JoCa

Thoughts, opinions?

?? I never said the bolded; I'm not sure what you are referring to. No recessions do not happen b/c of Capitalism, they happen b/c of the Fed and fractional reserve banking; that's it, no more no less. It used to be that recessions happened due to unforeseen circumstances like a hurricane, drought, etc. But that is not the case today. No a recession is a correction due to an unnatural process of excess credit that is unleashed, i.e. we have an entirely fictional monetary system that is backed up by nothing. Just b/c it is fictional doesn't mean you don't need it or can't get real stuff with it. All you need to know is how money is created, how it is destroyed. Currently all money is created by debt, full stop. Everything runs on credit and consequently when the credit well slows down or stops, recessions happen. If the Fed allows the creation of credit to go on too long without stopping it you end up with bubbles or massive inflation. While banks and the fed can control to a large extent the flow of credit, they can't control where it goes. And if you want to get wealthy in this life, the best thing you can figure out is where the money will go before it gets there and to get out before the tide goes out. All I'm saying is that now is not the time to be jumping into massive debt; now is the time to be paying it off. When the recession hits, that is the time (if you have a job), to go on a spending spree. To the 2nd bold, no you don't need those things, but if you aren't aware of how the monetary system works nor what is going on right now and what will come in the future shortly it's going to be real hard to ever become financially independent . . .which is exactly what the whole system is set up to do-extract wealth from the little peons all the while the fat cats get more and more. It is no coincidence that the rich get richer and the poor get poorer (baring technological increases); the system is set-up to do that. I have sympathy for Occupy WallStreet, wrong tactics and wrong people to blame-but they were on the right track as far as the symptoms go. There is a reason why the 1% are the 1% and outside of a few outliers it has very little to do with how hard they worked.

More data for you: https://www.themaven.net/mishtalk/economics/debt-deflation-setup-credit-card-defaults-and-subprime-auto-delinquencies-rise-iA4oa13Oh06vhe6aFIzb0Q The first thing that happens is people stop paying credit cards . . . why b/c it's the easiest one to stop paying with minimal consequences. We are obviously not in a recession, however there are a plenty of serious warning signs and my guess is over the next 6 months they will get more pronounced. Recessions don't just "happen", they are a process and if one knows what to look for and how the business cycle works one can know what signs to look for. The data is slowly but surely degrading.

Not so. Great to the above . . .until you lose your job! Recessions do matter for housing. No job, no income, no mortgage payment, no house. All of the above is just more reason why we are getting close to a bust. . . .people aren't thinking about it or if they do, it's not that big of a deal. And actually, yes you can say "I'm not going to buy a house"; I did it and it worked out very well for me. Things change a little bit once your already own a house free and clear. If you own free and clear say you bought for 300k, housing drops 50% and you need to move. Not a real big deal. If you have a mortgage housing drops 50% and you need to move then it is a big deal. Again, no one is thinking about the downside risks to housing right now . . .it can "only go up" or it "will recover" or "people aren't using ARMs so it won't be bad". Just b/c a recession is coming doesn't mean the world stops . . . it can't and it shouldn't. But if you aren't at least aware of it and protecting your downside risk you will be in for a lot of pain. Some of the wisest financial advice I've ever heard. Except for the career you choose, when you buy a house will have greater impact on the wealth you have in life. KY might be fine, there are plenty of places that are fine . . .but the warning signs are flashing, if you live in a hot market be very, very careful. I'm seeing plenty of signs. low downpayment or 0% down loans are back. ARMs are back (not as bad as they were, but they are there). Look at the people putting in offers on places. Had a recent offer on a relative's home. 0% down loan, they offered 2% above list b/c they couldn't come up with the money for closing costs! Place I'm looking at buying wouldn't budge b/c they bought 0% down are selling <9 months after they bought and want to get back what they put into it (i.e. price + realtor fees .. . good luck charlie!). And those are 2 different states too. http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-mortgage-down-payment-20170629-htmlstory.html The typical down payment for 60% of first-time home buyers is 6% or less, according to NAR’s latest data. But the association’s research finds few adults ages 34 and younger (just 13%) realize they can buy a house with a down payment of 5% or less. http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/search?updated-max=2017-11-01T07:00:00-04:00&max-results=10&start=40&by-date=false Now are we 2007 bubblish crazy-town. No absolutely not. But 2007 was an exceptional housing bubble-never before seen in the modern history of the US. Are we currently extremely elevated by historical standards. Oh heck yeah. Housing prices are about (inflation adjusted) about where they were in '05. I think we can all agree that while '05 wasn't '08, '05 prices were out of wack. So yeah, housing prices nationally are currently out of wack. Oddly enough it was '05 the last time when I personally started saying housing prices were a bubble. And '05 the fed was in a rate-hiking mode. I don't think it will take 2 years to get to a recession but it could. But I feel pretty confident in saying, baring a massive spike of income inflation, we will be revisiting the current housing price level on the way back down. If you are buying and don't have 6+months of savings to make it through a job lose . . .you shouldn't be buying. Plenty of 2017 quotes and data out there. Housing has increased way faster than incomes.

