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Mores

Worst Case Scenario: NATO?

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I was just considering the recent "mean girls" talk and subsequent exit by Trump.

https://americanmilitarynews.com/2019/12/trump-leaves-nato-summit-early-calls-trudeau-two-faced/

I'm not predicting anything.  But a flash of a worst case scenario came to my mind that Trump may actually initiate the dissolution of NATO.  That would be a MAJOR HORRIBLE AWFUL NO GOOD LOUSY path to go down.

On the other hand... could it be necessary?

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Worst case scenario:

European leaders, believing their own corrupt media and drunk on the idea of being the Heroic Resistance, unilaterally declare war on the evil Donald Trump and the corrupt United States of America who elected him. Forty million die in the initial nuclear attacks on major US cities (ironically enough, primarily Democrats). The US launches an immediate counterstrike, devastating millennia-old European cities and killing upward of 50 million. As the sudden European strike evolves into a protracted war, Russia joins the European side. The Arab countries largely stay out, but support America. To the amazement of most Americans, China allies itself with America. It soon becomes clear why China has done this, as Russian troops begin the invasion of the Chinese border, seeking this excuse to establish Russia as the sole major Asian power. India, tired of being left unrecognized as always, declares war on Russia, China, and for good measure, Pakistan (like no one saw that coming). Hostilities break out among the Mesoamerican countries. Cuba is overrun by US troops and mostly reduced to rubble. Seattle, one of the few major US metropolitan areas to escape nuking, is devastated by a series of very large harbor bombs that cause damage as far away as Lake Washington. The bombs were planted on Chinese ships, threatening the US-China alliance, but word leaks out from unreliable sources that North Korea was actually responsible. The US nukes Pyongyang and kills over 10 million North Koreans, most of whom had no real idea what was going on anyway. The southern African nations unite against the North African Muslim and European countries, an alliance that endures for most of a week, until Zimbabwe ambushes South Africa and the whole thing degenerates into high-tech tribal warfare. Australia, congratulating itself on staying out of the carnage, is caught completely pants-down when New Zealand launches the later-to-be-infamous Kiwi Invasion , watching in amazement as their longtime cultural punching bag wreaks its horrible revenge. As the world falls into an indescribable catastrophe, US unemployment passes 10% (because most of the major corporate employers have been destroyed). This is the signal for the Democrats to decry Trump's bungling of economic issues, for which they start new impeachment hearings.

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1 hour ago, Vort said:

Worst case scenario:

European leaders, believing their own corrupt media and drunk on the idea of being the Heroic Resistance, unilaterally declare war on the evil Donald Trump and the corrupt United States of America who elected him. Forty million die in the initial nuclear attacks on major US cities (ironically enough, primarily Democrats). The US launches an immediate counterstrike, devastating millennia-old European cities and killing upward of 50 million. As the sudden European strike evolves into a protracted war, Russia joins the European side. The Arab countries largely stay out, but support America. To the amazement of most Americans, China allies itself with America. It soon becomes clear why China has done this, as Russian troops begin the invasion of the Chinese border, seeking this excuse to establish Russia as the sole major Asian power. India, tired of being left unrecognized as always, declares war on Russia, China, and for good measure, Pakistan (like no one saw that coming). Hostilities break out among the Mesoamerican countries. Cuba is overrun by US troops and mostly reduced to rubble. Seattle, one of the few major US metropolitan areas to escape nuking, is devastated by a series of very large harbor bombs that cause damage as far away as Lake Washington. The bombs were planted on Chinese ships, threatening the US-China alliance, but word leaks out from unreliable sources that North Korea was actually responsible. The US nukes Pyongyang and kills over 10 million North Koreans, most of whom had no real idea what was going on anyway. The southern African nations unite against the North African Muslim and European countries, an alliance that endures for most of a week, until Zimbabwe ambushes South Africa and the whole thing degenerates into high-tech tribal warfare. Australia, congratulating itself on staying out of the carnage, is caught completely pants-down when New Zealand launches the later-to-be-infamous Kiwi Invasion , watching in amazement as their longtime cultural punching bag wreaks its horrible revenge. As the world falls into an indescribable catastrophe, US unemployment passes 10% (because most of the major corporate employers have been destroyed). This is the signal for the Democrats to decry Trump's bungling of economic issues, for which they start new impeachment hearings.

