Rising cost of food


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On 1/20/2023 at 7:52 PM, Manners Matter said:

Something occurred to me a couple years ago. Since parents should have a year's supply for every person under their roof, when the kid marries, they pass a year's supply on to the kid. If they're in a small apartment, it might take some ingenuity to store it but better to be safe than sorry.

Ideally, this is absolutely true. The problems with this system include the food supply not necessarily being evenly divisible—how do you give your 18-year-old his 200-pound share of your wheat berries?—and the newly adulted's lack of place to store anything like a year's supply of food. Plus, a viable supply of food needs to be constantly used and rotated, meaning that cafe breakfasts and pizza dinners need to be kept to an absolute minimum. (Which would not have been an issue for myself or those of my generation whom I knew; we didn't have the money to eat out more than once every month or two, which made our dates exercises in creativity.)

Like homeschooling and farming, keeping a year's supply of food is more a lifestyle than a hobby or mere interest.

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My favorite LDS commentary on food supply of all time.

“We urge all Latter-day Saints to be prudent in their planning, to be conservative in their living, and to avoid excessive or unnecessary debt. Many more people could ride out the storm-tossed waves in their economic lives if they had a supply of food and clothing and were debt-free. Today we find that many have followed this counsel in reverse: they have a supply of debt and are food-free.”

Are We Prepared?

Thomas S Monson

Sept 2014 Liahona First Presidency Message

 

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On 1/19/2023 at 6:26 AM, Backroads said:

I once saw a study I've never been able to find since about the psychological benefit for children of keeping food in the home. You could be eating out for all meals all the time and yet it would still be reassuring to the kid to be able to see food in the home.

A fool and his money are soon parted is the old saying.  I cannot believe the fast food and restaurant prices.  It is like 500% more expensive than buying food and cooking it yourself and eating the left overs.

Want to give yourself a raise?  Stop eating out.  (The wise will then start buying themselves some food storage.)

Edited by Still_Small_Voice
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9 hours ago, Still_Small_Voice said:

A fool and his money are soon parted is the old saying.  I cannot believe the fast food and restaurant prices.  It is like 500% more expensive than buying food and cooking it yourself and eating the left overs.

Want to give yourself a raise?  Stop eating out.  (The wise will then start buying themselves some food storage.)

I noticed that the cost difference between fast food and fast casual (or moderate restaurant) is getting smaller and smaller.  I spent $80 at Chick-fil-A for my family's lunch.  I spend about $60 at Olive garden for me and my wife with left-overs for another day.

The difference per person-meal was really just the tip.

Edited by Carborendum
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On 1/16/2023 at 4:59 PM, Still_Small_Voice said:

Bill Gates now owns 242,000 acres of farmland.  I hope the Church is buying up a lot of farm land. Who knows, maybe there will be a lot of church members called on missions to work farmland?  This may help with future food shortages.

I can't do a ton, but I wouldn't mind being called on a mission to do that, as long as I can get my retirement or my housing and food is also covered.

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I just read a report about Farm Action's belief regarding the price of eggs.

https://farmaction.us/2023/01/19/farm-action-calls-for-ftc-to-investigate-record-high-egg-prices/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

They have asked that the FTC look into farmers jacking up the price of eggs.  While the Avian Flu has had a "mild" impact on prices.  It does not fully justify the rise in prices we've seen lately.  There are other causes.  The claim is that the major egg corporations have entered into a cartel type of arrangement to collusively jack up egg prices "without any legitimate business justification," says Farm Action.

My concern is not whether or not this is true.  It may be.  It may not be.  The question is whether government involvement is the way to fix it.

So, if farmers raise the price of eggs as some sort of collusive effort (which is a bit of a stretch) then we just need to make sure that the government does NOTHING.  And things will sort themselves out.  Eventually, they will notice that their sales are going down just a bit.  Their profit margins will stabilize to a market level (by definition).  Who's to say whether they have been underpriced or not.  Maybe this is the fair market value.  Maybe they are a little high and they'll go back down to twice where they were simply because of inflation.

If they really are higher than they "should be" then we will have self-correcting mechanisms.  Private farmers will raise more chickens themselves.  We only have 6 currently.  But we're going to get another 10 as soon as they become available this season.  And that is what happens when people are just given freedom to do things for themselves.

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2 hours ago, Carborendum said:

If they really are higher than they "should be" then we will have self-correcting mechanisms.  Private farmers will raise more chickens themselves.  We only have 6 currently.  But we're going to get another 10 as soon as they become available this season.  And that is what happens when people are just given freedom to do things for themselves.

I have already ordered 20 more, and they should arrive late next week. We have also ordered an incubator in case our hens aren't feeling broody when we need them to.

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Went to Wal-Mart earlier today. Managed to score three roasts - 2.15 to 3 pounds - on markdown at $3 off the previous day's price. 

I pretty much dropped everything to get them. They weren't cheap even with the discount, and I had to forego a few purchases, but meat like that can't be ignored. 