Sounds like you've got it figured out. Awesome! I would caution against thinking the market could only crash 5-6% https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Louisville-Kentucky/market-trends/ What is interesting is that if you look at the long term trends KY never crashed b/c it never participated in the housing bubble. From 01-06 prices increased 30% not the 80-100%+ that most of the country experienced. And thus it never really crashed (prob. b/c they never really overbuilt) it just stagnated for a long, long time. Prices have increased maybe 30% so you are right, it may never crash, just stagnate for a long time. I will say as a slight antitode that in some areas the charts really didn't do justice to what was happening on the ground in some areas. Sounds like you've done very well financially and have a lot of similar habits to me. I would also recommend getting out of debt soonest . . .a 30 year mortgage is just dumb. Over a lifespan it is highly unlikely that one will go 30 years without a job loss (lose you home), job change (move homes-new mortgage), or major medical (lose home). Get it and pay it off ASAP.

Anyone who is thinking of buying a house or expanding, etc. I'm telling you be very, very cautious right now. This sucker is gonna pop . . . soon. You can trace the housing market back over time and generally speaking every 7-10 years it drops. 2008, 2001 (very minor), 1990, 1984, etc. Most of the time it coincidence very nicely with the economic and economic recessions. I'm telling ya, all the signs are there for an economic recession to happen real soon. Fed will raise rates in Dec. they will probably get in 1 or two more rate hikes before June. My guess is that sometime around then the yield curve will invert and within 6 months we will be in a recession. This time next year is gonna look a lot different. So if you are buying you need to be darn sure you are good for the recession. I would also be very cautious about timing. I actually have to buy/sell soon and I am getting everything ready for Spring, I believe it will be the last hurrah-I'm getting out now and taking my winnings to play ball somewhere else. The last thing you want to do is build a house (get the loan, etc.), wait 6-12 months to move and then you find you can't sell your current house. I have no clue how bad the recession will get . . .but interesting story that most people don't know about the housing crash. There were real estate deals that happened, i.e. people came to closing signed the documents, lawyers signed off on it, etc. that the banks failed before the lawyers collected the cash to pay for the loan; i.e. the closing proceeds came from the lawyer's pocket rather than the bank. If we get into a credit crunch, it could be real bad. I have no idea if it will be a credit crunch recession or just a "normal" business recession. The other thing you could do is find out exactly how much of the house has to be finished to get a CO. You might be able to build a 2-story shell with basement, only finish the first level get a CO and then overtime finish the rest of the house. I plan to go down this route (build as big as I want but only finish off what I need immediately). So if you are going to build, I would sell ASAP!!!! And if you are going with a cookie cutter builder, be cautious it will probably be a lot cheaper in a year or two . .. as in the immortal words of G.W.Bush "this sucker's going down!". My targets are Dow takes a 50% haircut down to ~12000, it might briefly hit 10k (I don't expect it to go under). Nas >50% haircut, housing probably at least a 20% drop. I'm getting ready to deploy some capital to buy up some cheap stuff in a year or two.

