Welcome to the Don of a new day

[Vort]

[Just_A_Guy]

Why am I suddenly thinking of Teletubbies?

[The Folk Prophet]

It's a bit surreal that he actually won. I mean... in some ways...totally unsurprising. In other ways, very surprising.

[mikbone]

The discontent was palpable.

[Phoenix_person]

I greatly look forward to saying "I told you so" in a few years.

[NeuroTypical]

Honestly, humans and their weird politics are getting phased out in favor of the AI worlds created by children in their spare time.   Yeesh.  It's shockingly easier every hour to find stuff like this: 

 

[mikbone]

57 minutes ago, Phoenix_person said:

I greatly look forward to saying "I told you so" in a few years.

 

Unlikely.

But I will revel in the fact that the majority of Americans saw through the lies and vain hope of the democratic bureaucrats.

I am thrilled that freedom of speech will be protected.

And I’m really enjoying the direction that my 401K and IRA is going.

[LDSGator]

18 hours ago, The Folk Prophet said:

It's a bit surreal that he actually won. I mean... in some ways...totally unsurprising. In other ways, very surprising.

It has showed us that old school data and analysis poly sci guys have become obsolete. Conventional wisdom has been thrown out the door. For now anyway. 

[mirkwood]

My 401K jumped quite a bit yesterday.

[Traveler]

2 hours ago, Phoenix_person said:

I greatly look forward to saying "I told you so" in a few years.

It is interesting to note your posts and opinions.  I do not want to give the impression that I am picking on you as much as picking your brain.  If you do not want to engage in conversation to give detail explanations for your opinions – it is okay with me.

I consider myself an expert in supply chain operations from my background in industrial automation and robotics.  I have had serious encounters with trade unions in manufacturing because of my expertise in robotics.  It is important to listen and understand points of view in supply side operations.   

I also recently returned from a visit to China.  China has a collective view to trade that is very different than the collective view here in the USA.  For example, the average work day in China is a 12 hour day and 6 day work week.  That amounts to a 72 hour work week compared to our 40 hour work week.  In addition their annual pay is about 1/3 there compared to our annual pay here for comparable skills.

So what is happening?  Obviously, exactly what you would think.  Just about every major manufacturing company in the USA has moved manufacturing to China.  The workers are skilled, they work longer hours and get paid less.  Initially this was a great idea because we could save money for manufactured goods.   This is good for the economy – RIGHT?  It sure is in the short term.

But there is a trend.  There is a great deal of engineering research and development (design) that goes into manufacturing.  Logistically this engineering works best if located close to manufacturing for logical feedback to engineering and upgrading manufacturing with engineered methods.  So, the engineering eventually gets moved to Chian as well.  Soon it is realized that management works best at location.  Nothing is left of the process outside of the investment.  This is why the rich are getting richer and the poor poorer and the middle class is shrinking in the USA.

There is something else that happens.  Money earned and spent locally circulates and multiplies.  All this is simple economics 101 that even an engineer like myself can easily understand.  Having our manufacturing done remotely will, in the long term, destroy our economy and not just put our manufacturing workers out of work – but our engineers and managers as well.

The USA had an abundance of natural resources.  If we utilize the natural resources at our disposal, build manufacturing; then the engineering and management will naturally follow.  But we also need to incentivize a work force (make living on government dole unpopular), maintain a competitive manufacturing environment and keep government from creating unnecessary economic and social burdens in the workplace.

I will be honest – I do not like Trump’s narcissism and certain morals.  But it has been decades without anyone in politics with the intent and intelligence to push strong economic principles in our political landscape.  Not only do we need to drastically alter the parameters of our elected officials but we also need to radically change the mindset of our bureaucracy.   Even though Trump has a “your fired” mentality – I do not think even that is enough to stem the tide of corruption and greed so deeply entrenched in our government and corporate structure.

We will how much our work ethic, morals and intelligence can overcome our current greed and personal lusts for in the moment induvial passions can take place – so we can value that which stabilizes society – like sustainable family values.

 

The Traveler

[Carborendum]

14 minutes ago, Traveler said:

Money earned and spent locally circulates and multiplies.

This assumes that every job that is posted will get filled.  Unfortunately, there is an entire generation that is refusing to work.  That creates a worker shortage.  

This is a problem.

14 minutes ago, Traveler said:

All this is simple economics 101 that even an engineer like myself can easily understand.

I resemble that remark.

14 minutes ago, Traveler said:

Having our manufacturing done remotely will, in the long term, destroy our economy and not just put our manufacturing workers out of work – but our engineers and managers as well.

