Duterte declares Martial Law

[anatess2]

Okay, I'm sure that is shocking to many people.  So, I'm going to put this in here because... mainstream media sucks.

Facts:

• Duterte campaigned with the Martial Law option on his platform.  He was elected and retained 85% approval ratings.  It dropped to the 70's after the impeachment submission but he still enjoys 90+ approval ratings in Mindanao.
• Mindanao is the hotbed of insurgencies - both Islamic terrorists and Communists.  The Communist insurgency in Mindanao caused Marcos to declare Martial Law.  Mindanao loved Marcos because of it.  This is a cultural difference between the North and the South.  The Southern people retained a lot of their tribal culture and prefer iron-hand discipline than diplomacy.  Duterte is from Mindanao.
• After Marcos got ousted, the Philippines installed a new Constitution. This Constitution revised the provisions of Martial Law with limits and check and balances.
• A President cannot use Martial Law anymore to establish a Revolutionary Government because of these limits:
  • Martial Law has a maximum lifespan of 60 days.
  • The President has to appear before Congress every 48 hours to report on progress and justify continued necessity of Martial Law.
  • The Supreme Court can end Martial Law if Congress proves that the President failed to sufficiently justify the necessity of Martial Law.
• Duterte declared Martial Law for all regions of Mindanao because of the following events:
  • Islamic terrorism continues to be a problem.  Duterte's successes in the drug war has caused Islamic terrorists to become desperate as drugs is a major source of their funding.  As a result, Islamic groups have expanded their kidnap and ransom operations.  Islamic terrorists loyal to ISIS killed 2 Canadians last year and a German this year due to Canadian and German governments not paying ransom.  They took hundreds of tourists in the island of Bohol last month which the local government in cooperation with the military managed to win back.  This time, they took an entire city in Mindanao, ousted the local government, and are currently occupying city hall.
  • Duterte declared Martial Law to provide swift response without need of warrants, etc., for Filipino citizen combatants and civilian structures.

My personal opinion:

Yes, the people of Mindanao are cheering Duterte, hopeful that this will finally put an end to the insurgencies.  I am skeptical.  This is not our first rodeo with insurgencies post-Marcos.  We were able to capture AbuSayyaf leaders and win fights without the need for Martial Law.  Yes, this is different because they are currently occupying a local government so I can see how suspension of habeas corpus can provide swift resolution.  But, I am skeptical that the Duterte Administration can provide final resolution to this issue through Martial Law.  Rather, it will be like before - a temporary reprieve until the next Islamic terrorist leader shows up.  The people of Mindanao are enthusiastically cheering right now because they have high hopes that FINALLY they'll have peace very very soon.  Their very own Papa Digong is finally going to show his iron-hand.  This has been going on for half a century.  I doubt it's going to go away in 60 days.  Drugs or no drugs.

In addition, the "sophisticated North" are all a-triggered.  "Those barbaric Southerners!".  This will give more strength to the Oligarchs with their UN backing and give plenty of ready-made media propaganda soundbites.

I'll report back in 60 days.

 

Edited May 24, 2017 by anatess2

[Just_A_Guy]

You're going to be shocked to hear me say this, but . . . I'm not prepared to say that martial law was the wrong call.  It sounds like things are pretty bad in that part of the country. 

The thousand-dollar questions are what precisely will be done under the auspices of martial law; and what the situation will look like when the crisis is over.

[anatess2]

13 minutes ago, Just_A_Guy said:

You're going to be shocked to hear me say this, but . . . I'm not prepared to say that martial law was the wrong call.  It sounds like things are pretty bad in that part of the country. 

The thousand-dollar questions are what precisely will be done under the auspices of martial law; and what the situation will look like when the crisis is over.

Yes, I'm shocked!  I truly was expecting something in the lines of... Didn't I tell you Duterte is a bad hombre... or something like that.

Yes, that's a concern with any suspension of habeas corpus.  Power is always abused.  ALWAYS.  But I'm not as concerned about that (with the character of Duterte and the safeguards in place) as I am concerned that Duterte's braggadocio is raising false hopes with the people who trusts him the most.  Yes, nobody understands Duterte's braggadocio more than his own people.  But, when you've been dealing with this stuff for decades that desperate desire for peace can cloud things.  The last thing the Philippines needs is a shattering of unity in the South.

Edited May 24, 2017 by anatess2

[Guest Godless]

1 hour ago, anatess2 said:

  Duterte's successes in the drug war has caused Islamic terrorists to become desperate as drugs is a major source of their funding.

How much of that "success" is the result of the extra-judicial killings that Duterte may or may not have personally ordered (and FWIW, I haven't read much to indicate that he did)? I'm not as familiar with the situation as you are, so I'm honestly curious. 

Overall, I don't hate the martial law decision based on what I know about the situation there, which admittedly isn't much.

[anatess2]

33 minutes ago, Godless said:

How much of that "success" is the result of the extra-judicial killings that Duterte may or may not have personally ordered (and FWIW, I haven't read much to indicate that he did)? I'm not as familiar with the situation as you are, so I'm honestly curious. 

Overall, I don't hate the martial law decision based on what I know about the situation there, which admittedly isn't much.