I agree with much of what you say. I will amend that in today's society the man is expected to automatically bend to the wife's desire. But if the man expects certain things out of the wife, he is sexists, misogynistic, etc. Again, people use the term SWMBO, but if they ever used the term HWMBO it would be "what a jerk, abusive husband". I'm totally cool with women and children on lifeboats, I'm glad that for an emphasis on women, however without a proper emphasis on the man's role as leader and head of the family . . . it falls apart.

There is a very, very dark underbelly to the modern cultural view of women and this is it. It's a very weird view also, it seeks to elevate women above all else and in the process of elevating women above all else destroys men. I think at a period of time (and in certain cultures today) the reverse is true, i.e. a world view that elevates men above all else and destroys women (strict Muslim, I'm looking at you!). Unfortunately, I believe our current culture has completely emasculated men and therefor many men are a shell of what they can and should be. This happens in the Church too. I can't tell you how much I hate terms like SWMBO or when men in Church make self-deprecating comments about themselves when compared to their wives. Or "happy wife, happy life", how about "happy husband, happy life"??? Personally I really dislike these cultural aspects in our Church. I wish we would just get back to more true teachings on this, i.e. men and women have separate distinct roles and the more each of them do their role properly the better marriage will work. That means that men are to lead, guide, direct (and leading doesn't mean, honey whatever you want). Because I think a major failing in today's society is that women today don't know how to be wives or mothers.

I don't know about the rest of your post, but I follow the economy pretty closely and if you aren't getting prepared to batten down the hatches right now you're a fool. The signs are aligning we will be in a recession pretty soon (my guess is by end of 2018). Screaming stock market, screaming real estate market, low unemployment, low inflation, low rates . .. these things don't last very long at all. We are in 3rd longest expansion ever in US history (in 5 months it will be the 2nd longest). If you aren't squirling nuts for the winter right now . . . .you are nuts (pun intended).

To the first paragraph (bolded) . . . a big well no duh. That is how adultery and unfaithfulness always proceed. It starts in the mind by fantasizing about other women, the "what could be, what might have been, what maybe should have been". Yet inevitably, that is all it is a fantasy and the sooner you realize that, the better. The fantasy will never be reality and if you ever attempt to make the fantasy reality in any way, shape or form, you will be in for a lot of heartache and misery in your life. I have a very simple solution to 1-4 . .. be married to your wife!!!! You have already committed adultery in your heart: 27 ¶ Ye have heard that it was said by them of old time, Thou shalt not commit adultery: 28 But I say unto you, That whosoever looketh on a woman to lust after her hath committed adultery with her already in his heart. 29 And if thy right eye offend thee, pluck it out, and cast itfrom thee: for it is profitable for thee that one of thy members should perish, and not that thy whole body should be cast into hell. 30 And if thy right hand offend thee, cut it off, and cast it from thee: for it is profitable for thee that one of thy members should perish, and not that thy whole body should be cast into hell. What exactly do you think Christ is talking about here?? He is talking about your situation, right here! Pay attention to the Words of Christ! You've got to become married to your wife. Right now you have a piece of paper that says you are married, but a piece of paper is just that a piece of paper it doesn't say anything about what is really going on. Stop worrying about other women and concentrate on and worry about your wife. And yes your wife is right about the 9 years. Right now sir, you need to take care of your actual marriage, b/c if you don't you will find sooner or later you won't have a marriage. Grow up; be a Man of God instead of a slithering carnal man of nature.

?? Dude. A woman who is being physically abused is vastly different than saying "hey I fantasize about other women outside of my marriage, I wonder what would happen if I said something". Two totally different things. Don't compare yourself where you are committing sin to one who has sin being committed upon them, you don't get to claim the victim here. No the 2nd great commandment is getting fulfilled. "Love they neighbor as thyself". I would be telling a younger me the same things I'm telling you-not b/c I hate you or anything of that nature but b/c if you don't watch yourself now, if you don't start guarding yourself now you are in for a lot of pain down the road. Consider it a warning based on of love for my fellow man. (Something sadly today's society has forgotten about . . .sometimes love requires a stern tone).