Ehhrrrmmm...  It's pretty cold up there in Seattle this time of year, isn't it? :rolleyes:

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2 minutes ago, Mores said:

Ehhrrrmmm...  It's pretty cold up there in Seattle this time of year, isn't it? :rolleyes:

...what to do, what to do, ho hum, what to do...

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Just to be clear, I was saying that "for this one item of concern" a worst case scenario result "from the current activities related to said item of concern" might be the dissolution of NATO.

One of the big things about NATO is that it has been falling apart anyway. Other nations are simply not living up to their end of the bargain.  It seems that the NATO leadership exists only to siphon off US funds to build their mansions in Europe. Oh, and if, uh, there happens to be any kind of, Idunnno, fighting of some sort, they'll just cheer on the US who does all the fighting for NATO anyway.

So, it could be very easy for an "America First" mentality to simply say,"They never do anything for us anyway.  Be done with them."

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4 minutes ago, Mores said:

Just to be clear, I was saying that "for this one item of concern" a worst case scenario result "from the current activities related to said item of concern" might be the dissolution of NATO.

One of the big things about NATO is that it has been falling apart anyway. Other nations are simply not living up to their end of the bargain.  It seems that the NATO leadership exists only to siphon off US funds to build their mansions in Europe. Oh, and if, uh, there happens to be any kind of, Idunnno, fighting of some sort, they'll just cheer on the US who does all the fighting for NATO anyway.

So, it could be very easy for an "America First" mentality to simply say,"They never do anything for us anyway.  Be done with them."

In many ways, I am a Europhile (cultural, not political). As human beings, Europeans have infinite intrinsic value, of course; but I think Europe as an entity has very significant value and is worth preserving. However, the idea that the US is Europe's military defense sugar daddy is untenable, and especially galling when Europeans are grumbling about US interventionism.

I would not like to see NATO go away. But I would very much like to see the non-US NATO countries accept more responsibility, financial and otherwise, for the security of NATO countries than they presently do. if it takes threatening to withdraw from NATO for that to happen, maybe that's what needs to happen.

The worst-case scenario is, of course, that everything falls to pieces, nations crumble, millions die, and Satan laughs. But if things keep going the way they have been going, that might happen in any case. Salvation lies in repentance, and only in repentance. In this case, repentance includes shouldering responsibility for one's own needs and cooperating in full faith with one's allies.

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Seems to me like when the going gets tough, when NATO is with us it still doesn’t really do anything for us that we can’t do for ourselves.  And when NATO isn’t with us, that news just aids and abets our enemies at home and abroad.  

And though I’m not much of a military buff, I’m not convinced Western Europe faces any single foreign power that is scheming to and, but for US assistance, actually can use military force to overthrow (what little remains of) western Europe’s liberty.

I’m still a reluctant interventionist foreign-policy-wise, but I’m inclined to think NATO has outlived its usefulness.

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Where to start?  I joined the military thinking that I would learn something about fighting in and winning a war.  Winston Churchill once said something like, "There are worse thing than war and they all come from loosing one."  In a discussion with my brother that was also in the military during Vietnam he wisely said, "No one wins a war, but one side will loose a lot more than the other."

I never saw combat in Vietnam but I did receive orders that would take me into combat and I spent a long night in prayer.  I made a choice and determined to take lives if circumstance became such.  I am grateful the circumstance never came.  My military experience changed me more than any other single experience.  I use to love hunting.  It was my single most favorite activity.  There is an excitement and rush in hunting and even in target practice.  There is an art to using weapons and I mastered as many as I could.  Swords, slings, bow and arrows, and axes are especially fun for me.  However, having been in the military - I think I have become more anti-nephi-lehite than Moroni.   I would rather be killed by another human than to have to kill someone.  From time to time I will think to use a weapon in fun - target practice.  But I am so drawn into it - into the excitement that I have learned to just stay away and tell friends a family a lie - that I do not enjoy it when the reality is that I do; way to much.

