Trump and Putin talk about ending the war

[LDSGator]

https://abcnews.link/BdhL3vw?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR2pFbeQB0nOmgVMpFB2p-Hf4lNoJ-Msm2VPWx2pcFLN18BDuMhf3vivZfs_aem_rBlkVRNiTHdt12eTBldwKA
 

The left claims to be anti war. They aren’t of course. I have no confidence that they’ll give Trump credit for ending this, if he does. 

[LDSGator]

The only thing I’m worried about is if Russia gets large chunks of the Ukraine.  I don’t want “Peace in our time” 2.0

[NeuroTypical]

My guess is it will look like: 

- Deal about no further NATO expansion.  Probably including US not sending arms & $$ to Ukraine any more.
- Some sort of trade deal about energy/food/etc.
- Agreement about where the new lines will be drawn.
- Agreement about reparations/rebuilding aid
- Killing stops, Trump gets major campaign promise win.

Unless Europe wants to pick up and take over sending them aid, it would seem Ukraine is in a pretty weak position here.  I can easily see Trump pressuring Zelynski to just accept whatever he and Putin put together.  "We can always just stop funding you."

The larger issue seems to be America (and others) abandoning the globalist way of doing things that have prevailed since Bush I.  Nations going back to good old fashioned protectionism and nationalism.  Seemingly as a way to halt China's ascendency.  I don't know enough to have a relevant opinion about it.  

As for 'peace in our time', Russsia's deal seems to be the same centuries-old deal about "we need buffer to protect the Rodina".  No desire to dominate the world.  Desire to expand driven by NATO's expansion over the last few decades.  So that first deal point has to be real.

[Carborendum]

16 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

- Deal about no further NATO expansion. 

I don't know why we'd want Ukraine in NATO.  Half of the weapons we gave them were sold to enemies of the US.

16 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

Probably including US not sending arms & $$ to Ukraine any more.

I'm for that.

16 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

- Some sort of trade deal about energy/food/etc.

If it is at a good price and it is dependable, why not?  This may be a way that Trump has of reducing commodity prices.  Both Russia and Ukraine have a wealth of natural resources that we are somewhat short on.  If we can get it for cheap...

16 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

- Agreement about where the new lines will be drawn.

That will be a tough one.  I'm not sure what Russia is looking for.  They already have access to the Sea of Azov and the channel under the Crimean Bridge.  I thought that was considered a neutral zone.  But it seemed like he wanted the entire Azov Sea.  Why?  What's in there?  What's on the other side of the bridge that is so important?

I don't know.  I'm asking.

16 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

- Agreement about reparations/rebuilding aid

Not sure about this.

16 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

- Killing stops, Trump gets major campaign promise win.

Yup.

16 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

Unless Europe wants to pick up and take over sending them aid, it would seem Ukraine is in a pretty weak position here.  I can easily see Trump pressuring Zelynski to just accept whatever he and Putin put together.  "We can always just stop funding you."

Yeah, Ukraine will be forced to do as we say.

16 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

The larger issue seems to be America (and others) abandoning the globalist way of doing things that have prevailed since Bush I.  Nations going back to good old fashioned protectionism and nationalism.  Seemingly as a way to halt China's ascendency.  I don't know enough to have a relevant opinion about it.  

This is what most US citizens want (including many Democrats).

16 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

As for 'peace in our time', Russsia's deal seems to be the same centuries-old deal about "we need buffer to protect the Rodina".  No desire to dominate the world.  Desire to expand driven by NATO's expansion over the last few decades.  So that first deal point has to be real.

Yeah, they are stuck in the "buffer zone" mentality.  But modern weaponry has gone beyond that.  When small drones can be controlled from over 1000 miles away, a buffer zone is not as useful as it was in WWII.

Edited February 12 by Carborendum

[Just_A_Guy]

—As much as it pains me to say it:  Ukraine seems unlikely to retain its lost territories—period.

—“Peace in our time” accompanied a virtually bloodless German occupation; it left Germany unsated but—more forebodingly—unharmed and ready to fight again.  This time around the Russkies have already lost 150-200K troops and scads of equipment; their economy is in the crapper; and their illusions of invulnerability are largely shattered.  The Daily Mail claims Russia is gearing up for all out war in Europe by 2030; but I frankly don’t believe they have the resources or the will to do it (not right now, at least).

—Long-term, Russia still covets *all* of Ukraine.  Ukraine should reject any peace that prevents it from preparing for the next invasion in 2040 or 2070 or whenever it happens.

—Frankly, much of the NATO membership has become the sort of authoritarian collectivists (UK, France, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands) that NATO was formed to safeguard against.  The US should probably withdraw, or at least retrench, from its NATO commitments; and clear the way for a new European alliance as a check against Russian expansionism.  I have no problem with a peace that commits to Ukraine staying out of NATO so long as Ukraine has the leeway to join whatever local alliance takes its place. 

—Ukraine should be given nukes (or be allowed a period in which to develop their own nuclear program).  We un-nuked them in the 1990s in exchange for territorial guarantees that we then abandoned.  It seems unlikely that anything else will contain the Russians long-term; and restoring that post-cold-war status quo is the least we can do.

Edited February 13 by Just_A_Guy

[Carborendum]

I do wish we'd have more information about this.  I'm getting all sorts of unbelievable statements about this lately.  It's gotta be fake news.

I'm waiting for some real news about this.

[Emmanuel Goldstein]

If Ukraine is unwilling to deal then we should remove all support from them and let them figure it out on their own. We should not be involved in what is by definition a regional conflict. It is not our business. We should bring all of our forces and materials home and let Europe stand on their own. Our military should be used to protect our interests, now someone else's. We are not the police men of the world.