MarginOfError

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MarginOfError last won the day on December 6 2020

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About MarginOfError

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    So Mormon...You Don't Even Know.

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  1. MarginOfError

    Liberal Ideas Creeping In

    Some of these are fair criticisms. Adjusting the federal numbers up to 3700 per month and reducing the taxes to 5% (about 11% to federal and 4% to state/local) changes the monthly unused income to $489 per month. That $30,000 downpayment becomes accessible in just over five years. But with the caveat that transportation still isn't included in that value. And the caveat that the home price is still the typical value in the area I live in, which a fairly low cost of living area. The urban area 30 minutes north of me shows 2BR/1Bath houses starting around the $125k point. By comparison, this (admittedly cherry picked) 2BR 1.5 Bath in the Salt Lake area going into foreclosure and marked as for sale is listed at $280k. Sidenote, regarding some other criticisms of using a 3BR house in my targets, I figured a young couple starting out and planning for their future might be interested in a 3BR house if they wanted to have four kids, which doesn't seem unreasonable for a mormon family. I apologize that this assumption wasn't expressly stated in my work. As another form of comparison, this Census report shows the 1970 median household income was $8,730 per year. This inflation calculator places that value at 59,506.2 in today's dollars. I'm struggling to find an individual income median for a direct comparison, but if we operate on the belief that single income families were more common in the upper income levels then than they are now, my gut check guess is that a single income family probably has the equivalent of $600 less monthly income now than it did in 1970. Which all goes back to the original point, that regardless of which numbers you use, a single income has less purchasing power today than it did 50 years ago. By extension, making ends meet and accomplishing financial goals is harder on a single income today than it was 50 years ago. It seems reasonable to think that families might be making different decisions with regard to who works and who doesn't that reflect some of that lost purchasing power. Things not relevant to the main point: - A 20% down payment may not be normal, but I'd argue that is another symptom of the problem. Best practice by financial experts, as far as I understand, still encourage the 20% down payment because it saves money due to PMI. More importantly, it demonstrates the ability to save money for the unexpected expenses that comes with the maintenance on a house. Statistically speaking, the lower percentage the downpayment, the higher the risk of failing to keep up with payments. (another really complicated discussion, I know) - Not saving for retirement while saving to purchase a house is, in my estimation, a catastrophic strategic error. If your employer offers a match, you should contribute at least enough to max out that benefit. Early savings are king in retirement, and starting five to six years earlier makes an enormous difference after 30 years of saving. So whether or not it is common, it's the practice that should be encouraged.
  2. MarginOfError

    Liberal Ideas Creeping In

    There's some hyperbole going on here, but I'll focus on your core point. The first thing I'll say is that I was actually a bit shocked in the 2017 Face-to-Face event with Elders Oaks and Ballard when Elder Oaks answered a question about a woman's priority for education vs. marriage. He spoke of his own mother, and how she needed to provide for her family after his father died. He made the point that she was blessed to be able to do so comfortably because she had completed her education. He then went on to state that while he did not support putting off getting married to complete an education, he did think there was a certain wisdom to waiting until her degree was completed before having children. Is it at all possible that the statements leaders make on this subject are colored by their own experiences? And might that be why so many of the statement stressing the importance of having mom in the home are so blasted old? Regardless, in more cases than you might think, the choice of whether a woman works or not is practical. Let's look at the state of affairs at present: Let's look at what it takes to buy a three bedroom home. In my area, which is fairly low cost of living, the BR houses are running at about $150,000. Let's make the goal to save enough for a 20% down payment. The following numbers breakdown what the financial situation is for a single income family with three mouths to feed. At the median income, it would take 15 years to build up that down payment. And that doesn't include costs of gasoline, car payments, or even fast offering. The hard reality is that, given current wages and market forces, if a couple wants to build financial stability and self reliance, there aren't a lot of options. And they really boil down to 1. Get a job that pays well above the median (not always within your control) 2. Move to a lower cost of living area (where gainful employment is often harder to come by--I live in such an area and unemployment here is high) 3. A combination of 2 and 3 4. Become a two income family (provided the second income can offset the cost of child care) Keep in mind that these values represent the median. By definition, half of wage earners are unable to meet even these metrics. So it would seem to me that unless we are going to increase single earner wages dramatically, the ideal of women not pursuing careers seems to be a ship that has sailed, crashed into an iceberg, and sunk. Perhaps we should give these families a break. Are there people out there that are putting off family for the sake of building wealth? Absolutely. I'm not going to deny that one bit. But that is often a completely separate issue from whether the woman is working or not. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal_income_in_the_United_States#:~:text=The Bureau of Labor Statistics,sex%2C ethnicity and educational characteristics [2] https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/KY/INC110218 [3] https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/average-rent-by-state [4] https://www.valuepenguin.com/average-household-budget [5] Estimated on the same proportion as monthly income between U.S. and my state. [6] https://www.nationwide.com/lc/resources/personal-finance/articles/average-cost-of-utilities [7] https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/09/07/wscs-10-least-expensive-states/15075077/#:~:text=Kentucky&text=Numbeo estimates the average cost,restaurant at only around %248. [8] http://www.oecd.org/tax/tax-policy/taxing-wages-united-states.pdf [9] Assuming 6% as it would be the minimum to max out most common employer matches [10] Assuming a home of $150,000, which is common for a 3BR home in my low cost of living area.
  3. MarginOfError

