7%. Oy.


NeuroTypical
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12 minutes ago, Emmanuel Goldstein said:

Last night my wife was in tears because our savings is being burned through by the food and fuel budgets. She asked me why the president doesn't do something about it. I told her, because he and his cult are the ones responsible for this Hyper Inflation. We are pathetic as a country. Stop voting in snakes and vote them out. 

Article Five Now!

According to the international recognized economists (Milton Friedman - Noble Prize in economics 1976) and my source on economics; there is a lag between cause and effect for inflation of about 2 years.  This means that the inflation we are currently experiencing are the results of Trump's policies - primarily the economic relief packages associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.   You can thank Trump for our current inflation.

However, there are two matters that concern me (from my research and information).  The first is that our inflation is being exacerbated by fuel supplies and thus costs.  Since the bulk of Milton Friedman's work we have move from a world economy of warehousing critical supplies to a just in time supply chain philosophy.  This would seem to indicate that inflation lags can be shortened if supplies are cut.  But there is a bit of a problem in my mind - that is that supplies have remained somewhat the same over the last year so in essence there is more of a demand problem than increasing supply problem.  Also we have an economy that seems to me to be dependent on speculation.  In other words this would mean that much of the demand is based in futures speculation.  If this is the case - then things are nuts and more to do with perceptions than realities.

The other concern is our national debt - we are currently crossing a threshold of our national debt exceeding our gross national product.  All examples of this occurring in history have ended in economic collapse - which I understand is that money no longer has exchange value.   Around 50 years ago, in my youth, the members of the Church were advised by general authorities to maintain a 2 year supply of needed goods.  Many good members believed the 2 year supply went well beyond food - which seem to be different from the current concept.   I can recall that the general understanding was that money (including gold and other precious metals and gems) would become worthless.  That barter would become the only means of exchange.  Barter was the primary exchange of my pioneer ancestors that settled in the early western US states.

I lived a modified city life growing up.  We had fruit trees and a large garden in our yard.  We also raised rabbits and chickens for our meat which was also supplemented by fishing and hunting.  What we did not eat fresh - we canned for later.  My mother made most of our clothing.  Most of our gifts (giving and receiving) were home made.  I would add that my parents were quite wealthy - it was not until I returned from my mission that I discovered that my parents did all these thing - not of necessity but because they believe that is how good people lived.  Most of what my parents made (money) was given to charity.   To purchase fancy homes, cars and clothing was considered evil.  My parents believe that we needed to live such a life style to prepare for the return of Christ.

One last little thought.  It was also generally believe (not just by my parents but by most of the ward members) that there would come a time when a large percentage of members would leave the church.  It was believe that they that would leave the church because they would be attracted to Babylon (riches and honors of the world).  That because of their riches they would become lazy and critical of those that labor to supply their basic needs.  I very much dislike money - perhaps because of my upbringing.   I am not sure that our current generations are emotionally and spiritually prepared for what appears to be coming.

 

The Traveler

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3 hours ago, Traveler said:

We also raised rabbits and chickens for our meat which was also supplemented by fishing and hunting.  What we did not eat fresh - we canned for later.

This! I have very little meant in my freezer...because we bottle almost all of it. Power outages won't threaten to ruin our meat supply.

Bottling Rabbit with a little bit of beef boullion added makes it taste so much better in my opinion. :)

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23 hours ago, Traveler said:

According to the international recognized economists (Milton Friedman - Noble Prize in economics 1976) and my source on economics; there is a lag between cause and effect for inflation of about 2 years.  This means that the inflation we are currently experiencing are the results of Trump's policies - primarily the economic relief packages associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.   You can thank Trump for our current inflation.

You're both right and wrong about this paragraph.  I have tremendous respect for Friedman.  And I think 99.9% of what he says about economics is gospel as far as I'm concerned.  So, what I'm about to post doesn't actually counter his ideas.

First, when he won his Nobel prize, storage was different.  Many people kept a dry pantry full of goods.  Stores had much more dry goods with long shelf lives and less perishables.  Inflation was largely controlled by our monetary policy.

But then 7-Eleven happened.  (Long explanation deleted.  I'll explain further if someone asks).

Today, we saw how fast baby formula disappeared when the major plant in the country was shut down.  That's today.  That was in a couple of weeks where supplies were noticeably low.  And a month when it virtually disappeared.  That's not 2 years.  Why?  Because it was not not just about the money supply.  It was about actual changes in supply and demand.

Biden's policies have specifically increased demand and lowered supply for virtually everything.  When that happens in the commercial environment of today, we see almost immediate effects.  It does not take 2 years.

