SETI, Extraterrestrials, UFO’s and G-d (Devine beings)

[Traveler]

I thought to make this thread as broad as possible.  Perhaps it should be several threads, but my thought is in making this discussion as open as possible.  It seems that throughout the history of mankind that there has been a search for something above and beyond our experiences of life and intelligence here on earth.  And yet for all the searching there has never been anything that is scientifically definitive, found.  There are many accounts of contacts.  Some of religious context reaching across the entire gambit of religious ideologies, some of intellectual speculations and pursuits and a lot of what seem to be speculations of fantasy and magic with no base whatsoever in reality.  Much of the fantasy has even reached into the bounds of theatrical science in efforts to explain and make sense of the unexplainable.

I have been involved in many discussions with my atheist science colleagues about their abilities to have great faith in theatrical unproven (often ridiculous) physics and science and yet carry such a strong disbelief in G-d and lack of credibility in any religious thinking.  But this goes far beyond science.  Even within the religious communities I have been utterly amazed with religious illogical “beams” that are swallowed to compensate for some religion of choice and yet what logical “motes” are rejected from the thinking of others deemed to be contrary to the religion of choice.   Perhaps what amazes me most is the inability to openly discuss the spectrum of ideas without getting angry or upset with differing ideas.  I have concluded for myself that the only reason that I get angry, or upset is because I am being influenced by a dark spirit of contention and therefor out of touch with the divine intelligence of light to which I think I aspire.   I also assume that others are as influenced by dark spirits when angered.

With all this background – I will throw out a few ideas and see where other ideas can take this thread.

Back in 1964 a Russian astronomer suggested a scale for measuring a civilizations capability.  It is now called the Kardashev scale.  The Kardashev scale is not lateral but somewhat exponential.  He suggested three levels:  The first is a civilization able to control and utilize the resources of a planet.  The second is a civilization able to control and utilize the resources of a sun.  The third is a civilization able to control and utilize the resources of a galaxy.

It is thought (as I agree) that the best we have achieved here on earth is level .6 – which is a inferior civilization to a level 1 civilization.  Because we have never discovered anything beyond our current civilizations on earth there is an assumption that there are intellectual barrier that must be overcome in order to progress upward along the scale.  It is believed that currently we are sitting at one such barrier.   It is believe that the industrial revolution brought us to a level .5 and that the development of electromagnetic energy has brought us to a level .6.  A new technology is necessary to take us to the next level of .7.

I have theorized that there are two possibilities in new technology that can take us to a next level.  The first is the development of efficient nuclear fusion.  We seem to be on the threshold of this for decades but never able to break through to a viable tech.  The second is the ability to utilize more efficiently the solar radiation naturally reaching our earth. 

Some explanation of this second possibility.  Our sun releases an enormous amount of energy.  Beyond the heat and light, the sun gives off an enormous amount of electrical energy.  This is because for every nuclear event a free electron is released.  The sun releases what we call solar wind which is negatively charged particles.  Because our planet has a magnetic shield the solar winds are forced towards the north poll (which is the cause of the aurora borealis or northern lights).  In addition, the solar winds cause electrical currents to flow like rivers through the crust of the earth.  These currents are enormous and, in many places, cause magnetic north on a compass to divert or even appear to reverse.  Nikola Tesla claimed that there are ambient currents constantly being transmitted in our atmosphere.   The problem with these sources of electrical energy is basically maintaining a common ground.

My purpose in bringing all this up is because I speculate that we are in an ideological state of stagnation.  Even politically we seem to be devolving in reverse and with no breakthrough on the horizon may even be on the threshold of destroying our civilization – at least here in the USA.  It is theorized that the reason we cannot find intelligence beyond our earth is that civilizations reaching barriers like our current .6 may tend to destroy themselves as we currently appear to be doing.  Some theorize that without advancement (eternal progression) societies may destroy themselves.  Perhaps this is, at least in part why there is so much confusion in dealing with reality in our current upcoming generation. 

 

The Traveler

[Still_Small_Voice]

I have heard other intelligent people say that the world wide Internet is now like a modern day Tower of Babel.  It says in Genesis chapter 11:  "... nothing will be restrained from them, which they have imagined to do." 

Is this the point that we have reached now in our societies?  We know that the natural man is an enemy to God and is carnal, sensual and devilish.  Mankind is able now to do many things and almost nothing is being restrained from the wicked in pursuing the imaginations of their hearts.

