Is China a Paper Tiger?

[Traveler]

I spent some time working in Tiawan some time ago.  Having spent time with the Chinese of Tiawan – I gained a very different perspective of Chian and its history.  Technically Tiawan belongs to China and should have been returned to China along with Hong Cong at the turn of the century.  However, with the fall of the Quin Dinasty and WWII a lot has changed.  Regardless China greatly wants Tiawan back.  Also, the people of Tiawan want to be reunited – but not with communists China.

The only obstacle prevent China from taking Tiawan back is the United States of America.   China has been making moves to take China back.  I have thought with the weak leadership of the current administration that China would have done something by now.  Especially in the interim of confusion that is taking place with the election. 

It has been a very long time since I worked for the Defense Department (which was during the cold war).  The military hardware and technology used by China is stolen and copied from the USA.  But the copies are not as good.  Coming more up to date – I have taken opportunity to purchase a number of Chinese products.  Such as mother boards for appliance computers, compressors for refrigerators and pull starters for 2 stroke engines.  These products are pure junk and, though the most inexpensive on the market, are not worth even considering.

I have also learned that China does not have a very good reputation for military hardware.

Could it be that for all the saber rattling going on that China is bluffing?  Historically this would not be new at all.  China has not done well in the modern arena of war.  They were abysmal in the opium wars as well as WWII.

I have come to believe China will not do anything but bluff in the pursuit of taking back Tiawan.

 

The Traveler

[LDSGator]

17 minutes ago, Traveler said:

Could it be that for all the saber rattling going on that China is bluffing? 

Yes. 

[NeuroTypical]

One might worry about the growing economic power of China in the last 10-15 years, as something that might fuel a change in the situation Traveler describes.  I don't know enough about it to opine, but I hear all sorts of claims that it's not as robust as China claims.  How much of it is real free-market reforms, and how much of it is communist make-believe?  I'd guess if you answer that question, you'd answer Traveler's question.

[Carborendum]

16 hours ago, Traveler said:

Is China a Paper Tiger?

It all depends on their relationship with India (and/or Russia).

Edited August 21, 2024 by Carborendum

[LDSGator]

20 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

How much of it is real free-market reforms

China isn’t a free market paradise by any stretch-but the beauty of capitalism and the internet is that the government can only take regulation and censorship so far. It doesn’t matter how much the government stomps their feet, censors everything and praises communism. The kids will still buy Lebron shirts, Nintendo games, and American super hero movies. 

None of that would have happened in Soviet Russia.  

[NeuroTypical]

Totally agree with the limits to government control, even in nations that call themselves communist/marxist/leninist.

1 hour ago, LDSGator said:

None of that would have happened in Soviet Russia.  

I had a buddy who was a high school exchange student with the USSR in the late '80's.  (Not exactly a full time exchange student, his trip was for around a month I think.)  He came back with a fun story about the black market opening up right outside his hotel.  The group of students had a government representative with them for the first day or two, but he left, and the black market showed up the next day.  My buddy shopped with USD, and got quite a huge pile of souvenirs.  His favorites were the fake military insignia.  He also got bootleg records of Paul McCartney's Back in the USSR and gave me one when he got back.  I've still got it in a box somewhere in the basement. 

The black market lasted 48 hours, then he watched from the hotel room as it got raided by the KGB and everyone scattered, and a bunch of people on the street got arrested.  He told me nobody seemed to even blink at the raid or arrests, like it was just a normal businessday in Moscow.

The real version:

The black market USSR version: 

 

Edited August 21, 2024 by NeuroTypical

[zil2]

24 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

black market

Yep.  The only place where honest trade happened.  Everywhere else, it was bribes, theft, connections, or government-forced poverty.

One of the guys I worked with knew someone who worked in an automotive manufacturing plant and got his own car by stealing one part at a time (or perhaps a few at a time for small things - can't remember the story any more).  (In their plants, there was't an assembly line - each crew built an entire car from the ground up. The guys I worked with thought any other way was just full of all sorts of problems. )

[LDSGator]

53 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

high school exchange student

Yuk, those people are so weird!