Awww . . . group hug!!!! Thank you.

I disagree with this idea that one should "hold no secrets" in marriage; when what one means is you should share every thought and feelings you have with your spouse. No you shouldn't share every thought and feeling you have with your spouse. You do that and it's a great way to develop a very unhealthy co-dependent relationship. Sometimes thoughts and feelings should be kept to oneself and not given a voice. Sometimes it helps to give it a voice to overcome it . . .but a lot of judgement and wisdom needs to be exercised in this area. If sharing allows one to draw closer to your spouse and overcome sin, great. But oversharing, even in a marriage, can be problematic.

Yeah except it's all about supply and demand. How many people that would have become doctors now decide not to b/c it's too much hassle or they worry about true fully socialized medicine. I know as of today, I would severely advise any teenager thinking about becoming a doctor to reconsider their choice of profession in life. Because more likely than not at some point in their lifetime we will have single payer fully socialized medicine. And when that happens you can guarantee that what they charge will severely be capped. People really don't understand the absolute destruction that O-care is and will cause. Hospitals in rural areas are completely dying and going out of business . . . supply and demand . . . and with less doctors available it will make prices go much higher. Idiot lawmakers . . . and idiot public.

It's possible it's a troll . . .but it doesn't surprise me if true. The next generation is a pretty narcissistic bunch. This is what people think after they have been told their entire life growing up they are "special". They get an inflated ego, they don't have self-confidence, they have self-aggrandizement and a god-like complex. As a society we are reaping what we have sown. http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/11/10/professor-draws-ire-for-saying-students-will-have-to-work-hard-and-avoid-drinking.html Welcome to crazy-town!! How much worse will it get before God brings the hammer down?

Dude a Whiskey Tango Foxtrot here . . .the above paragraph is not an accurate truth of your soul. I'm going to break it to you man, the above is patently false. You are not a good guy. You have deluded yourself into thinking that you are a good guy simply because of all the things you do, i.e. you rely upon the outward appearance of this world to determine that you are a "good guy", but inside your soul you are dead and that is a sad state of affairs. In life, most people who do bad things say at some point "I'm not a bad person"; but what they really mean is "I'm probably doing something wrong that I need to repent of, but in order to make is seem to others or to myself it's not so bad, I can say -I'm not a bad person". The Natural Man is an enemy to God, has been and ever will be. God cannot look upon sin with the least degree of allowance. At the last day, our actions and our thoughts will condemn us. We have all fallen short of the glory of God and God would have every right to hide His face from us forever . . . yet He is merciful and b/c He is merciful He provided a Savior. This Savior atoned for our sins, my sins and your sins. He allows us to repent of our wicked, sinful nature and to become more like God. Through Christ, we can be made completely different people. Whereas before we were spiritually dead, we can be alive in Christ. Two of the most evil, pernicious, destructive ideologies being thrust into public thought in today's culture is to "Just be who you are, i.e. be "true" to yourself"" and the second is like unto it, "I can't control who I'm attracted do" . Those ideas are evil and of the Devil. It is anti-Christ and completely denies His power! I will give you a hint in life . . .we all have weird, bizarre, random even evil thoughts and feelings that come into our minds and hearts from time to time. A mark of maturity, responsibility and of someone who is converted to Christ is that they don't give shape or form to those things not of God. We cast those thoughts out of our minds-we do no think about them!!! And we find that over time the more we train our minds and hearts to ponder and think upon the things of God rather than the things of Satan, the easier it is to not have evil thoughts/feelings enter into us . . .we literally change our beings to be more Christlike. Frankly, you don't need a psychologist, counselor, etc. What you need is to become converted to Christ! You aren't converted to Christ . . .b/c if you were you wouldn't be posting this message. Alma 5 brother, Alma 5. All the external things don't matter if inside you are dead.

Health care in the country became screwed up when they started forcing hospitals to serve anyone who walked through the door. That was the end. Prior to that you had charity hospitals . .. lower service but that is what charity is, lower service but at least it's service. But no, we live in such a spoiled world people don't want to be responsible and then want someone else to pay for it with the same level of service.

