Boris Johnson new British PM

[Midwest LDS]

Congrats to the new Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Hopefully he can finish implementing Brexit. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49084605

Edited July 23, 2019 by Midwest LDS

[Guest MormonGator]

14 minutes ago, Midwest LDS said:

Congrats to the new Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Hopefully he can finish implementing Brexit. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49084605

He'd be my choice, hands down. That said, he has an uphill battle implementing the Brexit plan that he wants. 

[Midwest LDS]

5 minutes ago, MormonGator said:

He'd be my choice, hands down. That said, he has an uphill battle implementing the Brexit plan that he wants. 

Oh agreed I saw what happened to May. But if anyone is going to get it done, Johnson is. 

[Guest MormonGator]

7 minutes ago, Midwest LDS said:

Oh agreed I saw what happened to May. But if anyone is going to get it done, Johnson is. 

Yup. 

My favorite type of people are those who are demanding a second referendum. Because of course they'd be demanding one if their side won in the first place. 

[KScience]

[Midwest LDS]

On 7/23/2019 at 3:18 PM, MormonGator said:

Yup. 

My favorite type of people are those who are demanding a second referendum. Because of course they'd be demanding one if their side won in the first place. 

It's only a fair and honest vote if your side wins. Otherwise it's obviously a fake, manipulated, mistake that doesn't represent true democracy and you have to vote on it over and over again until you overturn the false result.

Edited July 28, 2019 by Midwest LDS

[Guest MormonGator]

12 minutes ago, Midwest LDS said:

It's only a fair and honest vote if your side wins. Oterwise it's obviously a fake, manipulated, mistake that doesn't represent true democracy and you have to vote on it over and over again until you overturn the false result.

When it comes to politics, the level of self delusion some people have is legitimately frightening. 

[NeuroTypical]

I heard some of his acceptance speech.  So much civility and respect, I almost gagged.  Forgot what fresh air smelled like - I thought it was poison for a moment.

[Vort]

Can we trust him? I don't know...

 

[lonetree]

I guess he had little choice, but Boris has 'hit the ground running'. After gathering his cabinet together, his performance against the charges of the opposition's chief sj blather-er is not only inspiring but entertaining(July 25, see the 2hr 17 min. mark).

 

Edited July 27, 2019 by lonetree

[NeuroTypical]

Oh man, I love watching British national politics!  Endless hoot. 

Handy Star Wars reference is handy.

Edited July 27, 2019 by NeuroTypical

[Guest Scott]

In my eyes, Brexit is really none of our business, but we might as well take advantage of it.

I have to go to London in a few months and have noticed that hotel and even airfare prices (and of course all other prices) are only about half what they were before the vote on Brexit.   Not that I wish that on anyone's currency, but Brexit has really crashed the pound sterling agaist the US dollar (and other currencies).   Not that long ago, it was about 2 US dollars to 1 pound sterling.  It is sitting at 1.24 to 1 right now.

If you ever do want to visit the UK, now is the time (or at least a few months from now).  Airfares to the UK have gone way down and at least for us Americans, once in the UK everything cost about half as much as it did only a few years ago (brexit is the main reason, but there are other reasons too).  I just booked a really nice hotel in downtown London for $92.   Pre Brexit I would just stay in a hostel because most hotels started around the $200.   I don't know why, but hotel prices have dropped even more than the pound sterling.  

Supposedly after Brexit does happen, airfares might go back up because the UK will lose its affiliation with the US-EU open skies agreement, but the agreement is still in place and airfares to the UK are currently really low.  I was going to us my travel rewards (from my employer) to book a free flight to London, but the airfare Colorado to London was only $345 round trip so I thought I'd might as well just pay for the ticket and save my travel reward.  

Edited July 27, 2019 by Scott

[anatess2]

8 hours ago, Scott said:

In my eyes, Brexit is really none of our business, but we might as well take advantage of it.

I have to go to London in a few months and have noticed that hotel and even airfare prices (and of course all other prices) are only about half what they were before the vote on Brexit.   Not that I wish that on anyone's currency, but Brexit has really crashed the pound sterling agaist the US dollar (and other currencies).   Not that long ago, it was about 2 US dollars to 1 pound sterling.  It is sitting at 1.24 to 1 right now.

If you ever do want to visit the UK, now is the time (or at least a few months from now).  Airfares to the UK have gone way down and at least for us Americans, once in the UK everything cost about half as much as it did only a few years ago (brexit is the main reason, but there are other reasons too).  I just booked a really nice hotel in downtown London for $92.   Pre Brexit I would just stay in a hostel because most hotels started around the $200.   I don't know why, but hotel prices have dropped even more than the pound sterling.  

Supposedly after Brexit does happen, airfares might go back up because the UK will lose its affiliation with the US-EU open skies agreement, but the agreement is still in place and airfares to the UK are currently really low.  I was going to us my travel rewards (from my employer) to book a free flight to London, but the airfare Colorado to London was only $345 round trip so I thought I'd might as well just pay for the ticket and save my travel reward.  