Why do I bring this up?  Why am I telling the forum of my experience?  The reason is that so often when we talk about things like NATO and worse case (war) we do so with great disconnect thinking that we will avoid the consequences.   We think ourselves so smart, so righteous or so something that we think we are safe - that we are innocent and justice will not allow that we, our friends or family to suffer - or if we do that it will not be so much or so difficult to bear.  So then, it is fun to speculate.  We are so easily taken in for the fun of it. For well over a thousand years Europe has not learned a single lesson about getting along with each other for more than a generation.  Though I do have my personal opinions - it is obvious to me that the two extremes (hawk or dove) are 100% ineffective in preventing a war and are in effect the two greatest engines to guarantee war and the more extreme it is for ether the more devastating the war will be for everybody - not just in cost and physical losses but much more to the spiritual well being of humanity.

I am convinced that - especially concerning war - that we are at the mercy of G-d and that if we look first to anything else other than G-d to protect us - we will loose more than we thought we had.  I do not know what the future will bring - but I am most concerned about Europe.  Traditional Christianity have failed Europe - I know @anatess2 @prisonchaplain and many others will likely disagree - but in the last 1,000 years Traditional Christians have chosen badly in questions of liberty, freedoms and peace in Christ throughout Europe and have been engines of war and oppression rather than peace - so much so that for the most part Europe has become secular and rejected G-d.  And the last two great wars of Europe have spiritually ruined that continent.   But on the other hand - peace and prosperity is turning the USA into a greedy secular society even more full of hate in the slightest disagreement.   And I am just trying to avoid getting caught up in any of it.

 

The Traveler

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@Traveler, mark this post.

I am going to predict that regardless of whether or not Trump manages to dismantle the deep state, his Presidency will become the template for a shift in western ideals of warfare - where war is won not by putting soldiers for pawns but through economic arsenal as the pawns and soldiers merely the structure that provides the foundation from which economic warfare stands.

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3 hours ago, anatess2 said:

@Traveler, mark this post.

I am going to predict that regardless of whether or not Trump manages to dismantle the deep state, his Presidency will become the template for a shift in western ideals of warfare - where war is won not by putting soldiers for pawns but through economic arsenal as the pawns and soldiers merely the structure that provides the foundation from which economic warfare stands.

Historically, economic arsenals have started more wars than they have prevented.  It can be said that the revolutionary war that established the USA was ignited by steps being taken by the king of England to economically isolate and control the British subjects in the Americas.  The war that took down the Danish control of the Baltic sea was ignited by taxes on trade coming into and out of the Baltic Sea.  The ancient empire of Babylon was established through the control of trade.

I will make a prediction.  We will see violence increase and Israel continue to be isolated in the Mid East.  Canada voting in the UN to establish a Palestinian state and declare Israel as an occupying power is the first step in breaking the western alliances that will eventually bring about the final conflict between good and evil.

 

The Traveler

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14 hours ago, Traveler said:

Historically, economic arsenals have started more wars than they have prevented.  It can be said that the revolutionary war that established the USA was ignited by steps being taken by the king of England to economically isolate and control the British subjects in the Americas.  The war that took down the Danish control of the Baltic sea was ignited by taxes on trade coming into and out of the Baltic Sea.  The ancient empire of Babylon was established through the control of trade.

None of this has anything to do with the economic defense strategies of Trump that brought North Korea to the peace table, got Mexico and other countries to stem the tide of illegal migrants on the southern border, got European alliances to put up for their own defense, balanced the power between Turkey and Kurds in Syrian Kurdistan, and checked the power of China... all without starting or escalating war.

 

14 hours ago, Traveler said:

I will make a prediction.  We will see violence increase and Israel continue to be isolated in the Mid East.  Canada voting in the UN to establish a Palestinian state and declare Israel as an occupying power is the first step in breaking the western alliances that will eventually bring about the final conflict between good and evil.

 

The Traveler

Good and evil will not be fought as Israel vs Palestine.  Good and evil is being fought right now as we speak and has been for a decade in the unstemmed cultural migration across all of the Christian nations of Europe.

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2 hours ago, anatess2 said:

None of this has anything to do with the economic defense strategies of Trump that brought North Korea to the peace table, got Mexico and other countries to stem the tide of illegal migrants on the southern border, got European alliances to put up for their own defense, balanced the power between Turkey and Kurds in Syrian Kurdistan, and checked the power of China... all without starting or escalating war.