A proper understanding of property rights easily takes care of this problem. When I buy a ticket, I am asking permission to enter into someone else's property. They say yes you can enter my property if you give me some money. Exchange happens and viola I'm on their property (and they can't call the cops on me for trespassing). We should be in 100% agreement that while I purchase the right to enter their property, I did not purchase the right to take a sledgehammer into their property and start smashing walls, just like I didn't purchase the right to take a match and burn the place down, just like I didn't purchase the right to say anything that I want inside the building. Their house their rules. We see this all the time on forums. The online forum while a "public" place is really a private enterprise opened up to the public. I make an agreement I won't do xyz while in their house/theatre/forum. If I violate that agreement I can be kicked out. Thus there is no need for a law that says "you can't yell fire in a theatre", it is (or should be) a given that it is part of the contract when you purchase the ticket. That's why free speech is a little problematic. You absolutely have the right to 100% free speech in any location or medium that you own 100%. Otherwise you are subject to the rules of the private property owner and if it is truly "public" i.e. the government owns it then you have like 90% free speech (the courts have determined the government can put some restrictions on speech on public property with regards to things like lewdness).

Probably. The first thing they would do is to tell everyone they have a grace period (say 3 months) to turn in all their guns and if they don't then they will be fined/jailed/etc. Since most of the guns are registered, it'd be pretty easy to find people who didn't turn in their guns and then fine/arrest/jail/etc. Americas would do well to remember what happened in the 40s. Americas were told to turn in their gold, then immediately afterwards gold ownership was banned and the money devalued 30+%. Just insane to think that for 30+ years owning a blooming piece of inert metal was outlawed! As for right now, the government could not take away guns . . .too many people would pushback. But these things always occur over time; get the people acclimated to "guns are evil, why would anyone want to have them" and finally when enough people have that mentality, boom, remove guns. Sure there might be several thousand people who revolt but if say 70% of the populance thinks "guns are evil", the 30% are going to be outnumber b/c the 70% has the military on their side . . .

I'm okay with someone who is convicted of a felony not owning weapon . . . however even then I wonder about it. Say you robbed a store when you were 20, that means when you are 70 you don't get to own a means of protection?? I don't particularly like that idea. Besides if the guy who robbed a store at 20 wants to have a weapon, they can find it on the black-market. I'm definitely opposed to gun registration. Easy way to simply just take all the weapons in a dictatorship. What is so sad is how many people really do not realize what the right to bear arms is really for (and I agree with JJ, bearing arms is not bearing guns, if they wanted to say guns they would have said guns). It's to ensure the ability of the people to overthrow their own government if necessary. And by contrast, it becomes much harder for a tyrant to take over the country b/c he knows the populace is armed and would very well rise up against him. You just have to look to 3rd world countries (Venezuala, Chile, Argentina, Bolivia, etc.) to see what happens to a country when the people do not have access to weapons and when a tyrant gets in control. You have no way of dislodging them. If the people of Venezuala had weapons, Maduro would be gone in a sec. Oh and for those who say we wouldn't have as many murders with gun control . . .just look at Venezuala. Owning a gun is 100% outlawed, yet it is the murder capital of the world. More dangerous in Venezuala than in Iraq, Syria, etc.

Yeap. We can see time and time again without weapons a populace is powerless to fight back against their own tyrannical country. Can't tell you how many times I see pictures from Venezuala, Cuba, or even Catalonia for pete's sake and just say . . . these people need some weapons otherwise they can't do anything.

Good point; yes I should have clarified inside the US portion of the Church.