[mikbone]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale

We are currently @ 0.73, we would have to ramp up energy production by a factor of 4 to hit 1.0

I dont see us stagnating.  And, the following graph displays a linear progression.

Also

Musk just launched Starship successfully this AM.  

Cold fusion might be just around the corner.  Battery tech will continue to improve.  

God is a Kardeshev VI being.

https://kardashev.fandom.com/wiki/Type_VI

He likely didnt get there in one jump.  Stepwise progression.  Line by line.

Edited April 20, 2023 by mikbone

[Vort]

An interesting topic. My utter disbelief in UFOs-as-outer-space-aliens is on record. I do have additional thoughts on these and related topics, however.

1 hour ago, Traveler said:

I thought to make this thread as broad as possible.  Perhaps it should be several threads, but my thought is in making this discussion as open as possible.  It seems that throughout the history of mankind that there has been a search for something above and beyond our experiences of life and intelligence here on earth.  And yet for all the searching there has never been anything that is scientifically definitive, found.  There are many accounts of contacts.  Some of religious context reaching across the entire gambit of religious ideologies, some of intellectual speculations and pursuits and a lot of what seem to be speculations of fantasy and magic with no base whatsoever in reality.  Much of the fantasy has even reached into the bounds of theatrical science in efforts to explain and make sense of the unexplainable.

I believe that religious yearnings are built into the human psyche. I believe that UFOlogy and much of the science and pseudoscience worship we see in the world today is an expression of such inborn yearnings.

1 hour ago, Traveler said:

I have been involved in many discussions with my atheist science colleagues about their abilities to have great faith in theatrical unproven (often ridiculous) physics and science and yet carry such a strong disbelief in G-d and lack of credibility in any religious thinking.  But this goes far beyond science.  Even within the religious communities I have been utterly amazed with religious illogical “beams” that are swallowed to compensate for some religion of choice and yet what logical “motes” are rejected from the thinking of others deemed to be contrary to the religion of choice.   Perhaps what amazes me most is the inability to openly discuss the spectrum of ideas without getting angry or upset with differing ideas.  I have concluded for myself that the only reason that I get angry, or upset is because I am being influenced by a dark spirit of contention and therefor out of touch with the divine intelligence of light to which I think I aspire.   I also assume that others are as influenced by dark spirits when angered.

I think you're right. I also think that such nonsense is ultimately a battle of egos. Pride is at the root of such foolish contentions.

1 hour ago, Traveler said:

With all this background – I will throw out a few ideas and see where other ideas can take this thread.

Back in 1964 a Russian astronomer suggested a scale for measuring a civilizations capability.  It is now called the Kardashev scale.  The Kardashev scale is not lateral but somewhat exponential.  He suggested three levels:  The first is a civilization able to control and utilize the resources of a planet.  The second is a civilization able to control and utilize the resources of a sun.  The third is a civilization able to control and utilize the resources of a galaxy.

It is thought (as I agree) that the best we have achieved here on earth is level .6 – which is a inferior civilization to a level 1 civilization.  Because we have never discovered anything beyond our current civilizations on earth there is an assumption that there are intellectual barrier that must be overcome in order to progress upward along the scale.  It is believed that currently we are sitting at one such barrier.   It is believe that the industrial revolution brought us to a level .5 and that the development of electromagnetic energy has brought us to a level .6.  A new technology is necessary to take us to the next level of .7.

I have theorized that there are two possibilities in new technology that can take us to a next level.

My own opinion is that civilization is not closely correlated with technological sophistication. We today are more technologically sophisticated than any previous society in all history that we have record of. We certainly have impressive electronic toys, some of them being exceptionally useful in organizing and managing such a huge body of people. But at the level of being a civilized people, where individuals are valued and given place among others for the health and well-being of the whole, I think we are not the best humanity has produced. I suspect there are many past civilizations, some perhaps lost to history, that were far more "civilized" than us in some such important respects.

1 hour ago, Traveler said:

 The first is the development of efficient nuclear fusion.  We seem to be on the threshold of this for decades but never able to break through to a viable tech.

This will not happen in our lifetimes, and I suspect may never happen. There are significant engineering challenges to this, perhaps so significant that it will simply not be profitable to work through the problems. I think this is not unlikely. If nuclear fusion as a manageable energy source ever does come about, it will most likely be through some breakthrough in physics that allows us to "cheat the system", something on the order of so-called cold fusion.