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On 1/27/2023 at 4:03 PM, Ironhold said:

Went to Wal-Mart earlier today. Managed to score three roasts - 2.15 to 3 pounds - on markdown at $3 off the previous day's price. 

I pretty much dropped everything to get them. They weren't cheap even with the discount, and I had to forego a few purchases, but meat like that can't be ignored. 

The holiday hams are dropping in prices around us, to the point of awfully good deals. However, husband and I aren't communicating, so now we have like 6 hams we got for less than 99 cents a pound.

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Guest Godless
On 1/27/2023 at 11:21 AM, Carborendum said:

I just read a report about Farm Action's belief regarding the price of eggs.

https://farmaction.us/2023/01/19/farm-action-calls-for-ftc-to-investigate-record-high-egg-prices/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

They have asked that the FTC look into farmers jacking up the price of eggs.  While the Avian Flu has had a "mild" impact on prices.  It does not fully justify the rise in prices we've seen lately.  There are other causes.  The claim is that the major egg corporations have entered into a cartel type of arrangement to collusively jack up egg prices "without any legitimate business justification," says Farm Action.

My concern is not whether or not this is true.  It may be.  It may not be.  The question is whether government involvement is the way to fix it.

So, if farmers raise the price of eggs as some sort of collusive effort (which is a bit of a stretch) then we just need to make sure that the government does NOTHING.  And things will sort themselves out.  Eventually, they will notice that their sales are going down just a bit.  Their profit margins will stabilize to a market level (by definition).  Who's to say whether they have been underpriced or not.  Maybe this is the fair market value.  Maybe they are a little high and they'll go back down to twice where they were simply because of inflation.

If they really are higher than they "should be" then we will have self-correcting mechanisms.  Private farmers will raise more chickens themselves.  We only have 6 currently.  But we're going to get another 10 as soon as they become available this season.  And that is what happens when people are just given freedom to do things for themselves.

I can't find the source now, but I read something recently about large corporate egg "farms" recording record profits, much like the gas companies last year. I'm curious if your stance on egg prices and the free market also translates to the oil/gas industry.

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4 hours ago, Godless said:

I can't find the source now, but I read something recently about large corporate egg "farms" recording record profits, much like the gas companies last year. I'm curious if your stance on egg prices and the free market also translates to the oil/gas industry.

We should be very careful about what record profits represent.  One of the largest costs of providing petroleum products is in research and development of new drilling sites.  In essence 90% of research and development of new drilling sites have been shut down.  The problem is – and most conservatives do not seem to understand this problem – that the most profitable drilling (which is a type and kind of mining) is associated with fracking.  This equipment is expensive to operate and maintain but is being mothballed which is expensive but even worse much more expensive to un-mothball – plus the highly skilled workers needed to operate the equipment have moved on.

Executives that I have talked to in the petroleum industry (both gasoline and natural gas) have told me that even with the so called record profits that to restore the petroleum industry to pre-mothball levels will use up all the profits and require additional subsidies.  In addition, because of mothballing equipment and losing the skilled labor force that it would currently take 10 or more years to restore the industry. 

All this causes me to wonder what would happen if in the next couple of years we ended up in a war with Russia and/or China - how could we possibly even feed our own citizen population? 

 

The Traveler

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15 hours ago, Godless said:

I can't find the source now, but I read something recently about large corporate egg "farms" recording record profits, much like the gas companies last year. I'm curious if your stance on egg prices and the free market also translates to the oil/gas industry.

I had to think about this for a while.  My knee-jerk reaction was "Of course!  I believe in the Free Market!"  But then it occurred to me that strange things have been happening in the oil & gas market that would give me pause.  Then it occurred to me that some things were happening in the egg market as well. 

So I took some time to consider the similarities and differences.

In the chicken market, the government was mandating elimination of millions of chickens due to "suspected infection."  No actual proof*.  No testing.  No studies.  Just mandating it because some bureaucrat decided that some flocks would be vulnerable.  In some cases, a single chicken in a region "showed symptoms" without any cultures taken, without any tests being done to confirm.  Because of that single suspected chicken, entire regions of farmers had to cull their chickens.  This basically puts them out of business... unless...

Many farmers have farms in multiple areas of the country specifically to separate them in case of contagion.  When they have to cull entire locations, that is a monumental blow to the company.  The high prices we're seeing is not just normal operating costs (which I think the activist group I linked to was observing).  The high prices are to help them re-build their flocks that they lost through government mandate.

In the meantime, lots of people can get backyard chickens for themselves and make decision on whether they want to do this permanently, or if they want to go back to hiring out the work to a factory farm.  So far, in our household we're doing both.

As farmers replace their flocks (probably over the course of a year) and supply chain issues are abated (also manufactured by government) then prices will reach an equilibrium.  That new price will be higher than we've seen due to inflation (also manufactured by government).

In the oil & gas market, there have been several things that have been driving oil prices.