Another very wise response and perspective. One of the things that you find out is just how real both God and Lucifer really are. We don't talk much about Lucifer and his powers (and for very good reasons), but it is very, very important to understand just as much as God, Jesus Christ are real individuals and just how much the Holy Ghost is a real entity that inspires us to do good, there is a very real opposing force against God-Lucifer-who tries to thwart everything God does. Joseph Smith went to pray in the grove in the First Vision and there was a very real opposing darkness that came over him that tried to overpower him before God and Jesus Christ appeared to him. And so if God is doing His best through the Holy Ghost to inspire us to do good, then there is an opposing for that seeks to inspire us to turn away from anything that is good. I at one point was a 2-year missionary for the Church and I would always warn investigators that prior to baptism it is possible that some weird/wild stuff might happen (and many times, not always, it did!). What you will generally find is that once individuals have tasted of the fruit of the restored gospel (i.e. they have burning testimonies), if they leave they generally don't just leave and go to another Church, they generally become atheists and then do everything they can to destroy the Church (i.e. ex-mormons). They don't see it in that light and some eventually return to the fold (thankfully!). Those who leave the Church either just stop attending or they become atheist and go anti-mormon. It happens but it is very, very rare that they go to another church. What is interesting about the above pattern is that it almost proves the Book of Mormon itself. The Book of Mormon describes in great detail that in general those groups of people who fought the hardest against the Nephites (or "good guys") were those groups who once were part of the Nephites and then fell away. Finally by their fruits ye shall know them, generally speaking the anti,ex-mormons are so full of hate, anger, bitterness, frustration, etc. that IMO it's hard to see anything godly coming from that perspective.

Emma was very interesting. The long and short is that she had a very big personality conflict with Brigham Young. It is quite fascinating that you can actually see that Apostles and Prophets are human and aren't perfect.

I'm sure there is a document or lecture somewhere. So a few things to clear up. Joseph Smith absolutely recognized the problems and errors with the KJV bible. So much so in fact that after he translated the Book of Mormon and had learned by experience how to receive direct revelation from God (i.e. how God could speak directly to his mind and heart), he went about producing his own translation of the KJV. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Smith_Translation_of_the_Bible So if one believes JS was a legitimate Prophet of God (like unto Moses, Abraham, etc.) then he would have the authorization and ability to make corrections to the KJV as he recognized there were several parts that were wrong. Why did he not use any other version of the bible? Probably b/c in 1830 the common bible version used was the KJV. Later in his life, he had access to other bibles (the Greek), but if wouldn't make much sense to translate the Greek version when the people he was among commonly used the KJV. Currently, in the LDS Church we do use the Joseph Smith Translation (JST) but it appears as footnotes in the LDS version of the KJV. A lot of the actual documentation for the JST the LDS Church doesn't hold "Smith was killed prior to the publication of the JST. At his death, the manuscripts and documents pertaining to the translation were retained by his widow, Emma Smith, who would not give them to the Quorum of the Twelve, although Willard Richards, apparently acting on behalf of Brigham Young, requested the manuscript from her. Consequently, when Young's followers moved to the Salt Lake Valley, they did so without the new translation of the Bible." Article of Faith (core tenants) 7: We believe the bible to be the word of God as far as it is translated correctly; we also believe the Book of Mormon to be the word of God. The other thing to keep in mind is that just because a Church, organization or individual falls into apostasy does not mean everything they produce is evil or of the devil. Just because one loses the authority to claim the right of leadership does not mean that everything in their life (or in the church) is dross. God can absolutely still inspire good men who are trying to do the right thing to do good works. And that's what we believe about the Bible; God inspired men to compile and put together the previous writings of Apostles and Prophets. Now at the same time, they did quite a bit of modification too but by and large the Bible is absolutely inspired by God. The Authority to proclaim "Thus Saith the Lord", i.e. the authority to write new scripture was lost (and this is key). So if you notice in the Bible all the scripture is old scripture. There are no books in the Bible that Bishop Linus wrote, there are no scriptures that Pope John XII wrote. We might have their writings, but no new scripture. The LDS Church most recent canonized scripture D&C 138 in 1918. Most recent pronouncement put into scriptures 1970. It would not surprise me if the 1995 Proclamation on the Family eventually becomes canonized. So in sum the Catholic Church had the ability and inspiration from God to compile previous written scripture by men who had Authority from God to receive direct revelation and authority from God, but they did not have the authority to create any new scripture-which that authority, i.e. to speak in God's name and to write revelation/scripture as one of the ancient Apostles and Prophets was lost.