Thoughts on the Iran deal?

[cdowis]

 Iran said Monday it independently collected samples at a suspect military site where illicit nuclear work is alleged to have occurred and later handed them to the UN's absent inspectors.

The disclosure that international monitors were not physically present is likely to feed critics of a nuclear deal between Iran and world powers, who have poured scorn on measures used to check if Tehran's atomic programme is peaceful
.http://news.yahoo.com/iran-hands-iaea-samples-suspect-military-005156026.html

 

 

Question--> what will be Kerry's response:

 

1. We can trust the Iranians eventually to keep their end of the agreement.  They gave me their personal assurance.

2. I don't understand.

3. Don't worry, it's all part of the terms of the treaty.

Edited September 22, 2015 by cdowis

[cdowis]

U.S. Ambassador Samantha Power said Friday that Iran’s recent ballistic missile test was “a clear violation” of U.N. sanctions.

Power said that after reviewing available information the United States has confirmed that the medium-range ballistic missile launched on Oct. 10 was “inherently capable of delivering a nuclear weapon.”

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2015/10/16/u-s-ambassador-says-irans-ballistic-missile-test-was-a-clear-violation-u-n-sanctions/

++++++++++++++++++==

President Barack Obama said the United States would be “right there at the table” if North Korea made a good faith and serious effort to do away with its nuclear ambitions.

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2015/10/16/obama-vows-to-be-right-there-at-the-table-if-north-korea-wants-to-make-serious-nuclear-deal/

[Guest]

I know this sounds really naive.  But hear me out.  

 

I'd like to know if there has been any tangible evidence that Pakistan, India, or North Korea has a PROVEN, FUNCTIONAL nuclear weapon.  Anyone have references of actual testing?

 

The reason I'm asking is that as I visit third world countries, the one thing that continues to dumbfound me is that they really don't understand modern technology.  They use it because it has been exported from the US.  But it seems like they don't really understand it.

 

My company requires us to use a third world country as "High Value Engineering Centers" (HVECs).  Basically, we can pay them much less for nearly the same quality of work.  That's the story we tell the client.  

 

But when I (and others in the trenches) actually have to work with them, they never know what they're doing.  We constantly correct them.  We constantly teach and train them to get them to understand the equations, the software, the codes, what makes a good design or a bad one.  And it is about 1/100 of these "experts" that can actually get it.  But even then it's a guy with the highest education and came out near the top of his class and has 10 years experience that seems to be learning like he just graduated.

 

I really have to wonder if they even understand the technology to properly enrich uranium.  It is one thing to run a financial scam or to handle a call center.  But a highly technical precision instrument like the centrifuge required to properly enrich uranium?

 

I wonder if we just let them go, will Iran even be able to get a bomb?

[Guest]

I know this sounds really naive.  But hear me out.  

 

I'd like to know if there has been any tangible evidence that Pakistan, India, or North Korea has a PROVEN, FUNCTIONAL nuclear weapon.  Anyone have references of actual testing?

 

The reason I'm asking is that as I visit third world countries, the one thing that continues to dumbfound me is that they really don't understand modern technology.  They use it because it has been exported from the US.  But it seems like they don't really understand it.

 

My company requires us to use a third world country as "High Value Engineering Centers" (HVECs).  Basically, we can pay them much less for nearly the same quality of work.  That's the story we tell the client.  

 

But when I (and others in the trenches) actually have to work with them, they never know what they're doing.  We constantly correct them.  We constantly teach and train them to get them to understand the equations, the software, the codes, what makes a good design or a bad one.  And it is about 1/100 of these "experts" that can actually get it.  But even then it's a guy with the highest education and came out near the top of his class and has 10 years experience that seems to be learning like he just graduated.

 

I really have to wonder if they even understand the technology to properly enrich uranium.  It is one thing to run a financial scam or to handle a call center.  But a highly technical precision instrument like the centrifuge required to properly enrich uranium?

 

I wonder if we just let them go, will Iran even be able to get a bomb?

 

Yes, this is very naïve indeed.

