Largest Natural Disaster in the United States EVER - Happening Now

[lds2]

The US Drought Monitor reported a nearly threefold increase in areas of extreme drought over the past week in the nine Midwestern states where three quarters of the country's corn and soybean crops are produced.

AFP: US 'extreme drought' zones triple in size

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"That expansion of D3 or extreme conditions intensified quite rapidly and we went from 11.9 percent to 28.9 percent in just one week," Brian Fuchs, a climatologist and Drought Monitor author, told AFP. "For myself, studying drought, that's rapid. We've seen a lot of things developing with this drought that were unprecedented, especially the speed." (AFP)

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"...24 percent of the corn crop in good-to-excellent condition as of Sunday, and 29 percent of the soybean crop in good-to-excellent shape, both down 2 percentage points from the previous week. Fox Business | Business News & Stock Quotes - Saving & Investing

Recap...

Intially this years crop had 77 percent that looked at least good,

Later it was 63 percent that still looked good,

the next week it was 53 percent, etc.

Then it was 40 percent

Then 31%

26% Last Week

24% This week

Numbers are expected to go down when they go into the fields in August.

Edited August 3, 2012 by lds2

[lds2]

...Grain output in Western Australia, the country’s biggest wheat grower, may drop 40 percent because of dry weather and frost... As many as 400 of India’s 627 districts received lower-than-average rainfall this year... China may import a record 61 million metric tons of soybeans in the 2012-13 season... (Bloomberg Businessweek, Aug 2, 2012)

[lds2]

Nearly 220 counties in a dozen drought-stricken states were added Wednesday to the U.S...

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's addition of the 218 counties means that more than half of all U.S. counties -- 1,584 in 32 states -- have been designated primary disaster areas this growing season, the vast majority of them mired in a drought that's considered the worst in decades.

Half of US counties now considered disaster areas

Recap the first thread had about 1,000 counties, now 1,584 more than half are disaster areas, many more are unusually dry to moderate drought.

Edited August 3, 2012 by lds2

[Guest]

I really liked your post about where to get the best prices on food storage. But I think threads like these aren't getting through to people the way you intend. What are you gaining by talking to yourself for pages and pages in multiple threads?

[lds2]

Eowyn, I appreciate the way you wrote your post with the complement before the zinger. That was very kind where others might have just left off the first part.

It wouldn't look like I was talking to myself if I posted each article as a separate thread in current events, but out of consideration for my friends such as yourself I am mostly keeping this current event contained to this single thread with single sentences or small blurbs even though I think it is important to know about the drought as there's no longer any doubt that prices ARE going to go up and knowing in advance could be a blessing to some here, hopefully many.

Before I joined this site I kept having the thought come to me that I should join and that there was someone that would benefit from it. Eventually I thought okay already and joined. I truly believe it was inspiration that brought me here, but I am sure there are others here that would disagree with that possibility. Perhaps there is someone lurking or visiting that will benefit or has benefited from something I have posted. I hope so, but probably won't know whether all this effort is wasted until we get to the other side where, if I have wasted my time as well as yours, I will personally apologize to all I have annoyed or offended in person as I have come to care about the people here, even those that don't appreciate what I post very much. Or perhaps my presence is to promote patience... :)

I think this is a valuable site and appreciate the many good gospel discussions I see taking place. I admire the intellect and caring that I see displayed on so many threads. This is a great group and I do appreciate being here.

Char

Edited August 3, 2012 by lds2

[Guest]

Thanks for the answer. I would get frustrated and discouraged if no one responded, so I wondered.

[lds2]

Wheat production from Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan will drop 30 percent from last year due to drought in those countries, according to a Reuters poll.

Russia drought cuts wheat production - Wheat RC News - Ag Professional

United States - Federal scientists say this July was the hottest on record, smoking out even the sweltering temperatures set in the Dust Bowl in the 1930s. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported Wednesday that the stretch from August 2011 through July this year was the warmest 12-month period the U.S. has experienced.