1 hour ago, Traveler said:

The second is the ability to utilize more efficiently the solar radiation naturally reaching our earth.

Some explanation of this second possibility.  Our sun releases an enormous amount of energy.  Beyond the heat and light, the sun gives off an enormous amount of electrical energy.  This is because for every nuclear event a free electron is released.  The sun releases what we call solar wind which is negatively charged particles.  Because our planet has a magnetic shield the solar winds are forced towards the north poll (which is the cause of the aurora borealis or northern lights).  In addition, the solar winds cause electrical currents to flow like rivers through the crust of the earth.  These currents are enormous and, in many places, cause magnetic north on a compass to divert or even appear to reverse.  Nikola Tesla claimed that there are ambient currents constantly being transmitted in our atmosphere.   The problem with these sources of electrical energy is basically maintaining a common ground.

A couple of points:

• The net ion flux from the sun is zero charge. Otherwise, the sun would steadily become more positively charged, a situation which could continue only a very, very short while before the sun itself would be forcibly ripping electrons away from the inner planets and every other physical body in close proximity.
• I have never heard of solar winds causing crustal currents in the earth. If such currents exist, it's not obvious to me how we could harvest them. I also wonder what effect such hypothetical sun-caused crustal currents would have on the earth's biome and overall functioning.
• The amount of energy flowing from the sun as electromagnetic radiation (light, radio waves, gamma rays, etc.) would certainly far exceed whatever power might come from ion flux or induced crustal currents. I would think it would be vastly cheaper and more efficient to build huge space mirrors to focus light onto a generator.

1 hour ago, Traveler said:

My purpose in bringing all this up is because I speculate that we are in an ideological state of stagnation.  Even politically we seem to be devolving in reverse and with no breakthrough on the horizon may even be on the threshold of destroying our civilization – at least here in the USA.  It is theorized that the reason we cannot find intelligence beyond our earth is that civilizations reaching barriers like our current .6 may tend to destroy themselves as we currently appear to be doing.  Some theorize that without advancement (eternal progression) societies may destroy themselves.  Perhaps this is, at least in part why there is so much confusion in dealing with reality in our current upcoming generation.

I agree, and I believe that our only hope is in Jesus Christ. I do not believe that advancing technology will ever, ever, ever save us. If the natural man is not reigned in, such technology will simply make our bondage that much more horrific.

As for why other nearby intelligent civilizations haven't contacted us: Consider that mankind has existed on earth for about 200,000 years (scientific estimates of early anatomically modern humans). If life has existed for about two billion years—a conservative estimate—modern humans have been around for about one ten-thousandth of the existence of life on earth. That's about 0.0001, or 0.01% of the existence of life on earth. We have had radio communication technology for roughly a century. That means radio communications have come from earth for 100/2,000,000,000 = 1/20,000,000 = 0.00000005 = 5x10^-8 = 0.000005% of the time life has existed on earth.

In that time, radio waves have traveled up to 100 light-years from the earth. Let's look ten times further out. Estimates for the number of stars within 1000 light-years of earth range in the area of 100,000 stars. There's some question here, and that number could range an order of magnitude either direction. Surely the vast majority of these stars are inhospitable to the development of life, either because they're too cool (tiny Goldilocks zone) or too hot (and thus too short-lived), or in an area where other conditions such as local radiation from nearby systems simply preclude stable DNA. Let's just accept 100,000 as a reasonable, if very optimistic, estimate for our local 1000-light-year-radius bubble.

So let's make some guesses here.

• Let's suppose that life arises on every planet (star system) where conditions are right for life, and that conditions exist appropriate for life to arise on one star system in ten. (This is surely a vast overestimate, by the way, but let's just go with it.)
• On how many of those star systems will intelligent life arise, that is, life capable of modifying its surroundings in such a way that it produces technological advancement? I don't know. Neither do you. Let's guess 10% (again, probably a vast overestimate).
• Now, how many of those intelligent races eventually develop sophisticated technology? Guess: 10%.
• Of those that develop sophisticated technology, how many specifically develop electromagnetic communications? Guess: 10%.
• How long does such a civilization last, either until it is destroyed (from without or from within) or until it moves beyond the need for radio-based communications? Guess: 100,000 years.
• From how far can such a radio signal be isolated from the background noise and identified as an artificial signal? Guess: 1000 light-years.