    Liberal Ideas Creeping In

    You're more or less demonstrating my point. It's pretty hard to make an argument against the interpretation of equal partners not being the same as equal responsibilities. It's also hard to make an argument against equal partners and equal responsibilities. It really depends on how you feel about the transitive property, on which the Family Proclamation is pretty silent. And I find your comment about "problem causer vs problem solver" to be rather amusing. I mean, the entirety of our standard works create more problems then they answer. It's one of the strongest similarities the Family Proclamation has to scripture. And just as there are people that will fixate one one phrase to justify a woman working out of the home, there are others that will hyper focus on the mother's primary responsibility to the detriment of their family. I am personally familiar with a family where the husband, unable to hold a job and at times physically unable to work refused to let his wife get a job because "if we follow the counsel of the prophets, we will be blessed." Without going into the details, you'll just have to take my word for it that it was tantamount to spiritual abuse. The abuses of these things go in all sorts of directions.
  4. MarginOfError

    The election

    Meh, it happens. In fairness, there are some in the conservative circles that are claiming it isn't _really_ done, because the House _could_ choose not to certify that electoral college. The House won't vote on that until 6 Jan, I believe. Rejecting the electoral vote, if I understand correctly, would require a sponsor in the House and in the Senate, as well as majority votes in both chambers. So doesn't seem likely, but the most DedicatedToTheCause (TM) are saying that's the only vote that matters. Of course, most of them were saying the Electoral College vote was the only one that mattered when they thought they would see swing states with Republican legislatures send their own electors. Seems like the "what really matters" goal posts keep moving....
  5. MarginOfError

    Liberal Ideas Creeping In

    Like or hate it, the above ^^^ statement still exists. Like it or hate it, the statement "In these sacred responsibilities, fathers and mothers are obligated to help one another as equal partners." still exists. Like it or hate it, the Family Proclamation is quite ambiguous and doesn't answer nearly as many questions as it creates, and is open to a wide array of interpretations. I tend to agree with @JaneDoe, and let families and individuals strive to make decisions that best suit their own and their families' needs.
  6. MarginOfError

    The election

    Point of order, the Electoral College cast their votes yesterday. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mcconnell-senate-republicans-biden-president-elect-electoral-college Doesn't seem inappropriate to acknowledge Mr. Biden as the President-elect. Even Senator McConnell has done so at this point.
  7. MarginOfError

    I think I just lost my kid in the Church

    You'd agree with me more often if you wanted to be right about things. This happens to be an area in which I have a lot of experience, being over 15 years into my own faith crisis.
  8. MarginOfError

    I think I just lost my kid in the Church

    First and foremost, don't fall into the mistake of thinking this is something that can be fixed. There is nothing broken with your son. I consider what has happened with your son to be a breach of trust. I believe we all experience these breaches at some point, and it can be extremely unsettling (whether it is intended or not). The primary advice I would give your son is to lay out every concern he has about the church and his leaders to you. Give him room to speak and be heard without judgment. When he is done, say nothing more than, 'can I have some time to think about this?' Let your discussions about flawed leaders (and flawed disciples) and the possibilities of mixing up revelation with what-we-really-want for another day. Ultimately, I would guess that there are other concerns that have quietly existed for some time. The first step to helping is listening, understanding, and showing that you still love.
  9. MarginOfError

    Lds.net Town

    Dibs on the role of Town Drunk (er, hyper from too much root beer)
  10. MarginOfError

    Two Truths and a lie game

    I'm not sure I understand the difference. Wow. We actually _do_ have something in common
  11. MarginOfError

    Two Truths and a lie game

    still waiting on the Primary calling, I'm afraid. I thought this would be the year. Now it's looking like it will be about another 10 before it happens.
  12. MarginOfError

    Two Truths and a lie game

    Good guess. #1 is outrageously false.
  13. MarginOfError

    Two Truths and a lie game

    Seems everyone current has been guessed out. 1. I have straight A's in graduate level statistics courses from Harvard. 2. I have never served in Primary, despite asking to be called there multiple times. 3. I once dated a stripper
  14. MarginOfError

    This or that?

    I'll bite. I normally prefer chocolate. Unless it's my home made vanilla ice cream. My home made vanilla ice cream uses my home made vanilla. I've had vanilla beans sitting in a half gallon of bourbon for about 8 years. Bourbon vanilla has a rather pleasant flavor to it.
  15. MarginOfError

    Tithing Settlement

    I've refused to participate in tithing settlement for probably a decade now. I don't object to tithing settlement or it's purposes. I object to the time frame in which it must all be done. Requiring a bishop to meet with each family in the last three months, while also requiring at least a clerk or other bishopric member to be present (if done by the books) seemed anathema to reducing the administrative load on the bishop. I'll return to tithing settlement when the bishops are permitted to take these declarations throughout the year. I still review my tithing statements to make sure I'm paying a full tithe. I've been pretty open with my bishops that I don't consider the ten minutes he could spare for me worth his time. They've never complained.