I've had the misfortune of working with many foreign engineers.  Yes, they can calculate and do math.  But it is a rare foreign engineer who actually understands how to design for efficiency while maintaining quality.  For some reason, the US engineers in general are more capable of seeing overall patterns that foreign engineers cannot.  There is a reason for that.  Judgement.  Americans have the capacity to judge what to sacrifice for what benefits.  Other countries simply don't do that on the same level.  I don't know why.  I just know that this is what I've seen again and again.  Some American engineers who are not as good at the technical aspects can certainly make better overall judgments than foreign engineers who are math wizards and have near photographic memories.

So, if the world walks down that road, we'll have the "better ending than mending" attitude.  Heck, most Americans already do.  And that is one thing that is impoverishing a population that should be the wealthiest in the world.

Aside from that, the questions remain:

• How much will tariffs raise prices domestically in the short term?  @Phoenix_person has posted a source.  I have no reason to question it at this point.  It indicated approximately a 10% to 15% increase in all those sectors reported.
• How much will tariffs raise prices domestically in the long term?  I don't know.

One thing I do know is that American products tend to be more durable than foreign products.  I buy a microwave made in China for $100, it lasts a year or two.  I buy a US microwave for $150, it lasts 5 or 6 years.  This is just a top of my head example.  So, the reality may vary.  But I believe the sense of it is correct.  If we buy more American goods, we'll probably be better off financially as individual households than if we buy from China.

Further, if we buy more US goods, then more US personnel will be employed.  Then they can spend more money in the US raising everyone's real wages.

The thing is that this is such a complex question that it is difficult to analyze without being a dedicated economist.  I'm not one.  So, I can only consider tried and true principles as a whole.

Free market is ideal when everyone plays by the same rules.  But when corporations in one country are forced to play by easier rules than corporations in other countries, that is not a free market.  It favors the easier ruled country.  So, given that, what are we to do?  Fight fire with fire?  That's essentially what tariffs are.  I don't know if it will benefit or harm in the long run.  Both the idea of tariffs and the idea of playing by unequal rules are not good principles to live by.

[NeuroTypical]

40 minutes ago, Traveler said:

But there is a trend.  There is a great deal of engineering research and development (design) that goes into manufacturing.  Logistically this engineering works best if located close to manufacturing for logical feedback to engineering and upgrading manufacturing with engineered methods.  So, the engineering eventually gets moved to Chian as well.  Soon it is realized that management works best at location.  Nothing is left of the process outside of the investment. 

I've worked in a certain group for a global fortune 500 company for two decades.  When I got there, we had R&D happening in 4 countries.  The production was mostly done in one of these low cost countries.  

2 decades later, even with new management every 5 years, and the occasional economic downturn forcing restructuring, we still have R&D happening in the same 4 countries in roughly the same proportions.  A bit more in the US than before, actually.   

I don't know how representative my experience or yours is across industries, but the trend may not be something that happens everywhere.  

[Phoenix_person]

27 minutes ago, Traveler said:

The USA had an abundance of natural resources.  If we utilize the natural resources at our disposal, build manufacturing; then the engineering and management will naturally follow. 

I was working in the beer industry under Trump. They saw a lot of prices for aluminum cans increase due to his tariffs. Same thing when I worked at Pepsi during COVID. A lot of domestic manufacturers rely on imported raw materials. I'm all for fixing that and making American manufacturing great again, but it's never going to happen if your first move is to kneecap the supply chain of existing domestic industries. Fix the problems of resources and domestic labor first, then we can talk about strengthening our economy through protective tariffs.

BTW, I am extremely hard-pressed to find an economist or international trade expert who thinks Trump's tariffs are a good idea. And no offense, but I trust their input more than a guy on an internet forum. 

https://econofact.org/factbrief/did-the-trump-tariffs-increase-us-manufacturing-jobs

27 minutes ago, Traveler said:

social burdens in the workplace.

Huh?

27 minutes ago, Traveler said:

But it has been decades without anyone in politics with the intent and intelligence to push strong economic principles in our political landscape.  Not only do we need to drastically alter the parameters of our elected officials but we also need to radically change the mindset of our bureaucracy. 

I'm all for strong economic principles. I just have a hard time seeing how Trump is the guy to fix the economy. And if he's not the guy to strengthen the economy, then why were so many people so quick to overlook his moral shortcomings? To be fair, I don't know that Kamala would have been strong on economic issues either, but I know she'd have the sense not to do the thing that virtually everyone who understands how our economy works is telling Trump not to do.