In my view, all of these guesses are enormous overestimates except perhaps the last one, the 1000 light-year guess. I could imagine solar-system-sized telescope arrays that might be able to resolve signals beyond 1000 light-years. But at this point, the situation becomes moot. People living more than 1000 light-years from us will never be able to engage us in useful conversation. A 1000-year time lag is just too long. So we can suppose that we're limited by a normal human lifespan to something much less than 1000 light-years if we're talking communication. Therefore, using 1000 years is, again, a vast overestimate.

100,000 potential stars * (1 star system with life)/(10 stars) * (1 intelligent life system)/(10 systems with life) * (1 technological system)/(10 intelligent life systems) * (1 radio tech system)/(10 technological systems) = 10 potential candidate systems with intelligent life that uses radio communications within 1000 light-years of earth.

That's ten. Within 1000 light-years. As an extremely optimistic guess.

Now, it took two and a half billion years for radio-using creatures to arise on earth. How long will it take on other star systems? If the civilizations last 100,000 years (that was our guess) and such sophisticated life forms first became possible, say, a billion years ago (probably another optimistic guess, but at this point it's just that, a guess), there looks to be a one in ten thousand (one hundred thousand divided by one billion) chance of overlap between another intelligent radio-transmitting system and our own. Assuming our greatly optimistic ten potential star system candidates. that would appear to give us an optimistic guess of about one chance in a thousand that we might actually hear communication from an alien intelligence.

This is a brief explanation of why I think SETI is such a waste of time, money, and effort.

Edited April 20, 2023 by Vort

[LDSGator]

15 minutes ago, Vort said:

My utter disbelief in UFOs-as-outer-space-aliens is on record

On that same record, I completely agree with you. 
 

Would you say most physicists share our views? 

[mikbone]

I totally believe in UFOs and Aliens.

Hebrews 13: 2 Be not forgetful to entertain strangers: for thereby some have entertained angels unawares.

 

"Now this Enoch God reserved <un>to himself that he should not die at that time and appointed unto him a ministry unto terrestrial bodies of whom there have been but little revealed. He is reserved also unto the Presidency of a dispensation, and more shall be said of him and terrestrial bodies in another treatise. He is a ministering Angel, to minister to those who shall be heirs of salvation... Many may have supposed that the doctrine of translation was a doctrine whereby men were taken immediately into the presence of God and into an Eternal fulness, but this is a mistaken idea. Their place of habitation is that of the terrestrial order and a place prepared for such characters, he held in reserve to be ministering Angels unto many Planets, and who as yet have not entered into so great a fulness as those who are resurrected from the dead"  

"History, 1838–1856, volume C-1 [2 November 1838–31 July 1842] [addenda]," p. 17 [addenda], The Joseph Smith Papers, accessed April 20, 2023, https://www.josephsmithpapers.org/paper-summary/history-1838-1856-volume-c-1-2-november-1838-31-july-1842/552

Edited April 20, 2023 by mikbone

[Vort]

21 minutes ago, LDSGator said:

On that same record, I completely agree with you. 
 

Would you say most physicists share our views? 

I don't actually know many physicists any more, but surprisingly, I would say that many physicists do believe in extraterrestrial life. Of course, so do we, but believing that life exists outside of the earth is a far cry from believing that aliens from outer space are flying their UFOs around us. And I have known quite a few bona fide physicists who seemed to believe exactly that.

[Jamie123]

24 minutes ago, Vort said:

Of course, so do we, but believing that life exists outside of the earth is a far cry from believing that aliens from outer space are flying their UFOs around us.

I wonder though, if there are aliens flying around us, would we necessarily know it? Perhaps when we look up at the clouds, we're actually looking at alien beings - much the way fish in the aquarium are looking uncomprehendingly through the glass at us.

[NeuroTypical]

26 minutes ago, Jamie123 said:

I wonder though, if there are aliens flying around us, would we necessarily know it? 

For that matter, they might be interacting with us online.  Perhaps by adopting a friendly looking avatar, and a screen name that literally means "human with normal brain functioning as far as you know".

Also, this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2vWsolLgRBM

 

p.s. @pam, do you know how I can get rid of that little spaceshippy icon thing on my icon?  You're blowin' my cover.

