Is This Just A Conspiracy Rumor...

[shanstress70]

I heard about this on the radio this morning and have been reading up on it. I can find a ton of stuff on the Internet, but don't know if it's credible. Basically, they are saying that someone is betting $4.5 billion on a stock market crash by Friday, and that there are really only two reasons that could happen - a terrorist attack or China dumping US currency.

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=b96_1188081846&p=1

They also claim that the last time this happened, it was right before 9/11.

"Bear in mind that the last time anyone conducted such large and unusual stock option trades (like this one) was in the weeks before the attacks of September 11.

Back then, they bought huge numbers of PUTS on airline stocks in the same airlines whose planes were involved in the September 11 attacks. Despite knowing who made these trades, the Securities and Exchange Commission NEVER revealed who made the unusual trades and no one was ever publicly identified as being responsible for the trades which made upwards of $50 million when the attacks happened."

Probably just conspiracy crap, but I wanted to get others' thoughts on it.

[StrawberryFields]

Oh dear!

I thought it had something to do with the housing market....

[shanstress70]

Yes, SF... I was surprised that the housing market wasn't listed as a reason for this possible 'crash'. I've been reading a lot about that issue lately.

[StrawberryFields]

We are currently active in the housing market. We have been working with a mortgage broker and have heard rumors about the impending crash in the market. The idea that it could be this other stuff is really scary.

I am surprised it's only you and I Shan who have replied to this so far.

[sixpacktr]

It is hard to tell what will or will not happen. If it does, this guy will look like a prophet. If it doesn't, then it will be quickly forgotten.

The wisdom of a year supply of food and 3 months of money becomes more and more apparent every day...

[BenRaines]

I would say conspiracy theorist.

All the money that was bet on puts in large volumes days before 9/11 were never claimed by anyone. One reason the markets close when there are major catastrophies that are not natural is to see if someone was betting against a country or industry prior.

Those who bought puts on airline stocks in unusual amounts or who had never traded airline puts before are the ones who are first investigated.

As for the housing doom. It makes good headlines and causes hearts to break that that families are being thrown out of their American Dream. Truth be told most, not all, but most are investors who were speculating on buying and "flipping" houses so that they could be almost instant millionaires. Those who missed out on the "tech boom" were trying to make it in real estate.

I do not feel sorry for gamblers who lose and that is what the majority of them are and were, those gambling on making money in the housing market.

Ben Raines

[Annabelli]

Starting a big rumor would have as much impact as a jet plane. But a big rumor would not have as many innocent casualties. I'd rule out the terrorist as for the rumor.

[shanstress70]

I would say conspiracy theorist.

All the money that was bet on puts in large volumes days before 9/11 were never claimed by anyone. One reason the markets close when there are major catastrophies that are not natural is to see if someone was betting against a country or industry prior.

Those who bought puts on airline stocks in unusual amounts or who had never traded airline puts before are the ones who are first investigated.

As for the housing doom. It makes good headlines and causes hearts to break that that families are being thrown out of their American Dream. Truth be told most, not all, but most are investors who were speculating on buying and "flipping" houses so that they could be almost instant millionaires. Those who missed out on the "tech boom" were trying to make it in real estate.

I do not feel sorry for gamblers who lose and that is what the majority of them are and were, those gambling on making money in the housing market.

Ben Raines

A lot of those who can be hurt in the housing market issue are those who live in So. Cal. or other areas where the houses are 'through the roof' and the only way to buy a home was to get the adjustable rate so their payment is do-able at first. This is a bad choice for run of the mill homebuyers, but not everyone is savvy and they made a bad decision that will cause their home to be foreclosed. I feel bad for them, especially those who were young and just starting out.

It is hard to tell what will or will not happen. If it does, this guy will look like a prophet. If it doesn't, then it will be quickly forgotten.

The wisdom of a year supply of food and 3 months of money becomes more and more apparent every day...

I agree... guess we'll know in two days. I personally don't think anything will happen, but it's good to be prepared for a situation like this, storms, attacks, whatever. The whole food storage thing is one of the LDS teachings that I've kept.

[Doctor Steuss]

Yes, SF... I was surprised that the housing market wasn't listed as a reason for this possible 'crash'. I've been reading a lot about that issue lately.

The housing market is too much of a monolith to simply turn the market on a dime (pun not intended). It might contribute to an eventual recession, but the market in and of itself won’t be the cause of a “crash,” it will be the public’s perceived notions of the market that will cause the “crash.”

Right now is actually one of the best times to buy a home (low mortgage rates [if you actually pay your bills on time], and low home prices, as well as market saturation); however, it takes time for the public mindset to switch. Once the public mindset begins to realize that it is actually a good time to buy a home, things will begin to rebound.

The overall economy has much more to worry about than the housing market, IMO.

[shanstress70]

What about this other stuff, Dr S? Do you think it's all conspiracy nonsense? I'm starting to think it is, as I haven't seen anything about it in credible media sources.

[Doctor Steuss]

What about this other stuff, Dr S? Do you think it's all conspiracy nonsense? I'm starting to think it is, as I haven't seen anything about it in credible media sources.

Dunno. I usually treat this stuff kind of like the Second Coming. I live like it will happen tomorrow, but prepare as if it will happen when I'm old and grey (or perhaps not in my lifetime at all).

China dumping all of the US $ that they have could certainly cause us to fall on some hard times.

[Jbs2763]

the only mortgage crisis is "sub prime" mortgages, traditional are fine, the only people getting foreclosed on are the ones that bought way too much house with an adjustable rate, or an interest only loan. i know a guy who's mortgage has adusted from 500/mo to 1800/mo.....guess he shoulda read that contract closer,

as for the chineese dumping cash, "we" owe them so much in trade deficit, and Clinton isn't there to barter with nuclear secrets.....besiides, the Chinese Army is in Mexico training (not the whole chinese army, that would be like 200,000,000 people, just a divison or so.

[shanstress70]

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What about this other stuff, Dr S? Do you think it's all conspiracy nonsense? I'm starting to think it is, as I haven't seen anything about it in credible media sources.

Dunno. I usually treat this stuff kind of like the Second Coming. I live like it will happen tomorrow, but prepare as if it will happen when I'm old and grey (or perhaps not in my lifetime at all).

China dumping all of the US $ that they have could certainly cause us to fall on some hard times.

Very true, but it seems to me that China would never do that with all that we import from them. I know we aren't the only country importing from them, but surely we make a huge dent. Would they really make a decision like that, resulting in such an impact for themselves? Or am I seeing our country as more important than we really are... in classic American fashion?

the only mortgage crisis is "sub prime" mortgages, traditional are fine, the only people getting foreclosed on are the ones that bought way too much house with an adjustable rate, or an interest only loan. i know a guy who's mortgage has adusted from 500/mo to 1800/mo.....guess he shoulda read that contract closer,

This is true, Jaime, but there are millions of those 'sub primes' out there. Like I said, it may have been a bad move, but it would be horrible for them lose their homes, as I think a lot of them are people just starting out and not able to buy a house any other way, in places like L.A. or San Fran.

[sixpacktr]

One thing we have to realize: China is a communist country. They are committed to our overthrow, however they can do it. These aren't a bunch of 'benevolent' dictators, looking out for their country's best interests...

We will, one day, have to fight them. I hope not, but I don't see how we won't, unless this country repents and allows the Lord to fight our battles for us, much like he did Israel and the Nephites when they were righteous...