Tornado in Joplin, MO- How did LDS chapel do?

[slamjet]

Death toll now at 123. Tornado officially an EF5. Edited May 25, 2011 by slamjet

[miztrniceguy]

I hope Joplin can recover. There have only been 5 EF5 tornadoes since the EF scale was adopted in 2007. 4 this year including Joplin.

[MarginOfError]

I'm not going to comment on whether or not these are signs of the times. I don't know and I don't care if they are.

I will say, however, that whether or not there has been an increase in natural disasters is dependent on how you define a disaster. If you define it as the raw number of incidents of tornadoes, hurricanes, earthquakes, or what have you, then there has been no significant increase.

If you use the definition "CRED maintains an emergency disaster database called EM-DAT. An event is categorized as a natural disaster if it kills 10 or more people or leaves at least 100 people injured, homeless, displaced or evacuated. An event is also included in the database if a country declares it a natural disaster or if requires the country to make a call for international assistance" (Live Science), then yes, natural disasters are increasing.

The thing is, by the latter definition, natural disasters are increasing because more people are being hurt and killed. This has as much to do with population density as it does anything else.

While media coverage has already been discussed, another issue that taints how we think about these things is where people choose to live. More than ever before, we buy land on river banks and build expensive homes. Then, when the floods come, the expensive homes are damaged and reports give record numbers for the cost of damages. Again, it isn't that nature has changed so much as the risks we take against nature change.

Another issue...happenstance of the geography. If the tornado that hit Joplin went through a cornfield in rural Missouri, it would get a mention as a point of interest. Unfortunately, it hit a population center, and the toll it took is horrific. There is a huge impact made on how we view these events based on what it is that is hit.

Another good summary

[MarginOfError]

I hope Joplin can recover. There have only been 5 EF5 tornadoes since the EF scale was adopted in 2007. 4 this year including Joplin.

A five year history doesn't give us much information about how extreme that pattern is. We'd need to know how many EF5 equivalents happened before the EF scale was adopted. With the data provided, it's impossible to know if this year's jump is an aberration or just random variation.

[pam]

More tornado's and my ex and kids are in a tornado watch area so they are all sleeping in the basement with their emergency kits. I hate it every time this happens.

I'll keep them in my prayers. As well as Palerider from this site. His area is on tornado watch right now as well. He's also in Missouri.

[miztrniceguy]

A five year history doesn't give us much information about how extreme that pattern is. We'd need to know how many EF5 equivalents happened before the EF scale was adopted. With the data provided, it's impossible to know if this year's jump is an aberration or just random variation.

Only 51 F5 from 1950 to 2007 when the change to EF5 was made. That is less than 1 per year.

[Blackmarch]

O man.. my heart goes to out to the folk in Missouri. Definitely will be keepin people in prayers.

I would have to say I am one to agree that there is an increase of these natural disasters. To play devils advocate, there are also those that have argued that it's only because there is more media coverage, more histories kept that we are aware of it.

I say hogwash to all of that. We have been told and it has been prophesied that there will be great desolations leading up to the last days. This is just some of them.

to argue against the devil's advocate stance I'd say a disaster requires people to be present, hence there are more disasters today than there was in earlier times, whether or not the actual number of natural phenomena has remained the same or has increased.

Altho I'd also go with the opinion that the actual number of violent natural phenomena has been increasing.

[MarginOfError]

Only 51 F5 from 1950 to 2007 when the change to EF5 was made. That is less than 1 per year.

51 occurred from 1950 - 2006 is a rate of .91 F5 tornadoes per year.

5 occurred from 2007 - 2011 is a rate of 1 F5 tornadoes per year.

I'm still not seeing anything to suggest this is anything more than random variation.

[NeuroTypical]

I always go back and forth on the whole "Current disasters are strong evidence of millenium coming quickly" notion.

Yes, end-times prophecies tell us things are going to get a whole lot worse, before they get better.