 

Edited April 20, 2023 by NeuroTypical

[Vort]

7 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

For that matter, they might be interacting with us online.  Perhaps by adopting a friendly looking avatar, and a screen name that literally means "human with normal brain functioning as far as you know".

...if the fools only knew what Vort means in N'tlîlãxian...

[Jamie123]

No one ever seems to question the Drake equation or where it came from, or what assumptions lie behind it. Though I've never seen a derivation, it must be something like this: if R is the rate of star formation and n the number of civilizations per star (which includes that great string of fractions that most people think is all the Drake equation amounts to), then civilizations must appear at a rate Rn. But if they last on average L years then the rate of disappearance per civilization must be 1/L. Therefore we get the differential equation dN/dt=Rn-N/L, where N is the number of civilizations and t is the age of the galaxy. Now we see the Drake equation N=RnL is only true if dN/dt is zero (i.e. the system is in equilibrium). If N is still building up from zero then the more general solution is N=RnL(1-e^t/L), or if we are still very close to the start, N=Rnt. Perhaps there are good reasons for thinking N has stabilized, but what if civilizations last a long time so L is very large (L>>t)? The Drake equation then only gives an upper limit, and the actual value could be anywhere between 1 (just us) and RnL.

 

 

Edited April 20, 2023 by Jamie123

[Vort]

25 minutes ago, Jamie123 said:

No one ever seems to question the Drake equation or where it came from, or what assumptions lie behind it. Though I've never seen a derivation, it must be something like this: if R is the rate of star formation and n the number of civilizations per star (which includes that great string of fractions that most people think is all the Drake equation amounts to), then if civilizations last forever they must grow linearly at a rate Rn. But if they only last on average L years then the rate of disappearance per civilization must be 1/L. Therefore we get the differential equation dN/dt=Rn-N/L, where N is the number of civilizations and t is the age of the galaxy. Now we see the Drake equation N=RnL is only true if dN/dt is zero (i.e. the system is in equilibrium). If N is still building up from zero then the more general solution is N=RnL(1-e^t/L), or if we are still very close to the start, N=Rnt. Perhaps there are good reasons for thinking N has stabilized, but what if civilizations last a long time so L is very large (L>>t)? The Drake equation then only gives an upper limit, and the actual value could be anywhere between 1 (just us) and RnL.

Sure. Everyone knows that the Drake equation is simply brain candy. Well, not actually everyone, but mostly everyone over the age of about 30 who actually cares about such things.

[NeuroTypical]

44 minutes ago, Jamie123 said:

the actual value could be anywhere between 1 (just us) and RnL.

Pretty bold of you to just grab the title 'civilization' for humans.  Seems like the higher the actual value, the less certain that we'd qualify, when compared to other civilizations.  Could they tell the difference between us and a slime mold?  Would they bother?

[mikbone]

The Drake equation is:

where

N = the number of civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy with which communication might be possible (i.e. which are on the current past light cone);

and

R∗ = the average rate of star formation in our Galaxy

fp = the fraction of those stars that have planets

ne = the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets

fl = the fraction of planets that could support life that actually develop life at some point

fi = the fraction of planets with life that actually go on to develop intelligent life (civilizations)

fc = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space

L = the length of time for which such civilizations release detectable signals into space[5][6]

 

The Drake equation is universally appreciated.  

The values of the variables are highly debated though…

[pam]

4 hours ago, NeuroTypical said:

For that matter, they might be interacting with us online.  Perhaps by adopting a friendly looking avatar, and a screen name that literally means "human with normal brain functioning as far as you know".

Also, this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2vWsolLgRBM

 

p.s. @pam, do you know how I can get rid of that little spaceshippy icon thing on my icon?  You're blowin' my cover.

 

I'll have to find out.

[askandanswer]

The last time I checked, Sub-section 152, of Section 84AAV of Part MCXXVIII of The Universal Code for Free Intergalatic Navigation and Conduct specified that all contact with Kardashev civilisations below level 3 must be avoided. Knowing how rigorously alien nations respect the law as a means of modifying behaviour, I suspect that that is the main reason why we haven’t noticed too many of them around. They don't want to be seen and they take strenuous measures to avoid being seen. 

Sub-section 153 of the same Code says that if contact is made, or if non-level 3 civilisations become aware of the presence of higher level civilisations, the existence of the contacted or aware civilisation must be discontinued. So I think we should be grateful that we haven’t had any contact so far. If we do, we should immediately cover it up in order to prevent our existence from being discontinued. So, even if there was/is/will be any such contact, its in our interest to keep it hidden.