[NeuroTypical]

Almost as bad as homeschoolers!

 

[Ironhold]

4 hours ago, NeuroTypical said:

One might worry about the growing economic power of China in the last 10-15 years, as something that might fuel a change in the situation Traveler describes.  I don't know enough about it to opine, but I hear all sorts of claims that it's not as robust as China claims.  How much of it is real free-market reforms, and how much of it is communist make-believe?  I'd guess if you answer that question, you'd answer Traveler's question.

Here's what it comes down to.

1. The Chinese military is so utterly lacking in logistical ability that the Chinese Army cannot project itself for very long outside of China's borders. This has been a known issue for decades, and in fact back in the 1990s when it was alleged that Bill Clinton and Al Gore were taking Chinese bribes several of these bribes ostensibly involved Bill greasing the wheels so that these individuals could have tours of places like FedEx HQ where they'd have been able to learn how it is we're so good at logistics. 

2. The Chinese Navy is relying almost exclusively on direct-combat surface warships due to the fact that their one and only aircraft carrier, a *must* for modern naval warfare, is basically a boondoggle. As much as China wants the world to believe it owns everything under the Nine Dashed Line, without a proper fleet of aircraft carriers they can't actually hope to seriously conquer anything, let alone maintain a presence. 

3. The supplies that Chinese military servicemembers have is horrifically below par for a nation of its size and economic might. If you go to YouTube and look up Steve 1989 MRE Info, you can find videos of him displaying and attempting to consume Chinese military rations among other world military rations. When I was last able to watch YouTube he'd only gotten food poisoning twice, and the second time was a Chinese military ration that was so vile the chlorophyl in the vegetables had leeched into the pork in the meal. 

China knows that from a military standpoint, the only thing they truly have in their favor is their nuclear arsenal; they do have millions of combat-age men they can send to war, but again the best these men could hope to do is use human wave tactics to overwhelm positions. Smart people know that no one sane would be the first to push that button, as literally everyone else in that exclusive club will respond by pushing their own buttons in retaliation. But enough world leaders are cowed by the idea that China is using it as potential leverage. 

As a result, the Chinese government is prioritizing global conquest based on economic and cultural domination. China has the money, so much so that they actually own a considerable amount of US government debt; this is a big part of why so many conservative politicians have made debt reduction a big issue. China is also such a massive market that global companies are falling all over themselves to get into China, allowing China to dictate terms and even influence global entertainment. 

[Ironhold]

4 hours ago, LDSGator said:

China isn’t a free market paradise by any stretch-but the beauty of capitalism and the internet is that the government can only take regulation and censorship so far. It doesn’t matter how much the government stomps their feet, censors everything and praises communism. The kids will still buy Lebron shirts, Nintendo games, and American super hero movies. 

None of that would have happened in Soviet Russia.  

The USSR was smart enough to realize that they couldn't perpetually stop the flow of Western material into their nations, so they slowed the process by cutting deals. 

For example, ABBA was famously allowed to sell its records in Russia, but they got "paid" in oil rather than Russian currency. ABBA had already purchased a number of businesses as tax shelters by this point, so it actually wasn't that hard for them to divest themselves of that oil. 

[LDSGator]

2 hours ago, NeuroTypical said:

Almost as bad as homeschoolers!

 

Eh, if they let people like me and LG host, they’ll let people like you homeschool. 
 

(joking everyone. I’d trust @NeuroTypical with my paycheck. Stand up guy) 

 

49 minutes ago, Ironhold said:

ABBA

My goodness, people suffered enough in the USSR- now they have to listen to @mirkwoods favorite band?

[LDSGator]

6 hours ago, zil2 said:

stealing one part at a time

 

[zil2]

12 minutes ago, LDSGator said:

 

Makes you wonder how many people have come up with the same idea!

[zil2]

1 minute ago, zil2 said:

Makes you wonder how many people have come up with the same idea!

Hmm.  Or maybe the guy in Russia had a black market copy of this song!

