Prognostication

[Ironhold]

18 hours ago, Carborendum said:

Anyone taking bets on WWIII?

The US is gearing up for war with China.  It may be "just in case".  Or it could be, "Yeah, it's happening."

Zelensky said we're going to have US troops fighting with them. (Prediction? Warning? Demand?)

The media's 180 on the COVID lab leak is saying that they are not going to pull punches to salvage our relationship with China.

Taiwan just received a whole lot of materiel from the US to defend against the persistent Chinese fly-overs.

China has raw numbers and various nuclear devices. 

But they have no real ability to project their power outside of their current borders, their supply chains are virtually non-existent, their soldiers are often given substandard equipment & rations, and their combat vehicles are still essentially Soviet garbage. 

The higher-ups know that unless they overwhelmed any opponent with raw numbers it would eventually go very, very poorly for them. 

That's why China has made it a point to engage in espionage, cyber combat, and economic warfare instead of getting into direct shooting matches. 

[LDSGator]

1 minute ago, Ironhold said:

China has raw numbers and various nuclear devices. 

But they have no real ability to project their power outside of their current borders, their supply chains are virtually non-existent, their soldiers are often given substandard equipment & rations, and their combat vehicles are still essentially Soviet garbage. 

The higher-ups know that unless they overwhelmed any opponent with raw numbers it would eventually go very, very poorly for them. 

That's why China has made it a point to engage in espionage, cyber combat, and economic warfare instead of getting into direct shooting matches. 

Perfectly said. 

[Ironhold]

2 minutes ago, LDSGator said:

Perfectly said. 

 

This is what the Chinese navy gives their people as 24-hour rations. 

Each 24-hour ration is three meal kits. 

Each meal kit is two heavily processed meat & vegetable bars, a glucose bar, a small bit of beef jerky, and a few other items. It's all heavily processed, poorly packaged, and would generally make for a miserable existence. Even the *Russian* 24-hour kits have more variety and nutritional content. 

This is the state of the Chinese military and what they're making their people potentially have to live on.

[LDSGator]

1 minute ago, Ironhold said:

 

This is what the Chinese navy gives their people as 24-hour rations. 

Each 24-hour ration is three meal kits. 

Each meal kit is two heavily processed meat & vegetable bars, a glucose bar, a small bit of beef jerky, and a few other items. It's all heavily processed, poorly packaged, and would generally make for a miserable existence. Even the *Russian* 24-hour kits have more variety and nutritional content. 

This is the state of the Chinese military and what they're making their people potentially have to live on.

Once again, complete agreement. 

I’m hardly an expert on China, but my brother lives there now and we’ve hosted two Chinese exchange students in the past five years. Most Americans are absolutely clueless about even the basics of China. 

[LDSGator]

Just to be clear, I was clueless about China too until recently and like I said, I’m no expert. 

[Ironhold]

47 minutes ago, LDSGator said:

Once again, complete agreement. 

I’m hardly an expert on China, but my brother lives there now and we’ve hosted two Chinese exchange students in the past five years. Most Americans are absolutely clueless about even the basics of China. 

If not for information warfare and strict internal censorship, the communist government would have collapsed. 

Instead, the people have been filled with so much propaganda that it's hard to rally the public even when overt crimes are happening.

[LDSGator]

6 minutes ago, Ironhold said:

 

Instead, the people have been filled with so much propaganda that it's hard to rally the public even when overt crimes are happening.

True, but the communist party is terrified that they’ve lost/are losing young people. They can’t control the internet, and they know it.  In fact, I’ve seen people share things about the Chinese government that would make the Commies cringe in fear. 

 

[Carborendum]

3 hours ago, Ironhold said:

China has raw numbers and various nuclear devices. 

Their raw numbers don't really matter much in today's age of technological warfare (I'm using a very broad definition here).

I have no way of knowing if they'd actually use their nuclear devices.  They'd have to be convinced that the US would not retaliate.  So, they'd only use them on soft targets.