Some thoughts - North Korea is not at the peace table any more now than what has appeared to be in over 60 years.  My understanding of North Korea is that they only respond to force and conflict - thinking they are considering peace is an illusion similar to the illusion that appear in the Book of Mormon and those that thought the leaders of Secret Combinations (Gadianton Robbers) will negotiate peace. 

That economic control at our Mexican border is under some control - is also an illusion.  The black market is alive and well at the US southern border.  The economics of illegal migrants is being replaced by a preponderance of so many other things. 

Quote

Good and evil will not be fought as Israel vs Palestine.  Good and evil is being fought right now as we speak and has been for a decade in the unstemmed cultural migration across all of the Christian nations of Europe.

Historically Christians in Europe have treated other Europeans (as well as themselves) worse than the cultural shift that what is currently going on in Europe.  All aside - it is my understanding that the final conflict between good and evil prior to or at the coming of Christ will be at Jerusalem. 

 

The Traveler

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2 hours ago, Traveler said:

Some thoughts - North Korea is not at the peace table any more now than what has appeared to be in over 60 years.  My understanding of North Korea is that they only respond to force and conflict - thinking they are considering peace is an illusion similar to the illusion that appear in the Book of Mormon and those that thought the leaders of Secret Combinations (Gadianton Robbers) will negotiate peace. 

Incorrect.  China lost its tail and so it can't wag it.  You simply refuse to give credit to the foreign policy that effected this uncoupling such that maximum pressure continues to be applied to China and North Korea remains at peace.

 

2 hours ago, Traveler said:

That economic control at our Mexican border is under some control - is also an illusion.  The black market is alive and well at the US southern border.  The economics of illegal migrants is being replaced by a preponderance of so many other things. 

Yeah?  Like what?

 

2 hours ago, Traveler said:

Historically Christians in Europe have treated other Europeans (as well as themselves) worse than the cultural shift that what is currently going on in Europe.  All aside - it is my understanding that the final conflict between good and evil prior to or at the coming of Christ will be at Jerusalem. 

 

The Traveler

REALLY?  You've jumped the shark dude.

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On 12/10/2019 at 12:55 PM, anatess2 said:

Incorrect.  China lost its tail and so it can't wag it.  You simply refuse to give credit to the foreign policy that effected this uncoupling such that maximum pressure continues to be applied to China and North Korea remains at peace.

I was talking about North Korea - and I am inserting that nothing has changed under Trump.  North Korea has not given any concessions but has benefited.  Their legal trade has never been able to support their economy - it is their illegal black market and weapon deals that drives their economy - and that remains as robust as ever.

Quote

Yeah?  Like what?

Like weapons flowing into Mexico - I am not talking about hand guns but rather military grade 50 caliber machine guns, rockets, grenades and other portable heavy weapons.  Also in Mexico all raw and refined petroleum are owned by the government.  However, a large percentage of raw and refined petroleum is being stolen by the cartels and being sold on the international black market - the #1 customer of that black market petroleum is the USA market.  I was told by an individual involved in international trade that the revenues obtained from black market petroleum exceeds both drugs and human trafficking.

Quote

REALLY?  You've jumped the shark dude.

Must I reference such things directly - Charlemagne murdered more women and children in his scourged earth policy to convert northern Europe to Christianity - for which he was given the title of "defender of the faith".  During the French Revolution French Kings were  fully supported by the Catholic Church while they were slathering women and children of his opposition.  Tyndale was burned at the stake for translating the Bible into English.  (do I need to continue?)

 

The Traveler

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On 12/16/2019 at 12:24 PM, Traveler said:

I was talking about North Korea - and I am inserting that nothing has changed under Trump.  North Korea has not given any concessions but has benefited.  Their legal trade has never been able to support their economy - it is their illegal black market and weapon deals that drives their economy - and that remains as robust as ever.

I'm talking about North Korea too and it's very telling that you keep on ignoring why exactly North Korea - a country America can stomp on in under 4 hours if it wants to if it is just simply North Korea - has the power to threaten the pacific theater.