The Extra-Judicial Killings narrative is propaganda by the Duterte opposition - the leading voice of which just got convicted for running a drug distribution operation out of the national prison's basement.

This is what they're counting as EJK:

1.)  Drug dealers killed to prevent "squealing".  This is the majority of them.  This is what's going on - Duterte issued sanctuary for all drug dealers to reform.  Drug dealers can go to police precincts, get registered, surrender their drugs, surrender information, and submit for rehab if addict.  The police will offer police protection.  On Duterte's first week in office alone, thousands of dealers surrendered to police precincts.  The precincts are not equipped to house all of them so they were sent home after registration and surrender of drugs.  These guys are getting killed by drug lord goons or government officials involved in the drug trade to prevent them from giving information.  Dealers who the drug lords think are going to squeal are getting killed before they can get registered.  Note that government corruption is so bad that drug money permeats local barangay captains (lowest government official) all the way to mayors, governors, congressmen, and senators.  We suspect it went all the way to previous Presidents.  We just can't prove it.  All the drug lords we've uncovered so far were all Chinese.

2.) Drug trade workers getting killed during raids.  Before Duterte, if a police officer kills somebody, the officer is put on leave without pay until the court case is completed.  Court cases during this time could last for years.  So, it was the standard procedure for police officers to flee the scene of crime rather than risk discharging his weapon because if the criminal gets killed his family wouldn't be able to eat.  Duterte changed this on his first day in office.  Now, police officers who kills somebody will be put on leave with pay.  Court cases are expedited so that innocent officers can go back to the field immediately.  So now, police officers will engage in surprise drug raids even when a shoot-out may occur.  This caused many drug trade workers to end up dead.

3.)  Vigilante killings.  Filipinos are very clannish.  Once some name floats up as being responsible for selling drugs to a family member, the family would go and kill these guys to avenge their family.  Duterte gave orders to put all these cases to the very bottom of the case load so that other cases - like police killing a criminal - can be expedited.  So his opposition counts these as EJK stating that Duterte is encouraging families to go ahead and kill drug dealers.  Now, to be honest, Duterte personally doesn't care if you kill a criminal.  But, at the same time, he is a very strict law-and-order guy, so if this gets out of hand, he'll come down harder on vigilantes.

Anyway, the current success of the drug war can be attributed to one reason - Duterte is succeeding in flushing out government corruption in the drug trade from all nooks and crannies of government.

Edited May 24, 2017 by anatess2

[Just_A_Guy]

The trouble I see with this argument (especially point #1) is, that Duterte himself seems to be openly applauding the bulk of the killings.

If he doesn't really support them, then there's another dark truth at work here: Duterte knows the people who are dying are not worthy of death; but he chooses to paint them as such rather than acknowledge that he can't stop the killings and keep his own people safe.  We (rightly) vilify Obama for mischaracterizing the attack at Benghazi so that he wouldn't have to admit he didn't have the terror situation there under control.  How much more egregious would it have been if Obama had suggested that the consulate staff got what they deserved because they were secretly trafficking in drugs/guns/some other contraband du jour?  That's pretty much what you allege Duterte is doing.

At any rate, it's kind of hard to argue argue that a drug war is a "success" if drug lords are killing people all over the country with impunity. 

Edited May 25, 2017 by Just_A_Guy

[anatess2]

12 hours ago, Just_A_Guy said:

The trouble I see with this argument (especially point #1) is, that Duterte himself seems to be openly applauding the bulk of the killings.

If he doesn't really support them, then there's another dark truth at work here: Duterte knows the people who are dying are not worthy of death; but he chooses to paint them as such rather than acknowledge that he can't stop the killings and keep his own people safe.  We (rightly) vilify Obama for mischaracterizing the attack at Benghazi so that he wouldn't have to admit he didn't have the terror situation there under control.  How much more egregious would it have been if Obama had suggested that the consulate staff got what they deserved because they were secretly trafficking in drugs/guns/some other contraband du jour?  That's pretty much what you allege Duterte is doing.

At any rate, it's kind of hard to argue argue that a drug war is a "success" if drug lords are killing people all over the country with impunity. 

Completely different culture.

In America, you have the luxury of saving everybody.  Nobody dies in America.  That's why you have to provide them healthcare... because, gasp!  They might die!

No such thing in the Philippines.  Dying in the Philippines is just a part of life.  People die of hunger over there.  In America people freak out if they find out somebody died of hunger.

So, a drug dealer got killed by the drug lord.  The normal Bisaya reaction is... well, he shouldn't have dealt drugs.  Now, those Northerners... they're more westernized.  They like to pretend sophistry - so they say, No no no, we need to be more compassionate to criminals... We Bisaya are bedrock pragmatic.  So pragmatic that we don't even have a Bisaya word for Hi.  Bisaya people don't bother saying Hi.  If they want to talk to you they'll go straight to the point or if they don't have anything to say to you they just stand there quiet.  These dealers are making addicts out of Bisaya children.  They don't care if they end up dead.  Well, except for their families.  They care.  They cry rivers at the funeral. But even the families would say, that stupid idiot shouldn't have dealt drugs!  Welcome to the Philippines.

 

Edited May 26, 2017 by anatess2