  • Ukraine war. (government)
  • Inflation. (government)
  • Supply chain (government)
  • Making up for losses during the shutdown (e.g.Exxon had a $20+ billion loss during the shutdown, they still haven't fully recovered from that despite the reports of windfall profits).(government)
  • Extra taxes(government)
  • Shift to green energy(government)
  • OPEC+(government)
  • Higher demand (Companies made more money because they're selling more)
  • Poor statistical comparisons.  They're comparing the profits today with the profits during the shutdown and calling it "windfall" profits.
  • Lack of leases from Biden adminstration.(government)
  • Worldwide oil shortage (due to several of the reasons above, including government).

There are some more, but this is a sufficient list as it is.

So, if you're asking whether I believe the government should leave the markets alone and let them fix themselves, well, that's easy for eggs.  Not so easy for energy.  But in the end, it would be better if government got themselves out of the market and let market forces work it out.

The key is COMPETITION.  If there is some sort of monopoly or cartel, etc. then we are lacking competition.  If that is the case, then government should get involved to the point necessary to prevent monopolistic practices.  If it is open competition, then the market price will be what the market price will be.  And we, the consumers, will determine what that fair price is -- by definition.

*Just to be more complete:  There were actual cases of bird flu found in the US.  And that is what started the scare.  But MANY farms were ordered to cull based on "suspicion" alone.

Edited by Carborendum
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  • 1 month later...

I just went to the Korean market for the first time in about 6 months.  We've been rather high on work and short on cash lately.

  • Kim chee has nearly doubled in price since the last jar I bought.
  • Food at their food court has gone up about 30% to 40%.
  • Ginseng:
    • Two of the most common versions of ginseng tea are not available. It's all being gobbled up by South Korea.  And they haven't had shipments of it to the US in a VERY long time.
    • The more expensive stuff is there.
      • Prices have not changed.  Demand has dwindled a bit.  But they still need to make a profit. 
  • Their stuffed rice sweet cakes are about 20% higher.
  • Ramen has gone up about 30%.

Yup, we're seeing inflation alright.

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A brother at church today mentioned that our local church cannery has been much more busy than normal lately, presumably from people worried about what's ahead. This kind of caught me by surprise. Obviously there is much commotion in the world but that's not exactly a new thing. Is there something in particular that's driving people to get their food storage? It's a good thing of course, I'm just wondering why now? I would have thought right after covid maybe but when I was there a year and a half ago it was pretty quiet.

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22 minutes ago, laronius said:

Is there something in particular that's driving people to get their food storage? It's a good thing of course, I'm just wondering why now? I would have thought right after covid maybe but when I was there a year and a half ago it was pretty quiet.

Let me know if you figure it out.  I got tired of being consistently ghosted when trying to set up appointments to teach preparedness to the families of the ward.  So I don't even try anymore.  They know who to ask if they want the information.

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On 3/11/2023 at 8:35 AM, Carborendum said:

I just went to the Korean market for the first time in about 6 months.  We've been rather high on work and short on cash lately.

  • Kim chee has nearly doubled in price since the last jar I bought.
  • Food at their food court has gone up about 30% to 40%.
  • Ginseng:
    • Two of the most common versions of ginseng tea are not available. It's all being gobbled up by South Korea.  And they haven't had shipments of it to the US in a VERY long time.
    • The more expensive stuff is there.
      • Prices have not changed.  Demand has dwindled a bit.  But they still need to make a profit. 
  • Their stuffed rice sweet cakes are about 20% higher.
  • Ramen has gone up about 30%.

Yup, we're seeing inflation alright.

Our local Asian market has ramen up almost 40%, and almost doubled the price of their sauces and citrus juices like Yuzu. And don't get me started on the price increase of Mochi and Almond Cookies.

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3 hours ago, scottyg said:

Our local Asian market has ramen up almost 40%, and almost doubled the price of their sauces and citrus juices like Yuzu. And don't get me started on the price increase of Mochi and Almond Cookies.

Come to think of it, I guess ramen was about 40% or more. But the boxes I got were marked down a bit.

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On 3/11/2023 at 8:35 AM, Carborendum said:

I just went to the Korean market for the first time in about 6 months.  We've been rather high on work and short on cash lately.

  • Kim chee has nearly doubled in price since the last jar I bought.
  • Food at their food court has gone up about 30% to 40%.
  • Ginseng:
    • Two of the most common versions of ginseng tea are not available. It's all being gobbled up by South Korea.  And they haven't had shipments of it to the US in a VERY long time.
    • The more expensive stuff is there.
      • Prices have not changed.  Demand has dwindled a bit.  But they still need to make a profit. 
  • Their stuffed rice sweet cakes are about 20% higher.
  • Ramen has gone up about 30%.

Yup, we're seeing inflation alright.

I've taken up making our own kimchi. I'm surprised at how pricey the good pepper flakes are getting. 

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19 minutes ago, Carborendum said:

I'd be interested in hearing how your efforts pay off.

We're technically still in the experimental phase trying to find that one recipe everyone in the house loves, but it's been a lot of fun and none of the batches have been bad. 

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