North Korea

[laronius]

I know there are rules about what topics can and can't be discussed here on this forum but being new and inexperienced in the finer points of forum laws I will proceed under the guise of ignorance. There are also aspects of the gospel that naturally bleed over into things of a political nature. So I will also couch this in a gospel theme so as to somewhat justify this post, not intending this to be a political post but rather a discussion (and perhaps some finely wrought speculation) about how the Lord intends to accomplish his purposes in the world in which we now live.

With all that is happening in North Korea these days the thought occurred to me the other day about one potential fallout scenario from all this. Trump has been putting a lot of pressure on China to leverage whatever influence they have on their neighbor to the south. China appears to be responding. I'm not completely convinced that Kim Jong-un is as irresponsible as he would have us believe but I could be totally wrong there. What if relations between North Korea and China go south and North Korea begins a conflict with China. The result could be catastrophic in the short term but may end up producing some much needed changes in that region, changes that could allow the Church to enter into both nations. At the present time I don't see the way opening up for the spread of the gospel into that part of world without some serious and potentially deadly conflict/natural disaster taking place, whether it be this or some other future event. Any thoughts?

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, laronius said:

I know there are rules about what topics can and can't be discussed here on this forum but being new and inexperienced in the finer points of forum laws I will proceed under the guise of ignorance. There are also aspects of the gospel that naturally bleed over into things of a political nature. So I will also couch this in a gospel theme so as to somewhat justify this post, not intending this to be a political post but rather a discussion (and perhaps some finely wrought speculation) about how the Lord intends to accomplish his purposes in the world in which we now live.

With all that is happening in North Korea these days the thought occurred to me the other day about one potential fallout scenario from all this. Trump has been putting a lot of pressure on China to leverage whatever influence they have on their neighbor to the south. China appears to be responding. I'm not completely convinced that Kim Jong-un is as irresponsible as he would have us believe but I could be totally wrong there. What if relations between North Korea and China go south and North Korea begins a conflict with China. The result could be catastrophic in the short term but may end up producing some much needed changes in that region, changes that could allow the Church to enter into both nations. At the present time I don't see the way opening up for the spread of the gospel into that part of world without some serious and potentially deadly conflict/natural disaster taking place, whether it be this or some other future event. Any thoughts?

I don't think conflict is likely.  Everyone has too much to lose, despite how everyone is talking.

What is almost certainly going to happen is a long term cold war between North Korea and everyone else.  

I think the thing to do may be to withdraw but make sure that South Korea and Japan have real nukes first and can defend themselves.  This will shatter any delusions Kim has about reunifying South Korea.  Then get America off of the front burner, as life with go on in the region, just like life went on for America during the Cold War with Russia (1950s-80s).

Edited September 13, 2017 by DoctorLemon

[Guest MormonGator]

13 minutes ago, laronius said:

What if relations between North Korea and China go south and North Korea begins a conflict with China. 

Not possible. North Korea starting a fight with China will never happen. North Korea would go into complete collapse without the food, cash, illegal drugs, weapons, black market DVDs, etc that China gives them. That would be the epitome of biting the hand that feeds you. North Korea knows this. China knows this. North Korea doing anything against China is like a seven year old kicking his dad in the shins on allowance day. Eventually Daddy will smack the kid on the butt and tell them no more allowances for a very long time. 

Edited September 13, 2017 by MormonGator

[laronius]

If we were dealing with a man who truly cared for his country I would agree but I don't know if that is the case. What China wants is a stable Korean peninsula (not entirely under the influence of the US). If Kim Jong-un gets it in his mind that China represents a threat to his regime we don't know how far he might go. I guess it all comes down to how content Kim Jong-un is with maintaining power as opposed to increasing his standing in the world.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, laronius said:

If we were dealing with a man who truly cared for his country I would agree but I don't know if that is the case. What China wants is a stable Korean peninsula (not entirely under the influence of the US). If Kim Jong-un gets it in his mind that China represents a threat to his regime we don't know how far he might go. I guess it all comes down to how content Kim Jong-un is with maintaining power as opposed to increasing his standing in the world.

Even if Kim doesn't care about his people, he certainly cares about himself.  If he gets into a nuclear war with the USA or China and his country gets trashed, remember Kim is notoriously reclusive and virtually never leaves Pyongyang.  That would be the end for his Pyongyang mansion complex with indoor water slides.  That would be the end of his fancy banquets with elites.  He would be living in a radioactive hole for the rest of his life (or until someone from China or the USA hunts him down).  

Thank heavens Kim is not a jihadist...  that would truly be the worst...

[Guest MormonGator]

8 minutes ago, DoctorLemon said:

Even if Kim doesn't care about his people, he certainly cares about himself.  If he gets into a nuclear war with the USA or China and his country gets trashed, remember Kim is notoriously reclusive and virtually never leaves Pyongyang.  That would be the end for his Pyongyang mansion complex with indoor water slides.  That would be the end of his fancy banquets with elites.  He would be living in a radioactive hole for the rest of his life (or until someone from China or the USA hunts him down).  

Thank heavens Kim is not a jihadist...  that would truly be the worst...

Okay forum I need to tell you this- @DoctorLemon and I are two separate people. But we agree on so much lately. He's been taking my cool kids club classes. I charge 100 bucks an hour, talk to @zil and she'll set you up. @DoctorLemon will give a good recommendation and testimonial. 

And he's exactly right again.  The reason MAD (mutually assured destruction) worked so well during the Cold War was that both counties (Soviet Union and USA) didn't want to die. They wanted to live. Jihadists don't care about life, so they are truly dangerous. 

