what are the odds?

[john doe]

Surprisingly, that's technically incorrect. The probability that this man in question will be given the recommend is either 0 or 1. He is one instance and cannot receive a partial recommend.

Now, if 100 men in an identical situation were to interview for a recommend, we could state something about the probability. But in one instance, we have no way of knowing what will happen.

Math guys always have a way of killing conversations by getting too technical.

[RipplecutBuddha]

Wouldn't the probability of either 1 or 0 automatically establish a 50/50 situation?

(just putting in my two cents)

[MarginOfError]

Wouldn't the probability of either 1 or 0 automatically establish a 50/50 situation?

(just putting in my two cents)

No. What you've just presented is the world's most common misinterpretation of probability.

[MarginOfError]

Math guys always have a way of killing conversations by getting too technical.

We can't help ourselves. It's our only hope of ever sounding like we know what we're talking about.

[FunkyTown]

We can't help ourselves. It's our only hope of ever sounding like we know what we're talking about.

I believe that you have oversimplified this, Moe!

Percentages do, in fact, come in to play in this single instance.

Consider this: If we assume that his bishop has:

Braincells >1

And:

We'll let Brain cells=B

B>1

And each brain cell has a chance of misfiring and/or providing incorrect information.

We'll represent the odds of a brain cell misfire as BC.

If the brain requires a majority of brain cells involved to not misfire in order to provide the correct answer, then the answer becomes:

SHOULD he receive the Melchizidek priesthood?

We'll represent the Melchizidek Priesthood with MP

If MP=1, then the odds become:

MP=1*BC/B

If MP=0, the odds become:

MP=1*(1-BC/B )

This represents your odds. Congratulations!

Of course, I'm not a mathy. How accurate was that, Moe?

Edited February 16, 2010 by FunkyTown
Stupid sunglasses!

[Blackmarch]

a twenty-two year old man who has not and is not going on a mission, goes into his bishop for a temple recommend for his own endowments, what are his odds that the bishop will allow this? assume the man is in good standing with the church, in the military, college graduate, and not getting married anytime soon.

endowments do not hinge on going on a mission, so I 'd say that man has a real good chance.

[Guest mysticmorini]

endowments do not hinge on going on a mission, so I 'd say that man has a real good chance.

this is true, however I've heard it said that endowments are such that one needs a reason to receive them like getting married or going on a mission. is military service a sufficient reason?

[Blackmarch]

this is true, however I've heard it said that endowments are such that one needs a reason to receive them like getting married or going on a mission. is military service a sufficient reason?

Yes.

I had a cousin who got his before entering the Marine service.

[marts1]

The temple ordainances are performed for salvation. If someone joins the church at 70 years of age he will be advised to go to the temple as soon as possible.:)

[john doe]

We can't help ourselves. It's our only hope of ever sounding like we know what we're talking about.

........And the laugh button has been removed........ again

[john doe]

The temple ordainances are performed for salvation. If someone joins the church at 70 years of age he will be advised to go to the temple as soon as possible.:)

As long as he shows the maturity to be likely be able to live up to the covenants contained therein.

[marts1]

I tend to cut things short being a 1 finger speed typer.:)

[Guest mysticmorini]

As long as he shows the maturity to be likely be able to live up to the covenants contained therein.

those septuagenarians can be a rowdy bunch

[Wingnut]

Math guys always have a way of killing conversations by getting too technical.

You have no idea.

[Islander]

I suggest that the Bishop would be well equipped to make a determination even when no specific "rule" exists on the matter. We go back to the doctrine of correct principles. If a young man will not serve a mission for no clear and justifiable reason, it is unlikely he is prepared to understand and receive his endowment. This is not a judgment of worthiness but of readiness, rather.

[Guest mysticmorini]

I suggest that the Bishop would be well equipped to make a determination even when no specific "rule" exists on the matter. We go back to the doctrine of correct principles. If a young man will not serve a mission for no clear and justifiable reason, it is unlikely he is prepared to understand and receive his endowment. This is not a judgment of worthiness but of readiness, rather.

like i said in this particular case its not a matter of "will not" but a matter of cannot due to his military obligations. I believe he looked into serving but the Army would not give him a leave of service for two years. I doubt someone who simply refused to go on a mission would have a desire to receive his endowments but i could be wrong.

[RipplecutBuddha]

No. What you've just presented is the world's most common misinterpretation of probability.

Ah, well at least I managed a common misinterpretation. It's way more embarassing when I invent an entirely new misinterpretation.

[AmyKate88]

Well, considering I am 21 (22 in a month) and am in good standing with the Church, but have not served a mission (and am not planning on it) and am also not engaged, and was denied a temple recommend because I was not "over 24" and also "not engaged", I would highly suspect that a young man in a similar situation would also be denied for the same reasons. If not, I would be highly irritated, to put it lightly.

[Guest mysticmorini]

Well, considering I am 21 (22 in a month) and am in good standing with the Church, but have not served a mission (and am not planning on it) and am also not engaged, and was denied a temple recommend because I was not "over 24" and also "not engaged", I would highly suspect that a young man in a similar situation would also be denied for the same reasons. If not, I would be highly irritated, to put it lightly.

all bets are off i talked to this young man after his interview (he asked me to be his escort, that is why i have been involved in the whole process) both the bishop and the stake president okayed it. try not to be upset amy, consider this man's circumstances compared to yours. he has graduated college, is an officer in the Army and will soon be deployed to Iraq or Afghanistan. I think if any of those three situations applied in your case you would have been recommended. in any case you definitely will be in a year or two. also i think stake presidents in the east tend to be more lenient than those out west. In any case don't be too upset, the lord still loves you.

[confuzzled]

Well, considering I am 21 (22 in a month) and am in good standing with the Church, but have not served a mission (and am not planning on it) and am also not engaged, and was denied a temple recommend because I was not "over 24" and also "not engaged", I would highly suspect that a young man in a similar situation would also be denied for the same reasons. If not, I would be highly irritated, to put it lightly.

Times must of changed because I was 21 not engaged and no plans on serving a mission and I went through. But.......................that was over +10 years ago. Also looking back I think in all honesty I should have waited and been better prepared.