And it is hilarious that you think the North Korean economy is propped up by illegal black market and weapon deals... seriously, dude?  The Wong has kept pace with the dollar even as other Asian currencies dropped.  Black market does not keep currencies afloat!  The Wong has kept pace because of a very simple principle - the millennial Kim, unlike his father before him, has managed to make 70% of his economy market-based!  Even their fully communist-ruled farmers have been allowed to take profit from their agriculture if they managed to produce surplus.  Therefore, even with the tighter sanctions and the de-coupling of the Chinese market, North Koreans have not felt it as much as the west - especially Trump who sits at the other end of that negotiating table - expects.

The negotiation continues.  These things do not get resolved overnight!  Especially not with the chains put on Trump with his own people telling foreign leaders to ignore Trump's foreign policy while doing their best to get him out of office as soon as possible.

But to say there is no marked improvement on North Korea is either putting blindsiders on or are simply ignorant of the geopolitics of the area.  North Korea is not THE threat to America - CHINA IS.  China has managed to wag North Korea everytime it wants something.  But what do we have now?  Chinese-US trade deals just reached phase one Chinese concession without Kim Jong Un threatening to nuke Guam.

 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, anatess2 said:

I'm talking about North Korea too and it's very telling that you keep on ignoring why exactly North Korea - a country America can stomp on in under 4 hours if it wants to if it is just simply North Korea - has the power to threaten the pacific theater.

And it is hilarious that you think the North Korean economy is propped up by illegal black market and weapon deals... seriously, dude?  The Wong has kept pace with the dollar even as other Asian currencies dropped.  Black market does not keep currencies afloat!  The Wong has kept pace because of a very simple principle - the millennial Kim, unlike his father before him, has managed to make 70% of his economy market-based!  Even their fully communist-ruled farmers have been allowed to take profit from their agriculture if they managed to produce surplus.  Therefore, even with the tighter sanctions and the de-coupling of the Chinese market, North Koreans have not felt it as much as the west - especially Trump who sits at the other end of that negotiating table - expects.

The negotiation continues.  These things do not get resolved overnight!  Especially not with the chains put on Trump with his own people telling foreign leaders to ignore Trump's foreign policy while doing their best to get him out of office as soon as possible.

But to say there is no marked improvement on North Korea is either putting blindsiders on or are simply ignorant of the geopolitics of the area.  North Korea is not THE threat to America - CHINA IS.  China has managed to wag North Korea everytime it wants something.  But what do we have now?  Chinese-US trade deals just reached phase one Chinese concession without Kim Jong Un threatening to nuke Guam.

 

 

 

You should research this a little.  Even Wikipedia knows what is going on:

Quote

The alleged illicit activities of the North Korean state include manufacture and sale of illegal drugs, the manufacture and sale of counterfeit consumer goods, human trafficking, arms trafficking, wildlife trafficking, counterfeiting currency (especially the United States dollar and Chinese yuan), terrorism, and other areas.[1][2][3] It is alleged many of these activities are undertaken at the direction and under the control of, the North Korean government and the ruling Workers' Party of Korea, with their proceeds going towards advancing the country's nuclear and conventional arms production, funding the lifestyles of the country's elite, and propping up the North Korean economy.[4]

Please note the bold type - which you say is not happening - just so you know I am not making this up.

 

The Traveler

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27 minutes ago, Traveler said:

You should research this a little.  Even Wikipedia knows what is going on:

Please note the bold type - which you say is not happening - just so you know I am not making this up.

 

The Traveler

Wikipedia... that is funny.

Illegal market has been there for ages - EVERYWHERE.  But Illegal Market does not feed a country's people nor keep currencies afloat.  Illegal market benefits the... black market traders.

Now, if you're going to posit that the problem with North Korea is Black Market... then sure.  That problem is not going away anytime soon.  But to say that North Korea's threat to the region remains unresolved because its Black Market is thriving is silly. 

Here.  Research this:  https://www.wsj.com/articles/sanctions-were-supposed-to-cripple-north-koreas-economy-theyre-not-working-11551116032

Edited by anatess2

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1 hour ago, anatess2 said:

Wikipedia... that is funny.

Illegal market has been there for ages - EVERYWHERE.  But Illegal Market does not feed a country's people nor keep currencies afloat.  Illegal market benefits the... black market traders.

Now, if you're going to posit that the problem with North Korea is Black Market... then sure.  That problem is not going away anytime soon.  But to say that North Korea's threat to the region remains unresolved because its Black Market is thriving is silly. 