27 minutes ago, Traveler said:

We will how much our work ethic, morals and intelligence 

I don't believe for a second that anyone voted for Trump because they see even one of these qualities reflected in him.

[Carborendum]

12 minutes ago, Phoenix_person said:

I don't believe for a second that anyone voted for Trump because they see even one of these qualities reflected in him.

I found myself agreeing with most of what you said until I came to this ^ ^ line.

Yes, he is intelligent.  Yes, he has outstanding work ethic.

Morals?  Well... He certainly doesn't share LDS values.  But he does have some moral center about a lot of things (such as America First).  He also donates to charities and never even brags about it because he thinks it kind of ruins the donation. 

He tends to reflect the morals of the average working class American today (which as a Latter-day Saint, I'm very disappointed by).  But that's the way the country is.  What am I supposed to do about it?

Most so-called Christians are perfectly fine having premarital sex.  A large minority of so-called Christians are fine with cheating on a spouse.  And virtually all protestants I know are perfectly fine with telling lies about, showing outright disdain for, and issuing venom at those darned Mormons because they dare to believe in "a different Christ."

So, compare him the the average American, and you'll find he's pretty representative of them.  Not that this is necessarily a good thing. But what am I supposed to do about it?

BTW, did you know that he has never had a drink of alcohol or taken illicit drugs in his life?

Edited November 7 by Carborendum

[mikbone]

Id like to see more mining and use of American natural resources.  We don’t need lumber coming in from China.  

You can graze it, harvest it, or watch it burn.  Im freaking tired of the forest fires…

And I’m sick of the crappy plastic products coming in from overseas.  I wish we could produce quality products and craftsmen here in the states.

Hopefully AI and robots will help as well.  

Edited November 7 by mikbone

[Carborendum]

8 minutes ago, mikbone said:

Id like to see more mining and use of Americas natural resources.  We don’t need lumber coming in from China.  

You can graze it, harvest it, or watch it burn.  Im freaking tired of the forest fires…

And I’m sick of the crappy plastic products coming in from overseas.  I wish we could produce quality products and craftsmen here in the states.

Hopefully AI and robots will help as well.  

Robots might be the answer.  And we'd have to hire US workers to maintain them.  So, we get cheap labor and we can still employ US workers.  I could see that working.

[mikbone]

Bureaucrats are passive aggressive obstructionists to forward progress.

Get out of the way and lets us make America great again.

Thank you.

[Vort]

9 hours ago, Phoenix_person said:

9 hours ago, Traveler said:

We will how much our work ethic, morals and intelligence 

I don't believe for a second that anyone voted for Trump because they see even one of these qualities reflected in him.

You are wrong. Whatever you may think of Trump, if you cannot see his work ethic or intelligence, it is because you are blind. If you can look at Kamala Harris and detect these qualities yet not see them in Trump—yes, even the morals part—then you are incapable of perceiving things as they really are.

[JohnsonJones]

15 hours ago, Carborendum said:

This assumes that every job that is posted will get filled.  Unfortunately, there is an entire generation that is refusing to work.  That creates a worker shortage.  

This is a problem.

Let's say that Musk and certain Republican analysts are correct in their assumptions for a moment (I know you do always, but others don't).

Studies show it's not necessarily a worker shortage, but a pay shortage.  When employers are willing to pay enough money, that worker shortage they had, disappears.

This is where the adjustment that Musk has talked about will happen.  At first, there will be a great deal of pain.  The reason is that the price of goods are going to skyrocket.

Part (and just part) of this is because employers are used to paying someone $6000 USD a year to do a job, whereas an American worker want's something that people may call a living wage.  The Median Wage is around 60K today, so let's use that number as the number that Workers in the US will be willing to work at the same job their Chinese counterparts are willing to work for.  That's 6X the amount (and that's before insurance or other costs are factored in). 

Using that amount, and just that amount, if we look at a TV that you could buy for $298 today.  A quick look shows I could get a 55" or 65" TV for that amount today.  However, the price of if with the workers would increase.  Let's say, the same percentage, so that TV now costs almost $3000. 

If we go back 30 to 40 years this is not a surprising price.  It is sticker shock today. 

So, if I understand what Musk is saying, there is going to be a massive hardship with the economy at first.  Eventually people and the economy will adapt and that will make things better, but it will be extremely hard at first.

It's not that there is a worker shortage, but a shortage of pay.  Pay what a worker feels they should be paid (or more) and you will get the workers.  However, doing this will probably cause a general rise in prices overall in those categories. 