[Jamie123]

4 hours ago, mikbone said:

The Drake equation is universally appreciated.

That's what i mean. No one questions it. It doesn't hurt to point out the assumptions behind what we "universally appreciate" and ask if they are valid.

[Jamie123]

5 hours ago, NeuroTypical said:

Pretty bold of you to just grab the title 'civilization' for humans.  Seems like the higher the actual value, the less certain that we'd qualify, when compared to other civilizations.  Could they tell the difference between us and a slime mold?  Would they bother?

A slime mold is actually quite an impressive organism.

[Traveler]

16 hours ago, mikbone said:

The Drake equation is universally appreciated.  

The values of the variables are highly debated though…

The only reason it is appreciated is because we do not understand the question sufficiently to be able to better respond to what parameters are actually necessary.  We are dealing with something far beyond our current capability of empirical understanding within the confines of even the data we are gathering.  Everything is more unproven speculation that what anyone claims concerning even religious notions of the existence of divine beings (including devils or demons).

 

The Traveler

[mikbone]

41 minutes ago, Traveler said:

The only reason it is appreciated is because we do not understand the question sufficiently to be able to better respond to what parameters are actually necessary.  We are dealing with something far beyond our current capability of empirical understanding within the confines of even the data we are gathering.  Everything is more unproven speculation that what anyone claims concerning even religious notions of the existence of divine beings (including devils or demons).

 

The Traveler

Nah, its simple. 

How many stars are in the galaxy.  What percent have habitable planets.  Which percent of those support life.  Which percent of those a actually have intelligent life.  Which percent of those have progressed to have communication via the electromagnetic spectrum.  And the length of time that the communication persists.  

The equation only gives a probability of us being able to intercept those communications.  Based upon the variables that are chosen.

The Drake equation does not take into account the possibility of deity or the Star Trek Prime Directive (prohibiting Starfleet’s members from interfering with the natural development of alien civilizations.)

When Enrico Fermi was asked to calculate the probability based upon variables he chose.  He famously responded, “Where is everybody?”

 

This is the great part about the Drake equation. Enrico Fermi was a freakin genius.  If he thought we should have already been contacted…  Then, there is probably something or someone interfering / preventing us from communicating with the other intelligences.   Thus, There is a God.

Or Starfleet’s prime directive is functioning.

Or something else is out there preventing our communication.

Edited April 21, 2023 by mikbone

[mikbone]

Duplicate

Edited April 21, 2023 by mikbone

[Vort]

3 minutes ago, mikbone said:

Nah, its simple. 

How many stars are in the galaxy.  What percent have habitable planets.  Which percent of those support life.  Which percent of those a actually have intelligent life.  Which percent of those have progressed to have communication via the electromagnetic spectrum.  And the length of time that the communication persists.

Yes, so those highly intelligent whales that develop on the salt-water-covered planet Thol will never get to say hi to extratholians. The Drake equation is fun, simple, intuitively reasonable, and despite all that, useless. We could only use it in reverse: First discover intelligent life elsewhere, then extrapolate what the variables must be (or at least what their products must be).

3 minutes ago, mikbone said:

When Enrico Fermi was asked to calculate the probability based upon variables he chose.  He famously responded, “Where is everybody?”

Story time:

My grandpa, my mother's father, learned particle physics from Enrico Fermi. He (my grandpa) was a young husband and father of 29 or 30 during WWII and recruited to work at Hanford as a reactor operator. Lots of top men and top secret stuff going on there. The operators were trained in the science (as opposed to operations, which was taken care of by someone else) by "Mr. Farmer", a friendly guy with an Italian accent who turned out to be a Nobel Prize-winning, world-famous scientist. So how the heck about that?

I just Googled "fermi farmer" and found this nice little history. Look for the section titled "Mr. Farmer". https://www.fi.edu/en/news/case-files-enrico-fermi

[Traveler]

21 hours ago, Vort said:

An interesting topic. My utter disbelief in UFOs-as-outer-space-aliens is on record. I do have additional thoughts on these and related topics, however.

I believe that religious yearnings are built into the human psyche. I believe that UFOlogy and much of the science and pseudoscience worship we see in the world today is an expression of such inborn yearnings.

