How is the Economy?

[Guest Mores]

I was looking at the following information on unemployment rates:

https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm

It appears that the US is doing just fine.  We have a few states that are not well. Alaska.  D.C. (I know, not a state), New Mexico and a few others are still above 4%.  Anything below 4% is amazing.

I was surprised to find California was not "too" high @ 4.3%.  That's actually pretty good (4.6% +/- or better is considered fully employed per CBO).  Why are so many leaving the state for work? Why are there so many homeless in CA?  Then it hit me.

https://www.usich.gov/tools-for-action/map/#fn[]=1400&fn[]=2900&fn[]=6000&fn[]=9900&fn[]=13500&all_types=true&year=2018

California & New York have beyond the beyond homeless rates of any state.  When you're homeless, you're not counted in the unemployed rate.  And if people move out of a state, they are no longer unemployed in the state.  So, apparently CA was able to improve its unemployment rate by shipping people out and by demoting them out of unemployment down to homeless.  WOW!

I was somewhat surprised to find the homeless rate as high as it is in Texas.  But we have an interesting dynamic here.  So many people are REALLY doing well in Texas, that we are able to support a sizeable homeless population simply by giving at the local street corner.  And there are panhandlers everywhere.  Believe it or not, most of them are NOT druggies or mentally unstable.  They've just chosen a different lifestyle.  That's their chosen profession "panhandler".

Back to the real reason I bring this up. CA homeless rate is 1 in 4.  Think about that.  Many of you have a household or family that has four or more people in it.  Can you imagine that one or two of them is homeless?  Perish the thought.  What the heck is going on over there!?!?

[anatess2]

40 minutes ago, Mores said:

What the heck is going on over there!?!?

Homeless rate goes up as Homeless benefits go up unless you put a non-penetrable border wall around California.  This is pretty much the main reason why UBI will not work.

[Guest Mores]

2 hours ago, anatess2 said:

Homeless rate goes up as Homeless benefits go up unless you put a non-penetrable border wall around California.  This is pretty much the main reason why UBI will not work.

I didn't realize CA had UBI.  Well, duh-uh.

[Guest Scott]

8 hours ago, Mores said:

What the heck is going on over there!?!?

Check out the home prices there and you will understand.  Housing is ridiculously expensive in most (all?) of California.

In many ways (climate, scenery, etc.), California is a desirable place to live, but this has sent home prices skyrocketing.  The same is true about parts of Colorado.  

It has more to do with supply and demand than politics or other factors.

As an example in California, here are all of the Zillow housing listings for San Francisco for less than one million dollars:

https://www.zillow.com/san-francisco-ca/?utm_content=1478748379|55717614165|aud-737049631180:kwd-325412559794|282922620856|&semQue=null&k_clickid=_kenshoo_clickid_&gclid=CjwKCAjw0N3nBRBvEiwAHMwvNveQY3Eu0m3DL7WZkvMoE-MQ_K6b3F2qO72197GYX9D5UQ5-cutcmhoCU2EQAvD_BwE&searchQueryState={"mapBounds":{"west":-122.536739,"east":-122.329919,"south":37.707608,"north":37.842913},"regionSelection":[{"regionId":20330,"regionType":6}],"pagination":{},"filterState":{"price":{"min":0,"max":1000000},"monthlyPayment":{"min":0,"max":3782},"isMakeMeMove":{"value":false},"isAllHomes":{"value":true}}}

Look just how little half a million buys.  

Rentals aren't much better either.  Check out the rental prices for San Francisco:

https://www.forrent.com/find/CA/metro-San+Francisco+Bay/San+Francisco?gclsrc=aw.ds&gclid=CjwKCAjw0N3nBRBvEiwAHMwvNqyfqMywTit9k1zFg3j1Ry66_vLnDZFEP5Yo_Q7hlYApvzEMx02AyhoC6fwQAvD_BwE

I'm surprised even more people aren't homeless given the high price of housing.

