your main platform...come up with a platform which actually is constructive and people can see that it could be helpful...or at least a good idea.  For that matter, perhaps coming up with a platform...any platform stronger than...Democrats are bad...could probably do wonders. 

I think all of the factors you mentioned are true, although I would also give some credit to Stacy Abrams and others who worked to mobilize black voters for helping to make Georgia purple.

Another element that I've seen discussed by people who follow these trends more closely than I do: Hispanic voters. The GOP took losses in AZ and lost the House district in Texas that covers the HEAVILY Hispanic Rio Grande Valley. This is being blamed on aggressive border messaging. Believe it or not, a lot of Hispanic Americans support strong border security, which is why their support isn't always automatic for Dems. But GOP messaging around the border has gotten increasingly aggressive and at times flat-out dehumanizing. Hispanic voters who came here legally (or whose ancestors did so) don't want people coming here illegally. But they're also tired of seeing people from their ethnic background constantly demonized and blamed for crime, drugs, and human trafficking. I think a lot of them finally hit a breaking point with the GOP rhetoric around the border.

There's also been some finger-pointing within the GOP in Michigan, where Gretchen Whitmer won reelection and the state legislature was flipped blue, giving Dems a legislative "trifecta". The GOP focused a lot of their messaging on gender issues (trans athletes, drag shows, etc) and got their butts handed to them. Some MI Republicans think the messaging should have been more focused on crime and the economy, the former being given credit for flipping some NY seats red.

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Guest Godless
22 minutes ago, Carborendum said:

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Lol!

Just because Biden CAN take credit for something doesn't mean he necessarily deserves it (like Reagan "ending the Cold War"). In this case, he had a metaphorical gun to his head. He relieved student debt because it was the electorally prudent thing to do, not because it was the morally right thing to do. 

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5 hours ago, Godless said:

GOP focused a lot of their messaging on gender issues (trans athletes, drag shows, etc) and got their butts handed to them

This election cycle was more about Trump, election deniers,  and abortion. The voters basically told us what anti-Trumpers have been saying for years. Trump is way more of a detriment in the long term. It’s validating for the anti-trump Republicans like me. 
 

The republicans who distanced themselves from Trump (Kemp, Sununu in NH, Desantis) won. 

It also could be cataclysmic for your party unless the economy improves. Gender issues mean nothing if you can’t feed your family. Hillary Clinton in 2016 can tell you about that. 
 

Finally, it wasn’t all great for your side. Florida went solidly red, Texas stayed red. Wisconsin kept Johnson, Beto the rockstar got slapped in the face again. You also barely beat someone in Arizona for governor that you should have absolutely crushed. You guys also struggled in New York because of COVID restrictions and party arrogance. 

Edited by LDSGator
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Guest Godless

Another issue that may heat up in future local elections: marijuana. With Maryland and Missouri voting to fully legalize MJ, it is now fully legal in 18 states (and due to GOP confusion, THC edibles/seltzers are legal in Minnesota). States that haven't legalized, many of them solidly red states, are going to be under increasing pressure to do so. 

Another electoral note about Minnesota, my current state of residence: our third party in local elections has historically called themselves the "Legal Marijuana Now" Party, and it's generally believed that the votes they siphon in local elections would otherwise go to Dems. With our state senate flipping blue, full legalization is probably on deck by 2024. That could have major ramifications for elections in state-level and congressional districts (like mine) where the third party votes are often larger than the GOP margin of victory. Minnesota is currently blueish-purple. Full legalization could turn it solidly blue.

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Whelp!

With all the hullaballoo about FTX, I had to get out of crypto.  Luckily, I made some money off it before everything fell apart.  I have no idea where it's all going now.  Some crypto is going up, some down.  It's a mad scramble for now.  I'll take a look again when things settle down.

In the meantime, it looks like that semiconductor bill is finally beginning to kick in.  But I don't see it as a long term boost.  It's still uncertain.

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On 11/13/2022 at 1:52 PM, Godless said:

Another issue that may heat up in future local elections: marijuana. With Maryland and Missouri voting to fully legalize MJ, it is now fully legal in 18 states (and due to GOP confusion, THC edibles/seltzers are legal in Minnesota). States that haven't legalized, many of them solidly red states, are going to be under increasing pressure to do so. 

Another electoral note about Minnesota, my current state of residence: our third party in local elections has historically called themselves the "Legal Marijuana Now" Party, and it's generally believed that the votes they siphon in local elections would otherwise go to Dems. With our state senate flipping blue, full legalization is probably on deck by 2024. That could have major ramifications for elections in state-level and congressional districts (like mine) where the third party votes are often larger than the GOP margin of victory. Minnesota is currently blueish-purple. Full legalization could turn it solidly blue.

Looks like the GOP will keep the house. 

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27 minutes ago, Vort said:

I suppose this is good news, given the alternative. I wish I had reason to feel excited or hopeful about it.

I used to think it was always better to win than to lose, especially in politics. Now, I’m not sure I was right. It the economy goes under it’ll cost the democrats dearly. 

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So, I finally got down to brass tax and got a much more detailed look at the DOW vs past patterns.  Very interesting  how these are similar but different.

This first image is our latest movements vs the Depression.  The Red is the depression era graph.  The purple and cyan is our era at different scales.  Purple shows us going down for a bit longer before recovering.  They cyan shows that we're in recovery already.  But neither of these is a good match.

Post 4 of 4 below shows the best match. But I wanted to show you how these patterns lined up (or rather DIDN'T line up) with other notable times in history.