 

First of all, Pakistan, India, and North Korea have nuclear weapons because the IAEA declares so.  They don't make a habit of declaring nuclear capacity when they see uranium in a matchbox.

 

Secondly, thinking that Asians are inferior in engineering capability is very misguided.  Asia has been engineering things in the same era as Egyptians and Greeks.

 

And if that's not enough to convince you, you can take apart your electronic gadgets and see where it is made.  Even your iPhone is not immune.

 

I don't know who you work for but in my experience, it is not that outsourced people are dumb and stupid.  It is simply that their culture lend to a completely different way of doing things.  Right now, there's an Asian shaking his head at how dumb American Engineers are for doing things the way they do.

[Vort]

Secondly, thinking that Asians are inferior in engineering capability is very misguided.

 

Don't be silly. If Asians were any good at engineering, they would be producing most of our electronics and good, inexpensive automobiles.

 

[Guest]

Don't be silly. If Asians were any good at engineering, they would be producing most of our electronics and good, inexpensive automobiles.

 

 

 

Now, now... to be fair... American automobiles are engineering marvels (I'm one of a very few of my Asian friends that own no other car but an American car)... it's just that, for a while there, American workmanship was notorious for being sloppy.  I think they've overcome that stigma now.

Edited October 19, 2015 by anatess

[Guest]

I never said they are stupid.  I said they are simply not familiar with high tech stuff.  Their culture is one which does not understand it.  Their culture does not welcome it.  It does not welcome education.

 

I have clothing made in those countries, but I haven't seen anything HIGH TECH that I own having a tag that says "made in India" or Pakistan or North Korea.  I see China, Taiwan, Japan, Phillipines, Thailand, & South Korea on my labels of HIGH TECH stuff.  But these are not exactly third world countries.  For example China has large areas that are quite modern even if most of it lives in third world conditions.

 

The Middle East is a different story.  While there is a history of engineering and scientific advancement in ages past, something seems to have been lost throughout the middle ages.  They somehow got stuck in that phase of thinking.  Little to no innovation.  What highly technical projects have come out of the Middle East in the past century?  Enlighten me.

 

While I appreciate the declaration by the IAEA (which answers the question) I still am not convinced that a country like Iran can actually produce a functional bomb without outside help.  Is it true or not that North Korea obtained nukes through its relations with China (honest question)?  Either way, I suppose this opens the door to OBTAINING nukes whether they develop them or buy them.

 

CHANGE OF TOPIC

 

No one has mentioned anything about the fatwa from the Ayatollah.  According to my conversation with a well informed Iranian immigrant, when the Ayatollah issues a fatwa, it sounded very much like an official declaration as in the D&C.  While only a few works in Islam are considered actual revelations (like most of the D&C sections as well as other standard works), a fatwa from the Ayatollah doesn't get overturned very easily.  Never in the history of Iran has an overturning occurred without some great driving force or change of circumstance.  And none have ever been overturned in a short period of time.

 

The Ayatollah has issued a fatwa stating that Iran will not pursue nuclear weapons.  This is an important point.  Many of the statements that we hear from Iran "Death to Israel!  Death to America!  Death to ..." really aren't very serious.  I was flabbergasted when I heard that.  You don't go threatening or crying out "Death To..." and go have lunch and forget about it.

 

But according to my friend, that is exactly what they do.  It is identical to a politician telling us that they really care about us.  They say it with such conviction but then they get into their meetings and it's all about them.  Similarly, the Iranian leaders get up there and cry out "Death to..." with great conviction.  Then they go back into their meetings and completely forget about it and wonder why the west is making so much out of it.

 

There are exceptions.  According to him, Achmedinejad actually meant it and wanted to move the military.  This was highly unpopular.  That is why he was removed.  I asked if he was really as crazy as he seemed.  My friend said, "No, he wasn't really crazy.  He was just an @...."  Well, I guess that makes a lot of sense... NOT!

 

I'm really not sure what to make of all he said.  But one thing I got out of my conversation with him was that the mindset of Iranians when it comes to politics (national or international) is just completely alien to us in the west.