Edited June 6, 2019 by Scott

[anatess2]

7 hours ago, Scott said:

I'm surprised even more people aren't homeless given the high price of housing.

House prices, like other things, are a byproduct of Supply-Demand-Govt Regulations.  The more the demand in relation to the supply, the higher the price.  In places like Silicon Valley, the opportunities for high income is such that the demand for high priced housing is high.  This is exacerbated by Govt Regulations that are designed to price out low-income people out of a certain geographic area (gentrification).  This works fine in major suburbs in the USA because there is freedom of movement within the 50 States.  You get priced out of a geographic area, you move to the "other side of the tracks".  Homelessness occurs when there is a specific reason for the inability of people to flow to affordable areas - for example, the case of Chris Gardner becoming homeless and forced to sleep in subway restrooms is because his hope for the brighter future is in that specific city.  These things are what homeless shelters and HUD housing are designed for.  They are designed to be temporary assistance while you make changes in your life.

The problem in San Francisco is a whole lot more complicated than just gentrification.  When you have an area of town where feces and used syringes litter the streets, your problem is waaaay beyond house prices.

Edited June 6, 2019 by anatess2

[Just_A_Guy]

I don’t think CA has UBI, FWIW.  (How many acronyms can fit in one sentence?) 

[Guest Scott]

1 hour ago, anatess2 said:

You get priced out of a geographic area, you move to the "other side of the tracks". 

There is nowhere to move around places like the Silicon Valley that is affordable.  

[anatess2]

56 minutes ago, Just_A_Guy said:

I don’t think CA has UBI, FWIW.  (How many acronyms can fit in one sentence?) 

Stockton, CA does.

[anatess2]

4 minutes ago, Scott said:

There is nowhere to move around places like the Silicon Valley that is affordable.  

Yes.  Silicon Valley is a geographic area offering Tech Jobs at half a million a year.  If you don't make that much, you're priced out of Silicon Valley.  Which means - you migrate out of Silicon Valley.

[Just_A_Guy]

1 minute ago, anatess2 said:

Stockton, CA does.

I believe that’s a pilot program covering fewer than 200 people. 

[anatess2]

Just now, Just_A_Guy said:

I believe that’s a pilot program covering fewer than 200 people. 

Yes.  But that's still a UBI program.

[Just_A_Guy]

1 minute ago, anatess2 said:

Yes.  But that's still a UBI program.

Sort of . . . Except for the “universal” part.    

And attributing (even if merely by implication) California’s homelessness problem, to the fact that 130 Stocktonians are getting $500/month, would be a bit problematic.

[anatess2]

4 minutes ago, Just_A_Guy said:

Sort of . . . Except for the “universal” part.    

And attributing (even if merely by implication) California’s homelessness problem, to the fact that 130 Stocktonians are getting $500/month, would be a bit problematic.

That wasn't the assertion.  At all.  I simply stated that the reason that "homeless benefits" attract more homeless people is the same reason UBI wouldn't work unless you put an impenetrable barrier around the area.

Edited June 6, 2019 by anatess2

[Just_A_Guy]

3 minutes ago, anatess2 said:

That wasn't the assertion.  At all.  I simply stated that the reason that "homeless benefits" attract more homeless people is the same reason UBI wouldn't work unless you put an impenetrable barrier around the area.

Mea culpa, mea maxima culpa.

[anatess2]

1 minute ago, Just_A_Guy said:

Mea culpa, mea maxima culpa.

That would be one Our Father, 10 Hail Marys, and the Act of Contrition for you, my son.  

[omegaseamaster75]

17 minutes ago, anatess2 said:

Yes.  Silicon Valley is a geographic area offering Tech Jobs at half a million a year.  If you don't make that much, you're priced out of Silicon Valley.  Which means - you migrate out of Silicon Valley.

