So, Rare Earth Metals

[Guest Mores]

There's been a lot of talk about China's trade weapon "Rare Earth Metals".  Of what few sites I read, I found the following from Fortune to be somewhat insightful.

http://fortune.com/2019/05/29/china-rare-earth-metals-trade-war/

It doesn't appear to be much of a threat at all.  Knowing Trump, I'd bet he'd be more than happy to have the US use the resources on our own soil rather than import them.  More business in the US.  I know the mining industry has not seen as much of a bounce back as other heavy industries have under his presidency.

But we just need to get past the environmental issues.  For the record, I don't believe these are trivial.  They can be very toxic if not handled properly.  This is one reason why China is a big producer.  They really don't care about the environment.

Let's see what happens.

[anatess2]

There may  not be any need to mine specifically for the stuff.

https://techconnectwv.org/rare-earth-elements-potential-new-industry-for-wv-pa/

[Guest Mores]

1 hour ago, anatess2 said:

There may  not be any need to mine specifically for the stuff.

https://techconnectwv.org/rare-earth-elements-potential-new-industry-for-wv-pa/

That's awesome!  Can you imaging getting to the table with the Chinese all smug thinking they've got Trump by his... comb-over.  And Trump says,"Well, I guess we'll just have to make do with turning our coal waste into the stuff we're paying you to mine, process, and ship overseas to us."  -- Classic.

On the other hand, I don't see the Chinese as being that ignorant of our economy.  They've got to know, right?  Is this just posturing?

Edited May 30, 2019 by Mores

[anatess2]

2 minutes ago, Mores said:

That's awesome!  Can you imaging getting to the table with the Chinese all smug thinking they've got Trump by his... toupee.  And trump says,"Well, I guess we'll just have to make do with turning our coal waste into the stuff we're paying you to mine, process, and ship overseas to us."  -- Classic.

On the other hand, I don't see the Chinese as being that ignorant of our economy.  They've got to know, right?  Is this just posturing?

The Chinese knows the US and EU are handcuffed by the UNEP, EPA, and the Environmentalist lobby.  Everybody talks about Russian collusion yet they all ignore Chinese collusion in the US political process.  And then Trump happened.

[Guest Mores]

4 minutes ago, anatess2 said:

And then Trump happened.

While I had not looked at it that way, don't you think that still underscores my point?  They know that Trump is a different animal.  So, why are they using the same tactics?

Now it is a question of economics.  There are REAL environmental issues with casual handling of these metals.  We still need to enforce some standards here.  Will that cost so much that it will make up for having to pay for China to mine, process, and ship to the US?  All that which we're already paying China to do has to cost a lot.  I would think that reasonable environmental measures wouldn't cost that much.  And this is Trump's EPA, too.

Edited May 30, 2019 by Mores

[Guest Mores]

Now Soybeans are the big issue.  This at least shows China understands that this will shake up Trump's base.

They're buying soy from Brazil now.  And Brazil is grateful as they're in a terrible recession right now.  But I have a hunch that Brazil will mess things up just like they messed up their oil market.

[anatess2]

6 minutes ago, Mores said:

While I had not looked at it that way, don't you think that still underscores my point?  They know that Trump is a different animal.  So, why are they using the same tactics?

Because the Global Media and the US political landscape are playing their game.  Impeachment is being talked about and Biden is assuring them they can wait the year out.  China knows Trump is most likely to get reelected.  But right now, they are playing their cards on the off-chance the globalists will eek out a miracle move and manage to block bad orange man's power.  In the meantime, Trump gets wow optics out of Japan and is squeezing Biden through the DPRK!  I'm telling you, Trump is a rare animal in the political realm.  The Art of the Deal is outshined by the Deal of the Trump Presidency.  Only Trump can get the Chinese-controlled DPRK to play to his cards!  China manages to eek out a missile test out of Kim but then Trump gets Kim to join his troll card adding chaos to the rhetoric!  Trolling is, of course, more viral than the boring missile tests.  Even Duterte gets a slice of the action by dumping on Soros.  

