The Surprisingly Solid Mathematical Case of the Tin Foil Hat Gun Prepper Or, “Who Needs an AR-15 Anyway?”

[mirkwood]

As gun policy discussions unfold in the wake of mass shooter incidents, they routinely end in three buckets. There’s the “tyranny can never happen here” bucket, which the left has mostly abdicated in the wake of Trump winning after they called (and still call) him a tyrant. There’s the “you can’t fight the army with small arms” bucket, which is increasingly unsound given our ongoing decade-and-a-half war with Afghani tribal goat herders. And there’s the “what the hell do you need an AR-15 for anyway?” bucket, which, by its very language, eschews a fundamental lack of understanding of what those people are thinking. I am not a prepper. But I know a few. Some of the ones I do know are smart. They may not be doing as deep an analysis as I present here, on a mathematical level, but the smart ones are definitely doing it at a subconscious level. If you want to understand the perspectives of others, as everyone in my opinion should strive to do, then you would do well to read to the end of this article. To get where we’re going, we will need to discuss the general framework of disaster mathematics.

 

 

 

https://medium.com/s/story/the-surprisingly-solid-mathematical-case-of-the-tin-foil-hat-gun-prepper-15fce7d10437

[Guest]

I disagreed with precisely one statement in his entire analysis.

Quote

we don’t have any good sources of data on how often zombies take over the world,

Yes, we do. 

[NeuroTypical]

That was a very cool article.  Stormwater hydrology saved my neighborhood from a flash flood, by figuring out where we should build the houses and how we should build the roads.  This is a guy to which it is worth listening.  Plus, he speaks in terms of zombies, which is just too dang applicable to ignore.

[Just_A_Guy]

He’s off by one American civil uprising:  the two-hundred-year slow burn in which natives were supplanted from sea to sea by European colonizers.  He needs to re-run the math.

One of the most surreal experiences I, as a native Californian, ever had; was visiting Virginia, walking through old-town Fredericksburg and trying to imagine columns of government troops marching through and sacking this bit of small-town Americana as they had 150 years ago.  And then walking through a forest behind my sister’s back yard, on part of the Chancellorsville battlefield.  I was already pretty libertarian; but those pictures painted in my mind’s eye sealed the deal.*

* Yes, yes; the Civil War had to happen and the slaves had to be freed; and it was pretty much the South’s fault.  But never again would I say “it can’t happen in America”.

Edited May 6, 2018 by Just_A_Guy

[Still_Small_Voice]

The great Nephite nation was broke apart before the Savior came.  I believe it will likely happen in the United States within the next thirty-five years with the huge differences in political beliefs we see rending this nation apart.  We see people rejecting the Constitution and calling for a repeal of the Second Amendment and other rights.  Many people believe they are entitled to the bread and garments of the laborer with little or no work.  About 55% of the nation does not subscribe to rejecting the Bill of Rights and a socialist state.

I think in addition to water, food storage and some bullion metals getting training on learning to use firearms and picking a good semi automatic rifle as part of that is a good decision. 

I hated the AR-15 for the longest time because of the 5.56 x 45 round until I saw many different rifle calibers that were available in the platform.  The .300 AAC Blackout and the 6.5 x 39 Grendel are great rifle calibers in the AR-15.  I have even seen 9 millimeter Luger available for the AR-15 which is a very very common pistol round that can be used for pleasure shooting and training.

[NightSG]

19 minutes ago, Still_Small_Voice said:

I hated the AR-15 for the longest time because of the 5.56 x 45 round until I saw many different rifle calibers that were available in the platform.  The .300 AAC Blackout and the 6.5 x 39 Grendel are great rifle calibers in the AR-15.  I have even seen 9 millimeter Luger available for the AR-15 which is a very very common pistol round that can be used for pleasure shooting and training.

An AR-10 will give you .308 with the option of a quick barrel change to .243.  Plenty of power, insane long range accuracy and ammo in either is easier to come by than 6.5 or .300AAC

[bigcreek]

Interesting read.

[Still_Small_Voice]

1 hour ago, NightSG said:

An AR-10 will give you .308 with the option of a quick barrel change to .243.  Plenty of power, insane long range accuracy and ammo in either is easier to come by than 6.5 or .300 AAC Blackout.

I like the 7.62 x 51 round.  I own a firearm chambered in it already.  The AR-10 is also a good rifle choice.  I am looking at an intermediate range rifle and .300 AAC Blackout is getting very popular and it uses common AR-15 magazines.  I can see the supersonic and subsonic ammo on Wal-Mart shelves now and in all gun stores.  I am only interested in supersonic .300 Blackout.  The secondary caliber I would have for an AR-15 is 9 millimeter Luger.  You can find 9 millimeter everywhere.

[anatess2]

On 5/7/2018 at 1:11 PM, Still_Small_Voice said:

I like the 7.62 x 51 round.  I own a firearm chambered in it already.  The AR-10 is also a good rifle choice.  I am looking at an intermediate range rifle and .300 AAC Blackout is getting very popular and it uses common AR-15 magazines.  I can see the supersonic and subsonic ammo on Wal-Mart shelves now and in all gun stores.  I am only interested in supersonic .300 Blackout.  The secondary caliber I would have for an AR-15 is 9 millimeter Luger.  You can find 9 millimeter everywhere.

My son’s dream rifle currently is a Falcor Petra.

[Still_Small_Voice]

I looked it up.  Petra Falcor is a .300 Winchester Magnum AR-10 type of rifle that has a manufacturer suggested price of over $5,000.  I also hear that .300 Winchester Magnum rifle barrels only last about 3,000 to 4,000 rounds.  The rifling or throat gets burned out because the caliber is so powerful.  It's a very long range rifle.  It is too expensive for me to consider but certainly not under an under powered firearm.