Pointing to the Joplin tornado (a hundred dead) looks pretty silly compared to 2004 tsunami (230,000 dead). And that looks pretty silly compared to the big Yellow river floods of 1931 and 1887 (a million or more dead each flood). I mean yeah, upwards of 3 million could have died in last decade's North Korean famine, but it's been 50 years since 15-43 million died in the Great Chineese Famine. When was the last time a plague killed off a third of a region like Europe? Aids hasn't even killed two million total since it started. Wars? There hasn't been anything close to WWII (40-72 million dead) in 65 years.

So it seems like 'things getting worse' isn't as clear as one might first assume.

Then people point to rising yearly numbers of disasters, that cost the world more and more every decade.

Then others point to the fact that the earth's population is growing, and we're living more an more in earthquake zones and flood plains, and point out that the earth is doing what it's always done, it's just that we're living there now to make a disaster out of it.

Then the first folks point out that regardless of the reason, the numbers are going up.

So I dunno. I'm doing what I always do - trying to live life as if I won't be around next week. When you're at peace with your God and the humans in your life, you don't fear the end times so much. Tomorrow or next century - doesn't matter to me.

LM

[miztrniceguy]

51 occurred from 1950 - 2006 is a rate of .91 F5 tornadoes per year.

5 occurred from 2007 - 2011 is a rate of 1 F5 tornadoes per year.

I'm still not seeing anything to suggest this is anything more than random variation.

You skipped the part about 4 in 2011.

[MarginOfError]

You skipped the part about 4 in 2011.

I assure you, I did not skip that part. I just have enough education in statistics to know that it doesn't matter. If you want to read more, feel free to go to my blog and read the whole write up. I think one of the most telling images of this story is this one. It's a big image so I won't load it here. But feel free to take a look.

Also, in my blog, I boil it down to a statistical model that shows a non-significant decrease in the annual EF5 tornado rate since 1950. Based on the data, if we were to make any claim, we'd have to say that EF5 tornadoes happen less often now than they have in the past.

I'll also point out that while there have been four EF5 tornadoes in 2011, three of them were produced on the same day by the same massive storm system. Such storm systems are rare, occurring about once every 33 years. It's been about 37 years since the last storm system like that.

I still find nothing out of the ordinary.

[pam]

Before And After: A Bird's-Eye View Of Joplin : NPR

[pam]

Group rides out Joplin tornado inside LDS church building - ksl.com

[Jennarator]

Group rides out Joplin tornado inside LDS church building - ksl.com

What a story. So glad they all can out of that alive! Amazing!

[slamjet]

My ex told me that this past week, the Priesthood was told to get their grubbies, gloves, and camping gear together because this past weekend they went to Joplin for the whole weekend to help out.

[slamjet]

Just talk to my ex-wife and she told me that they canceled all church meetings tomorrow except for Sacrament meeting and other meetings and activities during the week because most all the men are out in Joplin again this weekend, and are going out there during the week to help with the cleanup.

Also, here is an interview with the Stake President.

[slamjet]

Joplin tornado is still wreaking havoc in the area. Now it's fungal infection from all the junk that was churned up.

[ctr123]

I live about an hour and half to two hours east of joplin (I think geography is not my subject). I have heard so many stories and heard so many reasons. There are many many sad and painful stories as well as some good. It can make a person ask the question why would God allow this to happen?

Then yesterday I was reading a book Our search for happiness by Russell Ballard and I came across this: "If there is a God," the empathetic observer might wonder,"how could He allow such things to happen?" The answer Isn't easy, but it isn't that complicated, either. God has put His plan into motion. It proceeds through natural laws-which are, in fact, God's laws. And because they are His, He is bound by them, as are we. In this imperfect world, bad things sometimes happen. The earth's rocky underpinnings occasionally slip and slide, and earthquakes result. Certain weather patterns turn into hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, and drought. That is the nature of our existence on this planet. Dealing with adversity is one of the chief ways in which we are tested and tutored.

Maybe the Joplin tornado was just the weather doing its thing.

My heart goes out to the victims and their familes.

Slamjet I must live close to your ex-wife and kids.

[slamjet]

If you're in the Springfield, Missouri Stake then yes, you are very close.

[slamjet]

You just might be in the same Stake. But to save them from the embarrassment of my obnoxiousness on this forum, I shall refrain from giving details of their digs.

[ctr123]

LOL I understand and wasn't meaning to pry.