This reasoning is not accurate.

My job involves mostly EUR, GBP, and USD currencies.  The trend for both EUR and GBP are the same against USD as follows:

USD continuously dropped in value after the 2000 Tech Bubble culminating in the lowest USD value in 2008 headed towards the Mortgage Bubble (which is why the US govt bailed out the banks).  So, around 2007/2008, EUR and GBP were very high compared to the ailing USD - with GBP at 2 to 1 and EUR at 1.5 to 1.

The Mortgage Bubble burst worldwide which caused EUR and GBP to drop in value faster than USD that got bailed out by the govt and continued to get infused with more bailouts all through the 2010’s.  That’s when EUR and GBP started to lose value against USD.

Brexit has not much to do with the closing gap between GBP and USD in the same manner that Duterte’s election has not much to do with the dropping PHP as his opponents like to propagandize.  Trump’s economy has made USD very valuable causing MOST CURRENCIES WORLDWIDE including EUR to drop in value against the USD around the time of the Brexit vote which is also the time of the Trump vote.  I love it because I earn USD and can get 50 to 1 buying power in the Philippines. The only reason USD is not shooting up like a rocket is because the Fed Reserve is choking the rise with increased interest rates to curb inflation.

Edited July 28, 2019 by anatess2

[Guest Scott]

1 hour ago, anatess2 said:

This reasoning is not accurate.

My job involves mostly EUR, GBP, and USD currencies.  The trend for both EUR and GBP are the same against USD as follows:

USD continuously dropped in value after the 2000 Tech Bubble culminating in the lowest USD value in 2008 headed towards the Mortgage Bubble (which is why the US govt bailed out the banks).  So, around 2007/2008, EUR and GBP were very high compared to the ailing USD - with GBP at 2 to 1 and EUR at 1.5 to 1.

The Mortgage Bubble burst worldwide which caused EUR and GBP to drop in value faster than USD that got bailed out by the govt and continued to get infused with more bailouts all through the 2010’s.  That’s when EUR and GBP started to lose value against USD.

Brexit has not much to do with the closing gap between GBP and USD in the same manner that Duterte’s election has not much to do with the dropping PHP as his opponents like to propagandize.  Trump’s economy has made USD very valuable causing MOST CURRENCIES WORLDWIDE including EUR to drop in value against the USD around the time of the Brexit vote which is also the time of the Trump vote.  I love it because I earn USD and can get 50 to 1 buying power in the Philippines. The only reason USD is not shooting up like a rocket is because the Fed Reserve is choking the rise with increased interest rates to curb inflation.

Sure there are other factors (including the strong US dollar), but brexit certainly did affect the exchange rates concerning the pound sterling.  The pound sterling lost value against all (or most?) hard currencies, including the Euro.  It wasn't only the US dollar.  After the vote on brexit, the pound sterling lost approximately lost approximately 20% against the Euro and has been more or less steady since then.  The only time the pound sterling has been weaker against the Euro is during the mortgage bubble burst.  

[Texan]

10 hours ago, Scott said:

Sure there are other factors (including the strong US dollar), but brexit certainly did affect the exchange rates concerning the pound sterling.  The pound sterling lost value against all (or most?) hard currencies, including the Euro.  It wasn't only the US dollar.  After the vote on brexit, the pound sterling lost approximately lost approximately 20% against the Euro and has been more or less steady since then.  The only time the pound sterling has been weaker against the Euro is during the mortgage bubble burst.  

Like the peace of God, the forces that move world currencies surpass my understanding, although I've noticed that the U.S. dollar, foreign currencies, and the price of gold seem to be in this weird love triangle that can be jostled by U.S. interest rates.  

When I was a teenager I lived in a small city in a farming area, where I worked as a janitor-gofer at the largest bank in town.  The president of the local college, who had a Ph.D. in literature and was widely regarded as "the most intelligent man" within a 100-mile radius ("although that ain't saying much," as the locals boasted), thought he had cracked the code of currency fluctuations.  One day he stormed into the bank and ordered $25,000 in Swiss francs, to be physically shipped from God-knew-where and stored in the back of his safe deposit box.  That set the tellers' tongues a-waggin' on a scale you would not believe, and the news even reached down into the lower basement, where I was probably cleaning microfilm readers or burning old receipts.

I just looked it up on the government's handy inflation calculator, and $25,000 from that year would over $100,000 in 2019 dollars. 

Within days, the college president's "investment" had lost 4% of its value, and by the time he finally cashed out he had lost almost half his money.  Evidently the 1970s were not the glory years of the Swiss franc.

This taught me three great lessons:

1. Smart people learn from their mistakes, but smarter people can skip the pain by learning from the mistakes of others.

2. People who know a lot about something often fall into the trap of thinking they know a lot about everything.

3. Do not speculate in foreign currencies.

But I think @Scott's original post was interesting and useful.  I'm always looking for ways to save money when I travel to Europe, and I didn't know that prices in the U.K. were attractive right now.  And I've actually flown to Europe through Colorado to save money, but a better exchange rate will save me time, LOL.