Edited October 19, 2015 by Guest

[Guest]

I never said they are stupid.  I said they are simply not familiar with high tech stuff.  Their culture is one which does not understand it.  Their culture does not welcome it.  It does not welcome education.

 

 

Ok, I'll focus on Pakistan, India, North Korea, and Iran.

 

Iran - if you remember before the west aided in removing the Shah, he was quite a progressive guy.  Iran was teeming with industry rivaling the west.  This is the culture of Iran.  Iranians take it as a deep insult to be compared to an Arab.  The modern sanctions and the backwards thinking of the Supreme Leaders following the Shah impeded their progress but that hasn't stopped Iranian culture from progressing with the modern era.  The lead engineer in my company is an Iranian - he has 3 brothers - one of them a close friend of mine since I stay in his condo when I have to personally attend meetings (I'm a telecommuter).  All 4 of them are highly educated engineers with PhD's and their dad is the same.  They are all also well-versed in the arts.  This is not an uncommon trait for Iranians.

 

Pakistan/India - okay, this is a tricky situation because in both places, especially in India, the culture is superstitious - so they have a healthy dose of mistrust of modern technology.  But, in both places, education is very highly valued.  You must be in New Delhi if 9 out of 10 people you bump into is a graduate of Information Technology.  In both Pakistan and India, the government highly promotes science and technology education and their engineering schools are one of the best in the world... especially nuclear physics.  A Pakistani recently won the Nobel prize for Physics... I think last year.  And back in the 2000's, Pakistan entered the space exploration arena with Badr while India entered space exploration with Chan-something.  But yeah, don't call an East Indian a Pakistani - they will deck you flat!

 

North Korea - yeah, this comes as a surprise even to us Filipinos... but they actually do have a very solid engineering base to power that nuke.  We're used to seeing them launch a rocket only to fall back to the Pacific.  We're used to the barking dog of a leader they had who is more bluster, no substance - like some crazy uncle at a family picnic.  But their trading partner is China.  China has propped that country up with technology both military and commerce.  So, can North Korea launch that nuke IAEA is telling us about?  Well, if China says launch, they can and will successfully launch.

 

 

 

 

No one has mentioned anything about the fatwa from the Ayatollah.  According to my conversation with a well informed Iranian immigrant, when the Ayatollah issues a fatwa, it sounded very much like an official declaration as in the D&C.  While only a few works in Islam are considered actual revelations (like most of the D&C sections as well as other standard works), a fatwa from the Ayatollah doesn't get overturned very easily.  Never in the history of Iran has an overturning occurred without some great driving force or change of circumstance.  And none have ever been overturned in a short period of time.

 

The Ayatollah has issued a fatwa stating that Iran will not pursue nuclear weapons.  This is an important point.  Many of the statements that we hear from Iran "Death to Israel!  Death to America!  Death to ..." really aren't very serious.  I was flabbergasted when I heard that.  You don't go threatening or crying out "Death To..." and go have lunch and forget about it.

 

But according to my friend, that is exactly what they do.  It is identical to a politician telling us that they really care about us.  They say it with such conviction but then they get into their meetings and it's all about them.  Similarly, the Iranian leaders get up there and cry out "Death to..." with great conviction.  Then they go back into their meetings and completely forget about it and wonder why the west is making so much out of it.

 

There are exceptions.  According to him, Achmedinejad actually meant it and wanted to move the military.  This was highly unpopular.  That is why he was removed.  I asked if he was really as crazy as he seemed.  My friend said, "No, he wasn't really crazy.  He was just an @...."  Well, I guess that makes a lot of sense... NOT!

 

I'm really not sure what to make of all he said.  But one thing I got out of my conversation with him was that the mindset of Iranians when it comes to politics (national or international) is just completely alien to us in the west.

 

I've mentioned this in my early posts.  Might even be the very first one on this thread.