3 hours ago, Ironhold said:

But they have no real ability to project their power outside of their current borders, their supply chains are virtually non-existent,

I think this is why China will be more likely to attack Russia than the South China Sea region.  Xi Xinping has shown himself to be a man who would sell out his own children if it meant that he would get more power.  I wonder if in his own twisted mind, he actually believes that would also guarantee Chinese prosperity.

The raw numbers is also a weakness that Xi doesn't seem to care about.  If the supply chains are blocked off, he'll just cut rations to "the unwashed masses."

3 hours ago, Ironhold said:

The higher-ups know that unless they overwhelmed any opponent with raw numbers it would eventually go very, very poorly for them.

I'm not sure about this.  Yes, they have the biggest standing army in history.  But what does that mean when we can carpet bomb them to oblivion?  They can't easily transport those troops by air or sea.

I'm not an expert on the details of warfare, but how do you see it playing out where their numbers would matter?

It would seem that they'd only matter to Asia.  What would they gain from that?  India and Afghanistan (all the -Stans) are not exactly soft targets.  India is about to surpass China for population.

3 hours ago, Ironhold said:

That's why China has made it a point to engage in espionage, cyber combat, and economic warfare instead of getting into direct shooting matches. 

Yup.  And I don't know how this can be countered with the rising generation.

If you can excuse me for a bit of racial stereotyping: Asians, math, computers.  And beyond stereotypes, there are some realities.

China has made it a point to get the best math and science minds in their country to work for the government.  Meanwhile, the woke ideology is actually born from Chinese propaganda to demoralize the US.  And it specifically targets Asians at the advanced education levels.  Of course, it hasn't been as successful as they had hoped.  But it has made a dent in the quality of overall candidates for STEM fields.

Edited March 3, 2023 by Carborendum

[Guest Godless]

1 hour ago, LDSGator said:

True, but the communist party is terrified that they’ve lost/are losing young people. They can’t control the internet, and they know it.  In fact, I’ve seen people share things about the Chinese government that would make the Commies cringe in fear. 

 

If real dissent builds up in China, it'll get ugly fast, and Corporate America will have a hard time keeping blood off its hands. A lot of companies stand to lose their cheap labor source if the communist regime loses its iron grip. Apple has already been accused of limiting iPhone features in China that would help people organize outside of conventional (and government-monitored) communication methods.

[Carborendum]

3 hours ago, Ironhold said:

This is the state of the Chinese military and what they're making their people potentially have to live on.

I'm not sure if this is as bad as we might think.  Many Chinese live on so little, that they may be happy to get 3000 calories a day in food.  As for the flavors that they reviewer mentioned, Asians don't care.  Heck, I'm an Americanized Asian, and I don't see a problem with the rations.  I could live on that for months and be happy.

I actually lived on less for about 9 months? (IIRC) while going to college.

[Carborendum]

14 minutes ago, Godless said:

If real dissent builds up in China, it'll get ugly fast, and Corporate America will have a hard time keeping blood off its hands. A lot of companies stand to lose their cheap labor source if the communist regime loses its iron grip. Apple has already been accused of limiting iPhone features in China that would help people organize outside of conventional (and government-monitored) communication methods.

I don't see why XI would be opposed to simply ordering another Tiananmen Square event.

[Vort]

3 hours ago, Carborendum said:

I don't see why XI would be opposed to simply ordering another Tiananmen Square event.

It would be on a much broader scale, but I agree, I don't see the idea of doing such a thing as any sort of obstacle.

[LDSGator]

5 hours ago, Godless said:

If real dissent builds up in China, it'll get ugly fast, and Corporate America will have a hard time keeping blood off its hands. A lot of companies stand to lose their cheap labor source if the communist regime loses its iron grip. Apple has already been accused of limiting iPhone features in China that would help people organize outside of conventional (and government-monitored) communication methods.

All true. 
 

I choose to be optimistic then it comes to China. When I see Chinese guys leading underground bands with lyrics comparing Xi to a squealing pig (and I mean no insult to such a noble animal) it makes my heart fill with glee. 

[Guest Godless]

The Freedom Caucus is going to make next year's election cycle very interesting for the GOP.