U.S. Corn Production Outlook Cut As Drought Takes Toll

Edited August 11, 2012 by lds2

[WyomingEMT]

My wife has canned peaches, sulsa, and other things. It's a art that many of our young won't do our don't no how to do. It makes you what to inventory your food storage.

[pam]

I've never thought about putting "sulsa" in my food storage.

[lds2]

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported Wednesday that the average temperature last month was 77.6 degrees, eclipsing the old record from July 1936 by 0.2 degrees. Records go back to 1895. "It's a pretty significant increase over the last record[/b...this shows that the current year "is out and beyond those Dust Bowl years. We're rivaling and beating them consistently from month to month."

Read More Report: Drought worsens in key farm states

[lds2]

Corn prices were at an all-time high on Friday...beating out a previous high from April 2008. But here is the thing...that is like comparing apples and oranges.

An all time high price DURING HARVEST is alarming as prices traditonally hit their peaks in late winter/spring. To have ALL-TIME record breaking prices before and during Harvest should raise big red flags for everyone concerning prices this winter, and things won't get better unless there is a great harvest next year as the global stock of corn is expected to get down to a 3 week supply in 2013...and that is with present estimates which are expected to still be further depleted by the time the harvest is actually counted. In fact if next years harvest also suffers it could be a calamity for multitudes, perhaps even us.

I am like you, my normalcy bias wants things to stay comfortable and the same. But that might simply not be an option in the future...

***

Edited August 14, 2012 by lds2

[lds2]

They keep comparing this drought to 1988 when 69 percent of the US Midwest was suffering from drought, but we have been seeing ~80 percent of the United States in drought this summer.

Here is the current drought monitor from last week...US Drought Monitor

"Corn prices have surged 63% since mid-June, reaching an all-time high of $8.49 a bushel this past Friday, on the Chicago Board of Trade. Crop conditions on August 5 were the worst since 1988, and 69% of the US Midwest was suffering with moderate to exceptional drought conditions, according to government reports...Dry weather in Russia and below-average monsoon rains in India are threatening to make the global grain situation a whole lot worse."

Inflation All Comes Down to the Crops - MoneyShow.com

"With 78 percent of the contiguous U.S. in drought conditions — including 24 percent in “exceptional” drought""

Corn Prices Jump To Record Highs As Drought Hits 78 Percent Of U.S. | Environment

Edited August 14, 2012 by lds2

[lds2]

Ship traffic on the Mississippi River was briefly shut down yesterday and salt from the Gulf of Mexico is threatening the drinking water upriver...The river is a mess and the inability to move goods through major ports will only drive up the cost of buying and selling them.

The Drought Is Killing The Mississippi River - Yahoo! News

Sixty percent of our grain, 22% of the oil and natural gas, and 1/5th of our coal travels down the Mississippi River and if shipping were to stop it would cost more than 300 million dollars for every day. Barges are already running light to prevent getting stuck causing shipping prices to go up.

[lds2]

The northwestern Indian state of Rajasthan, and the southern state of Karnataka have declared a drought, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Read more: Droughts: Bad For U.S., Catastrophic For India - Business Insider

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The prediction of more severe weather is coming true as the Philippines and China have been suffering from large storms and heavy flooding that have resulted in huge losses of crops while in India, one of the world's largest food producers and consumers with a population of 1.2 billion, people continue to struggle with a prolonged drought.

Floods, drought threaten Asia's food security - Outlook - VietNam News

[lds2]

Darn. It looks like the US annual production of corn will only be 12.97 BILLION BUSHELS instead of 14.79 billion. And our stockpile of surplus corn fell to a meager 1.2 billion bushels.

This might push food prices higher than they were last time they were this high.