 

It's an error to think that Iran is run by the President.  It is not.  Iran - including the President - is a puppet of the Supreme Leader.  So the Supreme Leader issuing a fatwa is quite a serious matter.  And... it's not a "shift in politics" that elected Rouhani.  The Supreme Leader decided to offer the UN the face of a toned-down President... to get this Iran deal.  That's my personal opinion.

Edited October 19, 2015 by anatess

[Guest]

I'll take that under advisement.

[cdowis]

"But according to my friend, that is exactly what they do."

 

Apparently your friend is a trusted adviser to John  "I fell off my bike and broke my leg"  Kerry. 

Edited October 19, 2015 by cdowis

[Guest]

"But according to my friend, that is exactly what they do."

 

Apparently your friend is a trusted adviser to John  "I fell off my bike and broke my leg"  Kerry. 

 

It's not just Iran.  I've also heard similar things in the UN (not that it helps the argument).  Some foreign delegates will get up there and simply lambaste the US for XYZ.  Then they'll come up to the the US delegation and say,

 

"So, you up for lunch?"  

The US reps respond, "Are you serious?  After what you just said?"

"Oh! That?  Don't worry about that.  It's just what we do."

"Well stop doing that."

Complete and utter disbelief.  "Why? I don't understand."

[Still_Small_Voice]

Iran is continuing to test ballistic missiles.  U.S. Ambassador Says Iran’s Ballistic Missile Test Was a ‘Clear Violation’ of United Nations Sanctions.

 

Read more here:

 

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2015/10/16/u-s-ambassador-says-irans-ballistic-missile-test-was-a-clear-violation-u-n-sanctions/

[Traveler]

Iran is continuing to test ballistic missiles.  U.S. Ambassador Says Iran’s Ballistic Missile Test Was a ‘Clear Violation’ of United Nations Sanctions.

 

Read more here:

 

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2015/10/16/u-s-ambassador-says-irans-ballistic-missile-test-was-a-clear-violation-u-n-sanctions/

 

It looks like - to me - that some journalist does not quite know the difference between a guided missile and and ballistic missile.  In essence a ballistic missile is designed to "follow" and stay on a calculated path.  A guided missile is capable of changing it initial projected path.

[Blackmarch]

It looks like - to me - that some journalist does not quite know the difference between a guided missile and and ballistic missile.  In essence a ballistic missile is designed to "follow" and stay on a calculated path.  A guided missile is capable of changing it initial projected path.

yes that is the technicality... as tech progresses however the two sides will get merged. I think the journalist is appealing to popular context more than the technical.

you also have both guided phase and then the ballistic phase in (older) ICBMs.

US is getting ready to field artillery shells that will have some capacity of guidance... russia is fielding MIRV warheads that have stealth and avoidance capabilities.

As for the article itself never clarifies the capabilities of the missile other than being more accurate (possible longer ranged) ground to ground than previous types.

[Guest]

I agree.  There simply isn't enough detail in the article to really tell much.

[cdowis]

The latest developments on Iran and the deal

 

http://video.foxnews.com/v/4583948101001/inspection-of-iran-nuke-facility-finds-equipment-missing/?intcmp=hpbt2#sp=show-clips

 

 

[Guest]

cdowis,

 

that "development" sounds eerily like the WMD investigation in Iraq.  Is anyone else having deja-vu?

[cdowis]

We can only hope you are right, but the crux of the Iranian deal is that they will honor the terns of the deal, which includes full disclosure.

If our hope turns out to be a fantasy, the consequences would be very serious.  We are literally betting the peace of the world and the survival of Israel on the verification of the terms of the treaty.  

 

Obama is willing to take that bet in order to secure his legacy, despite evidence to the contrary.

[Blackmarch]

We can only hope you are right, but the crux of the Iranian deal is that they will honor the terns of the deal, which includes full disclosure.

If our hope turns out to be a fantasy, the consequences would be very serious.  We are literally betting the peace of the world and the survival of Israel on the verification of the terms of the treaty.  

 

Obama is willing to take that bet in order to secure his legacy, despite evidence to the contrary.

ya pretty much.