I think you're right. I also think that such nonsense is ultimately a battle of egos. Pride is at the root of such foolish contentions.

My own opinion is that civilization is not closely correlated with technological sophistication. We today are more technologically sophisticated than any previous society in all history that we have record of. We certainly have impressive electronic toys, some of them being exceptionally useful in organizing and managing such a huge body of people. But at the level of being a civilized people, where individuals are valued and given place among others for the health and well-being of the whole, I think we are not the best humanity has produced. I suspect there are many past civilizations, some perhaps lost to history, that were far more "civilized" than us in some such important respects.

This will not happen in our lifetimes, and I suspect may never happen. There are significant engineering challenges to this, perhaps so significant that it will simply not be profitable to work through the problems. I think this is not unlikely. If nuclear fusion as a manageable energy source ever does come about, it will most likely be through some breakthrough in physics that allows us to "cheat the system", something on the order of so-called cold fusion.

A couple of points:

• The net ion flux from the sun is zero charge. Otherwise, the sun would steadily become more positively charged, a situation which could continue only a very, very short while before the sun itself would be forcibly ripping electrons away from the inner planets and every other physical body in close proximity.
• I have never heard of solar winds causing crustal currents in the earth. If such currents exist, it's not obvious to me how we could harvest them. I also wonder what effect such hypothetical sun-caused crustal currents would have on the earth's biome and overall functioning.
• The amount of energy flowing from the sun as electromagnetic radiation (light, radio waves, gamma rays, etc.) would certainly far exceed whatever power might come from ion flux or induced crustal currents. I would think it would be vastly cheaper and more efficient to build huge space mirrors to focus light onto a generator.

I agree, and I believe that our only hope is in Jesus Christ. I do not believe that advancing technology will ever, ever, ever save us. If the natural man is not reigned in, such technology will simply make our bondage that much more horrific.

As for why other nearby intelligent civilizations haven't contacted us: Consider that mankind has existed on earth for about 200,000 years (scientific estimates of early anatomically modern humans). If life has existed for about two billion years—a conservative estimate—modern humans have been around for about one ten-thousandth of the existence of life on earth. That's about 0.0001, or 0.01% of the existence of life on earth. We have had radio communication technology for roughly a century. That means radio communications have come from earth for 100/2,000,000,000 = 1/20,000,000 = 0.00000005 = 5x10^-8 = 0.000005% of the time life has existed on earth.

In that time, radio waves have traveled up to 100 light-years from the earth. Let's look ten times further out. Estimates for the number of stars within 1000 light-years of earth range in the area of 100,000 stars. There's some question here, and that number could range an order of magnitude either direction. Surely the vast majority of these stars are inhospitable to the development of life, either because they're too cool (tiny Goldilocks zone) or too hot (and thus too short-lived), or in an area where other conditions such as local radiation from nearby systems simply preclude stable DNA. Let's just accept 100,000 as a reasonable, if very optimistic, estimate for our local 1000-light-year-radius bubble.

So let's make some guesses here.

• Let's suppose that life arises on every planet (star system) where conditions are right for life, and that conditions exist appropriate for life to arise on one star system in ten. (This is surely a vast overestimate, by the way, but let's just go with it.)
• On how many of those star systems will intelligent life arise, that is, life capable of modifying its surroundings in such a way that it produces technological advancement? I don't know. Neither do you. Let's guess 10% (again, probably a vast overestimate).
• Now, how many of those intelligent races eventually develop sophisticated technology? Guess: 10%.
• Of those that develop sophisticated technology, how many specifically develop electromagnetic communications? Guess: 10%.
• How long does such a civilization last, either until it is destroyed (from without or from within) or until it moves beyond the need for radio-based communications? Guess: 100,000 years.
• From how far can such a radio signal be isolated from the background noise and identified as an artificial signal? Guess: 1000 light-years.

In my view, all of these guesses are enormous overestimates except perhaps the last one, the 1000 light-year guess. I could imagine solar-system-sized telescope arrays that might be able to resolve signals beyond 1000 light-years. But at this point, the situation becomes moot. People living more than 1000 light-years from us will never be able to engage us in useful conversation. A 1000-year time lag is just too long. So we can suppose that we're limited by a normal human lifespan to something much less than 1000 light-years if we're talking communication. Therefore, using 1000 years is, again, a vast overestimate.