"The U.S. Agriculture Department cut its projected U.S. corn production to 10.8 billion bushels, down 17 percent from its forecast last month of nearly 13 billion bushels"

It will be interesting to see what the actual numbers will be as many experts say that this estimate is still overly optimistic.

[lds2]

Record breaking prices again this week...the news media will always say how prices were similar in the winter of ____...but this is comparing apples with oranges as record prices are almost unheard of during harvest but traditionally peak during the winter/early spring months. As corn prices have gone up almost 70 percent in the last couple of months and corn products are found in about 3/4ths of our food products this is a pretty big indicator that foods are going to be crazy expensive this winter.

"The Pro Farmer tour sparked the rally" Tuesday, said Frank Cholly of RJO Futures. They have a pretty good peg at final yields," he said. The Pro Farmer estimates were significantly lower than the US Department of Agriculture's sharply slashed forecasts from last week."

US corn, soy prices hit records as drought lingers The Financial Physician

[lds2]

Recap...

Intially this years crop had 77 percent that looked at least good,

Later it was 63 percent that still looked good,

the next week it was 53 percent, etc.

Then it was 40 percent

Then 31%

26%

24%

This week 22%

See article above saying that these numbers are overly optimistic...

[lds2]

I went to do a new price comparison recently for food storage items and I couldn't find the 50 lbs of popcorn in the usual stores...I've been buying mine there for 7 years. Then today I just read an article saying they are already finding it difficult to find sources of supply and the price has already gone up substantially.

"Retail prices have jumped this summer: from about $20 for a 50 pound bag to $30 or higher, said Tim Caldwell, owner of Pop It Rite, an Illinois-based popcorn industry expert..."

Popcorn drought hits US movie theaters (+video) - CSMonitor.com

Wheat is getting close to $18.00 at Honeyville (in the bag) BUT it was still $16.35 at Costco in a 6 gallon bucket on Saturday. If you don't have a cold storage room in your basement you would have to do the dry ice method for longer-term storage, but a lid is less than $2 at Industrial Container Supply and the dry ice is cheap at the store. Go to the Packaging Recommendations at Providentliving.org for easy to DIY instructions... Check to make sure that your Costco has Lehi Roller Mill wheat before you go, because many outside of the Intermountain West especially don't carry it..

Edited September 11, 2012 by lds2

[lds2]

Seven of the top 18 corn-producing U.S. states have less than 15 percent of the crop land listed as in either good or excellent shape, farmers reported...Worldwide inventories at the end of the next marketing year will be 123.95 million tons...From a national perspective, the crop condition was unchanged week to week with 3 percent listed as excellent, 19 percent as good and 26 percent in each of the categories of good, poor and very poor.

Few acres of corn in good or great shape - UPI.com

52 percent in poor to very poor condition...but pretty much all they are talking about on the news is the quantity which based on the fact that farmers planted more than ever this year isn't so bad as it could have been, but almost nothing is said about the quality of that corn...

In 1988 which is the most recent bad drought the amount of corn in poor to very poor condition was ~46 percent, we have exceeded that number this year but you aren't hearing anything in the news about that...puzzling...

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/files/ht_charts/crncondit_cbt.pdf

[lds2]

"The “mass liquidation” of animals – which Rabobank said will pick up pace in the beginning of 2013 – will contribute to food prices hitting new highs. The cost of pork is expected to rise at the fastest pace - by 31% by the end of June next year...

This would see food prices reach their highest level on record, up by 175% compared to the year 2000."

Early 2013: Prepare For A Massive Food Price Surge; Up 175% from the Year 2000

[WyomingEMT]

thanks for all your updates lds2. I check everyday to review your research.

[lds2]

Worse is to come, new research warns. World food prices look set to hit an all-time high in the first quarter of next year – and then keep rising...The coming year will see the world economy re-enter a period of agflation as grain and oilseed stocks decline to critically low levels...

World on track for record food prices 'within a year' due to US drought - Telegraph

Edited September 24, 2012 by lds2