The famine we're finding ourselves in (and make no mistake, it has already begun) is a direct result of government.  And it is mostly because of Biden.

Trump did have something to do with this famine.  He was the one who raised the red flag on COVID.  As much as I supported his other Presidential policies, he messed up big time on this one.  Yes, he left it up to individual states on how to handle it.  But he raised the flag on it and when you give people in power an inch, they take a mile.

Because of that, we ended up with a long train of secondary effects that has hurt our economy.  And while I think it was a big factor in the inflation we see today, I don't believe it was the biggest factor.  The following are not in any particular order.

1) Ukraine War.  Yes, this has done a number on world oil prices.  No denying it.
2) Biden's Oil Leases.  I certainly hope most people are aware of what's been going on there. It's all over the news.
3) COVID relief.  This was only a paltry amount under Trump.  But under Biden, it has gone warp speed.  Perfectly able-bodied individuals refuse to go to work.  Why bother?  They make more money on relief funds than at a regular job.  My son started at national minimum wage ($7.25/hr) about a year ago.  But because they couldn't hire anyone, they had to raise wages to entice more people to work.  He now makes $11/hr.  Many other places had to do the same thing.  My daughter just got off her mission and got a retail job starting at $11.25/hr.

And guess, what?  They all had to raise the price of goods to make up for the higher wages they had to pay.

4) Businesses out of business.  This was originally a result of Trump's COVID policies (exacerbated by certain governors).  But again, Biden sent it into overdrive.

That said, when the 2 years finally comes upon us, we'll find that near the end of 2023 to beginning of 2024, we'll be seeing hyperinflation rates or near hyperinflation rates.  (My prediction is that we'll see about 50% -or more- higher rates than in the 70s). It is around that time that the craziest policies of the Biden administration will have full effect.  We're only seeing the minor effects of his policies.  Just wait until we feel the full effect.

Get your storage in place before this fall.  Right now, things are uncomfortable.  Starting in September, we'll start to see people fighting over gasoline, groceries, etc.  We will see restaurants going out of business because no one will be able to afford them.  The weakest will start going out of business (oh, they were a pretty bad restaurant as it was).  Then the better restaurants that were struggling through COVID will also fall.  Then ...

My prediction is that within a year, most middle class folk will not be going out to eat anymore.  The poor who live in "food deserts" will begin to starve and riots will happen.

By the end of 2023, we won't recognize our country.  Heck, I already don't recognize it from the country I grew up in.  But in the next year you'll see a LOT of changes that will make you wonder if we live in a 3rd world country.

Edited by Carborendum
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19 hours ago, scottyg said:

This! I have very little meant in my freezer...because we bottle almost all of it. Power outages won't threaten to ruin our meat supply.

Bottling Rabbit with a little bit of beef boullion added makes it taste so much better in my opinion. :)

Glad you found a way to improve rabbit.  I will eat rabbit rather than go hungry but to be honest I would prefer the neighbors cat.  This brings me to another point - you know a population is out of food when zoo animals disappear along with unattended (and on occasions even attended) pets.   A population is starving when birds and rodents disappear. 

 

The Traveler

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15 hours ago, NeuroTypical said:

:cry:

 

From today's WSJ:

image.png.566643c0b1e71d48713c1decf5607cda.png

Ms. Yellen is unqualified to forecast anything economic - This is the person that just a few months ago said that our inflation was transitory and nothing to be concerned about. 

 

The Traveler

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2 hours ago, Carborendum said:

You're both right and wrong about this paragraph.  I have tremendous respect for Friedman.  And I think 99.9% of what he says about economics is gospel as far as I'm concerned.  So, what I'm about to post doesn't actually counter his ideas.

First, when he won his Nobel prize, storage was different.  Many people kept a dry pantry full of goods.  Stores had much more dry goods with long shelf lives and less perishables.

But then 7-Eleven happened.  (Long explanation deleted.  I'll explain further if someone asks).

Today, we saw how fast baby formula disappeared when the major plant in the country was shut down.  That's today.  That was in a couple of weeks where supplies were noticeably low.  And a month when it virtually disappeared.  That's not 2 years.

Trump did have something to do with this famine.  He was the one who raised the red flag on COVID.  As much as I supported his other Presidential policies, he messed up big time on this one.  Yes, he left it up to individual states on how to handle it.  But he raised the flag on it and when you give people in power an inch, they take a mile.

Because of that, we ended up with a long train of secondary effects that has hurt our economy.  And while I think it was a big factor in the inflation we see today, I don't believe it was the biggest factor.  The following are not in any particular order.

