P_Day

I'm sticking with my previous prediction: 14th Apostle: 1 from among Elders Nash, Pearson, Perkins, or Pieper 15th Apostle: 1 from among Elders Gonzalez, Kearon, Soares, or Uceda

It's not technically a requirement that it be the most senior Apostle, but that's the way it's been throughout the history of the Church. The only requirement is unanimity among the 14 Quorum members.

Updated predictions President of Church: President Nelson (not a given) Counselors: Presidents Eyring and Uchtdorf retained 14th Apostle: 1 from among Elders Nash, Pearson, Perkins, or Pieper 15th Apostle: 1 from among Elders Gonzalez, Kearon, Soares, or Uceda

Do you think they will select the 2 new Apostles when the First Presidency is reorganized or wait until April General Conference? I think it would be odd to reorganize the First Presidency, but not also take the opportunity to fill out the last 2 spots in the Quorum of the 12.

You're right. I've made changes above.

As for the next Apostle, here are my top 30 candidates ranked by likelihood, even within tiers. All are General Authority Seventies unless otherwise noted. My criteria to arrive at this list included age, length of service, leadership experience, and (to a much lesser degree) education. Full thread here. TIER 1: Soares (P70), Christensen (P70) TIER 2: Gong (P70), Robbins (P70), Causse (PB) TIER 3: Kearon (P70), Gonzalez, Uceda (P70), Davies (PB), Waddell (PB) TIER 4: Aidukaitis, Gavarret, Zeballos, Duncan, Perkins, Pieper, Pearson, Nash, Nielson, Alonso, Bennett, Cook, De Hoyos, Sitati TIER 5: Whiting, Curtis Jr., Worthen (BYU), Maynes, Clayton (P70), Snow TIER 6: 18 candidates. Unlikely to be selected, but have an outside chance. TIER 7: 12 candidates. Very unlikely to be selected. TIER 8: 37 candidates (including Henry J Eyring of BYU-Idaho). I would be shocked if anyone from this tier was selected.

I looked at how likely each Apostle is to be the President of the Church at some point. This takes into account their age, position in seniority, and age/health of more senior Apostles. I have put the other 13 Apostles into 4 Tiers. Tier 1: Very Likely President Nelson, Elders Holland and Bednar Tier 2: Somewhat Likely Elders Oaks and Stevenson Tier 3: Unlikely Elders Anderson, Rasband, and Renlund Tier 4: Very Unlikely Elder Ballard, President Eyring, Elders Cook and Christofferson This is based off of the prediction that the next 5 Presidents of the Church will be: President Nelson --> Elder Oaks --> Elder Holland --> Elder Bednar --> Elder Stevenson

There have been 18 Apostles called since the Presidency of the Seventy was organized as it exists today (10/1/76). The average and median age of those 18 at the time of their calling as Apostle is 60.0 years old. Only 3 were younger than 55 (Oaks 52.1, Bednar 52.3, and Holland 53.6; all of whom were BYU Presidents) and 2 were older than 65 (Cook 67.1 and Wirthlin 69.3; both from P70). If we look only at the 9 Apostles called by either Hinckley or Monson, the average age rises to 61.5 years old, with the median up to 62.9. The average tenure as a General Authority or BYU President was 10.1 years and median tenure was 10.0 years. Only 1 had 0 GA/BYU Pres. experience (Nelson). If we look only at the 9 Apostles called by either Hinckley or Monson, the average tenure rises to 11.1 years, with the median up to 10.5. All but 2 of the 18 Apostles have served in 'special' positions. These positions are a) in the Presidency of the Seventy, b) in the Presiding BIshopric, or c) as a BYU President. If we look only at the 9 Apostles called by either Hinckley or Monson, that number is reduced to 1 (Renlund; Nelson is the other and was called by Kimball). As far as my research indicates, education is only minimally relevant. 11 of the 18 Apostles have 'advanced' degrees (61%). These degrees are a) MBA, b) JD, c) MD, or d) PhD. If we look only at the 9 Apostles called by either Hinckley or Monson, that percentage rises to 67% (Uchtdorf, Rasband, and Stevenson do not have advanced degrees; Maxwell, Wirthlin, and Scott are the others without advanced degrees). So what does all of this research tell me? It tells me that the First Presidency and Quorum of the Twelve look for brethren who have significant experience as leaders in trusted Church positions and have been trained to make critical decisions.

I posted this simply to hear some thoughts from others in the community about who they thought would be the next Apostle. I highly doubt anyone outside the Quorum of the Twelve has ever been asked for their opinion about who should be called as an Apostle. I believe that the Apostles who do make that decision are clearly inspired in their decision. However, I also believe that the Apostles are men who must study decisions out in their minds and then ask the Lord if those decisions are right. It is evident to me from my analysis that a few criteria are relevant to the decision of whom to call as a replacement Apostle: age, length of service, and (to a much lesser degree) education. Seen as an attempt to analyze the 'studying' part of the Apostles' decision, and not as a request for insider information, this post need not be a fruitless exercise.

What do you mean "no reason to change with this current Apostle"?

Top 30 candidates ranked by likelihood, even within tiers. All are General Authority Seventies unless otherwise noted. TIER 1: Soares (P70), Christensen (P70) TIER 2: Gong (P70), Robbins (P70), Causse (PB) TIER 3: Kearon (P70), Gonzalez, Uceda (P70), Davies (PB), Waddell (PB) TIER 4: Aidukaitis, Gavarret, Zeballos, Duncan, Perkins, Pieper, Pearson, Nash, Nielson, Alonso, Bennett, Cook, De Hoyos, Sitati TIER 5: Whiting, Curtis Jr., Worthen (BYU), Maynes, Clayton (P70), Snow TIER 6: 18 candidates. Unlikely to be selected, but have an outside chance. TIER 7: 12 candidates. Very unlikely to be selected. TIER 8: 37 candidates (including Henry J Eyring of BYU-Idaho). I would be shocked if anyone from this tier was selected.

When do you think the next Apostle will be called to replace Elder Hales? Who do you think it will be? Reply with your guesses to both questions. I'll start. WHEN: I think they will wait until April Conference. WHO: Soares, Christensen, Gong, or Aidukaitis