[mordorbund]

14 hours ago, zil2 said:

In their plants, there was't an assembly line - each crew built an entire car from the ground up. The guys I worked with thought any other way was just full of all sorts of problems. )

That really is the best way if you can’t guarantee the consistency of the parts. If your 1” diameter rod can differ by 1/8” in either direction, and the hole it goes through also differs by 1/8”, you’ll get slowed down applying some sort of adaptation. If that was the only problem then an assembly line is still better because you become expert in the domain’s problems and adaptations. But the downside is that adaptations compound. A previous line worker welded on a piece that’s longer but you need it shorter. Can you trim it? Or do you need to build around it? If you welded it on yourself you may actually remember that it needed the additional weight the extra length provided.

Or another way to think of it might be on an even larger scale. We’re able to specialize because we trust others to provide high quality within their domains. Imagine a 30% catastrophic failure rate. People who install water lines fail 30% of the time (either they used lead pipes or they connected the wrong house). You probably will dig your own well. 30% of fruits, vegetables, and meat carry some disease. You take a look at the 100 salad bags on the shelf. 30 of them have diseased vegetables. Another 21 didn’t seal the bag properly and the whole thing is rotten (really wish these bags had windows). Somewhere in this pile of bags there’s 49 good ones. You’ve suddenly embraced the life of a subsistence farmer. You’re manufacturing your meals one at a time.

The assembly line works if the whole is broken down to enough discreet steps, and each step has precisely defined prerequisites that can be and are consistently met.

[mirkwood]

13 hours ago, LDSGator said:

My goodness, people suffered enough in the USSR- now they have to listen to @mirkwoods favorite band?

 

Ask and ye shall receive.

 

 

 

[Carborendum]

8 hours ago, mordorbund said:

That really is the best way if you can’t guarantee the consistency of the parts. If your 1” diameter rod can differ by 1/8” in either direction, and the hole it goes through also differs by 1/8”, you’ll get slowed down applying some sort of adaptation. If that was the only problem then an assembly line is still better because you become expert in the domain’s problems and adaptations. But the downside is that adaptations compound. A previous line worker welded on a piece that’s longer but you need it shorter. Can you trim it? Or do you need to build around it? If you welded it on yourself you may actually remember that it needed the additional weight the extra length provided.

Japanese automakers instituted the rotation of positions in the assembly line.  When a new employee was introduced, he was given Task A.  During that time, he would get some ideas into his head on what aspects of that position were important and which ones were not.  Where did he need to be precise?  Where could he cut corners?

As he got proficient, he would be trained on Task B (just downstream of A).  During this time, he'd realize how important some aspects of Task A were and what he should change about his work at Station A to make life easier for the guy at Station B.  This would go on throughout the entire assembly line.

Workers tended to rotate during their entire career.  Each one making small changes to each position.  And when they interacted as well as discussed things during lunch, etc., the entire process was improved and became as efficient as possible.

[Traveler]

5 hours ago, Carborendum said:

Japanese automakers instituted the rotation of positions in the assembly line.  When a new employee was introduced, he was given Task A.  During that time, he would get some ideas into his head on what aspects of that position were important and which ones were not.  Where did he need to be precise?  Where could he cut corners?

As he got proficient, he would be trained on Task B (just downstream of A).  During this time, he'd realize how important some aspects of Task A were and what he should change about his work at Station A to make life easier for the guy at Station B.  This would go on throughout the entire assembly line.

Workers tended to rotate during their entire career.  Each one making small changes to each position.  And when they interacted as well as discussed things during lunch, etc., the entire process was improved and became as efficient as possible.

I have spent some time working in Japan and their manufacturing.  They have a philosophy that was first introduced to Toyota following WWII for improving manufacturing.  The term used as the name for this method is kaizen.  There is a lot more to this production method than just workers learning different positions.  The formal kaizen is initiated with a hashing out of best production methods by top producers (chosen by each production level).   Examples of things discussed are problem encountered, what makes things work best, who (or what levels) need to accomplish what, what would help productions, what hinders production, and various ideas or concepts that individuals or teams think could bring about improvements. 