The 500k/yr jobs are few and far between, most entry level silicon valley guys make between 120-150k with some options. None of those guys are living in the area unless they are single and can afford the expensive rent, or are living out of a van or something.  Sure many people do live in Stockton, or Modesto or other outskirts but they spend 4-6 hours/day commuting to have "cheaper" housing.  I put cheaper in quotation marks because anything livable in those areas will run you 5-600k.

 

[omegaseamaster75]

1 hour ago, anatess2 said:

 You get priced out of a geographic area, you move to the "other side of the tracks". 

There is no other side of the tracks in the SF Bay Area. People who can't afford to live here need to leave the state or move to a rural part of the state where housing is cheap.

The homeless problem in SF is not in my opinion related to the housing crisis or inability to earn a fair wage. You have a city that will not enforce property crimes, and has decriminalized drug usage. You have a mild climate and a population who is tolerant of this behavior.

If I wanted to be a homeless bum I'd come to SF. 

[Guest Scott]

38 minutes ago, anatess2 said:

Yes.  Silicon Valley is a geographic area offering Tech Jobs at half a million a year.  If you don't make that much, you're priced out of Silicon Valley.  Which means - you migrate out of Silicon Valley.

True and Silicon Valley isn't the only place.  I live in Grand Junction (Colorado), which is "cheap" by Colorado standards.   Some people working in Aspen commute all the way from Grand Junction every day.   That's 128 miles each way.  

It's still cheaper than buying a house there:

https://www.zillow.com/aspen-co/?utm_content=1478748379|60109863507|aud-737049631180:kwd-305695184621|282874737273|&semQue=null&k_clickid=b3c6bf12-cb51-4002-8c5d-ad450b49a766&gclid=CjwKCAjw8-LnBRAyEiwA6eUMGtk3SNaXc9nwUtXdDyoYRo7X6kMnKsU7QnZcqLBPnpTBRMZqInoTKxoCVqAQAvD_BwE

Luckily some companies provide housing for people working there.

When I applied for a job there, the company told me that they already knew that their employees can't afford to live there (and this was for an engineering job that would be considered to be high paying in most of the nation).  Instead they offered to give me a company vehicle and gas card and said that I could live wherever I wanted (that I could afford at least) and they would provide the vehicle and gas to get there (I didn't take the job since it would be too much drive time for me).  

The local joke is that "Aspen has the lowest percentage of millionares of any resort town in America.   Millionares can't afford to live there."  I think that they are only half joking.  

Edited June 6, 2019 by Scott

[anatess2]

13 minutes ago, omegaseamaster75 said:

The 500k/yr jobs are few and far between, most entry level silicon valley guys make between 120-150k with some options. None of those guys are living in the area unless they are single and can afford the expensive rent, or are living out of a van or something.  Sure many people do live in Stockton, or Modesto or other outskirts but they spend 4-6 hours/day commuting to have "cheaper" housing.  I put cheaper in quotation marks because anything livable in those areas will run you 5-600k.

 

 

3 minutes ago, Scott said:

True and Silicon Valley isn't the only place.  I live in Grand Junction (Colorado), which is "cheap" by Colorado standards.   Some people working in Aspen commute all the way from Grand Junction every day.   That's 128 miles each way.  

It's still cheaper than buying a house there:

https://www.zillow.com/aspen-co/?utm_content=1478748379|60109863507|aud-737049631180:kwd-305695184621|282874737273|&semQue=null&k_clickid=b3c6bf12-cb51-4002-8c5d-ad450b49a766&gclid=CjwKCAjw8-LnBRAyEiwA6eUMGtk3SNaXc9nwUtXdDyoYRo7X6kMnKsU7QnZcqLBPnpTBRMZqInoTKxoCVqAQAvD_BwE

Luckily some companies provide housing for people working there.

When I applied for a job there, the company told me that they already knew that their employees can't afford to live there (and this was for an engineering job that would be considered to be high paying in most of the nation).  Instead the offered to give me a company vehicle and gas card and said that I could live wherever I wanted (that I could afford at least) and they would provide the vehicle and gas to get there (I didn't take the job since it would be too much drive time for me).  