100,000 potential stars * (1 star system with life)/(10 stars) * (1 intelligent life system)/(10 systems with life) * (1 technological system)/(10 intelligent life systems) * (1 radio tech system)/(10 technological systems) = 10 potential candidate systems with intelligent life that uses radio communications within 1000 light-years of earth.

That's ten. Within 1000 light-years. As an extremely optimistic guess.

Now, it took two and a half billion years for radio-using creatures to arise on earth. How long will it take on other star systems? If the civilizations last 100,000 years (that was our guess) and such sophisticated life forms first became possible, say, a billion years ago (probably another optimistic guess, but at this point it's just that, a guess), there looks to be a one in ten thousand (one hundred thousand divided by one billion) chance of overlap between another intelligent radio-transmitting system and our own. Assuming our greatly optimistic ten potential star system candidates. that would appear to give us an optimistic guess of about one chance in a thousand that we might actually hear communication from an alien intelligence.

This is a brief explanation of why I think SETI is such a waste of time, money, and effort.

As to UFO's -- it appears to me that there is an effort to explain all UFO's with one single possibility when there are likely many classes of explanations - none of which can only be because of extraterrestrial.

All truth come to mankind through Jesus Christ - I agree that without a testimony of Christ and connections to Christ other explanations of anything will eventually pass away.

As for civilizations – I find a remarkable resemblance of the Kardashev scale and the glories of the kingdoms of the resurrection.  This, to some degree, would mean that our current societies here on earth are not even up to snuff of the telestial degree of glory.  However, the point of the Kardashev scale is the realization of the difficulty of a lesser society understanding enough to identify any residuals of a significantly higher society.

Sorry I needed to be more expressive of solar winds.  Negative charged particles (mostly electrons) are attracted to the earth’s north poll and positive charged particles (mostly protons) are attracted to the earth’s south pole – which will cause currents from the north poll towards the south pole.  I was involved in the study of this phenomenon for navigation purposes.  The scientific term is for the effect is called magnetic variations – not to be confused by magnetic deviance which is the difference between true north (or south) from the magnetic north or south.   There are some places on earth where the magnetic variation is as much as 180 degrees off true.

As reference to nuclear fusion.  There is a story of Columbus that was being criticized for his discovery of the Americas claiming anyone could have done what he did.  In response Columbus asked if anyone could balance an egg on it’s end.  The response was that it was impossible – to which Columbus he could do it.  After several more failing efforts it was again declared impossible.   Finely Columbus took an egg and smashed it on it end so it in the broken state it stood on it end.  Then he remarked – that once he showed how it could be done any fool could now do it.  Not knowing an answer does not mean that an answer does not nor cannot exist.

The main point I hope to be realized is that we are at a burrier currently – where we may perfect our current technology but without developing some new technology we, as a society, cannot advance.

 

The Traveler

[Traveler]

54 minutes ago, mikbone said:

Nah, its simple. 

How many stars are in the galaxy.  What percent have habitable planets.  Which percent of those support life.  Which percent of those a actually have intelligent life.  Which percent of those have progressed to have communication via the electromagnetic spectrum.  And the length of time that the communication persists.  

The equation only gives a probability of us being able to intercept those communications.  Based upon the variables that are chosen.

The Drake equation does not take into account the possibility of deity or the Star Trek Prime Directive (prohibiting Starfleet’s members from interfering with the natural development of alien civilizations.)

When Enrico Fermi was asked to calculate the probability based upon variables he chose.  He famously responded, “Where is everybody?”

 

This is the great part about the Drake equation. Enrico Fermi was a freakin genius.  If he thought we should have already been contacted…  Then, there is probably something or someone interfering / preventing us from communicating with the other intelligences.   Thus, There is a God.

Or Starfleet’s prime directive is functioning.

Or something else is out there preventing our communication.

If we use the concept of the second law of thermodynamics it is possible to conclude that order can only come from intelligence.  It is quite possible that the best sign of a higher civilization is the existence of order.  This would indicate that the universe is full of intelligent life in the vast regions of our universe where life as we think we know it could not possibly exist.  If we do not know what to look for it is rather unlikely we will find anything.

 

The Traveler

[mikbone]

6 minutes ago, Traveler said:

If we do not know what to look for it is rather unlikely we will find anything.

The Tower of Babel didn’t get us any closer to God.

I highly doubt a modern tower or telescope will get us any closer…