Having worked through several kaizens, I would make one comment of note to the forum.  Never have I ever encountered the concept of DEI in a kaizen despite the fact that diversity and inclusion are hallmarks of the process.  The diversity and inclusion comes from those at the various levels of production – never by race or social status.  What was interesting to me, is that the insights usually of least worth in a kaizen were those from management.

 

The Traveler

[JohnsonJones]

I'm not so sure I'd write China off so easily.

We've fought two wars against China, and though we won them, we also didn't not have a total and complete win.  In fact, in one instance, after we left the Chinese supported forces basically took over almost immediately.

In Korea, we fought the Chinese for the North.  Sure, there were Koreans, but there were an awful lot of Chinese.

In Vietnam, there were the North Vietnamese, but they all had weapons and stuff from China...and I'm pretty sure some of the individuals were basically disguised Chinese "advisors" that we shot.

The PROBLEM in those wars was not that we couldn't have smacked China down hard, but that we weren't ALLOWED to smack China down hard.

THAT's going to be the problem if we ever have to fight a war with China again.  It's not whether they are a paper tiger or not, or whether they have good enough weapons or not, it's going to be just how far our Politicians allow us to go in defeating China which will determine how successful or unsuccessful they are.

[EH12NG]

Like all try hard bullies, they will get away with it for as long as they are allowed. 

The are being very sneaky economically, so I'd rather we focused on those movements rather than those of their army which is about as useful as their terracotta army. 

trying to find the footage from one of their military parades where the wind blows a little too hard and one of their inflatable missiles wobbles. 

One thing is for sure, I know they are quietly uneasy about the slow and inevitable gutting of Russia. China is very much one half of the bully boy duo with Russia. But now that Russia has a black eye and a bloody nose, China is doing and saying very little while the West empty Russia's pockets before stuffing them into their lockers. 

Edited August 27, 2024 by EH12NG

[Traveler]

On 8/26/2024 at 6:12 AM, JohnsonJones said:

I'm not so sure I'd write China off so easily.

We've fought two wars against China, and though we won them, we also didn't not have a total and complete win.  In fact, in one instance, after we left the Chinese supported forces basically took over almost immediately.

In Korea, we fought the Chinese for the North.  Sure, there were Koreans, but there were an awful lot of Chinese.

In Vietnam, there were the North Vietnamese, but they all had weapons and stuff from China...and I'm pretty sure some of the individuals were basically disguised Chinese "advisors" that we shot.

The PROBLEM in those wars was not that we couldn't have smacked China down hard, but that we weren't ALLOWED to smack China down hard.

THAT's going to be the problem if we ever have to fight a war with China again.  It's not whether they are a paper tiger or not, or whether they have good enough weapons or not, it's going to be just how far our Politicians allow us to go in defeating China which will determine how successful or unsuccessful they are.

It is my opinion that neither Korea nor Vietnam ought to be considered a war any more than the current handling of antisemitic riots at liberal universities.  I was in the military (assigned for a time to an intelligence unit) during the Vietnam conflict.   Though I was never in Vietnam I did have access to critical information.

A short summary:

North Vietnam had one railroad line that connected the country.  That infrastructure was never targeted.

North Vietnam had one industrial area that produced all inhouse war needs.  That infrastructure was never targeted.

North Vietnam had two agriculture areas that supplied most of the food for the entire country, including its military.  That asset was never targeted.

Over 90% of the resources supplied by China (including manpower) that was not shipped via boat to North Vietnam came via the Ho Chi Minh trail.  A very inexpensive tactic was developed that completely shut down the Ho Chi Minh trail with almost zero risk to any US assets but was only utilized for one week then was ended with no explanation.

If we would have dropped sandbags into the Hai Phong Port (entry of military supplies other than the Ho Chi Minh trail) of the equivalent weight of the ordinance dropped else where in North Vietnam – we would have done more damage to North Vietnam war effort and ended critical wartime ocean shipments.

The USA could have won and ended the Vietnam conflict in a week or less.  There would have been less civilian life lost (collateral damage). Less military risk (lives of our boys in uniform) and less cost had that conflict not been controlled by politicians.