That's saying they are correct in their assumptions (and many are saying they are not correct).

A bigger danger is a retalitory Tariff.  In theory, the Tariff is put in place so domestic goods can compete with foreign goods.  When we do that with farm goods, that has a deleterious effect on American farmers.  Many of the independent farmers still operate on the Razor's edge.  When other nations put Tariffs on American goods, foreign goods of the same type (such as Brazilian crops) get more attractive.  Suddenly, American Farmers cannot sell their goods and there is a glut on the market.  If we do away with subsidies and other things that help prop up the price of the crops they sell, than the price of those crops go down.

This is good...one may think...this means food costs less.  With some items, it probably will...at first.  Until those farmers go bankrupt and their crops are no longer produced because there is no market that can sustain them.  Then, as the price goes up again, but without as many there, with an overcorrection, it may mean the price goes higher than before and matches what would cost to export.  Then foreign food is cheaper, we import food, and suddenly we are producing no food anymore and prices rise again because we have no way to combat it with out own farmers. 

It's a vicious cycle, and some economists are predicting that if we slap a Tariff on all goods coming to the US it will cause a Tariff war, and that will take a massive amount of adjustment to get used to. 

[Traveler]

22 hours ago, Carborendum said:

This assumes that every job that is posted will get filled.  Unfortunately, there is an entire generation that is refusing to work.  That creates a worker shortage.  

This is a problem.

I resemble that remark.

I've had the misfortune of working with many foreign engineers.  Yes, they can calculate and do math.  But it is a rare foreign engineer who actually understands how to design for efficiency while maintaining quality.  For some reason, the US engineers in general are more capable of seeing overall patterns that foreign engineers cannot.  There is a reason for that.  Judgement.  Americans have the capacity to judge what to sacrifice for what benefits.  Other countries simply don't do that on the same level.  I don't know why.  I just know that this is what I've seen again and again.  Some American engineers who are not as good at the technical aspects can certainly make better overall judgments than foreign engineers who are math wizards and have near photographic memories.

So, if the world walks down that road, we'll have the "better ending than mending" attitude.  Heck, most Americans already do.  And that is one thing that is impoverishing a population that should be the wealthiest in the world.

Aside from that, the questions remain:

• How much will tariffs raise prices domestically in the short term?  @Phoenix_person has posted a source.  I have no reason to question it at this point.  It indicated approximately a 10% to 15% increase in all those sectors reported.
• How much will tariffs raise prices domestically in the long term?  I don't know.

One thing I do know is that American products tend to be more durable than foreign products.  I buy a microwave made in China for $100, it lasts a year or two.  I buy a US microwave for $150, it lasts 5 or 6 years.  This is just a top of my head example.  So, the reality may vary.  But I believe the sense of it is correct.  If we buy more American goods, we'll probably be better off financially as individual households than if we buy from China.

Further, if we buy more US goods, then more US personnel will be employed.  Then they can spend more money in the US raising everyone's real wages.

The thing is that this is such a complex question that it is difficult to analyze without being a dedicated economist.  I'm not one.  So, I can only consider tried and true principles as a whole.

Free market is ideal when everyone plays by the same rules.  But when corporations in one country are forced to play by easier rules than corporations in other countries, that is not a free market.  It favors the easier ruled country.  So, given that, what are we to do?  Fight fire with fire?  That's essentially what tariffs are.  I don't know if it will benefit or harm in the long run.  Both the idea of tariffs and the idea of playing by unequal rules are not good principles to live by.

I would submit that a tariff does no more to a county’s economy (causes increases in costs of goods) than an equivalent local corporate tax.  Why then, would @Phoenix_person support increasing the highest corporate tax in the first and second world country economies but then is opposed to targeted tariffs that are hardly half the local corporate tax?

 

The Traveler

[Traveler]

22 hours ago, NeuroTypical said:

I've worked in a certain group for a global fortune 500 company for two decades.  When I got there, we had R&D happening in 4 countries.  The production was mostly done in one of these low cost countries.  

2 decades later, even with new management every 5 years, and the occasional economic downturn forcing restructuring, we still have R&D happening in the same 4 countries in roughly the same proportions.  A bit more in the US than before, actually.   

I don't know how representative my experience or yours is across industries, but the trend may not be something that happens everywhere.  

I have done extensive work over my lifetime in the silicon fabrication industry, auto industry, paper industry, electronics, medals industry, appliance industry, farm equipment manufacturing, heavy equipment manufacturing, aircraft manufacturing and food processing industry.  With few exceptions (like the Sagana steering gear manufacturing facility for the auto industry) most parts are manufactured in foreign countries with assembly in the USA to circumvent tariffs.

