Inflation or Deflation...I think the answer is behind door #3


lds2

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The answer is that we are seeing BOTH.

Recent news from the government says we are seeing inflation in many of the "essentials" and deflation in many of the "non-essential" indexes. But that isn't really surprising as "we" and many other countries of the world continue to spend "pretend" money and live on debt.

A bigger concern to me about what could effect prices and inflation is all the "wierding" going on all over...including weird seasons, weird earthquakes, weird solar flares, really weird abnormally non-stop hot and cold weather patterns, weird gas price increases, the middle-east continuing weirdness, etc.

I believe we are in for "interesting times" in the traditional Chinese saying sense...and while the Church has said that they will do what they can...we should NOT plan on them being able to help us in a widespread downturn or calamity.

Here is the recent news from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics...

"Indexes for shelter...medical care, and household operations all advanced, while indexes for apparel, recreation...all declined." (From the Consumer Price Index Summary)

We all know what is happening at the grocery store with size and quality of grocery items going down while the prices go up. At the gas stations each week we get less gas for the same cost as the week before...

In inflationary times it is best to have assets in your possession rather than money in the bank. So here is my "financial advice"...get assets in your possession of say around 300 pounds of grains and beans per person for your family for longer-term storage, and all the canned goods you can store/afford to last at least 3 months.

Heavenly Father has promised blessings to those that keep His commandments and "having every needful thing" IS a commandment and having food at home and a financial reserve were two of the things the First Presidency talked about when they told us Heavenly Father has lovingly commanded us to prepare.

I hope that all of you who can, will prepare for some "interesting" times ahead.

Best wishes my friends through our personal and collective "interesting times"

.

Edited by lds2
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Many forget the 70's and what back then was called stagflation. That was the era of gas rationing, 55 mph speed limits and mortgage loans of 18%. Once again we are being told non-sense like – “we can solve all our gas price problems by inflating our tires and conserving.”

It was back then that I decided to ride a bicycle more – I have commuted most of my life to work by bicycle – 25 miles one way (50 miles a day). Does anyone have any idea what it would do to the economy if just 10% of commuters started riding a bicycle? It is not just a 10% reduction in what is spent on gas but an increase in cash flow into the local economy that because of circulating flows could increase the economic flow as much as 25%. The health benefits are even more staggering.

Part of the problem should not be blamed on the government, or even the business climate. Much of the economic responsibility lies directly with a lazy populace with an entitlement mentality. We have come to believe we are entitled to pay even when we do not work (sick leave and vacation). Why should anyone be paid for not working? I talked to a local business owner that tells me that he believes that 90% of sick leave is used when employees are not sick but just do not feel like working that day.

Maybe the bulk of the problem is stupidity and bad karma from a very lazy and entitled populace. Is anyone is listening to the great minds on fixing the economy? Ask yourself if anybody from either party is really going to change anything – Not by asking lazy entitled minded people to do nothing more than vote for them. My mission president use to say – there is not a program in the universe that will work unless you do. When was the last time you heard that from a union, politician and even from many religions. And all this time I thought the Bible said man should work every day of his life – but many in religion think that work is a curse and punishment for partaking of the fruit and not a blessing of hope to help overcome the condition brought by the fall.

The Traveler

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There indeed is a great deal of laziness in America. Many people believe they are entitled to money they do not earn. I also think on the other side there are some who "oppress the hireling in his wages." (Malachi 3:5).

From what I see I think there is too much of a desire for what is not good for everyone and for what people can merely get away with. Is the answer more laws or regulation? Not in my opinion. Until the fear of God and a desire for righteousness returns this nation we will experience the same trials.

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Much of the economic responsibility lies directly with a lazy populace with an entitlement mentality. We have come to believe we are entitled to pay even when we do not work (sick leave and vacation). Why should anyone be paid for not working? I talked to a local business owner that tells me that he believes that 90% of sick leave is used when employees are not sick but just do not feel like working that day.

Sick pay is a bad idea in my mind. The company I work for simply gives "paid time off" which covers vacation and sick pay. It is a much better system. And I do agree that people believe they are entitled to way too much and are not grateful for what they have.

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There indeed is a great deal of laziness in America. Many people believe they are entitled to money they do not earn. I also think on the other side there are some who "oppress the hireling in his wages." (Malachi 3:5).

From what I see I think there is too much of a desire for what is not good for everyone and for what people can merely get away with. Is the answer more laws or regulation? Not in my opinion. You cannot legislate a desire for righteousness. Until the fear of God and a desire for righteousness returns to this nation we will experience the same trials.

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There indeed is a great deal of laziness in America. Many people believe they are entitled to money they do not earn. I also think on the other side there are some who "oppress the hireling in his wages." (Malachi 3:5).

From what I see I think there is too much of a desire for what is not good for everyone and for what people can merely get away with. Is the answer more laws or regulation? Not in my opinion. You cannot legislate a desire for righteousness. Until the fear of God and a desire for righteousness returns to this nation we will experience the same trials.

Thank you for your responses Still_Small_Voice:

For much of my life I have worked for a company. Some years ago I decided to become a "Consulting Engineer". My eyes were opened. I no longer get paid sick leave or vacation - not even one cent. My clients evaluate my contribution on a monthly basis - if I am not making them money - I do not work. Beyond what I am paid - I have no other benefits.

Just so you know - I work half the hours I use to and I am paid twice as much - if you do the math, I get paid 4 times per hour what I use to get paid - and I was one of the highest paid engineers in the company I worked for. When I run into other engineers I use to work with they all say they wish they had the "deal" I have. One once told me he would do what I am doing but he needs the insurance.