Both of these posts confirm my statement that the natural flow of people is that they move out of a geographic area they can't afford.  Housing being that high in the Bay Area means - there are people paying those premium prices living in the area.  High priced homes is not the main reason homelessness in San Francisco is very high.

[anatess2]

10 minutes ago, omegaseamaster75 said:

The homeless problem in SF is not in my opinion related to the housing crisis or inability to earn a fair wage. You have a city that will not enforce property crimes, and has decriminalized drug usage. You have a mild climate and a population who is tolerant of this behavior.

If I wanted to be a homeless bum I'd come to SF. 

THIS is exactly what I was saying.  There are a lot of homeless benefits in San Francisco - natural and man-made.  Same in Honolulu - except, you can't just hitch-hike your way to Honolulu.

Edited June 6, 2019 by anatess2

[Guest Mores]

2 minutes ago, anatess2 said:

THIS is exactly what I was saying.  There are a lot of homeless benefits in San Francisco.

So, when you're talking about "homeless benefits" you're not talking about government handouts (i.e money or food stamps or the like)?

[Guest Mores]

13 minutes ago, omegaseamaster75 said:

The homeless problem in SF is ... You have a city that will not enforce property crimes, and has decriminalized drug usage. You have a mild climate and a population who is tolerant of this behavior.

If I wanted to be a homeless bum I'd come to SF. 

This does tend to explain a lot ... in SF. 

Are all urban areas in CA like that?  LA is having a big problem too.  Sacramento?  San Diego?  How are they doing?  WHAT are they doing?

Edited June 6, 2019 by Mores

[omegaseamaster75]

1 minute ago, Mores said:

This does tend to explain a lot ... in SF. 

Are all urban areas in CA like that?  LA is having a big problem too.  Sacramento?  San Diego?  How are they doing?  WHAT are they doing?

Berkeley, Oakland, the smaller cities near by all have similar problems....once you leave the Bay Area proper or go to the more affluent areas the problem is greatly reduced I circled the areas that have the biggest problem.  Sure there are homeless in the other areas but not nearly what I would consider a problem.

[anatess2]

5 minutes ago, Mores said:

So, when you're talking about "homeless benefits" you're not talking about government handouts (i.e money or food stamps or the like)?

That's included in the benefits.

Usually, when you have natural population magnets (natural benefits) like the coastal regions, the dark side of humanity follows.  This is usually mitigated by well-run law enforcement.  But that only works if you actually have laws that discourage the dark elements.  In the case of San Francisco - they run their laws through the lens of compassion - compassion for dark elements attract more dark elements. 

In my opinion, laws of compassion is fine - if you have a solid plan proven to lift people out of the dark.  If you don't, then you're going to be overwhelmed.  This is a fairly universal experience worldwide even at the very nucleic level of families - most of us have experienced the relative who takes advantage and mooches off of the compassionate family member without any plan to be independent.

[Guest Mores]

2 minutes ago, anatess2 said:

That's included in the benefits.

Usually, when you have natural population magnets (natural benefits) like the coastal regions, the dark side of humanity follows.  This is usually mitigated by well-run law enforcement.  But that only works if you actually have laws that discourage the dark elements.  In the case of San Francisco - they run their laws through the lens of compassion - compassion for dark elements attract more dark elements. 

In my opinion, laws of compassion is fine - if you have a solid plan proven to lift people out of the dark.  If you don't, then you're going to be overwhelmed.  This is a fairly universal experience worldwide even at the very nucleic level of families - most of us have experienced the relative who takes advantage and mooches off of the compassionate family member without any plan to be independent.

Facts about the homeless:  Your contention was that "homeless benefits" are attracting the "dark side of humanity".  I'm wondering what are these benefits.  You've admitted there is no UBI.  What is there in SF that is attracting them?