I also am aware that 40 to 50 years ago the top engineers in foreign industrial countries were educated in US colleges.  Currently only the bottom engineers in the same foreign industrial countries are educated in US collages.   What is even more sad is that those bottom foreign students from foreign industrial countries are outperforming the top students in the USA – especially those from Asia.

I am aware that China has difficulty with modern manufacturing tolerances that degrade the longevity of their products – but they are improving.  I am confident that if current trends continue that within a decade China’s products will outperform comparable US products.

 

The Traveler

[Traveler]

22 hours ago, Phoenix_person said:

I was working in the beer industry under Trump. They saw a lot of prices for aluminum cans increase due to his tariffs. Same thing when I worked at Pepsi during COVID. A lot of domestic manufacturers rely on imported raw materials. I'm all for fixing that and making American manufacturing great again, but it's never going to happen if your first move is to kneecap the supply chain of existing domestic industries. Fix the problems of resources and domestic labor first, then we can talk about strengthening our economy through protective tariffs.

BTW, I am extremely hard-pressed to find an economist or international trade expert who thinks Trump's tariffs are a good idea. And no offense, but I trust their input more than a guy on an internet forum. 

https://econofact.org/factbrief/did-the-trump-tariffs-increase-us-manufacturing-jobs

Huh?

I'm all for strong economic principles. I just have a hard time seeing how Trump is the guy to fix the economy. And if he's not the guy to strengthen the economy, then why were so many people so quick to overlook his moral shortcomings? To be fair, I don't know that Kamala would have been strong on economic issues either, but I know she'd have the sense not to do the thing that virtually everyone who understands how our economy works is telling Trump not to do.

I don't believe for a second that anyone voted for Trump because they see even one of these qualities reflected in him.

The aluminum and steel manufacturing has been demolished in the USA just in my lifetime.   We export raw materials to import aluminum and steel products.  Science has improved a great deal in manufacturing, but this country is overregulated.  For example, we have not allowed a single new petroleum refinery in the USA in over 5 decades. 

Really?  You think that Harris's work ethic, morals and intelligence surpasses Trump’s?  I will grant you that Trump has a problem with morals even though it is yet to be proven in a court of law despite what was ruled in New York.  I would like to see any real estate appraisal use by any banking interest based exclusively on previous tax appraisals.  For the forum’s information – last year I sold a real estate company – and yes I paid a fortune in cap gains.

 

The Traveler

[Phoenix_person]

1 hour ago, Traveler said:

Why then, would @Phoenix_person support increasing the highest corporate tax in the first and second world country economies but then is opposed to targeted tariffs that are hardly half the local corporate tax?

 

The Traveler

My personal take on corporate taxes is that there should be corresponding tax breaks for employers that meet very specific pro-labor metrics. Those metrics would be fiscally costly to employers to an extent, but would save them money in taxes. Ideally, the dollar amount in tax breaks would approximately equal the amount they would spend to earn them. I don't know how viable that would be in practice, but the idea is that you can spend x amount directly benefiting your workforce, or you can give that sum to the tax man. I don't see either major party being on board with a plan like that in my lifetime. Reaganomics is too deeply-ingrained in our economic model, despite being thoroughly debunked.

[Phoenix_person]

 

1 minute ago, Traveler said:

Really?  You think that Harris's work ethic, morals and intelligence surpasses Trump’s? 

It's a very low bar, but yes.

 

To be clear, because it bears repeating, neither Biden nor Harris were in my top 3 Dem picks in the 2020 Dem primary, and I voted uncommitted this year. I think the party can do much better than either of them. I voted for Kamala because she represents the party I most closely align with, not because she personally represents my values. A lot of Republicans, even those who had to hold their nose a bit with their Trump vote, seem to struggle with the fact that Dems don't revere their leaders the way that Republicans do. You view the president as the head of the party. I view the president as the figurehead through which the party operates. 

1 minute ago, Traveler said:

I will grant you that Trump has a problem with morals even though it is yet to be proven in a court of law despite what was ruled in New York. 

You don't need a judge or a jury to tell you that Donny is an amoral man.

[LDSGator]

6 minutes ago, Phoenix_person said:

You don't need a judge or a jury to tell you that Donny is an amoral man.

Pretty much the one thing that everyone agrees with is that Trump has moral lapses. We all do of course, but he’s had….issues.
 

Very very few of us here would be proud of him if he was our dad or son.