Here.  Research this:  https://www.wsj.com/articles/sanctions-were-supposed-to-cripple-north-koreas-economy-theyre-not-working-11551116032

Okay, now I am confused.  Did you say that Trump's policies are making a difference in North Korea and bringing them to the bargaining table with new openness?  I said that Nothing has changed in North Korea and that despite all the sanctions - their economy is doing as well now as it ever has.  It was me that said Trump's policies are not working and now you have provided a link to an article saying what I said.  Unfortunately subscription is required to read the full article.

Here is a link to a Reuters's article https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-change-insight/north-koreas-black-market-becoming-the-new-normal-idUSKCN0SN00320151029

pay particular attention to the paragraph following the heading CASH CARDS.  This is because of the North Korean bank that has been sanctioned for financing nuclear development and their war machine is now flourishing and a major contributor to North Korea economy. 

The point is - North Korea is doing just fine - perhaps better than ever.  And where are all the USA dollars coming from that is being used in the black market in preference to the countries currency.

 

The Traveler

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33 minutes ago, Traveler said:

Okay, now I am confused.  Did you say that Trump's policies are making a difference in North Korea and bringing them to the bargaining table with new openness?  I said that Nothing has changed in North Korea and that despite all the sanctions - their economy is doing as well now as it ever has.  It was me that said Trump's policies are not working and now you have provided a link to an article saying what I said.  Unfortunately subscription is required to read the full article.

Here is a link to a Reuters's article https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-change-insight/north-koreas-black-market-becoming-the-new-normal-idUSKCN0SN00320151029

pay particular attention to the paragraph following the heading CASH CARDS.  This is because of the North Korean bank that has been sanctioned for financing nuclear development and their war machine is now flourishing and a major contributor to North Korea economy. 

The point is - North Korea is doing just fine - perhaps better than ever.  And where are all the USA dollars coming from that is being used in the black market in preference to the countries currency.

 

The Traveler

North Korea is "doing just fine"... uhm, yes.   What was your expectation?  That the US is putting sanctions on North Korea so that all the North Koreans are going to be more miserable than they already are?  That's what you would call a success?

The objective is 1.)  Denuclearize DPRK, 2.) Unfang Kim, 3.) Weaken China in the negotiation table.  The state of the Black Market does not have significant bearing to the successes/failures of any of these.  Making North Koreans starve is not an objective.

2 and 3 are doing great.  1 - that's not gonna happen within one term of a US Administration.  Trump may have hoped Kim would denuclearized within one negotiation meeting - but "nobody" who voted for Trump expected him to do so within just 3 years regardless of how many negotiation talks happen within those 3 years.  

The objective of the sanctions is to make Kim miserable, not the North Koreans.  Kim is not miserable, sure... but he became not miserable by becoming quite the capitalist!  THAT's a significant improvement even as it is not a direct objective.  Trump tried to use this shift to entice Kim to open DPRK to the world market in exchange to getting rid of his nukes.  That negotiation is still ongoing.  In any case - Kim has not made any significant threats in the pacific theater regardless of the squeeze the Chinese (and even Russia vis-a-vis Syria) are getting and the negotiations with China are going the way of the US without any military threats anywhere in the pacific theater.  If you don't call that a huge improvement in the region to which North Korea is the most significant vocal threat, I have no idea what exactly it is you think is an improvement.  The geopolitics of North Korea is not a single-country issue and never has been.

Edited by anatess2

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On 12/20/2019 at 12:58 PM, anatess2 said:

North Korea is "doing just fine"... uhm, yes.   What was your expectation?  That the US is putting sanctions on North Korea so that all the North Koreans are going to be more miserable than they already are?  That's what you would call a success?

 

I would find our sanctions a success if North Korea found it more difficult to obtain (import) certain items (including raw materials) necessary to maintain their military based society.  Especially rare earth materials necessary for high tech manufacturing.   

 

The Traveler

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On 12/23/2019 at 10:55 AM, Traveler said:

I would find our sanctions a success if North Korea found it more difficult to obtain (import) certain items (including raw materials) necessary to maintain their military based society.  Especially rare earth materials necessary for high tech manufacturing.   

 

The Traveler

Uhm... DPRK is chock full of rare earth metals in their own ground. 

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