[KScience]

Scott the pound crashed way before the brexit vote. We have made a better recovery than just about all parts of Europe.   Germany and France were always going to make the split acrimonious as they will be left to foot our portion of the bill, supporting the rest of Europe (Greece, Italy, Spain should all be on your list of places to visit if you want more bang for your buck as their economies are being propped up/failing) and our exit sets precedent for any other countries looking to leave, so we were always going to get treated as harshly as they could possibly make it.

The real effect on the economy won't be felt for a little while yet, as Europe had suspected another referendum resulting in staying would be an easier path for a Prime Minister and we had made no obvious contingency for actually leaving without a deal. 

When Boris takes us out on the 31st Oct there will be financial carnage.....come visit then and bring your $$$$$  

Edited July 31, 2019 by KScience
SPAG

[Guest Scott]

46 minutes ago, KScience said:

Scott the pound crashed way before the brexit vote.

It is true that there the pound was in decline against the US dollar, but there was a definite crash after the vote.  While the pound recovered breifly gainst the dollar before dropping down again, it has been more steady against the Euro, but you can see a definate crash.  

I have annotated the following graphs with an arrow pointing to the Brexit vote.

 

[Guest Mores]

1 hour ago, Scott said:

It is true that there the pound was in decline against the US dollar, but there was a definite crash after the vote.  While the pound recovered breifly gainst the dollar before dropping down again, it has been more steady against the Euro, but you can see a definate crash.  

Maybe I missed some portion of the history of the conversation, but I'm not really sure what point you're trying to make here.

Any time a great change of uncertainty happens, there will be a drop in the market.  Why wouldn't it have crashed?  Besides, based on market analysis it seems to be more of a correction for an anomalous high, rather than a real sign of weakness.  For a while the Euro and the GBP were paralleling each other.  Prior to the vote, the GBP had separated from the EUR for about two years (artificial high).  After the crash, the GBP paralleled the EUR for a while with only minor departures.  Seems like a correction to me.

So, was your point that the crash indicates that Brexit was a bad decision?  Why?

Edited July 31, 2019 by Mores

[Guest Mores]

On 7/27/2019 at 12:40 AM, lonetree said:

I guess he had little choice, but Boris has 'hit the ground running'. After gathering his cabinet together, his performance against the charges of the opposition's chief sj blather-er is not only inspiring but entertaining(July 25, see the 2hr 17 min. mark).

 

I've seen some videos of sessions of Parliament before.  But I've never seen anything as animated as this video.  Quite extraordinary.  I really enjoyed it.  That Boris Johnson is very clear and level-headed.  Really quick on his feet and quick with his tongue.  Yeah, I can see why they compare him with Trump.

Good show!  Good show, I say!!!

Edited July 31, 2019 by Mores

[Vort]

Note also that the graphs are deceptive to the careless viewer, because the x-axis is not at y=0. Thus we are seeing a 25% loss looking like it's a 95% loss. (The percentages along the right are a better indicator of what's going on.)

[Guest Scott]

46 minutes ago, Mores said:

Maybe I missed some portion of the history of the conversation, but I'm not really sure what point you're trying to make here.

No.   Go back and read my original post.   My point was that it is a good time to travel to England right now and although Brexit is none of our business, we might as well take advantage of the favorable drop in cost of visiting there.   

Quote

So, was your point that the crash indicates that Brexit was a bad decision?  Why?

No, in fact I think brexit is none of our business as to whether or not it was a good or bad decision.   That's not for us to decide.     

Edited July 31, 2019 by Scott

[Guest Mores]

Just now, Scott said:

No.   Go back and read my post.   My point was that it is a good time to travel to England right now and although Brexit is none of our business, we might as well take advantage of the favorable drop in cost of visiting there.   

No, in fact I think brexit is none of our business as to whether or not it was a good or bad decision.   That's not for us to decide.     

Ah, gotcha.  Thanks.

[KScience]

Scott you would need to show a much longer time scale to make a fair comparison and call it a "crash" (compared to 87, 98, 2008) the scale on Y axis does not indicate such a large decline. 

Mores you need to watch more Parliament on a Thursday, Prime Minister's Questions are always lively and full of banter.  Its one of the reasons that females have historically been put off becoming MP's.  Not terribly productive but entertaining.

 

 

[NeuroTypical]

Love the videos.

When it comes to looking at currency exchange rates, I'm just happy to take advantage of them when in my favor, and I don't much care why it happens.

[Texan]

2 hours ago, KScience said:

Mores you need to watch more Parliament on a Thursday, Prime Minister's Questions are always lively and full of banter.  Its one of the reasons that females have historically been put off becoming MP's.  Not terribly productive but entertaining.

I agree, but I thought Questions to the Prime Minister were on Wednesdays?  Actually, I enjoy listening to Jacob Rees-Mogg more than Boris Johnson.  The man's words could cut you to pieces and you wouldn't even bleed.