Depression.thumb.JPG.0c95e1b0ff2ae249a7164a5ec8ee930e.JPG

Edited by Carborendum
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This second image is against the prosperity graph from Reagan to the present.  As you can see the .com bubble and Enron (green) coincide with COVID (purple).  This graph also seems to indicate that we are in recovery.  The Dow crash of '08 also coincides with his year's crash. If this were the only thing available, it could be a reason to think we're in recovery.  But you can see it doesn't match well.

image.thumb.jpeg.9eca76c37c8af982e5afdb52c25e3340.jpeg

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The third graph is against the great recession (Orange). 

  • The purple scale seems to indicate a recovery.  But the Bush era recovery from the .com bubble is not as high as the Trump era of prosperity.
  • The blue scale lines up rather nicely all around.  Unfortunately, at this scale, it becomes self-referential.  It doesn't help at all.
  • The cyan is the least favorable result. It indicates that we will have to go down below 17,000 (DOW) before we recover.  I sure hope that's not what it will take. But the graphs does line up rather nicely.

image.thumb.jpeg.a3d7bf84a8c6828582d419b61e173219.jpeg

Edited by Carborendum
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The fourth and final graph is against the 70s stagflation era.  And since Biden is quite reminiscent of Carter both in leadership and economic competence, it makes sense.  The greatest deviation was between COVID vs the Kennedy Slide of 1962.  Obviously, COVID was much deeper than the Kennedy slide.  But it really is a very close match.

This seems to show that we will see two more troughs before recovery can begin.  At this scale, we'll hit rock bottom around mid 2026.  However, the recovery from the great recession began about 5 or 6 months after Reagan took office.  If the recovery back then was due to Reagan era policies, then it is entirely possible that with an economics/finance/business savvy president (and team) inaugurated in '25, we could see a recovery by fall of that same year.  So, it is a question of the DOW hitting 24,000 vs 20,000.

But let's face it, we're not going to see a recovery during the current administration. 

And if he gets re-elected, or someone with similar tax and spend and anti-economics policies gets in office, it could extend for years more.  As they're going now, another four years could mean a global economic meltdown.

image.thumb.jpeg.4f9986a3cfa6e84f76b7dc863116031c.jpeg

Edited by Carborendum
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I just remembered something.

Late last year / early this year, I projected that professional wrestling promotion All Elite Wrestling would purchase rival promotion Impact! Wrestling, noting that a crossover story arc between the two had very similar vibes to what was going on between the World Wrestling Federation and Extreme Championship Wrestling before the former bought the latter.

Well, in April, All Elite Wrestling did, indeed, purchase... Ring of Honor, a third wrestling promotion. Turns out that the TV deal Impact! has going with AXS Television was enough to keep them going during the Covid lockdown, but Ring of Honor's finances were primarily structured around in-person attendance for their various shows (tickets, merchandise, et cetra) rather than their TV deal (only an hour a week and only on Sinclair Broadcasting - owned stations) and so the lockdown left them teetering on the edge of bankruptcy. 

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  • 1 month later...
Guest Godless

I wouldn't say that I've been proven right just yet. I think next year should provide some clarity there.

 

But.....

 

I haven't yet been proven wrong either.

 

20221128_214311.thumb.jpg.6d95bcdce3666267bc79b03a7e3b1fac.jpg

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It is inevitable that the House will impeach Biden for his "Influence Peddling."

Listen very carefully to how the Senate seems to be responding to this.  If it seems that they are faltering at all, we can expect to see Biden removed from office.  But not until after the 21st.

Harris will become President for a while.  At least long enough to appoint a new VP.  But she will also be removed from office because, c'mon...

I believe at that point, we will reach a very real Societal Crisis.

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Guest Godless
7 hours ago, Carborendum said:

It is inevitable that the House will impeach Biden for his "Influence Peddling."

Listen very carefully to how the Senate seems to be responding to this.  If it seems that they are faltering at all, we can expect to see Biden removed from office.  But not until after the 21st.

Harris will become President for a while.  At least long enough to appoint a new VP.  But she will also be removed from office because, c'mon...

I believe at that point, we will reach a very real Societal Crisis.

And Democrats spent 4 years convinced that Trump was going to be removed via 25A. 🙄

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10 hours ago, Godless said:

And Democrats spent 4 years convinced that Trump was going to be removed via 25A. 🙄

Read a bit more carefully.  I'm not convinced of anything.  I'm saying that IF it is to happen, we'll see the signs coming before it happens.  And IF it does happen, then some other dominos will follow.

Edited by Carborendum
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  • 1 month later...

Now, natural gas.

The price of natural gas has gone down to record lows right after record highs.  If you want to make some money off of this, put some natural gas in your paper portfolio.

By every common measure, NG should be at highs right now.  It has been lowered by government manipulation.  Be careful of which vehicle you use.  The one I've chosen will remain low for the next few weeks, possibly few months.  This gives me plenty of time to wait for the "falling knife".  I may miss my chance.  But if so, oh well.  You never want to put all your eggs in one basket anyway.

I suspect by this fall or winter, it will be at least back to average.

 

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Anyone taking bets on WWIII?

The US is gearing up for war with China.  It may be "just in case".  Or it could be, "Yeah, it's happening."

Zelensky said we're going to have US troops fighting with them. (Prediction? Warning? Demand?)

The media's 180 on the COVID lab leak is saying that they are not going to pull punches to salvage our relationship with China.

Taiwan just received a whole lot of materiel from the US to defend against the persistent Chinese fly-overs.

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