Anyway, this is still on an escalating trajectory.  China is a massive heavyweight when it comes to trade negotiations and they have the luxury of state-controlled industry with a head of state that has no term limit.  But then the nationalist populist wind is blowing all over the planet so China is losing peaceful playing cards fast.  Meanwhile, Trump still has the Taiwan card to play...

I have to say, though, Trump will lose if China runs out of peaceful cards and decides to move to the war room.  China knows this.

 

6 minutes ago, Mores said:

Now it is a question of economics.  There are REAL environmental issues with casual handling of these metals.  We still need to enforce some standards here.  Will that cost so much that it will make up for having to pay for China to mine, process, and ship to the US?  All that which we're already paying China to do has to cost a lot.  I would think that reasonable environmental measures wouldn't cost that much.  And this is Trump's EPA, too.

The real environmental issues is a game of where's the pearl.  The globalist rhetoric is that all the rich countries can afford responsible industry while developing countries like China cannot.  So they allow China to practice sub-standard industry practices with impunity while continuing to levy punitive actions against sub-standard practices in rich countries.  But - it is one planet.  Not a different planet for rich countries and a different one for developing countries.  So, political environmentalism is actually BAD for the planet.  REAL environmentalists will fight to kill off the Chinese industry so that the rich countries who can afford environmental responsibility can produce the stuff which is better for the planet.  But these environmentalists don't get the time of day in global media.

[anatess2]

7 minutes ago, Mores said:

Now Soybeans are the big issue.  This at least shows China understands that this will shake up Trump's base.

They're buying soy from Brazil now.  And Brazil is grateful as they're in a terrible recession right now.  But I have a hunch that Brazil will mess things up just like they messed up their oil market.

Good move.  But that's gonna be a non-issue in my opinion.  First, because Bolsonaro who is a tight Trump ally is still polling high in Brazil.  And 2nd, China can't win trade negotiations through a tariff war because US is a net-buyer whereas China is a net-seller.  Or in another words - China needs to sell to US consumers more than the US needs to buy from China.  And Trump talks directly to his base through his twitter feed which cannot be manipulated by People's Daily or CNN.  And that is why China merely expressed a plan to halt soy purchase without actually doing it yet.  They're showing the card on the table to see who blinks before they decide to play it.

[Guest Mores]

1 hour ago, anatess2 said:

Good move.  But that's gonna be a non-issue in my opinion.  First, because Bolsonaro who is a tight Trump ally is still polling high in Brazil.  And 2nd, China can't win trade negotiations through a tariff war because US is a net-buyer whereas China is a net-seller.  Or in another words - China needs to sell to US consumers more than the US needs to buy from China.  And Trump talks directly to his base through his twitter feed which cannot be manipulated by People's Daily or CNN.  And that is why China merely expressed a plan to halt soy purchase without actually doing it yet.  They're showing the card on the table to see who blinks before they decide to play it.

If I understood both of your previous posts correctly, you're basically saying that China is not playing an economic game, but a political one.  They're doing what they can to make sure Trump gets out of office so they can deal with an easier President and win economically later.  Right?

Perfectly reasonable conclusion.  But who can hold out economically long enough for the political war to be won?

Edited May 30, 2019 by Mores

[anatess2]

21 minutes ago, Mores said:

If I understood both of your previous posts correctly, you're basically saying that China is not playing an economic game, but a political one.  They're doing what they can to make sure Trump gets out of office so they can deal with an easier President and win economically later.  Right?

Perfectly reasonable conclusion.  But who can hold out economically long enough for the political war to be won?

China plays the political game to achieve its economic goals.  That's the sole purpose of China's relationship with the DPRK and Iran.  They don't necessarily need to take Trump out of office.  They just need to keep the public perception and his Congress fighting against him so China won't be forced to accept changes to the status quo and Trump getting the changes implemented through a Fast Track in Congress.  The current effective trade deals and joint ventures is highly favorable to China.  China is strong enough to last through a year and a half more years, maybe even 5 and a half more years of a tariff war (which is the only thing Trump can do without Congress).  So a US-China trade deal is a looooooonnngg way away.  I doubt it will happen before 2020 elections regardless of Trump's prowess on the negotiating table.

 

Edited May 30, 2019 by anatess2

[Just_A_Guy]

Brazil, as they said when I served my mission there, is the country of the future—and always will be.