1) Ukraine War.  Yes, this has done a number on world oil prices.  No denying it.
2) Biden's Oil Leases.  I certainly hope most people are aware of what's been going on there. It's all over the news.
3) COVID relief.  This was only a paltry amount under Trump.  But under Biden, it has gone warp speed.  Perfectly able-bodied individuals refuse to go to work.  Why bother?  They make more money on relief funds than at a regular job.  My son started at national minimum wage ($7.25/hr) about a year ago.  But because they couldn't hire anyone, they had to raise wages to entice more people to work.  He now makes $11/hr.  Many other places had to do the same thing.  My daughter just got off her mission and got a retail job starting at $11.25/hr.

And guess, what?  They all had to raise the price of goods to make up for the higher wages they had to pay.

4) Businesses out of business.  This was originally a result of Trump's COVID policies (exacerbated by certain governors).  But again, Biden sent it into overdrive.

That said, when the 2 years finally comes upon us, we'll find that near the end of 2023 to beginning of 2024, we'll be seeing hyperinflation rates or near hyperinflation rates.  It is around that time that the craziest policies of the Biden administration will have full effect.  We're only seeing the minor effects of his policies.  Just wait until we feel the full effect.

Get your storage in place before this fall.  Right now, things are uncomfortable.  Starting in September, we'll start to see people fighting over gasoline, groceries, etc.  We will see restaurants going out of business because no one will be able to afford them.  The weakest will start going out of business (oh, they were a pretty bad restaurant as it was).  Then the better restaurants that were struggling through COVID will also fall.  Then ...

My prediction is that within a year, most middle class folk will not be going out to eat anymore.  The poor who live in "food deserts" will begin to starve and riots will happen.

By the end of 2023, we won't recognize our country.  Heck, I already don't recognize it from the country I grew up in.  But in the next year you'll see a LOT of changes that will make you wonder if we live in a 3rd world country.

 

I do not stand in disagreement but I have some differing views.  Following your numbers:

1) Ukraine War - I do not see how this directly effects world oil prices.  Our sanctions against Russia would seem more logical but then as strange as it seems our sanctions against Russia appear to me to be hurting the USA and our allies that act with us more than Russia.  

2) Biden's Oil Leases.  This very much concerns me - Previous leases where oil was pumped are still able to pump.  As I understand; the industry has adjusted what is pumped to stay in business.  It is oil exploration that has been shut down.  The sad thing is that it could take as long as a decade or more to get exploration back up and running.  The reason is that very expensive equipment becomes unreliable when not maintained and skilled workers find other employment.  I speculate that this alone and what has already been done, could effect an entire generation.

3) COVID relief.  I believe this is the primary cause of the inflation we are currently experiencing.  But rather than what you explained - I believe the money supply is the greater inflation push - plus without labor items that rely heavily on labor began to have shortages - such a lumber.  But there has been an adjustment but the construction industry is still laden with shortages and failing supply chain problems.  This sector of our economy is more long term and has not recovered from COVID.

4) Business out of business.  The vast majority of business out of business are in the service industry - mostly restaurants.  I believe most companies will cut employment but the reality is that as of now most companies are still heiring.  Strange as it may seem - many temporary summer jobs are currently being filled by foreigners on legal temporary visas.  It is my opinion that our child labor laws have gone way to far and as a result we have a rising generation without a work ethic.  COVID and Biden are not the cause - rather they are a catalysts.   

 

The final engine of inflation that I do not think anyone (government) is watching is that with inflation many start to think to purchase now before prices go up even more - so as long as there is a money supply and credit there will be false or incorrect projections which will fluctuate making unexpected economic peaks and valleys.  But there is a possibility that there are people in the government smarter than me that are doing all this on purpose to create uncertainty and reason for more government oversight.  But this is a fools errand because, in my opinion, I believe that government control of the economy creates instability all by itself.  

It appears to me that things are going south and that the Republicans are void of a backbone to bring about real changes.  General Flynn was convicted by those loyal to the Democratic party and destroyed for the crime of lying to the FBI.  His lie was that when asked if he had met with a Russian individual he said he did not recall.  In contrast the Republicans cannot get a conviction to stand for individuals lying before a FISA Court or presenting certified false information concerning a campaign to the FBI - and note that nothing was done (no individual indited or reprimanded) for all the false information concerning Carter Page.  There will be no corrections to government over reach by either party.  There will be no solutions to anything at this point from our government regardless of which party has the majority.  And I would dare say (referencing a chilling post recently from @mirkwood concerning media coverages of mass shootings) we are not going to be helped to settle our political differences by our free press media. 

 

The Traveler

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