It is very interesting what excuses we make for being lazy and entitled. The truth is that being lazy and entitled costs every individual far more that they realize - but it also costs a society that rewards being lazy and entitled even more.

And just so you know - I believe the out of control health care costs is a direct result of a lazy entitled mentality prevalent in society.

The Traveler

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I've been mentoring a girl who is not LDS but is working at DI. I just heard that she is now pregnant with her third fatherless child. Between her sister and her (who live with their mother in a trailer) they will soon have 5 children around 3 and under. I worry for the children, what will happen to them when they are no longer an economic asset to families that take advantage of the system.

Another girl I know has been in four free government programs for education and eventually failed to show up for her classes and dropped out. She has drained all the available programs for her (although her parents are upper-middle class, her parents don't have a college education so she qualifies for many) and is now getting educational benefits through her dad's VA program. It is frustrating to see her abuse the system while we struggle to assist our four children in college.

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I've been mentoring a girl who is not LDS but is working at DI. I just heard that she is now pregnant with her third fatherless child. Between her sister and her (who live with their mother in a trailer) they will soon have 5 children around 3 and under. I worry for the children, what will happen to them when they are no longer an economic asset to families that take advantage of the system.

Another girl I know has been in four free government programs for education and eventually failed to show up for her classes and dropped out. She has drained all the available programs for her (although her parents are upper-middle class, her parents don't have a college education so she qualifies for many) and is now getting educational benefits through her dad's VA program. It is frustrating to see her abuse the system while we struggle to assist our four children in college.

I believe that the people you are talking about are often held to the example but the worst examples are well educated middle and upper class families that knowing better and capable of much better think entitlements.

The Traveler

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About sick pay/vacation pay/pay without corresponding work:

It is the same as buying a TV on lay-away. There is a set price for the TV - say, $400. Every month you give the store $100 receiving nothing in return until you get to $400 and then you get the TV.

This is like a company paying you sick/vacation/benefits/etc. There is already a set price for your wage - say, $40,000/yr. They take some money out of that to buy your benefits, take some money out of that to pay your vacation, take some money out of that to cover your sick days. So, in the end, they give you an offer of $25,000/yr to work for them and then you're very happy because you got all these benefits.

I'm a contract worker. I get paid for every hour I work and not for a single hour I don't work. So, I get the full $40,000. If I need sick pay, I save up the money to prepare for it. If I get sick, I use the money saved to replace my lost wages. If I don't get sick, the money is mine to spend on whatever I want - like new shoes. So, what happens is, I end up trying to stay healthy, exercise, manage my weight, manage my blood pressure, live a healthy lifestyle... because in exchange I get SHOES!

Posted Image

Edited by anatess
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About sick pay/vacation pay/pay without corresponding work:

It is the same as buying a TV on lay-away. There is a set price for the TV - say, $400. Every month you give the store $100 receiving nothing in return until you get to $400 and then you get the TV.

This is like a company paying you sick/vacation/benefits/etc. There is already a set price for your wage - say, $40,000/yr. They take some money out of that to buy your benefits, take some money out of that to pay your vacation, take some money out of that to cover your sick days. So, in the end, they give you an offer of $25,000/yr to work for them and then you're very happy because you got all these benefits.

I'm a contract worker. I get paid for every hour I work and not for a single hour I don't work. So, I get the full $40,000. If I need sick pay, I save up the money to prepare for it. If I get sick, I use the money saved to replace my lost wages. If I don't get sick, the money is mine to spend on whatever I want - like new shoes. So, what happens is, I end up trying to stay healthy, exercise, manage my weight, manage my blood pressure, live a healthy lifestyle... because in exchange I get SHOES!

Posted Image

Nice feet - ugly husband :D

The bottom line is you get more benefits. Smart.

The Traveler

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Nice feet - ugly husband :D

The bottom line is you get more benefits. Smart.

The Traveler

I forgot to mention... the company offered me a group rate "cadillac" health insurance if I want it... for something like $500/mo out of my paycheck. Even covers birthing suite maternity package... (or whatever they called it). I said thanks, but no thanks. I physically can't have children anymore after I almost died on the operating table getting my last kid out, so yeah, you can keep your birthing suite...

So, instead, I take out the $500 from my paycheck, give it to my husband who puts it on the Health Savings Account that he has through his work insurance. Now, that's the really cool thing about Health Savings Account - we can use it for anything health related, for as long as we have money in it. So that, if my family stay pretty healthy, we may still have money on that HSA when I get old and decrepit and need one of them hovercrafts or life alert buttons or dentures or... anything. And, what's more... if I die tomorrow, the HSA can be willed to my choice of beneficiary.

Well, that is if... the banking system don't blow up or something...

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The answer is that we are seeing BOTH.

I don't think this is possible. If I understand the terms correctly, by definition both cannot be simultaneously true. Inflation is the increase of overall cost, or in other words, the decrease in the value of money. Deflation is the opposite: The decrease of overall cost, or in other words, the increase in the value of money.

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I don't think this is possible. If I understand the terms correctly, by definition both cannot be simultaneously true. Inflation is the increase of overall cost, or in other words, the decrease in the value of money. Deflation is the opposite: The decrease of overall cost, or in other words, the increase in the value of money.

Nah. He's talking specific market segments. Inflation is determined using CPI and PPI but they exclude food and gas out of the index... so it gets confusing - you get inflation on certain metrics, deflation on certain metrics...

One clear thing is - inflation in goods, deflation in wages = a very bad thing.

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