If I seem a little harsh – you have touched a very tender chord with me.  The only involvement of politicians in war (or conflicts) should be to declare war.  Without a formal declaration by our politicians, we should not engage in any war activities towards anyone. (PERIOD) Once war is declared the politicians should keep the #%$# out of the way.  Likewise, all information (news) concerning the war needs to be controlled by those directly engaged in the war.

War is not a good thing - ever!  Obviously, war should (Must!) be a last resort – utilized only with the intent to win the conflict with overwhelming force pointed directly at the softest targets available at our disposal and put an end to the war and all those willing to fight a war against us.

Otherwise we are the paper tiger.

 

The Traveler

[NeuroTypical]

On 8/22/2024 at 7:29 PM, Traveler said:

Having worked through several kaizens, I would make one comment of note to the forum.  Never have I ever encountered the concept of DEI in a kaizen despite the fact that diversity and inclusion are hallmarks of the process.  The diversity and inclusion comes from those at the various levels of production – never by race or social status. 

Yep.  True diversity is the diversity of ideas.  Progressive notions of diversity focuses primarily on race/gender, but pushes marxist class warfare and plain old hatred of the rich.   

[Ironhold]

3 hours ago, Traveler said:

It is my opinion that neither Korea nor Vietnam ought to be considered a war any more than the current handling of antisemitic riots at liberal universities.  I was in the military (assigned for a time to an intelligence unit) during the Vietnam conflict.   Though I was never in Vietnam I did have access to critical information.

A short summary:

North Vietnam had one railroad line that connected the country.  That infrastructure was never targeted.

North Vietnam had one industrial area that produced all inhouse war needs.  That infrastructure was never targeted.

North Vietnam had two agriculture areas that supplied most of the food for the entire country, including its military.  That asset was never targeted.

Over 90% of the resources supplied by China (including manpower) that was not shipped via boat to North Vietnam came via the Ho Chi Minh trail.  A very inexpensive tactic was developed that completely shut down the Ho Chi Minh trail with almost zero risk to any US assets but was only utilized for one week then was ended with no explanation.

If we would have dropped sandbags into the Hai Phong Port (entry of military supplies other than the Ho Chi Minh trail) of the equivalent weight of the ordinance dropped else where in North Vietnam – we would have done more damage to North Vietnam war effort and ended critical wartime ocean shipments.

The USA could have won and ended the Vietnam conflict in a week or less.  There would have been less civilian life lost (collateral damage). Less military risk (lives of our boys in uniform) and less cost had that conflict not been controlled by politicians.

If I seem a little harsh – you have touched a very tender chord with me.  The only involvement of politicians in war (or conflicts) should be to declare war.  Without a formal declaration by our politicians, we should not engage in any war activities towards anyone. (PERIOD) Once war is declared the politicians should keep the #%$# out of the way.  Likewise, all information (news) concerning the war needs to be controlled by those directly engaged in the war.

War is not a good thing - ever!  Obviously, war should (Must!) be a last resort – utilized only with the intent to win the conflict with overwhelming force pointed directly at the softest targets available at our disposal and put an end to the war and all those willing to fight a war against us.

Otherwise we are the paper tiger.

 

The Traveler

The military commanders themselves often had no clue what they were doing. It's said that even *decades* after General Westmoreland couldn't give a coherent explanation of his goals and objectives without deteriorating the discussion into metrics and measurements. 

So we also need to make sure that our commanders are up to the job or they'll do just as much damage as the politicians. 

[Traveler]

3 hours ago, Ironhold said:

The military commanders themselves often had no clue what they were doing. It's said that even *decades* after General Westmoreland couldn't give a coherent explanation of his goals and objectives without deteriorating the discussion into metrics and measurements. 

So we also need to make sure that our commanders are up to the job or they'll do just as much damage as the politicians. 

Military commanders that answer to politicians are extensions of the politicians.   Politicians (especially professional politicians) tend towards corruption, waist, economic instability and moral dysphoria whenever they get control of something.  This is another reason why I believe individuals should be required to fulfill a military obligation before becoming a citizen with voting rights and freedom of speech.

 

The Traveler