Kim doesn't care about his people but he personally cares deeply about himself. He won't do a thing towards us for many reasons, and he won't do a thing towards China for the obvious reason that he understands that that would be suicide. I'm dumb as a rock, and I get that. He does too, trust me. 

Edited September 13, 2017 by MormonGator

[askandanswer]

39 minutes ago, MormonGator said:

Okay forum I need to tell you this- @DoctorLemon and I are two separate people. But we agree on so much lately. He's been taking my cool kids club classes. I charge 100 bucks an hour, talk to @zil and she'll set you up. @DoctorLemon will give a good recommendation and testimonial. 

 

And I charge $50 an hour for anyone who needs deprogramming after having belonged to gator's cool kids club

[Guest MormonGator]

4 minutes ago, askandanswer said:

And I charge $50 an hour for anyone who needs deprogramming after having belonged to gator's cool kids club

It's a win for everyone!

(well, everyone meaning @askandanswer and myself)  

[JohnsonJones]

13 hours ago, MormonGator said:

Okay forum I need to tell you this- @DoctorLemon and I are two separate people. But we agree on so much lately. He's been taking my cool kids club classes. I charge 100 bucks an hour, talk to @zil and she'll set you up. @DoctorLemon will give a good recommendation and testimonial. 

And he's exactly right again.  The reason MAD (mutually assured destruction) worked so well during the Cold War was that both counties (Soviet Union and USA) didn't want to die. They wanted to live. Jihadists don't care about life, so they are truly dangerous. 

Kim doesn't care about his people but he personally cares deeply about himself. He won't do a thing towards us for many reasons, and he won't do a thing towards China for the obvious reason that he understands that that would be suicide. I'm dumb as a rock, and I get that. He does too, trust me. 

There's one thing that makes it fall apart though.  One assumes Kim is a total dictator.  He isn't from what I see.  He, or the other sides of the equation may be willing to start a war if they see that they are doomed anyways.  For them, it probably is better to kill everyone around them if they are going to die anyways.  OR, if they see it as a better alternative...better to see the others die and live in a hole in the ground then to have them feed you to the dogs.

[Guest]

7 hours ago, JohnsonJones said:

There's one thing that makes it fall apart though.  One assumes Kim is a total dictator.  He isn't from what I see.  He, or the other sides of the equation may be willing to start a war if they see that they are doomed anyways.  For them, it probably is better to kill everyone around them if they are going to die anyways.  OR, if they see it as a better alternative...better to see the others die and live in a hole in the ground then to have them feed you to the dogs.

There is a case that, if we are going for containment, we don't squeeze North Korea too hard with sanctions and the like.  In containment, we want to keep North Korea as weak as possible while minimizing the likelihood for attack for the long term, until someone more sensible gets into office in North Korea who maybe we can actually work with.  As such, we would not want to squeeze North Korea to the point they feel all is lost and start nuking everyone they can (nor would we want to let up to the point North Korea marches in and invades South Korea because it feels strong).  

I do think containment may well work, however, because North Korea has had chemical weapons for years and has been deterred from using them.  I am sure, if they were not deterrable, they would have used such weapons against South Korea, Japan, etc. years ago.  Remember, chemical weapons can be just as devastating as nukes... nukes just get all the media attention.  In a very real way, North Korea has been deterred for many, many years, and the addition of nukes probably will not change this (although we will have to learn to live with it when Kim makes wacky threats, which is one of the few things he can do in this environment).

[Guest]

Been reading more about this topic lately and the option of deterrence for North Korea.

One thing I find interesting is that North Korea's ultimate goal is to push America out of South Korea as a prelude to forced reunification.

I am puzzled by this final goal.  Does Kim Jong Un not see what that would mean for his regime?  If 20 million starving, poorly equipped North Koreans try to rule over 60 million highly educated, liberalized South Koreans raised in essentially a Western culture (and many of whom have military training), do you know what is going to happen?  Can we say the mother of all insurgencies, leading to the destruction of the Kim regime, serious unrest in China, and ultimately the end of Communism?

If I were Kim, I would be terrified of reunification and quit while I was still ahead.

Edited September 16, 2017 by DoctorLemon

[Vort]

2 hours ago, DoctorLemon said:

Been reading more about this topic lately and the option of deterrence for North Korea.

One thing I find interesting is that North Korea's ultimate goal is to push America out of South Korea as a prelude to forced reunification.

I am puzzled by this final goal.  Does Kim Jong Un not see what that would mean for his regime?  If 20 million starving, poorly equipped North Koreans try to rule over 60 million highly educated, liberalized South Koreans raised in essentially a Western culture (and many of whom have military training), do you know what is going to happen?  Can we say the mother of all insurgencies, leading to the destruction of the Kim regime, serious unrest in China, and ultimately the end of Communism?

If I were Kim, I would be terrified of reunification and quit while I was still ahead.

Kim would like to be the Supreme Dictator over a reunified Korea. I'm sure he believes that, with South Korea's money and educated workforce, he could become much more important. Kim strikes me as a fairly garden-variety megalomaniac with the bad fortune to have been born in a position to exercise his proclivities.

The real winners from a reunified Korea would be China. If you want to understand where such motivations arise, look no further. China may not be happy with Kim's recent activities, but for sure they are looking to see how to maximize their benefit from whatever happens.

[Just_A_Guy]

On 9/14/2017 at 9:25 AM, DoctorLemon said:

In a very real way, North Korea has been deterred for many, many years, and the addition of nukes probably will not change this (although we will have to learn to live with it when Kim makes wacky threats, which is one of the few things he can do in this environment).

I can see him also amping up his kidnappings, though; and he's reasonably well situated on the shipping lanes to get whatever he needs through piracy if he's sure other nations won't retaliate.

And of course, there's always the danger of an alliance with the Iranians.